GC Long on Pullback to 2385Gold had a very nice couple of days last week to break out of the descending wedge. It has rejected off of the 2400 level twice now, but I see no change in news or market conditions that would affect it dramatically in the next 24 hours (though, you know, famous last words...)
Gold loves to eat liquidity and then bounce. Currently there are large orders sitting at or just below 2385. I'm going to play a bounce off of this level to continue the pullback. Taking profit at 2394 (3:1 RR) because I'm not sure what it will do at the 2400 level again.
MGC1! trade ideas
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futures Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Strong consecutive bull bars in a trading range but still a lower high. Once bulls break above 2406, market is free to go back above 2440 but I wait for confirmation. Bears not having good arguments here for reversing this. Only a strong 1h close below the 1h 20ema would raise the odds for the bears.
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls keeping it above support but can not print consecutive daily closes above the daily 20ema. Will probably see a breakout over the next 1-2 weeks.
comment: Bulls got the breakout above and 2 good looking bull bars above the daily 20ema. Above 2407 we can expect bears to give up and a retest of 2460 or higher. Market is amazingly symmetrical. 3 tries to drop below 2300 and we are probably seeing the 3rd try at printing above 2477 over the next days. It’s a big trading range and I will long this above 2407 for 2460+ and will short this above 2460, once market turns around again. Maybe bulls can print a higher high or maybe they don’t, it does not matter since you wait for the clear reversal before shorting again.
On the weekly and monthly tf market is having huge tails above the bars and market has not closed a monthly bar above 2350. After this retest of 2460/2500, I expect a deeper pullback to the low of this current bull wedge/channel 2250 and likely even deeper over the next 6-12 months down to the big bull trend line starting 2018, which would be around 2000.
current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2407 is broken. If bulls break above, trading range is expanded again up to 2480
key levels: 2300 - 2480
bull case: Bulls are right below the previous high at 2406 and the move up is strong enough to give the odds here to the bulls. Market tried repeatedly to break below 2300 and could not do it, so bears giving up here and want to short higher for better value. Measured move from Thu/Fri would bring us exactly to 2465. Another reason for this up move is the weekly 20ema which is at 2310 and we missed it by a couple of points.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Bears failed 3 times at 2300 over the past 4 weeks and now want higher prices for better shorts, which means they are mostly giving up. They know that we are in a trading range for 3 months and the r:r for shorts above 2460 is much better than for the bulls. Bears need to keep the monthly closes below 2350 or risk attracting more bulls buying high.
Invalidation is above 2510.
outlook last week:
“short term: Neutral. Play the triangle.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2339 and now we are at 2397. Perfect outlook.
short term: Neutral until break above 2407. Bullish above
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged
current swing trade: Will go long above 2407 and look for shorts above 2460.
Chart update: Removed bear trend lines.
Gold Bullish 6 Year OutlookPast chart history shows gold price went into a bear market from 1980 to early 2000's and again in 2011 to 2020. Currently, we are trading in the bull cycle which lasts on average 9 to 10 years. Analysts, projected a price of gold to hit 2500 by the end of this and we seem to be right on track. Price is trading inside of a bull flag where buyers and sellers are repositioning themselves. What will drive the price of gold higher by the end of this year? What about the year after that and so on?
Looking back further on the weekly chart a cup and handle technical pattern is breaking out. Projected price of this breakout caps out at around 3010. Will be interesting to see if and how the price action of this commodity will reach 3k by 2030.
GC/Gold 1H Buy Idea 6/15/24Price has broken the trendline and has now retested on the other side with a hammer forming as the market closed. Looking for price to continue bullish into next week.
Keep in mind that price could very well break below the trendline again to form a M with the double top that is possibly forming as well. BUT I'm leaning more towards the buy because of price currently coming to the 1/4H Highs from 6/12/24
**This is for educational purposes only and this is not financial advice because I am not a financial advisor.**
US Dollar Bearish So can the HOUSE GO LONG on GOLD now...?COMEX:GC1!
11 When I was a child, I talked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I put the ways of childhood behind me. -1 Corinthians 13:11
4th of JULY Narrative I am creating on here on GOLD.... As the US Dollar continues to perform Bearish on the HTF's we could possibly catch a LONG Play on GOLD... I have given a well detailed video here on why I believe we could be going LONG!!
***In order for me to enter the Market LONG... I need to see the break and close above the 15m CHoCh level ($2370.5) with confirmed candle closures on the 30m TF N below.... This is the only way I'll enter the market LONG and targeting the unmitigated 4Hr indecision candle above....
1) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with...
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
GC - Gold. 1hr MarketmetaSoon there will be explanation call outs above each candle that I'm referencing, its if/then statements to guide my thinking and will likely do more 5min private charts and less 15min ones. I'd like to speak to both day traders and investors so as I post these I'm noting how I can show off and adapted level -i.e. A daily level has a fractal pattern trail it leaves behind like notes to read for traders to know where in the ledger they are. We call this Range Finding or going down in timeframes. - to show off an adapted level I might make the line opacity less and paired with the notes later any reader will get the picture.
the goal is to only mark the FS candles first - get to know them. recognize them and start talking to yourself in IF/THEN statements. If this FS has been tested , then the candle that tested it will have a FS candle to ladder off of either on the same timeframe or lower. If that candle holds, then... if not.. then...
gold spot or mcx update edu. pur.gold spot eys on 2365$ stya abv than looks 2374--85+++++ where support 2347$ blw will mkt dwn possible 2340-331@ now eveng big data ahead also so be cautions in mcx stya abv 72577 thna looks up side 72720--72900-++++++++ where support 72220@ only blw mkt will correct more in live session data time
Gold: One Last ClimbGold has slowed its newest upward move, but we assume the precious metal will not give up. Indeed, we expect it to realize even stronger (corrective) gains up into our turquoise Target Zone between $2510 and $2631 to finish the turquoise wave B. However, the turquoise wave alt.B could have already concluded below our Target Zone. In this 40% likely case, the price would fall directly below the support at $2285 (without reaching the Target Zone).
Will GC continue the consolidation? Long @ 2330GC has been consolidating for days. I have a long bias per my previous idea . Until that changes, I will continue to play the range with a long bias.
Therefore, taking a long at 2330 with a stop below the recent lows (2327.4) at 2327.0. If we go below that I'll consider looking for a short down to a retest near 2300.
MGC - Buy - 06/30/2024- What is the trend?
• Bullish
- 1H: Is price touching a key fib level (yellow)? (Gold is tricky so look for .382 and .786 levels too)
• Yes
- Does 1H supply/demand align with key fib level?
• Yes
- 1H: Is price above(bullish)/below(bearish) the 20 EMA, resisting the 20 EMA, or crossing the 20 EMA?
• Yes
○ 1H: Is Volume at or above average (MA) at this time?
• No
- 1H: Is RSI pointing in trend direction or above(bullish)/below(bearish) the 50 line?
• Yes
Plus:
- Is 1H supply/demand aligned with 4H OB/supply/demand area?
• Yes
• No
- 15M: Is/has price touched 1H zone or fib level?
• Yes
- 15M: Is there RSI convergence/divergence?
• Yes
- 15M: Is price above(bullish)/below(bearish) the 20 EMA, resisting the 20 EMA, or crossing the 20 EMA?
• Yes
○ 15M: Is Volume at or above average (MA) at this time?
• Yes