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MGC1! trade ideas

2024-10-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - 2800 is close, nothing is stopping this. BTFD. I expect bigger profit taking around 2800. gold comment: I gave the 2800 target a long long time ago and we are close. Only question is, where do you enter new longs? We have a decent channel upwards where the lower trend line is around 2760. Market also respected the 1h 20ema today. We have a big bull trend line from July right above us and that should be resistance until clearly broken. I can’t see this breaking above it, so I would rather buy on pullbacks and I do think there is a very good chance we will see a bigger correction once we reach 2800. current market cycle: late bull trend key levels: 2750 - 2800 bull case: Bulls want 2800, that’s it. Any pullbacks should stay inside the current channel and not go below 2760. The rally has become climactic and we can expect a pullback/correction soon. Invalidation is below 2760. bear case: Bears see the pattern which lead to around 2800 and it’s a big obvious number. Not many want to short this until market has reached it and they see more bulls taking profits. That is why we are currently in a big hurry to get to the target and bears are not fighting it. On the monthly chart this rally is beyond climactic already and I seriously don’t know if Gold ever printed bigger gains in 4 months or even 4 straight big green months at all. This price action is unsustainable and we will see a bigger correction over the next months. Invalidation is above 2810. short term: Bullish and you should not look for shorts until we have touched 2800 and bears build much greater selling pressure. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the breakout around US open above 2770, which was a textbook breakout and good for 160 ticks. Also legit was buying the 1h 20ema, which could have been more profitable but with more risk since your stop had to be wider.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
goldthesis is long, invalidated if unable to hold above pdc at 2755. AM BSL taken out already this afternoon. Gap as been filled from yesterday. 2757.6 will be the telltale if we want to continue to push towards 2760, and London BSL toward all time high. If AM BSL is unable to hold then look to short toward AM SSL AND ASIA SSL. Daily was able to defend 10/25 lows wicking up creating another doji, also an inside bar. We stay in range until we break above 2760.86 or below. The bearish marubozu on 10/23 has had us trading inside a daily bar since then.
COMEX:GC1!
by zaytoven000
Weekly Forex Forecast OCT. 28: BUY GOLD | XAUUSD!This weekly forecast is for Oct 28 - Nov 1st. Gold is still bullish, and BUYS are still the best bet. The formation of the highlighted Weekly and Daily +FVGs confirm the bullish order flow. Buys are in order. I will be avoiding sell setups in this market. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
4
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Clear two legged pullback on the 4h chart. Could be enough for the bulls to take control again and go for 2800 on Monday/Tuesday. If they fail below 2780 again, we could see a more complex pullback down to 2700. Market is clearly still max bullish and I doubt we see better selling until we hit 2800 or even 3000. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish it was and still is. 2800 is the next big target to hit. After 4 very strong consecutive bull bars, you can not hold a bearish thought while the market makes daily new ath. Two upper bull trend lines are still to hit, one of them leads to 2760 and the other to 2800. On the monthly chart we are in a 8 month micro channel upwards without any selling pressure. At some point market will pull back more and we will see a correction but until we see much greater selling pressure, we can not trade on hope. comment: Minor pullback by the bears but they can not get follow through selling and that is why we can only conclude higher prices. We are trading near the top of the bull channel but we can just continue to do so until we hit 2800, which is my next upper target. I do think around 2800 we will see some bigger profit taking. current market cycle: very strong bull trend (trade the channel until it is clearly broken) key levels: 2650 - 2800 bull case: All arguments are on the bull side, again. 2800 is the target. Anything below 2680 would surprise me. I don’t expect much interest from buyers above 2800 though. Invalidation is below 2680. bear case: Bears got nothing. Again. Daily 20ema is at 2700 and the lower bull channel line is not far from that. If bears get there before 2800, that would surprise me and I do not think those two supports have a decent chance of being broken. If they somehow manage to do so, 2620 would be the next support. I do not have any bearish thoughts about this market until we see 2800 and then much more sideways movement to conclude that market found resistance. Invalidation is above 2820. outlook last week: short term: Bullish for 2800+ → Last Sunday we traded 2730 and now we are at 2754. Meh outlook. Still not 2800 but we are probably getting there next week. short term: Bullish for 2800. Again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22 : Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2800 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None chart update: None
