QC1! trade ideas
Time to look at Copper longs againHaving rode the last leg higher in Copper nicely it has now pulled back into interesting levels again. If you are believer in the inflation trade (I am) then these sorts of pullbacks present decent opportunities to get back on board.
Long 4.53
Stop 4.28
Tgt 5.20+
Rtn/Risk 3:1
COPPER Commodity Trade LONGCopper prices rise when the economy is thought to be growing and needing more electrical
infrastructure while they fall when bearish indicators might project a recession. With that in
in on the 15-minute chart I missed a trade in the junior copper miner ETF this week. I have
now placed COPJ on my watch list and will not miss it again when it falls to support and
retraces. I am looking at the aluminum and finished steel subsectors as well. FCX is
under a consideration but as a large cap it does not have the volatility of the junior miners.
COPPER Going well according to our long-term plan.Last time we looked at Copper (HG1!), we established our long-term strategy (April 19, see chart below), which involves a new Bull Cycle, through a Channel Up pattern similar to 2020 - 2021:
So far the plan goes flawlessly, as the price hit the top of the (green) Channel Up and is now pulling back. The 1W MA50 is about to complete a Golden Cross with the 1W MA200, the first one since January 11 2021!
On the shorter term (current chart on 1D) the price is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the short-term Support but as with last time, we expect it to marginally break before Copper bottoms and makes a new Higher Low on the long-term Channel Up.
To those who missed an early buy, we recommend entering once the 1D RSI hits its Support Zone. Our medium-term Target is 5.200 (Resistance 1).
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US Copper Futures Soar to Record HighsUS Copper Futures Soar to Record Highs
• Copper futures hit a new all-time high
• Renewable energy, electric cars, and AI bolster copper’s demand outlook
• The outlook for copper looks promising
Copper futures hit a new all-time high
Copper soared to a new record high, continuing a months-long rally fueled by financial investors who have entered the market expecting supply shortages.
Copper prices have been soaring since the beginning of this year, rising by 29% year-to-date. Copper futures at COMEX traded at $5 per pound as of 15 May, marking the highest level since March 2022, when the base metal's price reached an all-time high.
The global copper market is experiencing significant turmoil due to a substantial squeeze in the New York market, where prices hit an all-time high last week.
The short squeeze caused prices on the Comex exchange to reach an unprecedented premium over the LME, prompting a scramble to redirect metal supplies to the US.
Renewable energy, electric cars, and AI bolster copper’s demand outlook
Copper prices have surged recently due to increasing optimism regarding lower interest rates and stimulus measures from top importer China. Additionally, expectations of tighter supplies, resulting from production cuts in China and stricter sanctions on Russian metal exports, have driven buying interest in copper.
This surge in copper prices is primarily driven by its crucial role in growing industries, including electronic vehicles and AI chip manufacturing. This growing demand is particularly pronounced in China, whose economy is still regaining momentum in these key industries. Demand is outpacing new supply for now, furthering the rapid rise in futures prices.
The Chinese market is expected to see inventories withdrawal soon with exports rising," Gong Ming, an analyst with Jinrui Futures Co, said to Bloomberg.
Outlook for copper looks promising
According to S&P Global: "Copper prices are anticipated to ascend in the long term as a result of the clean energy transition, notwithstanding prevailing short-term apprehensions." The organization forecasts that copper demand will double, reaching 50 million metric tons by 2035. The most significant demands are expected to emanate from the US, China, Europe, and India.
According to Statista, total copper mine production amounted to approximately 22 million metric tons in 2023, up from 16 million metric tons in 2010. Projected growth suggests that worldwide production will reach 30 million metric tons by 2036, assuming production continues at the same pace. However, this projected increase falls significantly short of the anticipated surge in demand.
Meanwhile, the copper mining industry is set for a slowdown in the upcoming year. A report by Goldman Sachs indicated that investment in mining companies in 2022 was nearly 50% lower than the expenditure in 2010. Disruptions in copper mines, often occurring in Latin America, could result in a widening deficit in copper supply from 2024 onwards.
