Long SteelI think we will see a nice bullish move in steel closing above and break of structure on futures, would like to see us retrace to golden pocket.
HRC1! trade ideas
Iron ore futures look heavy after breaking multiple levelsChinese iron ore port inventories are bloated and continue to increase, hitting more than two-year highs last week. When you throw seasonality into the mix, the build is occurring at a time when inventories should be drawing fast. It’s extremely rare, raising questions whether iron ore can hold above $100 when the largest source of steel demand globally – China’s property sector – is on its knees.
From not only a fundamental but technical perspective, SGX iron ore futures look ripe for downside. Having been rejected at resistance at $114 last week, the August 2024 contract has broken the 50-day moving average level, back testing it and then slicing through uptrend support before doing away with horizonal support at $109 on Monday.
Having retested $109 earlier today and failed, a short trade looks in order targeting $102, the low struck in July. The risk reward of selling around these levels is still favourable, although the preference would be to see the price move closer to $109, allowing for a tight stop to be placed above the level for protection. If the trade were to move in your favour, consider lowering your stop to entry level.
DS
Iron ore futures set for another visit below $100?SGX iron ore futures look set for a potential push below $100, breaking a series of downside supports over the past two sessions.
Friday brought a bearish break of the symmetrical triangle futures had been trading in over recent weeks. That was followed up today with the price slicing below $103.50, the low struck on June 11.
With momentum building to the downside and fundamental backdrop darkening due to continued woes in China’s property sector and unseasonably elevated iron ore inventories being held at Chinese ports, the risks look skewed to the downside in the short to medium term.
Traders could sell the break targeting a retest of $97, where futures bounced five times earlier in the year. A stop loss above $103.50 would provide protection against reversal.
DS
iron buddha.The price of red dirt is ready to break down. even with the debasement
of the USD, the price of this commodity has failed to increase.
This colony of the empire (terra nullus) has done well from the plentiful red dirt.
A countries wealth is from its resources . African countries
have always been exploited for this. China's demand for red dirt might
be on the decline.
Maybe a world war might cause this price to spike
as more steel is required to make tanks but then tanks are expensive
and easy targets for $500 drones.
Long SteelWhen the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it tends to diminish the appeal of fixed-income assets due to lower yields, prompting investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. This shift often leads to increased investment in commodities, including steel, as they offer a hedge against inflation and potential for speculative gains in a low-rate environment. For someone bullish on steel, a Fed announcement to cut rates could be particularly favorable, as it not only decreases the attractiveness of bonds and similar investments but also potentially weakens the dollar, making commodities priced in USD more attractive to foreign investors. This scenario can drive up the price of steel, benefiting investors who anticipated the move and positioned themselves in the market accordingly. The broader economic stimulation from lower rates, while encouraging spending and investment, also raises inflation concerns, further bolstering the case for investing in tangible assets like steel that can serve as a hedge against the eroding value of currency.
Looking for a 20% gain +.
We have started to see Mill pricing start shifting upward after a series of decreases.
Iron ore trend downIron ore is the main component for many industries focus in china. China is economically weaker now and for sure it will affect the prices of iron ore. For moment its a sell
Iron Ore/FEF2! ~ Daily Swing Chart (Oct 2023)SGX:FEF2! chart mapping/analysis for med-long term swing trade strategies.
China's Iron (Ore) Dragon lays dormant while the country celebrates Golden Week (Oct 1st-Oct 7th).
Iron Ore Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Coiling like a Steel RollIron Ore Futures coiling like a steel roll in a series of Lower Highs & Higher Lows since October 2022.
Break above 116.60 = Bullish momentum towards 134.85 (38.2% Fib Retracement)
Break below 99.40 = Bearish momentum towards 77.60 (78.6% Fib Extension)
Seasonality typically favours the Bulls running strong into end of year - we'll see if it still rings true this year, given China's current economic woes..
Boost/Follow appreciated.
Futures: SGX:FEF1! SGX:FEF2! COMEX:TIO1! COMEX:TIO2!
