COCOA short until 7,700, Gravestone showed on the daily chartCocoa Cash Contract forum
COCOA short until 7,700, Gravestone showed on the daily chart
COCOA did you take the short with me? LFG
COCOA 12.7k price target. Keep buying under 10k
COCOA Wanted to come back on the 13th but got slammed with acting work. That said—last week’s war headlines and rollover pressure are still weighing on cocoa, holding it lower than expected. But this looks like it’s setting up for a reversal. Sentiment is heavily short right now, and history shows institutions love to snap price the other way when too many get caught leaning any 1 direction. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if we see an aggressive upside move soon.Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA We’ve cracked the code to the 🏉"COCOA"🏉 Commodities CFD market, and now it’s time to launch a high-stakes heist based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical + fundamental analysis🔥.🎯 Mission Objective: Infiltrate the overbought zone, where traps are set, robbers are lurking, and the market’s about to turn. The plan? Ride the bullish wave, loot the Red Zone, and vanish with sweet profits. 🏆💸
🔓 Entry Point:
"The vault is wide open!"
Buy at will — loot that bullish treasure!
⏱️ Best tactic: Set buy limits on the 15M or 30M swing low/high zones. Set alerts and stay sharp.
🛑 Stop Loss:
SL = Nearest 4H Swing Low
🔐 Protect your stash. Use risk-adjusted SL based on trade size and number of entries.
🎯 Target:
11,300 or escape early if the pressure builds!
COCOA Here are the 3 scenarios we think we may see this week.
Scenario 1: Green Rollover Week (60% probability)
• Gap up at 1:45am open (up to $10,400)
• Potential short squeeze to $10,600–10,750 Tuesday
• A fade midweek (~$10,300) before final ramp to $11,000 by Friday
Scenario 2: Shakeout First, Then Ramp (30% probability)
• Open red or flat
• Flush to $9,700
• Then an aggressive bounce Tuesday through Wednesday as funds reenter
• Ends at ~$10,500 by Friday
Scenario 3: Rollover Trap (10% probability)
• Commercials fake rally, price caps at $10,250
• Reversal into $9,500 zone by Friday (unlikely unless macro shocks or ICCO surprise)
Day traders may care about non-commercial movements than traditional swing traders as they follow commercial activity to understand true systemic issues underlying in the supply chain. With that said, commercials likely are and have been absorbing near-term downside while specs de-risk for this week’s roll over.
Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA Equaterra Research COT Reports.
(Click To Read)
Cocoa COT Report – (May 27, 2025 - June 3rd)
Managed Money cut longs by nearly 5k. Commercial shorts dropped too.
Open interest peaked near 104k in May, and is now back near 100k.
First Notice Day (FND) hits around June 14–17. So we expect volume to move from July to September contracts between now and midweek so more shakeouts may come. For any day trader this is very dangerous unless exposure is low in our opinion. For swing traders, repositioning is equally beneficial if low reach levels we didn’t foresee.
Out Key Levels:
If Sep cocoa (CCU25) can hold above $9,400–$9,500, we think it supports bullish structure.
If it breaks below $9,200 but we think unlikely right now.
Out Big Pictures Are:
- Flattening COTs
– Commercials are scaling down hedges
– Funds are adjusting, not out
– Margin easing from different brokers = early reentry signal
– June 13-14 = volatility window for strong shakeouts.
Rollout is in the air and July is around the corner.
P.S There is the possibility that rollout happened and exposure on both sides is being reduced. Retail exasperation from the buzz word “Roll out” may bring volatility of its own. Even the news says it. It’s about to be tough.
Louis Rain
CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer:
The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA $11,000 next week, $12,656 by July.COCOA Spot cocoa dropped below -2.53% past $9,504 on June 2nd, but deferred contracts rose:• July ‘25 (CCN25): +230 to $9,704
• Sep ‘25 (CCU25): +195 to $9,082
• Dec ‘25 (CCZ25): +161 to $8,451
The shift back into contango after weeks of backwardation is key, as it signals that institutions are not done accumulating.
We See:
– Short term selling pressure is targeting front-months (spec liquidations, margin calls, or inventory based fear).
– Institutions are quietly rolling into mid to long-dated contracts which is accumulation behavior.
Open Interest confirms it:
– July ‘25: 34,417
– Sept ‘25: 26,501
This is where the actual battle is. Not in the front-month flush noise but in Q3/Q4.
As long as CCN25 holds above $9,400, our long thesis remains intact. Shakeouts and whipsaws like we saw on June 2nd and today are to be expected.
June 13 and June 27 remain the key directional catalyst dates before July–September weather risk kicks in and the war begins.
COCOA Every day, the world is getting poorer. Look in the stores what is done with the chocolate that is no longer bought. Easter eggs and bunnies are still on sale at a reduced price because people no longer buy chocolate, especially now in the warm season... In the summer, fruits will be in power! I predict COCOA to go downhill, below 4k. God bless you all!