Buy coffee with the trendThe price has come down to the trend line and perhaps it can reach a new All Time High in 2024.
Not much more to say tbh, The trend is your friend..
Like, comment and share if you like this idea.
COFFEE trade ideas
COFFEE - Futures - 4/1/2024This Trade was taken as net positions hit the highest amount this year at 16/4/2024 we had the highest positions in a 26 week period at -78,835 net positions, this was followed by a price action signal for a short trade.
please know at this current time, We had a very dry season in Brazil and in vietnam which caused a massive price spike through out all year. The COT report shows us the net positioning being the highest as well as commercials are loading up on the sell side of the market.
Seasonal trend in the growth of coffee pricesLet's talk about coffee because coffee lovers understand how important it is in daily life. In the business world, it's widely recognized that no meeting or deal is complete without at least one cup of coffee (or even more). ☕️
Now, let's focus on coffee futures. 📰
Technical analysis presents an interesting perspective for potential growth. The price is approaching a significant support level around $1.4 and is once again starting to rise. ☄️
During this uptrend, it successfully breaches key resistance levels in the vicinity of $1.5, creating a "repositioning" pattern for those considering buying. It seems like coffee season has arrived! ☀️
Right now, we're interested in the unclosed bullish gap at the level of $1.662-$1.6485.
On the daily chart, there's an attempt to test the previous month's highest price, which is crucial for further growth.
The scenario of closing the gap may come into play if the price falls to the order block levels within $1.6-$1.44, from which long-term purchases can be considered until the highest price is reached above the $2.0-$2.6 level.
If a pullback occurs to the 1.2-1.3 zone, it may present an opportunity for buying with the potential for a 2-3 rise. In such a case, there's a high probability of subsequent upward movement after the pullback. ☕️
If you're interested in coffee and commodities futures analysis, feel free to hit the 🔥 button, and we can continue the discussion. ☕️📈
LOOK FOR BUYHello,
As of 2023 February 24 (Time of analysis), Friday current price of Coffee is USD 189. The price hit the bottom in January 2023 and prices have been recovering since then.
Though I do not fore see a sharp continuous rise in the prices of coffee. I am convinced that there are good opportunities for us to buy coffee once we see a correction forming.
USD 180 will be a good place to buy coffee with target 1 being at USD 242. This is based on wave analysis coupled with fundamental analysis (demand for the product remains high coupled with poor weather conditions)
Below more details about coffee www.visualcapitalist.com
RiskMastery's Day Trader Series - COFFEE EditionWelcome to RiskMastery's Day Trader Series - Codes with short-term trading potential.
In this edition, we'll be looking at PEPPERSTONE:COFFEE ...
I believe this code is at a point of potential volatility.
If price can move to and hold below $178.34 ... Bearish potential may be unlocked.
My key downside targets include:
- $175.16 (Conservative)
- $167.01 (Medium)
- $157.44 (Aggressive)
If however price breaks above $182.99 ... Bullish potential may be unlocked.
(My key risk targets - C, M,& A - are as noted on the chart)
Enjoy, and I look forward to being of further service into the future.
If you'd like to connect, feel free to reach out and comment below.
Mr RM | Risk Mastery
Disclaimer:
This post is intended for educational purposes only - Publicly available RiskMastery information & content is not intended to be financial advice in any shape or form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a licensed professional before acting on any of the information contained within this post. This post is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any positions in any financial instrument. All demonstrated trades are merely incidental to the educational training RiskMastery aims to provide. You are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions, of which should be made only according to your own opinion, knowledge and experience. You should not rely on any of the information contained on this site or contained in any RiskMastery material on any website or platform. You assume the sole risk of any trade or investment you elect to make. RiskMastery and affiliates shall not be liable to you for any monetary losses or any other damages incurred directly or indirectly, from your use, reliance or reference of RiskMastery materials, content and educational information. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation - We look forward to working with you into the future to navigate the fine line of trading and investment success.
Long Coffee / Short Sugar: Soft Commodities Pair TradeI thought this one was pretty straightforward. Coffee looks PHENOMENAL for a long
Sugar looks yucky after the huge run-up and is a shortable soft commodity hedge
This stuff isn't that complicated. Supply issues get resolved in Sugar as they do in most commodities. Tbf I think Sugar is exhausted, I don't know if it will go down that much but I don't think it's going higher (much). I prefer to do pairs trades to reduce my overall market directional risk.
