COFFEEARABICA trade ideas
coffe futurescoffeusd speculative view
weekly tests and bounces from major area since 2017,
and in strange feeling im leaning that coffe is about to follow orange juice
basicly this shows that food is getting more expensive in the world . probably because of russia-ukraina-middle east
look for short if close under 165.18 area
look for long if close above 169.02 area
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Tolerance will reach such a level that intelligent people will be banned from thinking so as not to offend the imbeciles- F.M.dostoyevsky
on going down trend coffethis concept shows high probability of down trend extension
in the link there is a long therm view
TA for $COFFEE Commodities ☕️📉This is my PEPPERSTONE:COFFEE chart. One day I was making some coffee and realized that I am bullish on coffee. It is one of my favorite things. So I pulled up PEPPERSTONE:COFFEE commodity price and was sad to see a bearish divergence and admittedly a bearish chart. Of course I didn't short it because that would've been smart... I found my ideal entry target (indicated by the green box) and have been waiting about a year and a half ever since. ☕️
Coffee potential selloffAs Coffee has been in a general downtrend, I'm looking to take advantage of the next potential leg down. The previous pullback (move above rising trend line support) has had a few nice short-term swing opportunities both to the upside and downside. After breaking and closing below gap, horizontal and rising trend line supports along with Friday's long-tailed dark cloud cover confirming all three levels as new resistance, I've started to build a short position...
Thoughts on investing on Coffee Commodity Anticipating a long and also spotted a bullish flag which symbolises a buying market
Coffee Futures Bullish LevelGreen shade on the jupiter pendulum at key levels
Look for buyers to step in here and for the blue confirmation candle
Coffee SHORTCommodities Are Best Traded with Trend Following
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Arabica coffee futures in the US traded around HKEX:194 per pound after hitting an over 6-month high of HKEX:205 on April 18th, on some profit-taking prompted by the recent rise amid low stocks and concerns that the slowing global economy could hurt coffee demand. On the supply side, the latest data showed ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 4-1/4 month low of 700,048 bags. Meanwhile, dealers have said exports from key origins such as Brazil and Colombia were slumping. The International Coffee Organization projected another year of strong supply deficit in the coffee market, with a shortfall of 7.3 million bags, mainly due to arabica crop woes in Latin America's top producer.
What moves coffee prices?
There are several major factors that could affect coffee prices. If you are going to trade coffee it is important to understand the dynamics that drive prices.
The ‘Big Four’
The largest buyers of coffee beans on the international markets are known as the so-called ‘Big Four’: Nestle (NESN), Kraft (KHC), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Sara Lee (SLE). Together, they purchase around 50% of all the coffee produced globally. They primarily buy Robusta beans, so their activity exerts a strong influence on prices.
Climate
As an agricultural commodity, coffee production is largely determined by the impact of weather conditions on sensitive crops. If the climate is conducive to growing coffee plants, prices can drop, but an unfavourable climate can cause prices to rise.
This is because good weather during the growing season can increase the supply, while adverse weather conditions can damage crops or hamper their growth. As the five largest producers account for around 65% of global supply, weather conditions can have a significant effect on supply and, in turn, pricing.
Arabica coffee prices soared to 10-year highs in late 2021, as drought and frost reduced output in Brazil and heavy rains affected production in Colombia. ICE-certified stocks fell to their lowest level in 22 years.
Plant disease
Agricultural commodities are also affected by other risks that can influence the condition of plants, such as disease.
‘Coffee leaf rust’ is a disease caused by a fungus that can devastate coffee crops. Robusta beans are more resilient than Arabica beans, which are more delicate and susceptible to damage from bad weather or disease.
For example, global coffee prices rose sharply in 2013 after coffee leaf rust damaged crops in Central America and reduced supply. It was estimated that around 70% of Guatemala’s coffee production was affected.
Consumer habits
Coffee drinking trends are a key driver of demand and price direction. The emergence of specialty coffee shops is increasing demand for premium, artisan beans.
Consumption is also changing in different parts of the world, with emerging markets such as in Asia leading demand growth because of rising incomes, changing tastes and growing populations. But the ongoing debate around the health effects of drinking coffee can also affect consumption.
Although Arabica and Robusta beans have different flavours, major changes in the price for one can affect the demand for the other. If Arabica prices soar, demand for Robusta as a substitute could increase in response.