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
The 3 Reasons To BUY GoldNow lets look at the gold price... The sentiment on Gold is very bearish but despite that There is a lot of accumulation happening in the futures markets This could be that investors are expecting rapid high inflation Because of the drop interest rates.This could make banks print more US Dollars to inflate there economies This inflation will give power to the dollar but unfortunately the buying power of the poor and middle class will be affected. Gold is very good for preserving your buying power in an economy that is heavily dependent on currencies, 3 Reasons To Buy Gold COMEX:GC1! : -It will store your value -It will protect you against inflation -It will store your buying power The Central Bank of Canada last week cut its interest rates to more than 50 Basis points If this is not a sign of inflation or a recession then I dont know what is. Rocket Boost This content to learn more. Disclaimer: Trading is risky please learn risk management and profit taking strategies. Because you will lose money wether you like it or not
COMEX:GC1!Long
by lubosi
Micro Gold Futures - Long 4H, Previous Price Action MirroringTrade Setup: Continuation to a range fill Entry Setup: Previous low breakout OR flip depends on how steep the bottom wick is of next 1H is. Entry Price: not filled yet SL: 2728 (bellow previous 4H low) TP: 2746 (next major support level, there is an option to take profit on daily flip 2748.9) SL TO B/E: Moving SL to breakeven when price will tap 2744 as it is a minor support. I think that there is a high chance that price will tap 2746 level before making any other move: 1.We are mirroring the move from 22 October. 2.Daily candle does not have top wick. 3.Even if price continue down bellow 2729 level, i think we need to tap 2746 as a liquidity grab before heading further down. Did not entered yet, Waiting for next 1H to provide a entry setup.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by GamblingTux
Part 2: gold10.24.24 when markets make new highs... especially all time new highs.... they can be very difficult to trade. obviously when markets make new highs they're also more expensive and expanding markets such as gold represent large amounts of dollars... and if you don't know what you're doing you can lose money or give back money in ways that can really end up being very stressful for you as a Trader. generally as far as I'm concerned I don't want to be a Buy and Hold when markets are at their all-time highs because most of the time they correct. even if I got in at a much lower price... generally speaking I find it's not a good move to buy and hold every time the market makes a new high.... because I'm thinking I'm going to give money back. markets generally range when they make new highs..... think of these as climactic markets that look phenomenal but they're a setup for significant Corrections. obviously this is not always true but from a practical point of view it's true most of the time from my point of view. if you trade multiple contracts it can be helpful to scale in and out of the market and this can yield a very nice return and maybe less stressful if you're willing to trade reversal patterns and Corrections knowing that the big money generally isn't all in or all out.... they probably scale in and out trading larger amounts of money than you and I would trade. a few years ago on trading view I spent some time discussing my version of scaling in and out of the market. A long time ago when I didn't know how to trade I studied some of that from books that you could buy at Barnes and Nobles and I have to tell you it never works for me because I wasn't ready for it and I didn't really understand or follow the strategies of the people who wrote the books. a few years ago when I was interested in working with only 2 students 1 of whom was a very close friend of mine for many years and the other was her sister.... and for different reasons I started talking about scaling techniques for one sister because she was Trading much more volume and was very aggressive so I thought she could reduce her risk because she was Trading 4 or 5 contracts at times...it and I thought that was too risky.... even though she did very well in her Trading... she was amazing..... and I would find out from her sister what she was doing. but my friend didn't have that kind of money to risk.... so I tried to show her how she might trade using scaling techniques using two contracts so that she could stay in the market longer in a way that it could make you very nice gains with much less risk most of the time.... I found out that if you are absolutely risk adverse you can't trade.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
