GOLD/XAUUSD PO3 I see gold's new years candle opened straight with an accumilation to the upside. Meaning OPEN then HIGH, now i want to see the the downside which is the LOW and the CLOSE on to the liquidity.
GOLM2025 trade ideas
Gold Futures Outlook for next week So as of right now I'm feeling more shorts coming in for gold. Just going with the trend. There is a buy opportunity possible for retest but if that play's out, I feel it struggle and break down from my buy TP area. If sells play out it's got some good P/L . We will have to see what the market gives us.
Unlocking Gold’s Potential in 2025: What Traders Must Know!!!COMEX:GC1! After a strong rise in 2024, gold has started to solidify its position in 2025. Known for its status as a safe-haven asset, gold benefited from economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and changes in monetary policy. Undoubtedly, by the end of 2024, profit-taking occurred, which caused gold prices to fall from their historic highs. However, as 2025 begins, traders are readjusting their perspectives and strategies, which is providing support to gold.
1. Review of 2024: A Glorious Year for Gold
• In 2024, gold saw a significant surge, with prices rising sharply due to various factors. Changes in central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, played a crucial role in driving gold prices higher. Gold ended the year up 27%, marking a 23% increase compared to the previous year.
• The primary reasons for the pullback from gold's historic highs were twofold. First, traders began to lock in profits, as the annual price increase for this precious metal seemed too good to be true. Second, U.S. economic data, particularly inflation figures, began to show signs of an unexpected reversal. After dropping to its lowest point in 2024, U.S. inflation data began to rise, causing the Federal Reserve to reconsider its extremely dovish monetary policy, which led to multiple rate cuts throughout the year. By the end of 2024, traders' sentiment indicated that the Fed was unlikely to cut rates further in its next meeting, which resulted in the U.S. dollar index rising relative to gold prices.
2. Recalibrating with a New Perspective
• As we enter 2025, traders are considering three key factors that could significantly support gold prices. First, a major event will take place on January 20, when the new president will be inaugurated. The elected president may pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates further, advocating for a lower interest rate environment. This suggests that, despite some members of the Fed being reluctant to lower rates, the Federal Reserve may be compelled to do so under pressure from the new president.
• Second, the incoming president is expected to escalate trade tensions with other countries, potentially affecting economic growth and increasing geopolitical uncertainty. If this occurs, it may lead some investors to reconsider the U.S. dollar’s status as a safe-haven currency, which could increase demand for gold.
• Third, we are entering a period in which most investors are reallocating funds within their portfolios. Considering the performance over the past two years and the potential for trade policy-driven geopolitical tensions, we may see a fresh influx of capital into gold.
3. Price Trends
• Gold prices have now surpassed the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is a positive indicator for the trend. As long as prices remain above this level, we may see a more bullish momentum in the market.
GOLD LONGGOLD
MTF Analysis
GOLDYearly Demand 64,063
GOLD 6 Month Demand 64,063
GOLDQtrly Demand BUFL 68,021
GOLDMonthly Demand 76,120
GOLDWeekly Demand 74,731
GOLDDaily Demand DMIP 75,700
ENTRY -1 Long 76,930
SL 76,660
RISK 270
Target as per Entry 87,519
Last High 79,087
Last Low 74,871
ENTRY -2 Long 74,412
SL 73,331
RISK 1,081
Target as per Entry 90,599
Last High 79,087
Last Low 73,331
Will gold lose it's shine for sometime ?As we can see dark cloud cover on recent top ,I am little concerned about 'upcoming move in gold as we all know gold is refer as safe heaven in investing world .
Multiple marketsIn January 2nd I've been away from the market for a week or so. I think some of the the index markets are going to reverse and go lower but it's not exactly clear right now. I spent more time than I should have on this video but I wanted to show a few examples of range boxes because I think range boxes are going to be useful in the next couple of weeks.