ASX: ASX:BHP ASX:RIO ASX:FMG ASX:MIN ASX:CIA
NYSE: NYSE:VALE
Iron ore trend upIron ore has been punished quite heavy due to uncertain about china, however for moment it showed a trend up... is it correction or bull run? we dont know just follow the trend
Iron Ore - Coiling The price of Iron Ore is coiling in a large triangle (blue uptrend & yellow downtrend) and a breakout in either direction is imminent. Bias would most likely be to the upside as there is quite a bit of support - TL and Horizontal - around 98.
Iron Ore Futures (Weekly)Iron Ore Futures (Weekly) - the 128 to 130 level once again acting as a supply zone.
Note the prior long term demand supply zones.
Update: Iron Ore Futures A technical update on the commodity.
- Unwinding from an overbought position on it's weekly chart. This follows a 'doji' candle formation for LAST week.
- This week we are seeing a further retracement at the previously identified supply zone.
- The $113 to $115 level is a potential target range.
Hot Roll Still BullishNo signs of slowing market wide, shortages becoming more apparent again. My next Target 1132-1180 Area, Will Re-evaluate there.
Iron Ore flashed continuation buy signalAdvance in Asia on Monday completed a H&S top failure buy signal
Iron Ore FuturesIron Ore Futures: Trading at more than 2x it’s mean over 200 days + has rallied into it’s declining 200-day simple moving average. Note that the commodity has also rallied significantly over the short term with a gain of 50% off it’s late October 2022 lows.
For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch today.
USD Breakdown - With pairs to keep an eye onIn this video I break down the dollar chart. I quickly go through some fundamental data that's set to come out this week and at the end I give you some trade ideas I'm keeping an eye on.
I hope you enjoy. Please feel free to add anything you'd like in the comments!
We are headed to pre pandemic levels STEEL
Headed to Pre pandemic steel prices, Not sure how long it will take for the wave to hit retail.
Iron ore hits record-low as demand drops By the end of 2022, the price of iron ore is expected to hit their lowest level in three or four years as global demand for the commodity continues to slow down, particularly from China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore.
In recent years, China has been cutting down its iron ore demand especially after the government placed restrictions on the industry to reduce carbon emissions. In 2021, the country's iron ore import fell to 1.12 billion tons from 1.17 billion tons in the prior-year period.
Expectations for 2022 from the production side are no better with Australia, the world's biggest exporter of iron ore, projecting a 0.6% drop in global steel output to 1.947 billion tons.
"Combined with growing global recessionary fears, new COVID-19 outbreaks and weakness in China's housing sector have dampened world steel and iron ore demand in recent months," the Australian government said in its October quarterly report.
A Reuters survey in October showed that prices are expected within the $90/ton to $115/ton range by the end of the year. MetalMiner data shows the price in early 2022 were at $160.30/ton at the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine.
The decline comes despite forecasts of growth in the demand for iron ore through to 2026. The global market for iron ore is estimated to reach 2.7 billion metric tons, while production is expected to reach 3.17 billion metric tons.
Until definite signs of recovery are observed, maybe it is best to err on the side of caution regarding iron ore prices, especially considering the threats of a recession in Europe and the persisting problems in China's property sector, which could heavily impact on the demand for the key steelmaking ingredient.
Iron Prices are multi year lowIron prices are very low currently and it looks like the support is near the current price. Will be interesting to monitor the price and see what has caused the sudden fall, there is a chance it comes from house demands weakening because of higher interest rates, but just my personal opinion.
Iron Ore Prices at Risk as Prices Trade in Descending Triangle Iron ore prices have carved out a Descending Triangle pattern. That puts a breakdown on the table if prices pierce below wedge support. The measured move puts a downside target well below the 90 psychological level, leaving the 2021 low in focus.
SGX Iron Ore Futures - WeeklyIron Ore Futures WEEKLY CHART perspective: The market acknowledging ~$94 as a level of interest which is also seen as a demand-supply zone. Must remain +$90-94 (along with ZAR weakness) for KIO to be supported here.
