Copper Analysis and Forecast (SELL)A technical analysis of a trendline breakout and subsequent retest indicates that a short position on HG futures could be a favorable option at present.
Copper prices dropped to their lowest point in almost seven weeks on Friday, due to a stronger dollar and weakened demand in top consumer China. The rising value of the dollar made metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies, as robust US economic data and high inflation figures raised expectations of extended higher US interest rates. The tepid demand for copper in China's top consumer market and the possibility of increased US interest rates have both contributed to the fall in copper prices, although global supply disruptions have helped limit the decline. As of 0817 GMT, the three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (HG1!) fell by 0.4% to $8,863.50 a tonne, and the most actively traded April copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (HG1!) closed 0.9% lower at 69,610 yuan ($10,027.66) per tone.
demand in China post-Lunar New Year holiday hasn't bounced back as much as some had hoped, indicating weakened support from the demand side. Moreover, the Yangshan copper premium (SMM-CUYP-CN), which reflects the demand for imported copper in China, is down 85% from October last year, standing at $22.50 per tone on Thursday.
Considering the technical analysis of trendline breakout and retest, a short position on HG futures could be a good trading opportunity for investors.