2025-01-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bullish. Clear breakout on the 4h tf and market looks like it wants to retest 2700. The triangle is the dominant pattern for now and there is no more resistance until 2700 for the bulls. Market kept above the 1h 20ema since the breakout and any long close to it is reasonable until it’s clearly broken. Bears need something below 2650 again and make the market go sideways for longer to turn it neutral again.
comment: Bullish breakout and very strong close at the high. Clear buy signal and market turned bullish again. 2700 is the next big target for the bulls and best case for them would be to keep the 1h 20ema support. Bears need a strong move down to get below 2650 again and then sideways for many bars to turn it neutral again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2560 - 2760
bull case: Bulls want 2700 next but I doubt they will get much higher than that. Longing any pullback for target 2700-2720 is reasonable for now. The last time bulls printed two consecutive strong bull bars on the daily chart was in mid December when we moved 120 points up. A measured move from the past 2 days brings us to 2730ish and close enough to the lower highs around 2740/2760.
Invalidation is below 2640.
bear case: Bears were nowhere to be found today. They could not print 1 decent 1h bar and that is why I think today’s price action is so strong. Every small dip was bought and volume is also picking up again. Bears would need something below 2640 again but for now the best they can hope for is to stay below 2700 and go sideways.
Invalidation is above 2710.
short term: Bullish. Want to see 2700 and markets reaction there. Depending on the next pull-back, this could continue to 2740+ and break above the bear trend line but for now I look for longs for target 2700.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Buying near the 1h 20ema.
Channeling the trend trader's frustrations !!!!Gold has been the subject of significant two way action lately,the problem with two-way action is that it tends to move slowly with a + or -10% bias.
In Gold's case it could be argued that the last 3 months trading has been a pit stop on the road to nowhere.The channel I pointed out some weeks back provided the anticipate support but the lacklustre action makes me think that the downside will be tested again,probably on the rin in to President Trump's Inauguration.
With Hurricane Trump due in Washington on Jan 20th I'd suspect that he and others in his circle will be focused on Crypto and that in off itself might pressurise Gold.The fact that Putin's putative BRIC currency block is to be supported by Gold might induce authorities in the West to manufacture and place multiple impediments on Putin's Yellow Brick road.
Then again we have some interesting new people onboard in the new administration who are not noted for either their social skills,tact or their political adroitness.Expect 1600 Pennsylvania Ave to have particularily noisy neighbors in the first 6 months!
X will have every traders attention over the coming months.
Happy New Year to All!
Gold short terms bullishMarket structure shift on H1 indicates we may revisit the relative equal highs. If I get a return to the FVG, I'd be intersted in seeing price go back higher.
[MCX] Gold Compression Straddle BetGold has a nasty compression. Although techncially it is easy to see the bet of long side is most logical but if you zoom out and see in higher timeframe, the view is on short side.
So, Timeframe analysis does not align at all.
Selling a stradle. On BEP break I will take delivery i.e if it breaks upside, I will retain a short view. If it breaks downside, I will retain a long view.
My bet is - It will fall this year.
GOLD is getting some rest to fly againhello gold poeple adept
For gold I think it is now just taking some rest to fly again in order to has its TP1: 3075 and next TP2:3755, but our precious metal can gow down until 2450 but keep in mind that gold is always for buy because if you short it you will suffer.
NB: if you want more analysis just text me here
GOOD LUCK
GOLD - 12?31?24.As we can see, in the future of this analysis - we may see price create a bearish pattern.
Will be looking to take advantage of this opportunity and trade the bearish pattern.
- FX_Dispenser .
[GOLD] Time for the pullback ?After the huge rally we had on the TVC:GOLD , it can be time for a pullback.
Here I start my feelers for a short swing position in building and will manage the position / scenario after this first entry.
We reach my 2 weekly targets for the longs (I didn't expected the second one to be touched as fast) and the rejection of the second one is also an indicator showing me the timing to try my first shorts ...
Great Trade !