MGC1! Short Setup - Micro Gold Futures Short (Short Term Trade)Trade Setup: Continuation to a range fill Entry Setup: Previous low breakout OR flip depends on how steep the top wick is. Entry Price: not filled yet SL: 2757.2 (previous 4H high) TP: 2729.2 (next major support level) SL TO B/E: Moving SL to breakeven when price will tap 2734 as it is a minor support. Look like price is going to mirror the move from 21 October. Just got 4H Closure bearish after rejected from 2752-2757 level. Last time price was rejected there he tapped 2729.2. We finished high impact news for today. I`m waiting for next 1H open to create top wick tap 2745-2746 then ill take the flip or the previous 1H lows breakout as a sell stop. Did not submitted trade yet, waiting for next 1H open to provide the entry setup.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by GamblingTux
Part one....... gold as the example of new highs10.23.24 it is very difficult to trade markets that make new all-time highs. I can only guess from my own experiences that this will be a similar experience for other Traders..... the price action is bullish and yet you're expecting a breakout to retest to a lower value because you're waiting for buyers to close their long position to avoid a drawdown.... especially if the market has given you a good return and now you're worried about the market reversing and you would be worried that it will give back all or most of your entry if you took the position that the market made a new high and you should therefore go along.... markets and knowledgeable smart money is aware of the problems associated with markets that make new all-time highs. I will try to make my point of view in 2 or 3 videos.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
GOLD Explodes Past All Targets – Massive Gains Achieved!The long trade on GOLD entered at 76195 has surged with incredible momentum, hitting all our profit targets. The current price stands at 78375, confirming the strength of this bullish run. Key Levels Entry: 76195 – Long entry made as the uptrend was confirmed. Stop-Loss (SL): 76062 – Strategically placed to manage downside risk. Take Profit 1 (TP1): 76358 – Successfully reached, signaling the first leg of the rally. Take Profit 2 (TP2): 76622 – Continued bullish movement hit this target. Take Profit 3 (TP3): 76887 – Strong momentum allowed this target to be met. Take Profit 4 (TP4): 77050 – Final target achieved, capping off a solid bullish trade. Trend Analysis The price has maintained consistent support above the Risological dotted trendline, affirming a robust uptrend. The consistent climb from TP1 to TP4 highlights the power of this movement, with all targets now realized.
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by ProfitsNinja
How to Position if you Missed the Gold RallyGold prices have reached another all-time high, supported by strong bullish momentum. However, the composition of buyers has shifted. While central banks fuelled the previous phase of the rally, institutional investors and retail buyers are now leading. Over the past six months, ETF inflows have totalled nearly $5 billion, and asset managers continue to build net long positions, nearing the peak levels seen during the pandemic. Despite the bullish outlook, higher prices are tempering demand and reducing the potential for future returns. As an alternative, investors can opt for a tactical position using CME Micro Gold futures and the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). RATE CUTS ARE A GOLD DRIVER Over the past four easing cycles, gold prices have appreciated by 10% following the start of Fed rate cuts. This time around, prices are up 5% since the first rate cut in September. That leaves room for further gains as the Fed cuts further. Still, it is crucial to consider that gold prices are already trading at an all-time-high. Higher prices are pressuring further gains and consumer demand. According to Prithviraj Kothari, president of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), gold demand during this year’s festival season in India is likely to be 20% lower YoY in terms of quantity of gold purchased. CENTRAL BANK BUYING NO LONGER THE DRIVING FACTOR Since April, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has halted gold purchases, while Poland and India acquired 24.3 tons and 17.7 tons of gold, respectively, between June and August, exceeding their purchases from March to May. However, the pace of buying from these central banks may be slowing. The latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows a decline in gold reserves by $98 million to $65.6 billion, indicating a slowdown in gold accumulation despite still substantial