Finally we have seen a minor confirmation for Downtrend. #GOLDits been several days the market was undecisive and chaotic. Finally its coming to a normal shape and trend. As always, technical traders are the first to notice the moves...
MGC1! trade ideas
Gold Futures analysis 2024/09/09
COMEX:GC1!
Notice: The points are only valid from 2024/09/09 to 2024/09/20
What we have now?
1. Current price: 2530
2.The key support and resistances level:
2570
2535
2485
2420
2310
Future Price movement
60% chance: The momentum today is still pretty strong, and I’m expecting a of another push towards the resistance level at 2570.
40% chance: Moving back to 2500, and start moving back from 2500 to 2485
Trade safe!
Looked at about five markets9.9.24 there were some great moves at the end of last week and there were great reversal areas this weekend on Sunday especially with the ES and this follows the previous video when I predicted that the es would go down about 100 points. I botched up the silver on this video a little bit but it made a real nice movement lower and came down to support ... but I'm not quite sure if it's going to go higher or lower... so I talked about that on the video. I left some other Marcus that we've been following to be videos maybe later today or tomorrow.
[Daily Bias] Gold - Mon 09092024 - Selling dayAfter a significant drop on Nonfarm Friday, I'm looking for selling opportunities today. There are two potential scenarios:
If the price rallies up to the previous Value Area Low (VAL), I will look for a selling opportunity once it starts to drop again.
If the price cannot be rejected at the previous VAL, I will consider selling at the latest Developing Volume Point of Control (DVPOC)
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Neutral. All bull wedges broken but the broad bull channel continues. Market only moved sideways, so no deeper meaning to this. Bears could not get a single daily close below the daily ema. Unless that changes, bulls are heavily favored to try 2600. Bears are only allowed to speak again once they have a daily close below 2500.
Quote from last week:
comment: Weekly inside bar. I am not lazy but I do not see any value in making up more words to fill the page so you can stay busy longer reading this. Market is neutral around 2530. Bulls need a daily close above 2570 and bears one below 2500. That’s it. Structure is still bullish. We have a big bull wedge on the weekly/monthly chart, nested bull wedges on lower time frames and sort of a bull channel upwards. I very slightly favor the bears to test 2500 again but only because bears closed last week at the lows. Daily ema held for 3 weeks now and there is no reason why it should break now and we are only 10 points above it.
comment: 4th week between 2500 and 2570. 3rd consecutive bear bar on the weekly chart but does that mean this is bearish? Hell no. Bears still have no daily close below the daily ema and until that changes, bulls are in control but only barely anymore. The longer a trading range continues, the more neutral the market becomes and the odds for both sides are 50/50 again. No deeper meaning to this until we break below 2500 or above 2570.
current market cycle: Trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months. Bulls are currently still trading above the previous highs, which is sort of confirmation of the breakout but I am not 100% convinced. Need a daily close above 2570 for that. —unchanged
key levels: 2400 - 2570
bull case: Bears not doing enough so bulls are happy to continue. They want 2600 next and have all arguments on their side as long as they stay above 2500.
Only updated 2517 to 2500. Still unchanged bull case for weeks now.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. Exactly the same sentences as last week. —unchanged
Invalidation is above 2570.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2527 and now we are at 2524. Hope you did not longed the highs or shorted the lows. Spot on outlook that was.
short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient. —unchanged because we moved 3 points from Friday’s close to Friday’s close.
medium-long term: Above 2570 I will update this. Until then we are in a trading range 2400-2570.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed bull gap to 2490. It’s still there on the weekly but it currently does not help with the daily/weekly updates.
GC1! - Sep 9-13 AnalysisMonthly :
Monthly CRT (bearish) in progress.
ERL -> IRL. Mostly likely IRL would be the monthly volume imbalance co-inciding with the 50% (2487.1) of the previous monthly candle.
Overall monthly PA is still bullish. Hence multiple confirmations needed for bearish scenario.