Africa the new Chinese Copper ColonyThis day has seen the price differential between the COMEX and the London Metal Exchange (LME) seen as a support for the consolidation of the UK market. The copper market has been experiencing tensions due in part to the closure of one of the most important mines in Latin America located in Panama, coupled with the reduction of production forecasts from several suppliers. China's focus on lending, investment and trade with Africa as a whole has generated a beneficial exchange in which billions of dollars have been committed to construction projects led by President Xi's Silk Road initiative. Chinese investments in Africa increased by 114% according to Australia's Griffith University, where their focus is highly concentrated on extracting minerals for the energy transition and China's plans to lead and revive its own economy. Such trade also requires oil, agricultural and manufacturing products, as China's deficit has ballooned. Public-private infrastructure development (PPP) loan agreements appear to be China's channel for acquiring raw materials in exchange for finished goods.
Recently, the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank, reported that investments from 2023 to 2025 have been increasing to $11 billion, of which $7.8 billion went into mining, such as the Khoemacau copper mine in Bostwana, which China's MMG Ltd acquired for $1.9 billion, as well as lithium and cobalt mines in countries such as Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The hunt for critical minerals has also extended to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the Chinese government is developing the Atlantic coast corridor called the Lobito Corridor, to send metals from Zambia to Congo, the development of the Nairboi Expressway, the development of automobile tracks in Kenya or the railroad line that was cancelled in Uganda. What can be detected in the Chinese economic model is the generation of a hyperdependence of “colony-metropolis” that was previously occurring with European countries such as France, or the United States in those countries, and this control of monetary power is being transferred to China.
Looking at the July copper futures chart, there has been a gradual escalation in price since February, where major African contracts with China through the BRICs began to be backed by Gold and intensified, and this forced the repatriation of millions of dollars sitting in fort nox bunkers and respective domestic warehouses in the US.
It would not be unusual to see a price contraction to previous areas of 383 because the demand for copper has been able to match pure speculation prices of 2022, where there is no real demand to cover that supply, because none of the technology consuming countries are at their best. This, added to the inflation problem, may be affecting and causing copper to remain bullish, just like the rest of the metals. But not because of real market demand, but because of inflation. Its high of 519.75 could be pierced again because of inflation, but as soon as inflation is corrected if market demand remains as poor, copper will fall in price to plummeting lows. In any case, a bullish continuation is very feasible in the short term.
Ion Jauregui - AT analyst
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Copper: The Next Big Boom - Prices Could Skyrocket to $40,000Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand predicts that copper prices could surge to $40,000 per tonne in the coming years due to soaring demand. Currently priced at around $11,000 per tonne, copper has already seen a 20% increase this year. The demand is driven by the electrification of various sectors, including electric vehicles, renewable energy sources, military uses, and data centers.
Andurand, who manages approximately $2 billion in assets at Andurand Capital, forecasts this dramatic rise based on the doubling of demand growth for copper. He acknowledges that although a supply response is expected, it will take more than five years to materialize. This sentiment is echoed by former Goldman Sachs executive Jeff Currie, who also predicts significant price increases, albeit to a more conservative $15,000 per tonne.
The transport sector's copper demand is projected to grow over 11 times by 2050, with electric vehicles alone requiring substantial amounts of copper wiring. Additionally, the expansion of the global electricity grid will necessitate a 4.8-fold increase in copper demand by 2050.
The copper supply gap is projected to reach 10 million tonnes by 2030, as per BloombergNEF estimates. Despite not being widely known in the US, Andurand has a solid track record in commodities trading, with his funds experiencing an 83% increase in value this year.
The rising copper prices reflect broader trends in the metals market, driven by strong demand and historically low inventories. Significant growth in copper demand is also anticipated from developing countries, particularly China, India, and Indonesia, which are experiencing exponential increases in consumption.
HG: 5/6 Daily bars are dojis, how will 7th close?Took the short on HG but now looking at daily chart I cant help but notice that 5/6 bars are dojis.
The bull leg up before the sell of was made up of choppy bars.
