Hello china central bank!There is two posible short position with high probability zones created by china central bank.
don't forget to do risk free and trailing stop.
CNHUSD trade ideas
USDCNH: Double bottom completion hints further upsideOn Friday, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February improved to a 13-month high at 66.4, beating market consensus of 65 and previous month data at 64.9. The dollar-bullish data release boosted the greenback against major currencies like the Euro, British Pound, Aussie dollar, Japanese yen and more.
Moving our attention to the US Dollar/Offshore Chinese yuan (USDCNH) pair, the downbeat Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for January performed below market expectations, exerting pressure on the yuan. Looking at the daily chart, a completion of double bottom gives us an upside technical target around 6.903 (R2). Double bottom neckline around 6.812 (S1) should provide support in the event of a retracement lower.
Higher low on USD/CNH hints at countertrend bounceYield differentials between the US and China 2-year treasury note continue to suggest USD/CNH could be oversold, at least over the near-term. The daily close chart (above in black) also better shows the potential for a higher low, as part of a countertrend move.
The daily candlestick chart shows a recent pullback has failed to retest the 6.6976 low, and yesterday formed a 2-bar bullish reversal pattern (bullish piercing line). Whilst prices remain within a small retracement channel, we’re now looking for a break higher and minimum move to the highs around 0.6800 (near the monthly pivot point, 100% projection and recent highs).
Should it break higher, then the it has the potential to extend to the 138.2% or 161.8% projection levels, the latter of which is by the 200-day EMA.
Further out, I doubt Beijing will want their currency to depreciate too much given weak export data, so its possible the anticipated move higher is simply a countertrend move which could later break to new cycle lows.
Usd chinese yuan bounce or break?The resistance x floor is so much, but will it hold and bounce up for the long?
USDCNH might be going lower for the SHORT termprice is rejecting of the 4H resistance / support zone.
Usd chinese yuanThere is still place for a short as the floor is far off. But note to put your to before the floor and secure a safe positive gain stop loss or scale down if you want to see if it doesnt bounce.
The prudent way is either to put that take profit before the floor or to secure a positive stop loss and scale out your order to see if it is less risky.
USDCNH Consolidating Within DowntrendDespite nice drop on USDCNH since start of the year, we have seen silver mostly trading sideways. However, sooner or later correlated moves will be back, possibly after wave four rally n USDCNH. Nice resistance is near 6.84. Based on timing, next week should be important for a potential further weakness, when China fully reopens after holidays. Plus, its going to be a busy calendar with CB decisions and US jobs data.
GH
USDCNH to 6.66? 😈Please 1st of all click the boost 🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free.
After a long run up...
the USDCNH probably found the top for a while. Price formed Head and Shoulders 🤷and broke the Uptrendline and then also the Neckline @ 7.01, backtested it and got rejected. Also there is bear flag in play with target 6.686, we have just broken out of it's consolidation phase:
So in my eyes a downtrend has been established and I think there is chance for run to 6.66 .
STOPLOSS (SL) : Right Shoulder @ 7.26
TARGET (TP) : H&S target projection @ 6.66
INVALIDATION : when SL level hit
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⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
USDCNH USDCNH - Inverse H&S
Inverse H&S taking it towards 6.8000/6.90000 areas
A break above for further confirmation.
Smaller term we could go test 200 EMA - If we break below 6.7 expect to re-test of the lows.
Don't forget to trade your OWN plan!
Trade Journal
USDCNH LONG Flag patternHere are few points i am looking for this trade
1. Inverted head and shoulder pattern is formed
2. Price start to consolidate into the major resistant level (neckline)
3. Rising support in when price consolidating (buyer taking control )
4.Nice flag pattern for us to trade /weak pattern
5.We need to see a strong bull bar to entry this trade (momemtum bar)
6. Target (2 times flag pole )
Will Chinese yuan break the floor?At 4h, Yuan passed the floor price but hasnt closed below it. If 12 pips down it goes; we may have an intraday short.
USDCNH LongFrom my view on TF 1 H I think it's making triangle we will wait to confirm if the price break B-D we'll take long
Usd Chinese Yuan bouncingPRICE bouncing off the nearest monthly close. Covid policy x opening must be handled with care.
USDCNH Ascending TrianglePotentially a Reverse-Stall-Run play, the Stall part is an Ascending Triangle with a Sign of Strength (SOS) at the end.
USD Chinese Yuan shortWhy?
Week of Nov 22 2022 it breached the old low. From there it was lower lows and higher lows. This week it ended up as up phase, which means, next week may be an up phase week before it continues to the down phase.
USD Chinese Yuan trend downWhy?
1. Chart price left to right is down
2. More seller than buyer bars
3. Lower high and lower low
4. Price below ema 50 and 200
5. Price ended with a buyer bar but undecided
6. Because of news, price went up
7. For China yuan our main concern is the policies.
No signal
USDCNH 18/01/2023SAXO:USDCNH
USDHCNH plan 18 January 2023
Sell : 6.7700
SL : 6.78400
TP : 6.74200 (2R)
Reason :
1. Downtrend
2. EMA 200
3. M Pattern
4. Retest supply on the neckline
Trade recap: Making 3.4R from shorting the US-China DivergenceCapped this short at 3.4R using our strategy as we get significant DXY reversal heading into this week's US Retail Sales and Building Permits news. No trades for now as we patiently sit on our hands for the next signal (preferably non-USD for this week, at least).
$USDCNH long reasons for long:
-6.7 psychological level
-6.7 is also the target for the H&S
-decent R:R for me and my money management
-price accelerated to the down side before this potential reversal /
-diverging on multiple timeframes but not daily :(
-618 fib level