Coffee is the key here, let's look at the CoT
Speculative opinion below:
Green is the commercial (hedges). Commercials can be hedged long or short. So a coffee company like Dunkin Donuts which would buy coffee futures to hedge their future purchasing needs, or short to hedge the beans they own but haven't sold to customers yet. There were tons expiring in June, little changes in June-Sep, and now new short hedges building. This is because they've presumably obtained their desired product from producers. I've circled December on the bottom in each year. The harvest season for coffee globally *mostly* ends around November, although it is technically year round. Certainly November-April are the months where very little is being harvested. So it is this period when merchandising contracts are likely completed and short hedges become initiated now that you are sitting on the raw harvested product delivered but unsold. Those hedges will need to be built, and are being built. November - April are the most seasonally kind months because of the lack of farmed raw product available, and uncertainty about next years yields. The technical chart looks amazing, and the short hedges are getting to a point where it becomes vulnerable to positional effects pushing it higher. I like 230 or so on Coffee, which is a lot of points from 173 (current price).
Trade can be taken via futures where one coffee contract is roughly $64.5k and one sugar contract is roughly $30,000 to roughly 1:2 ratio KC:SB
Not financial advice DYOR.
coffe futurescoffeusd speculative view
weekly tests and bounces from major area since 2017,
and in strange feeling im leaning that coffe is about to follow orange juice
basicly this shows that food is getting more expensive in the world . probably because of russia-ukraina-middle east
look for short if close under 165.18 area
look for long if close above 169.02 area
***
Tolerance will reach such a level that intelligent people will be banned from thinking so as not to offend the imbeciles- F.M.dostoyevsky
on going down trend coffethis concept shows high probability of down trend extension
in the link there is a long therm view
TA for $COFFEE Commodities ☕️📉This is my PEPPERSTONE:COFFEE chart. One day I was making some coffee and realized that I am bullish on coffee. It is one of my favorite things. So I pulled up PEPPERSTONE:COFFEE commodity price and was sad to see a bearish divergence and admittedly a bearish chart. Of course I didn't short it because that would've been smart... I found my ideal entry target (indicated by the green box) and have been waiting about a year and a half ever since. ☕️
Coffee potential selloffAs Coffee has been in a general downtrend, I'm looking to take advantage of the next potential leg down. The previous pullback (move above rising trend line support) has had a few nice short-term swing opportunities both to the upside and downside. After breaking and closing below gap, horizontal and rising trend line supports along with Friday's long-tailed dark cloud cover confirming all three levels as new resistance, I've started to build a short position...
Thoughts on investing on Coffee Commodity Anticipating a long and also spotted a bullish flag which symbolises a buying market
Coffee Futures Bullish LevelGreen shade on the jupiter pendulum at key levels
Look for buyers to step in here and for the blue confirmation candle
Coffee SHORTCommodities Are Best Traded with Trend Following
Delivering a comprehensive service of trading systems, risk management strategies and psychological guidelines allows our customers to trade in less than thirty minutes per day.
Arabica coffee futures in the US traded around HKEX:194 per pound after hitting an over 6-month high of HKEX:205 on April 18th, on some profit-taking prompted by the recent rise amid low stocks and concerns that the slowing global economy could hurt coffee demand. On the supply side, the latest data showed ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 4-1/4 month low of 700,048 bags. Meanwhile, dealers have said exports from key origins such as Brazil and Colombia were slumping. The International Coffee Organization projected another year of strong supply deficit in the coffee market, with a shortfall of 7.3 million bags, mainly due to arabica crop woes in Latin America's top producer.
What moves coffee prices?
There are several major factors that could affect coffee prices. If you are going to trade coffee it is important to understand the dynamics that drive prices.
The ‘Big Four’
The largest buyers of coffee beans on the international markets are known as the so-called ‘Big Four’: Nestle (NESN), Kraft (KHC), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Sara Lee (SLE). Together, they purchase around 50% of all the coffee produced globally. They primarily buy Robusta beans, so their activity exerts a strong influence on prices.
Climate
As an agricultural commodity, coffee production is largely determined by the impact of weather conditions on sensitive crops. If the climate is conducive to growing coffee plants, prices can drop, but an unfavourable climate can cause prices to rise.