holdings. One of the largest buyers of gold this year, Turkey, also slowed its pace of purchases as it acquired just 7.9 tons of gold between June and August compared to 27.6 tons between March and May. Source: World Gold Council Additionally, the urgency for central banks to buy gold has lessened. Earlier, rising yields and a strong U.S. dollar prompted increased gold buying. As U.S. interest rates decrease, a weakening dollar is expected. ASSET MANAGERS NET LONG POSITIONING IS NEAR ALL-TIME-HIGH Asset Manager net long positioning has increased consistently over the last six months. It is near the highest level since the pandemic and 2016. Crucially, the increase in long positioning has been driven by both increasing longs and declining shorts indicating bullish consensus among asset managers. SUBSTANTIAL ETF INFLOWS OVER THE PAST 6 MONTHS Gold ETFs listed in the US have accumulated USD 4.9 billion in inflows over the past 6 months. Inflows have grown by more than USD 1.7 billion since the Fed cut rates in September. While substantial outflows were observed on 8/Aug as global markets fell sharply, the decline was reversed in just 2 weeks. Gold ETF inflows tend to follow cyclical patterns, and their current levels are relatively modest compared to previous inflow cycles, which have been significantly larger. Substantial flows to gold ETFs and rallies in gold prices also tend to trigger flows into gold miner ETFs. Though these flows tend to lag flows into gold ETFs by several months. GOLD MINERS HAVE STARTED TO CATCH UP The outlook for gold remains mixed. While bullish momentum is supported by the anticipation of a Federal Reserve easing cycle, gold is already near all-time highs, which is discouraging further investment, particularly from retail investors. A strategic way to capitalize on the later stages of a gold rally is through gold mining stocks. Gold miners typically lag behind gold during rallies, as returns from equities take longer to materialize and involve greater risk compared to direct gold investments. However, the impact of higher gold prices on miners' profitability is clear. In Q2 2024, Barrick, the world's largest gold miner, saw net income rise by 24% quarter-over-quarter, driven by a 13% increase in realized gold prices. Similarly, Newmont's net income increased by 32%, alongside a 12.3% rise in gold prices. Gold miners are also benefiting from easing cost pressures. While costs remain high compared to last year due to inflation and energy-related increases, they improved in Q2, and further reductions are expected based on company guidance. The gold to gold miner ratio is a cyclical quantity that has been trending higher for decades but also tends to mean-revert when the ratio edges to far in either direction. As the ratio is due to cross the 200-week moving average, it may be due for an extended period of decline favouring gold miners. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Gold remains bullish through the Fed easing cycle and strong investment demand provide momentum. However, higher prices are dampening consumer demand and central bank buying is slowing. Further increase in gold is likely, however, further gains may be limited. Gold prices have already realized half of their average increase following a rate cut. Alternatively, a position that is long on gold miners also benefits from rising gold prices. Gold prices, as tracked through gold futures, are highly correlated with gold miners, measured by ETFs like GDX and SGDM, with a correlation coefficient typically near 0.9, though there are occasional period breaks. Since December 2023, gold prices have outperformed SGDM by nearly 20% and GDX by 5%. As the current gold rally progresses, increased flows into gold miner ETFs are expected to support their prices. Additionally, improving cost structures for miners and higher realized gold prices create positive momentum. Investors can hedge a long position in GDX by taking a short position in CME Micro Gold futures. This hedge protects the ETF position against potential declines in gold prices. The smaller contract size of CME Micro Gold futures makes them ideal for precise hedging, particularly given the smaller unit size of ETFs like SGDM. 637 units of GDX (at a price of 43.15 as of 18/Oct) are balanced by a hedge of 1 CME Micro Gold futures contract expiring in December. CME Micro Gold Futures require margin of just USD 1,100 while the GDX leg requires notional of USD 27,470. The position offers multiple income-generating advantages. The GDX ETF provides a net dividend yield of 0.65% (after accounting for the management fee), and the short position in CME Micro Gold futures benefits from contango, which adds approximately 1% per quarter. The payoff scenarios for this position are provided below: MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. 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COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by mintdotfinance