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GCX2026 trade ideas

Weekly Forex Forecast: GOLD & SILVER Are Bullish! BUY Them!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th. Gold and Silver are both bullish, with Gold being the stronger of the two. I am not interested in selling either until I see a bearish BOS, as the swing structure is bullish, and the trend is up. Wait until the fractal structure is aligned with the overall market structure, which would make for higher probability buys to follow the trend. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
2
Trading Gold Futures Amid Global Trade TensionsCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) #Microfutures The United States will be implementing new tariffs on Saturday, February 1st, including 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as a 10% duty on all goods from China. These countries are the Top 3 U.S. trading partners, contributing to 40% of all goods and services imported into the US in 2023, collectively. On Friday, gold prices surpassed the key $2,800 mark for the first time ever. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,810.55 per troy ounce, after hitting a record high of $2,817.23. The record rally is fueled by a flight to safety as trade tensions rise. Gold futures are trading at a premium to spot gold prices. The lead April contract of the benchmark COMEX gold futures settled at $2,833 on Friday. Looking back, the trade tensions between the US and China have intensified since 2018. This time, higher tariffs will be applied globally, not only to competitors of U.S. interests, but also to close allies such as Canada, Mexico and the European Union. Lessons from the US-China Trade Conflict How would the global trade conflicts shape up? Uncertainties remain elevated. Luckily, the US-China trade conflict provides us historical lessons with present-day relevancy. Let’s have a quick review of the major timeline of key events: • July 6, 2018: The trade conflict begins as the US imposes 25% tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods. China retaliates with tariffs on an equal amount of US goods. • August 23, 2018: The US imposes additional 25% tariffs on another $16 billion worth of Chinese goods. China responds with tariffs on $16 billion worth of US goods. • September 24, 2018: The US imposes 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. China retaliates with tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods. • December 1, 2018: A temporary truce is agreed upon during the G20 summit, with a 90-day period for negotiations. • January 15, 2020: The "Phase One" trade deal is signed, easing some tariffs and committing China to increase purchases of US goods. Gold prices responded quickly at each stage of the trade conflict, creating ample trading opportunities. On June 7, 2022, I published “Event-Driven Strategy Focusing on Global Crisis” on TradingView, based on my own trading experience from 2018-19. A link to this write-up is provided here for your information: In summary, I observed patterns in gold prices while the trade conflict was progressing, and designed event-driven strategy based on Game Theory. Here are the highlights: • US initiated new tariffs; Gold prices went up (“Risk On”) • China retaliated with new tariffs; Gold prices went up further ("Risk On”) • US and China announced trade negotiations; Gold prices went down (“Risk Off”) • Negotiations broke down followed by new tariffs; Gold prices went up (“Risk On”) • Negotiations resumed; Gold prices went down (“Risk Off”) • Trade agreement was reached; Gold prices went down sharply (“Risk Off”) The “Fight-and-Talk” could go multiple rounds, pushing tariffs to higher levels. Just how high? China previously maintained a 12% import tariff on U.S. pork products. In its first round of trade retaliation in 2018, China imposed an additional 25% tariff on US pork. A month later, another 25% was added. Pork tariff went up a further 10% in the third round of retaliation, making the total tariff on US pork at a mind-boggling 72%! As shown in the chart, gold responded in an observable manner following each key event. This repetitive pattern made it possible to set up trades in anticipation of the next moves. The Sequence of Next Moves in Trade Conflicts Learning from the previous experience, we could simulate a series of scenarios when new tariffs are imposed on goods from Canada, Mexico, China and the EU. • US initiates new tariffs; Gold prices go up (“Risk On”) • The other country retaliates with new tariffs; Gold prices go up further ("Risk On”) • The two countries announced trade negotiations; Gold prices go down (“Risk Off”) • Trade agreement is reached; Gold prices go down sharply (“Risk Off”) In my opinion, the countries involved would retaliate but may want to avoid a costly trade conflict dragging on. With the brutality of the last trade conflict still fresh in mind, trade deals could be reached more quickly. From a trading perspective, the Fight-and-Talk patterns could be repeated multiple times, making our event-driven strategy reusable. Given that Canada, Mexico, China and the EU are the biggest U.S. trading partners, the price swing in gold could be more volatile. Conflicts with smaller trading partners, such as Taiwan and the Southeastern Asian countries, may not trigger big moves in gold. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on January 28th, total Open Interest (OI) for Gold Futures is 577,505, up 15% from the level last November when the U.S. election was held. Interest in using gold for trading or hedging goes up with the escalation of risk. “Swap Dealers” own 363,051 contracts, making them the largest trader category to own gold futures positions. • Swap Dealers have 29,725 in Long, 272,549 in Short, and 60,777 in Spreading • The long-short ratio of 1:9 indicates that “Smart Money” is overwhelmingly bearish There is another supporting factor for a bearish view: A key driver in gold prices is the geopolitical crisis. President Trump announced that he planned to meet with President Xi of China within the first 100 days in office. A meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin is also being planned. As we know, bullion is a preferred asset during times of turmoil. We may soon see the geopolitical risks unwinding, which will send gold prices sharply down. This could happen when Russia and Ukraine end their military conflict with a peace treaty. Trade Setup with Micro Gold Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). MGC contracts have a notional value of 10 troy ounces. With Friday settlement price of 2,833, each April contract (MGCJ5) has a notional value of $28,330. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,150. The MGC contracts are very liquid. On Thursday, MGC has a daily trade volume of 126,712 contracts and an Open Interest of 30,633. Hypothetically, a trader shorts April MGC contract and gold prices pull back 5% to 2,691. A short futures position would gain $1,420 (=142 x $10). Using the initial margin as cost base, a theoretical return would be +123% (= 1420 / 1150). The risk of shorting gold futures is rising gold prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. Traders could express the same view with the standard COMEX Gold (GC) futures or the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures, which represent just 1/10 the size of a Micro Gold (MGC) futures contract and 1/100 of GC futures contract. To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, sponsored by CME Group, will begin at TradingView on February 3rd. I encourage you to join The Leap and compete to be the best in CME Group futures trading and win a share of $25,000 in cash prizes or an additional six months to your TradingView subscription. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
5
The 3rd Major Pivot in Gold’s Uptrend - Since Trade War in 2018We just witnessed the start of another pivot in gold when Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. My gold trading strategy has always focused on buying dips while keeping any short-selling opportunities short-term. The chart above clearly illustrates three major V-shaped formations in gold. After each tariff or trade war, a V-shaped pattern formed in the same month the policy was initiated, followed by a subsequent uptrend. Recently, I published a video analyzing other significant tariffs since the U.S.-China trade war began in 2018. We observed a consistent pattern: after each tariff or trade war, the same month of policy initiation saw the formation of a V-shaped trough, followed by an uptrend. This time, the V-shaped trough occurred during the U.S. presidential election month. The right side of this V-shape was completed with the announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, signaling the expansion of the trade war beyond China. The consequence of trade wars is inflation, and gold has historically served as a leading indicator of this trend. If the trade war persists and intensifies, a continued uptrend in gold seems inevitable. Analyzing the long-term monthly chart using my parallel channel approach, we observed gold prices encountering resistance around $2,600 in September 2024 and beyond. However, by the close of January, the price action provided a clear confirmation of the ongoing gold uptrend. Gold firmly closed above $2,600, reaching $2,835 for COMEX Micro Gold Futures. On the 3-hour chart, I have provided another set of parallel channels as a guide to track support and resistance levels as gold trends further. As gold prices continue to climb, their notional value can become quite large for retail traders. COMEX Micro Gold Futures, being 1/10th the size of the regular gold contract, is a better option for me when the next buying opportunity arises. Recently, CME launched a new contract—a pocket-sized one-ounce gold contract. One key to successful trading is selecting the right contract size for oneself, which is crucial for effective risk management. Once again, my strategy for gold remains the same: focus on buying dips while keeping any short-selling opportunities short-term. Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful: Gold Contracts: Gold Futures & Options Ticker: GC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 er troy ounce = $1.00 1Ounce Gold Futures Ticker: 1OZ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by konhow
Gold Update: $3,000 Is Not the Final DestinationGold futures broke above minor consolidation, so the map should be updated. Wave 3 becomes extended (blue small waves) and it is looking to test the trendline resistance near magic $3,000 level. But that's not all as we didn't see wave 4 yet. It should be complex to alternate wave 2, which was simple. Wave 4 could hit the $2,500-2,550 area to complete correction. We can measure it after wave 3 will be completed. And finally, wave 5 is usually extended in commodities. It could be huge, wave 3 already travelled over $1,000, imagine where wave 5 could rocket then. It will depend on how deep wave 4 would retrace first. Stay tuned, share your thoughts below, lucky trades to all of you!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by aibek
Leap Ahead with a Bearish Divergence on Gold FuturesThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Gold Futures TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition is an opportunity for traders to test their futures trading skills. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Gold Futures (GC) and Micro Gold Futures (MGC). Register and participate here: TradingView Competition Registration . This article presents a structured short trade setup based on a bearish divergence identified using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and key pivot point levels for confirmation. The trade plan focuses on waiting for price to break below the pivot point at 2866.8 before executing the trade, with clear targets and risk management. Identifying the Trade Setup Bearish divergence occurs when price makes higher highs while an indicator, such as CCI, makes lower highs. This signals weakening momentum and a potential reversal. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) measures price deviations from its average and helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions. Pivot points are calculated from previous price action and serve as key support and resistance levels. The pivot at 2866.8 is the reference level in this setup. A breakdown below this level may suggest further downside momentum, increasing the probability of a successful short trade. The trade plan combines CCI divergence with pivot point confirmation. While divergence signals a potential shift, entry is only considered if price trades below 2866.8. This approach reduces false signals and improves trade accuracy. The first target is set at 2823.0, aligning with an intermediate support level (S1), while the final target is near S2 at 2776.2, just above a UFO support zone. Trade Plan and Risk Management The short trade is triggered only if price trades below 2866.8. The stop loss is placed above the entry at a level ensuring at least a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Profit targets are structured to lock in gains progressively: The first exit is at 2823.0, where partial profits can be taken. The final exit is near 2776.2, positioned just above a UFO support level. Stop placement may vary based on the trader’s preferred risk-reward ratio. Position sizing should be adjusted according to account size and market volatility. Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements Gold Futures (GC) details: Full contract specs: GC Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: 100 troy ounces Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($10 per tick) Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility. Currently around $12,500 per contract. Micro Gold Futures (MGC) details: Full contract specs: MGC Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: 10 troy ounces (1/10th of GC) Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($1 per tick) Lower margin requirements provide access to smaller traders. Currently around $1,250 per contract. Leverage impacts both potential gains and losses. Traders should consider market conditions and margin requirements when adjusting position sizes. Execution and Market Conditions Before executing the trade, price must break below 2866.8. Additional confirmation can be sought through volume trends and price action signals. If price does not break the pivot, the short setup is invalid. If price consolidates, traders should reassess momentum before committing to the trade. Conclusion Bearish CCI divergence signals potential market weakness, but confirmation from the pivot breakdown is key before executing a short trade. A structured approach with well-defined targets and risk management increases the probability of success. For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of discipline, confirmation, and scaling out of trades to manage risk effectively. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
Is this the Pull Back Zone On Gold XAU GC1! In this video I highlight the potential area for a pull back on Gold Using the TR Pocket and Trend based Extension tool . Using these tools combined we were able to establish a zone of perfect confluence for a downside reaction on Gold. Also I use the new Demonstration Cursor released by Tradingview to highlight the levels on the chart of where my fib pulls were made. In addition to the above I noticed after completing the video that we have yearly pivots that are untapped around $2580. CPI on Wednesday may give us the narrative for the reaction up at those highlighted highs and to begin cooling off . I welcome your engagement Boosts comments + follows . Enjoy Ty
COMEX:GC1!
by SJTRADESFUTURES
GOLD (MCX) Beat This!There was a time (2019 around) I considered trading in Gold outright boring! Fast-forward to today, it is a lot more stress-free trading setup. My Gold Trading Strategy Open GOLD (MCX) chart in 5m time frame Apply the Risological Options Trading Indicator (Paid) Follow the Risological trend - Buy in Bullish and Sell in Bearish. This set-up is especially great for those traders who dont mind holding a trade for 15-20 days. It does give you small sized false signals, but look at the chart, the winning trades are massive BIG ones. Just one thing to remember: Whenever you taking GOLD trade using this setup, make sure the expiry of that contract atleast has 15 days time. Wish you all the best and let be gold diggers! (lol)
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by ProfitsNinja
Renewing daily new highs (ATH)... Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (GCL1! 1M chart) GCL1! is renewing daily new highs (ATH). It is not easy to analyze or trade these stocks. Since it is supported and rising near the right Fibonacci ratio point of 1 (2828.6), there is a possibility that it will rise to the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.618 (3395.3) ~ 1.618 (3457.6). However, since it is a state where it is not strange to fall at any time, you should think about a countermeasure for the fall when starting a transaction. - (1D chart) Most chart analysts explain the current chart analysis by substituting issues other than the chart. If you get used to this method, you may find issues other than the chart first without looking at the chart and analyze the chart while being obsessed with your subjective thoughts. If you do that, you may analyze the chart in the wrong direction because you will interpret the chart with your subjective thoughts instead of looking at the chart as it is, so you need to be careful. When analyzing charts, you must first look at the chart and analyze it, and then look for issues other than the chart when you have time. - In order to trade a stock that is renewing its ATH, you should check for support when it shows a downward trend and start. However, since it is renewing its ATH, there is no support or resistance point to check for support. To compensate for this, we use the 5EMA+StErr indicator and the Price Channel indicator. Therefore, when the price falls and touches the 5EMA+StErr indicator or the Price Channel indicator, you can find the trading point depending on whether there is support. - (30m chart) You can trade when it breaks out of the section made up of the Price Channel indicator or the box section made up of the HA-High and HA-Low indicators. Of course, trading is also possible within the box section. At this time, you should be careful that the trend can change when it passes the MS-Signal indicator. When you touch the 5EMA+StErr indicator on the 1D chart, you can check whether there is support and trade. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
COMEX:GC1!
by readCrypto