Weekly :
last week completed the ERL-> IRL on weekly reaching the weekly fvg (in blue) and bouncing from there
The bounce was also from 61.8% of the last 3 week's range which was expected but additional rejection was seen from weekly Volume imbalance (in red)
weekly chart is neutral as of now. Need to see reaction of price at 50% and OTE of range to confirm any long or short bias
Daily :
Daily chart is also neutral with a slightly bearish bias as price looks to reject from the bearish daily OB.
However would need a strong displacement early in the week (Mon/Tue)on the down side to confirm the bearish scenario.
4 hour:
The 4h chart is seen consolidating in a range.
We need confirmation here to confirm our bias on either side.
Summary :
Monthly action shows bearish conditions, but we need confirmation on lower time frames to confirm our bias. Most likely wait and watch for price to give a confirmation before engaging further. However range traders are most likely to find quick opportunities if the setup presents itself.
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT Gold - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Gold (GC)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials around max short of last 2 years = bearish.
True Seasonal: Seasonal down to October.
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not yet confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Non-Farm Payroll 9.6.2024 Gold TrdeThis video goes over how Non-Farm Payroll was traded. In this video I go over how to enter the trade and close out partial to get your DAILY PAYCHECK. Then let a few runners go, so you can get a MONTHLY BONUS check every month. The runners get you extra profit on the trade as well as add up over the month.
Thanks for watching. I hope you enjoyed the video. Please, feel free to share it.
- Money Duck - Butch
Akcapitals Gold Market Analysis: NFP News ImpactAkcapitals analyzed the gold market in response to the upcoming NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) news release. The analysis suggests a potential downward sweep in prices to the range of $2537 through $2528 before the market reacts to the news. This movement could signal volatility, as the market may adjust before deciding its next direction following the NFP release. Traders should watch for reactions around these levels for signs of a potential shift.
[Daily Bias] Gold - Fri 09062024 - Dropping to the POCYesterday, the price experienced a significant rally and reached the naked Point of Control (POC), where it currently appears to be holding. We anticipate a potential retracement to test a key support zone below before making another move.
The price may decline if the previous POC holds.
Alternatively, the price could rise to test the previous Value Area High (VAH) before potentially dropping again
DO YOU THINK GOLD WILL BUYLooking at how this week played out, do you assume we will still see a rally in the GOLD FUTURES to the BSL ?
Lmk what your thought are
#KeepCleanCharts
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE SHORT from WEEKLY Resistance $2,550.0?COMEX:GC1!
“Failure was a key element to my life’s journey.” -Paul Tudor Jones
Family as we get ready to Kickstart this new month / new trading week, I hope everyone is well prepared for battle! Nothing is expected to come easy! We work with skill and efficiency to come out on TOP!!! Remember we are in the business of Management!! Mastery of our SYSTEM is our #1 AIM. Here in this video I went into gr8 detail as to why I believe we can catch SHORT from WEEKLY Resistance Level ($2,550.0) here on Gold. This Level lines up perfectly with a 1Hr Indecision candle right before Major Sell Volume entered the Market and took price lower breaking and closing underneath Red Line Consolidation EQ Level ($2,538.5)
*** Now If and when we can get the TAG of price ($2,550.0) Weekly Resistance Level, my target for EXIT will be Minor S&R Level ($2520.0) roughly 300pts in our favor SHORT. This trade can give us easily a solid +2.5-3R Portfolio Gain depending on your STOP and risk appetite!
1) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with.
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to MANAGE the downside costs of printing HIGH SIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
ASCENDING TRIANGLE IN GOLD Gold (XAUUSD) 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Pattern: Ascending Triangle
Breakout Level: 72,250
Potential Target: 200-400+ points
Market Sentiment: Gold prices stable in India; Silver increased on MCX.
Key Indicators:
Gold is forming an ascending triangle, signaling potential bullish momentum.
A breakout above 72,250 could indicate a significant upward move.
Risk Management: Monitor closely and ensure to set stop-loss levels.
Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis and not financial advice. Please conduct your own research before trading.