Long Gold with Target Growth Next Week
- Key Insights: Gold has shown increased demand due to ongoing economic
uncertainty and inflation concerns. Investor sentiment remains bullish as
central banks continue to face challenges in controlling inflation, making
Gold a safe-haven asset. Traders should look to capitalize on the volatility
surrounding inflation reports and geopolitical tensions.
- Price Targets:
- Next week targets: T1=2720, T2=2760
- Stop levels: S1=2600, S2=2570
- Recent Performance: Gold has recently stabilized around the 2600 mark
following a rollercoaster of fluctuations driven by market reactions to
macroeconomic data. The recent consolidation hints at a potential upward
breakout given supportive fundamentals and persistent investing activity.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts remain cautiously optimistic on Gold prices, citing
that the current price environment is ripe for upward momentum. Most experts
believe that if the price holds above key support levels, we could see a
significant rally as institutional demand increases.
- News Impact: Recent economic data reporting higher-than-expected inflation
rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions have contributed to increasing
Gold's appeal. Central banks' futures guidance indicates a likelihood of
continued support for Gold due to currency fluctuations and market
uncertainty.
Opening Range (1hr) & Volume Profile for New York zone Opening range - wait until one hour range gets established. Then watch to see if trend continues outside of box or reverse to come back into the box.
Volume Profile
Pay attention to today's Value High, Value Low, POC as well as yesterday's VH, VL & POC.
Gold’s Year-End Sparkle: A Short-Term Bullish Play📢 Gold Year-End Bullish Setup 🚀
🔹 Trade Details:
Entry ( now ): $2,643
Take Profit: $2,654
Stop Loss: $2,637
📈 Why This Trade?
✅ Seasonal Trend: Year-end portfolio rebalancing typically drives demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.
✅ Cautious Sentiment: Investors are leaning towards Gold amid year-end uncertainties.
✅ Technical Outlook: Key support near $2,637 holds strong, with potential upside to $2,654.
📊 Analysis Summary:
Gold historically benefits from increased demand during year-end adjustments. Coupled with a supportive technical setup, this trade idea offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for short-term traders.
💬 What are your thoughts on this setup? Let me know in the comments and feel free to share your ideas!
Trade responsibly and manage your risk.
GC1! Gold Possible trades going into next week Gold could have some good play's coming through soon into the New Year . We still have New Year eve & day to get through before markets start moving more normal but as of now this is what I can see if it play's out with my strategy. January could be a wild start of the year with the new president going into office. Lets profit from it with possible major price action. 30min closure is what I'm looking for when it gets to the zone. 5min entry point
GOLD in monthly chart Nothing has changed in my view about gold chart and I am expecting more corrective sub-waves for its wave 4 we are in. The only concern is about wave iv and (iv) that mentioned with green arrow that can make an extension.
The main point is that we are in a wave 4 correction that can prolong more than you expect.
Another point that should be considered is that wave 5 is extended and it is supposed to rise roughly up to 3236 and then start to make a deep correct but THE SCENARIO for gold is BULLISH for a while.
Gold Analysis: Key Levels for Reversal (Dec 23, 2024)Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today, we will analyze the Gold chart.
Daily Chart Analysis
Gold has shown a steady upward trend since 2017, forming consistent frames and rising in a stepwise manner. However, even within this long-term uptrend, the potential for both corrections and rebounds exists, which requires careful monitoring and strategic responses.
Currently, in the red box zone, we observe the following:
The moving averages have not yet formed a death cross, but Gold is facing resistance below both the 20-day and 60-day moving averages on the daily chart.
Additionally, the Ichimoku Cloud is acting as resistance, which is unusual compared to its usual supportive role.
The last time the Ichimoku Cloud acted as resistance was back in February 2024, making this resistance the first in nearly 10 months.
The key support level to watch is 2596.7, which served as last week’s support.
However, the possibility of a bearish scenario seems higher for the following reason:
The Lagging Span (Chikou Span), currently within the green box zone, is at risk of breaking below the candlesticks. Unless a strong rebound occurs this week, the Lagging Span may pierce through the candles, leading to additional resistance and increasing the likelihood of Gold breaking below 2596.7.