Geopolitics
As more than 90% of coffee is produced in developing countries, social unrest or political instability can disrupt coffee production and market sentiment. Futures prices respond quickly to geopolitical events in major producing nations.
With Russia being the world’s sixth largest coffee consumer, the war in Ukraine and resulting sanctions has had an impact on coffee demand, and is expected to cause a supply surplus in the 2022 to 2023 growing season.
Distribution costs
The cost of transporting coffee around the world is factored into prices. Costs for fuel and shipping determine how expensive it is to distribute coffee. During the Covid-19 pandemic, high freight costs contributed to prices reaching decade highs.
US dollar
Commodity markets including coffee are often priced in US dollars, so the value of the dollar also affects prices. Dollar-denominated commodities become more expensive for buyers with other currencies when the dollar rises, which can weigh on demand. Meanwhile, coffee becomes cheaper when the dollar falls, increasing international demand.
Coffee Futures getting an uncommon sign of over extension.KC is hitting some fibs and speculators have been getting heavily long over the past 3 weeks as per COT data.
PMARP showing a good sign of over exuberance.
From what I can tell the consensus on it is that there's a big shortage and it cant go down, which is common across a few other commodities at the moment (CL etc). Consensus is rarely correct.
Much of the rally on this seems to have been supported by the "Bid everything, muh fed saving the economy" narrative that popped up last month.
A similar thing happened in 2008, Bear Sterns went under and JPM "saved the world", VIX got crushed to 16 (VIX is at 16.38 as of writing this) in the 4 weeks following, then we all know what happened from there.
Beware of big institutions saving the world narratives.
Coffee. Long on weekly chart.A good move up, consolidation, and another move up on good volume. I think I'll go long on Monday. I'm glad I'm a tea-drinker.
Coffee Short - Seasonal weakness starting For my coffee drinkers - Both Arabica and Robusta had a strong start to the year. However, seasonally a bearish phase starts from 22 Feb to 31 Mar. The technical price target was also reached yesterday. In the last 17 years we can observe a negative trend between 22 Feb to 1 Mar. Only in 5 out of 17 years did the coffee price rise during this period. On average, coffee loses around -3.75% in this period with a standard deviation of 6.92%.
Just a cup of coffeeHello Traders
Coffee has broken the resistance level of 173.39 (D) and it looks like a trend continuation to the upside will continue under the 100EMA.
Price can continue to rise and reach the 210.00 area. I am currently long.
Anyone else trading coffee?
Happy trading
Samantha.
Coffee (Love Coffee & wanna get rich?)View On Coffee (23 Dec 2022)
I am seeing a possible bottoming in coffee.
It is hard to find a single bottoming point but I reckon the price of coffee will not go lower than $150.
In 1Q2023, you can slowly build coffee postings and possible extract the great profit of it.
It shall easily see $190 or even $210
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Bottom Or Not?Can see a case here that we have potentially made a bottom and completed the ABC correction.
COFFEEMarket has been appears first pullback out of the range. So now is waiting for selling pressure comes in as my entry trigger
Coffee price keeps the negativity – AnalysisCoffee price provided more negative closings by consolidating below 178.00 resistance, to start reacting to the major indicators by declining towards 159.40, expecting to continue forming negative crawl and attempt to touch 154.00, while breaking this obstacle will extend trades towards 147.10 to face the historical support that appears on the chart, assuring the importance of monitoring its behavior to manage to detect the next main trend.
Coffee more downside to coffee, looks like this will continue dropping, costs must be rising for producers where theyre jsut looking to flip the goods for whatever cash they can and letting the market fall.
Coffee Prices Should Continue Downward in 2023The chart does not look great technically, with momentum to the downside, we also have over-supply on the market, perhaps due to the bull whip effect. Deflation can be real, just not all industries all at once perhaps. NFA, DYOR
#COFEE- SHORT OPPORTUNITYIn anticipation of the recession, coffe begins to lose value as smart money is moved from these commodities to safer places.
Meanwhile, an upward breakout was attempted on the descending pattern, but the deviation was apparently a fake-out, which means that we will soon have a retest of the support and if it is broken, we can go on short until the next . support.
CoffeePlease note that this translation was done using Google Translate.
I think coffee will show long-term growth.
Cheaper Coffee?Cheaper futures perhaps. I see potential to retest the 200ma especially if we can hold relative strength as is or lower. Not financial advice.