This is because good weather during the growing season can increase the supply, while adverse weather conditions can damage crops or hamper their growth. As the five largest producers account for around 65% of global supply, weather conditions can have a significant effect on supply and, in turn, pricing.
Arabica coffee prices soared to 10-year highs in late 2021, as drought and frost reduced output in Brazil and heavy rains affected production in Colombia. ICE-certified stocks fell to their lowest level in 22 years.
Plant disease
Agricultural commodities are also affected by other risks that can influence the condition of plants, such as disease.
‘Coffee leaf rust’ is a disease caused by a fungus that can devastate coffee crops. Robusta beans are more resilient than Arabica beans, which are more delicate and susceptible to damage from bad weather or disease.
For example, global coffee prices rose sharply in 2013 after coffee leaf rust damaged crops in Central America and reduced supply. It was estimated that around 70% of Guatemala’s coffee production was affected.
Consumer habits
Coffee drinking trends are a key driver of demand and price direction. The emergence of specialty coffee shops is increasing demand for premium, artisan beans.
Consumption is also changing in different parts of the world, with emerging markets such as in Asia leading demand growth because of rising incomes, changing tastes and growing populations. But the ongoing debate around the health effects of drinking coffee can also affect consumption.
Although Arabica and Robusta beans have different flavours, major changes in the price for one can affect the demand for the other. If Arabica prices soar, demand for Robusta as a substitute could increase in response.
Geopolitics
As more than 90% of coffee is produced in developing countries, social unrest or political instability can disrupt coffee production and market sentiment. Futures prices respond quickly to geopolitical events in major producing nations.
With Russia being the world’s sixth largest coffee consumer, the war in Ukraine and resulting sanctions has had an impact on coffee demand, and is expected to cause a supply surplus in the 2022 to 2023 growing season.
Distribution costs
The cost of transporting coffee around the world is factored into prices. Costs for fuel and shipping determine how expensive it is to distribute coffee. During the Covid-19 pandemic, high freight costs contributed to prices reaching decade highs.
US dollar
Commodity markets including coffee are often priced in US dollars, so the value of the dollar also affects prices. Dollar-denominated commodities become more expensive for buyers with other currencies when the dollar rises, which can weigh on demand. Meanwhile, coffee becomes cheaper when the dollar falls, increasing international demand.
Coffee Futures getting an uncommon sign of over extension.KC is hitting some fibs and speculators have been getting heavily long over the past 3 weeks as per COT data.
PMARP showing a good sign of over exuberance.
From what I can tell the consensus on it is that there's a big shortage and it cant go down, which is common across a few other commodities at the moment (CL etc). Consensus is rarely correct.
Much of the rally on this seems to have been supported by the "Bid everything, muh fed saving the economy" narrative that popped up last month.
A similar thing happened in 2008, Bear Sterns went under and JPM "saved the world", VIX got crushed to 16 (VIX is at 16.38 as of writing this) in the 4 weeks following, then we all know what happened from there.
Beware of big institutions saving the world narratives.
Coffee. Long on weekly chart.A good move up, consolidation, and another move up on good volume. I think I'll go long on Monday. I'm glad I'm a tea-drinker.
Coffee Short - Seasonal weakness starting For my coffee drinkers - Both Arabica and Robusta had a strong start to the year. However, seasonally a bearish phase starts from 22 Feb to 31 Mar. The technical price target was also reached yesterday. In the last 17 years we can observe a negative trend between 22 Feb to 1 Mar. Only in 5 out of 17 years did the coffee price rise during this period. On average, coffee loses around -3.75% in this period with a standard deviation of 6.92%.
Just a cup of coffeeHello Traders
Coffee has broken the resistance level of 173.39 (D) and it looks like a trend continuation to the upside will continue under the 100EMA.
Price can continue to rise and reach the 210.00 area. I am currently long.
Anyone else trading coffee?
Happy trading
Samantha.
Coffee (Love Coffee & wanna get rich?)View On Coffee (23 Dec 2022)
I am seeing a possible bottoming in coffee.
It is hard to find a single bottoming point but I reckon the price of coffee will not go lower than $150.
In 1Q2023, you can slowly build coffee postings and possible extract the great profit of it.
It shall easily see $190 or even $210
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Bottom Or Not?Can see a case here that we have potentially made a bottom and completed the ABC correction.
COFFEEMarket has been appears first pullback out of the range. So now is waiting for selling pressure comes in as my entry trigger
