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Coffee Arabica (KC)

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COFFEEARABICA trade ideas

TA for $COFFEE Commodities ☕️📉This is my PEPPERSTONE:COFFEE chart. One day I was making some coffee and realized that I am bullish on coffee. It is one of my favorite things. So I pulled up PEPPERSTONE:COFFEE commodity price and was sad to see a bearish divergence and admittedly a bearish chart. Of course I didn't short it because that would've been smart... I found my ideal entry target (indicated by the green box) and have been waiting about a year and a half ever since. ☕️
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEE
by Luna_Crypto_
Coffee potential selloffAs Coffee has been in a general downtrend, I'm looking to take advantage of the next potential leg down. The previous pullback (move above rising trend line support) has had a few nice short-term swing opportunities both to the upside and downside. After breaking and closing below gap, horizontal and rising trend line supports along with Friday's long-tailed dark cloud cover confirming all three levels as new resistance, I've started to build a short position...
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by KH2_Artizan
Coffee SHORTCommodities Are Best Traded with Trend Following Delivering a comprehensive service of trading systems, risk management strategies and psychological guidelines allows our customers to trade in less than thirty minutes per day. Arabica coffee futures in the US traded around HKEX:194 per pound after hitting an over 6-month high of HKEX:205 on April 18th, on some profit-taking prompted by the recent rise amid low stocks and concerns that the slowing global economy could hurt coffee demand. On the supply side, the latest data showed ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 4-1/4 month low of 700,048 bags. Meanwhile, dealers have said exports from key origins such as Brazil and Colombia were slumping. The International Coffee Organization projected another year of strong supply deficit in the coffee market, with a shortfall of 7.3 million bags, mainly due to arabica crop woes in Latin America's top producer. What moves coffee prices? There are several major factors that could affect coffee prices. If you are going to trade coffee it is important to understand the dynamics that drive prices. The ‘Big Four’ The largest buyers of coffee beans on the international markets are known as the so-called ‘Big Four’: Nestle (NESN), Kraft (KHC), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Sara Lee (SLE). Together, they purchase around 50% of all the coffee produced globally. They primarily buy Robusta beans, so their activity exerts a strong influence on prices. Climate As an agricultural commodity, coffee production is largely determined by the impact of weather conditions on sensitive crops. If the climate is conducive to growing coffee plants, prices can drop, but an unfavourable climate can cause prices to rise. This is because good weather during the growing season can increase the supply, while adverse weather conditions can damage crops or hamper their growth. As the five largest producers account for around 65% of global supply, weather conditions can have a significant effect on supply and, in turn, pricing. Arabica coffee prices soared to 10-year highs in late 2021, as drought and frost reduced output in Brazil and heavy rains affected production in Colombia. ICE-certified stocks fell to their lowest level in 22 years. Plant disease Agricultural commodities are also affected by other risks that can influence the condition of plants, such as disease. ‘Coffee leaf rust’ is a disease caused by a fungus that can devastate coffee crops. Robusta beans are more resilient than Arabica beans, which are more delicate and susceptible to damage from bad weather or disease. For example, global coffee prices rose sharply in 2013 after coffee leaf rust damaged crops in Central America and reduced supply. It was estimated that around 70% of Guatemala’s coffee production was affected. Consumer habits Coffee drinking trends are a key driver of demand and price direction. The emergence of specialty coffee shops is increasing demand for premium, artisan beans. Consumption is also changing in different parts of the world, with emerging markets such as in Asia leading demand growth because of rising incomes, changing tastes and growing populations. But the ongoing debate around the health effects of drinking coffee can also affect consumption. Although Arabica and Robusta beans have different flavours, major changes in the price for one can affect the demand for the other. If Arabica prices soar, demand for Robusta as a substitute could increase in response. Geopolitics As more than 90% of coffee is produced in developing countries, social unrest or political instability can disrupt coffee production and market sentiment. Futures prices respond quickly to geopolitical events in major producing nations. With Russia being the world’s sixth largest coffee consumer, the war in Ukraine and resulting sanctions has had an impact on coffee demand, and is expected to cause a supply surplus in the 2022 to 2023 growing season. Distribution costs The cost of transporting coffee around the world is factored into prices. Costs for fuel and shipping determine how expensive it is to distribute coffee. During the Covid-19 pandemic, high freight costs contributed to prices reaching decade highs. US dollar Commodity markets including coffee are often priced in US dollars, so the value of the dollar also affects prices. Dollar-denominated commodities become more expensive for buyers with other currencies when the dollar rises, which can weigh on demand. Meanwhile, coffee becomes cheaper when the dollar falls, increasing international demand.
CAPITALCOM:COFFEEARABICAShort
by DaveBrascoFX
Coffee Futures getting an uncommon sign of over extension.KC is hitting some fibs and speculators have been getting heavily long over the past 3 weeks as per COT data. PMARP showing a good sign of over exuberance. From what I can tell the consensus on it is that there's a big shortage and it cant go down, which is common across a few other commodities at the moment (CL etc). Consensus is rarely correct. Much of the rally on this seems to have been supported by the "Bid everything, muh fed saving the economy" narrative that popped up last month. A similar thing happened in 2008, Bear Sterns went under and JPM "saved the world", VIX got crushed to 16 (VIX is at 16.38 as of writing this) in the 4 weeks following, then we all know what happened from there. Beware of big institutions saving the world narratives.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by InsaneGamingGoblin
3
Coffee Short - Seasonal weakness starting For my coffee drinkers - Both Arabica and Robusta had a strong start to the year. However, seasonally a bearish phase starts from 22 Feb to 31 Mar. The technical price target was also reached yesterday. In the last 17 years we can observe a negative trend between 22 Feb to 1 Mar. Only in 5 out of 17 years did the coffee price rise during this period. On average, coffee loses around -3.75% in this period with a standard deviation of 6.92%.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by SalahBouhmidi
1
Coffee (Love Coffee & wanna get rich?)View On Coffee (23 Dec 2022) I am seeing a possible bottoming in coffee. It is hard to find a single bottoming point but I reckon the price of coffee will not go lower than $150. In 1Q2023, you can slowly build coffee postings and possible extract the great profit of it. It shall easily see $190 or even $210 DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Thank You! Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading crypto, foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEE
by SonicDeejay
3
Coffee price keeps the negativity – AnalysisCoffee price provided more negative closings by consolidating below 178.00 resistance, to start reacting to the major indicators by declining towards 159.40, expecting to continue forming negative crawl and attempt to touch 154.00, while breaking this obstacle will extend trades towards 147.10 to face the historical support that appears on the chart, assuring the importance of monitoring its behavior to manage to detect the next main trend.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by eltonmorningstar