IF THIS WILL HELP YOU PLEASE LIKE THE POST ❤️
[Daily Bias] Gold - Thur 09052024 - Dropping to the POCCurrently, the price is at the Point of Control (POC) from Tuesday's declining session. If Wednesday's Value Area High (VAH) is able to hold, the price may drop further to test the Value Area Low (VAL), potentially leading to a significant decline towards the naked POC below
GC overnight means Guten Coin I like the structure. Set it and forget it. Will wake up with some gold coin. Or a Loss. Either way, if you have good risk management you can manage a good nights rest. Trade safe. Cheers!
This is Wyckoff VSA - Weakness Appears On Up Bars - No DemandIn this short video, Author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money", Gavin Holmes, explains the Law of Supply and Demand on charts but the most misunderstood law of trading and investing, No Demand on an up bar and Potential Hidden Selling on an up bar. Note that in the Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis Method an UP bar is a price bar that has CLOSED higher than the CLOSE of the previous bar. Its the opposite for a down bar which has CLOSED lower than the CLOSE of the previous bar. Note in the Volume Spread Analysis method we do not analyse the open at all (nothing has happened yet!!) but the spread or range is key to the analysis combined with multiple time frames. The inventor of the Volume Spread Analysis method is the late Tom Williams, who was my mentor/teacher for over twenty years.
He passed in 2016 and I dedicate all of my videos to his memory. Thanks for watching, Gavin.
Pre News Analysis - GoldPre 'JOLTS Job Openings' analysis. 09/04/24
HTF took out buyside liquidity, LTF showing bullish pressure. Buy off retracement below 15M MSS.
Gold, copper, silver: A hard or soft-landing conundrumMetals were all lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a hard-landing scenario. But not all metals fell equally. We take a look at gold, silver and copper to sort the longs from the shorts, depending on which variant of an economic landing we could be facing.
[Daily Bias] Gold - Wed 09042024 - Ranging inside VAThe price opened within the previous Value Area, so we have two scenarios today (be cautious of the news in New York):
If the VPOC does not reject the price, it may continue to rally and test the VAH.
If the VPOC rejects the price and the VAL cannot hold, the price may drop significantly, potentially leading to a big move following the news.
GOLD MAY ROLL OVER. PREPARE TO SELL!Monthly:
Just made new all time highs. The August candle closed within the range of the July candle's trading rang. As retracement is naturally expected when swing highs are swept, a pullback is expected.
Weekly:
Failed to make a new high after the previous candle established a new ATH.
Daily:
Price struggled to move higher for 10 days. Friday's candle established a new low of the week.
SSL target points at the recent swing lows.
It's time for a pullback, imo. Not a reversal. I can see a retracement to the Weekly +FVG
highlighted in the video.
Thanks for watching. If you like the video, leave a LIKE and subscribe.
May profits be upon you.
gold versus silver ratioWHO ELSE IS WATCHING THIS ?!?!
Looks like a false breakdown reversing violently to the upside
#gold #silver #ratio
Just a Health Pullback in Gold?
Gold
Technicals - (December - Z)
Gold futures came under slight pressure in the overnight session, with weakness in outside metals, strength in the Dollar, and an uptick in two-year treasury yields also contributing. Futures continue to maintain their upward trajectory, with 'dip buyers' still active in the markets. Futures will need to preserve the August 22 low of 2506.4 and the psychological 2500 in order to keep momentum traders in the markets. Any close below 2484.9 will open the door for a further correction.
Gold (Dec)—Daily stochastics correct from overbought territories, indicating traders maybe unwinding some of their bullish bets. DMI - turned above DMI + , indicating the market is cautious. The average true range (ATR) is 35.2 per day.
For Trend Traders
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Bull Trade Trigger: 2504
Bull Trade Trigger Date: August 12
Trend Reversal Point: 2484.9
Resistance: 2566.2**, 2583.7**, 2601***
Pivot: 2506.4*** (August 22 Lows)
Support: 2500 (Psychological)***, 2484.9 (Trend Reversal Point)***
2467.7 (50 DMA)***, 2400 (Psychological)***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Gold vs Bitcoin?I'm not a huge marco guy or economist but what I do know is patterns and trends. Gold has seen expansion like never before but has it been due to a massive rotation of money out of crypto? 2500 is my next level down followed by 2470.