If 2596.7 is breached, the next support level is 2541.5.
While the lower limit of the bearish frame remains uncertain, the orange box zone represents the next key area to monitor. Depending on the strength of the selling pressure, Gold could potentially test the upper boundary of the orange box.
Short-Term Rebound Levels
Where can we expect a short-term rebound?
The key level to watch is the 2656.2 breakout.
After a strong bearish candlestick appeared, Gold established a short-term frame between 2656.2 and 2596.7 on the 1-hour chart. While some rebound attempts followed, Gold has failed to break above the previous high from before the bearish candle appeared. As a result, it remains outside the orange box frame.
A breakout above 2656.2 would signify entry into the lower part of the orange box frame, potentially leading to a temporary rebound.
For a complete trend reversal, Gold must break above the green box zone, which represents the long-term downtrend line.
Conclusion
Gold has shown consistent upward trends over the years, but no market can sustain perpetual growth without facing corrections. The current technical indicators suggest a strong possibility of a downward adjustment in the short term. While a temporary rebound could occur above the 2656.2 level, a failure to maintain key support at 2596.7 may lead to further declines toward 2541.5 or even the lower bounds of the orange zone.
As always, markets move in cycles. It is important to adapt to changing dynamics and remain prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios. Patience and discipline are key—profitable opportunities always arise for those who wait for the right moment.
If this analysis has been helpful, please like, follow, and share your thoughts in the comments!
Gold short againfrom my first entry gold has not been able to reclaim the level. but on shorter time frame i am eyeing gold short once again.
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I know it’s an ugly chart, bear with me.
Gold spent 2020 - 2024 inside a 570 point range and started the recent bull trend with the breakout in 2024-03. Since then Gold has made 30%, which is more than unusual to say the least. From 2018 to 2020 it made 50% but only because it lost 36% from 2011 to 2018.
Market is much less obvious on higher time frames than I’d like. Both sides have reasonable arguments going for them. For bulls it’s that the bull trend is ongoing while bears could see the leg down from 2826 down to 2566 as the first in the new bear trend. Bulls would like a third leg up which could lead to 3000. Both are valid and that is why it’s most likely that the market will move sideways rather than trend big time to either direction. My favorite path forward would be a trend down to 2300 and then sideways inside a big range 2300 - 2600.
current market cycle: Bull trend is ongoing until bears can close consecutive weekly bars below the 20ema, which is at 2640 right now. Could the new bear trend have started with W1 from 2826 down to 2566? Yes. Both can be valid at the same time.
key levels for 2025: 2500 - 3000 (if 2500 breaks, 2300 would be the next big target below)
bull case: Bulls want a W5 up to 3000. Easy as pie is that read and seeing it on the chart. Hard part, as always, is giving probabilities to it and as of now, I won’t make any. The market is in balance around 2650 and I would need prices above 2760 or below 2560 to have a stronger opinion about it. That’s short but all I have to write about it for now. Can’t make stuff up where there is none.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Bears see the move down from the ath as a W1 of the new bear trend which could lead down to my biggest bear goal for 2025 at 2200ish. Here are the big bear targets in order. First is the 50% retracement of the recent bull trend at 2500. It’s also the breakout price from the W1 high and the old ath from 2011-08. Second bigger target would be 2300 which is a measured move down from the bearish W1 from the ath, the 2023-05 high (breakout-retest) and it would close the big bull gap the market left behind. Third and final target, which is the most unreasonable one for now, is 2200 which is the 50% retracement from the whole bull trend since 2018.
Invalidation is above 3050.
short term: Neutral. Lower highs and higher lows. Market is in a triangle again and in balance around 2650.
medium-long term: Will only give one above 2760 or below 2560.
current swing trade: None
GOLD OUTLOOK for week of Sun. Dec. 22Continuing my bearish bias to close 2024 for both Gold and Silver. Anticipating shallow runs into bearish imbalances to continue price lower towards failure swings below current price.
