Cocoa price is expected to fall I'm expecting cocoa price to fall to $3313.0 per ounces. Even though a short-term bull fluctuation move is valid for liquidity clearance, but shouldn't go above $3440.5 (forecast invalidation price).
COCOA trade ideas
$COCOA - Target HitUpdating earlier idea.
Target hit. Full stop. :)
REMEMBER: Drawing lines on chart means nothig if you do not command and employ sound risk management principles.
Cheers,
Tenacious Tribe - Quantified Trading Strategies
COCOA setting up for a correctionThe market rallied for a while. I expect the correction is just a matter of time.
My target around 3050, with expiry date for contract 10th August.
This is not a trading advice. Trading is risky, always to your own analysis.
$COCOA - TEXTBOOK SYMMETRIC TRIANGLE Just updating the subject idea. Back in 2022, this textbook symmetric triangle had caught my attention, for how neatly and ostensibly it was being displayed.
I find this pattern interesting because of how it moves from volatility to the lack of it, slowly expelling the traders who are preventing this market from moving where it wants to, until they are no longer participating and the price is free to break-out and move unburdened as it is moving at the moment.
Worth mentioning also that fake-out as pointed out by the green arrow, it shows us that there are some traders in this market with pockets deep enough to bid it down, just to trap the more unexperienced traders into selling this breakout and fueling the buy orders of the initial group, which then takes off with few or no more sellers to obstruct the rally.
Another note on this fakeout for future reference: wait for a successful retest to enter. Do you see that successful retest in this market? No, those nOv and Dec 2022 candles should have been bearish candlestick patterns or structural breakouts on the short side, created against the broker trendline and EMAs. Instead, they kept on piercing through and in Feb 2023, we received a definite trigger for a trade on the long side.
Finally, at this highlighted area, as the area from the massive sell off that preceded this pattern, erupted. The odds are more bears will be sitting in that range. The odds of bullish undisputed control in this market diminish substantially in that area.
Most importantly: hindsight and narration bias make you think that this outcome was 100% predictable. It was not. Price action and technical analysis is an excellent tool to guide us into discovering the path of least resistance, quantifying the markets and the patterns therein, however, at the end of the day, this is nothing but a probabilistic assessment. Reality is complex, anything can happen tomorrow, next week, next month ...
... what should that tell you as a trader? Manage risk, manage risk, manage risk, that's just, by far, your paramount remit as a trader.
Cheers,
Tenacious Tribe - Quantified Trading Strategies & Studies
COCOA forecast w/c 3 April 2023It looks like COCOA is setting up to cool off.
I'm not sure if it'll go lower than 20EMA - I consider this a low risk trade. I don't see the market going much higher without small correction first.
This is not a trading advice. Trading is risky. Always do your own analysis.
COCOA - At Accumulation and Ready to Break UpCOCOA as many other agriculture products are rising in value due to failed farming yields or public supply chain disruptions. Reward Risk setup is given and important key features like support, resistance, trendlines.
COCOA BULLISHThe market rally from 03 April 2017 to date is showing corrective properties taking a form of an ABC. The side ways move from 02 April 2018 to date has lasted 53 monthly bars taking the form of a contracting triangle. The market has tested the $2279.6 to $2186.9 price range three times Nov,2020, Jul 2021 and Sep 2022 giving clear indication of a strong support level at 0.618 fib level of Primary Wave A. The last candle formed in September is a PIN BAR, indicating early signs of a buying pressure. Wave C is forecasted to equal wave A @ $3380.6/share and $3223.8/share @ 1.382 reverse fib of the wave B. However the market remains the final arbiter and a close below the $2101.1/share will negate the bullish count.
Sell stop 2318 SL 2390 TP1 2250 TP2 2175Price turned down in accordance with Fast annual cycle and fixed cycle projection lines. For details, write a private message to get a reference to deep cycle analysis. Current decline is going to proceed till the end of Oct.
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CocoaHello dear traders
What is your analysis?
Will the resistance ahead be broken?
I think it touches the resistance and then enters the correction wave.
Please write your comments to get a good view.
Good luck
$EVZ and What to trade during DEAD MarketsSome say indicators do not work properly, 100% of them are using dumb indicators and trading dead markets at the same time. Be smart, Mk Lez got you. Forex Mondays