We are 5% Down in a few hours.
I can't help but think today will close as a doji.
Taking a small trade just to feel it out.
HG Copper Futures LONGHG - copper demand is higher this year as the economy expands globally. On the 60 minute chart
price hit a high pivot on May 15th and pulled back in a standard Fib 0.5 fhsion. Price
has touched the upper boundary of that support three times and has now printed a wide range
green HA candle. I believe that this is a reversal pattern and will take a long trade here
targeting the pivot high mentioned. This is a 5% expectant profit amplified by the leverage
of a futures trade.I see this as a safe trade of a commodity that has a bullish bias overall.
I am also looking for some increased volume at this juncture to assure that some buying
momentum is coming into the market.
Copper Prices Refresh All-Time HighsTechnicals Suggesting a Correction to Support for Copper
The metals complex has been on fire; copper futures (COMEX) recently touched gloves with a fresh record high of $5.1990 per pound. This followed last week printing its largest one-week gain (+8.3%) since early February 2022.
You may also note that the metal shook hands with a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio at $5.1060 (many harmonic traders will view this as an ‘alternate’ AB=CD ratio) and, as of current prices, price action is forming what many technical analysts will recognise as a bearish shooting star candlestick formation.
Should a correction occur from current prices, as suggested by the chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) closing in on levels not seen since May 2021 (indicator resistance at 83.82), support warrants attention at $4.8890.
What is Driving the Metals Markets?
This is a tricky one at the moment.
The surge in copper could be based on the expectation of Chinese demand. According to a post from Reuters, ‘China's finance ministry plans to start raising 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) in long-awaited, long-term special treasury bonds this week to raise funds it will use to stimulate key sectors of its flagging economy’. Fuelling further buying, of course, will be speculation and the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO).
It is also interesting to see the price of gold refresh all-time highs of $2,450 simultaneously, as copper and gold tend to offer different economic signals. Some desks claim central bank buying is behind the rally in gold.
HG Copper Futures- Short to Long SetupHG is on the 30 minute chart with a set of EMAs ( 7- blue 20-red and 100-black) ascended
6 % in 7 days from the morning of 4/23 to the evening of 4/29. This is traded with a leverage
of 25. A short trade taken on the reversal is now impending closure. The short falls faster than
the long climbs and will yield about another 6% in 24 hours or so. The trade is setup to close
when price crosses the EMA7 and stays above it for three consecutive candles ( 90 minutes).
I long trade will then be contemplated to continue to take full advantage of the volatility.
The RSI indicator should show a rise toward the 50 level to validate a long trade and some
green buying volume candles should print. Rinse and repeat.
Another of my masterpieces on $COPPER this time long time comingI've been meaning to revisit NYSE:HG for a while now and finally have done so; there have been some very interesting visits to black swan territory on this chart and the short term targets after breaking out from another of those green channels could really be quite high (see 20y ago)
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
HG Futures, Copper's Potential Rise: Monthly, Weekly, Daily.Monthly is winding up for a big drop or huge jump.
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily shows price winding up potentially the rest of the year. So I will look towards year end for the fireworks, that will decide if our pent up momentum will release upwards or downwards.
My gut says inflation will send it upward in the near future.
Potential Copper Futures Retracement: 830 in SightCopper futures surged to 864, but signs of exhaustion hint at a possible pullback.
Key points:
Trend: Bullish momentum is strong but showing signs of fatigue.
Support/Resistance: 830 is solid support; 864, a stubborn resistance.
Indicators: RSI suggests overbought conditions; watch moving averages.
Volume: Declining volume hints at weakening bullish sentiment.
Chart Patterns: Look for signals like double tops for confirmation.
Conclusion: Stay cautious; 830 pivotal. Manage risk wisely.
(Note: This is not financial advice. Always do thorough research or consult a financial advisor before trading.)
HG1! Copper breaks major trend line, GDP slowing is realCopper break major TL. Going lower folks. Productivity and growth slowing=RECESSSION. Future orders DOWN. Give me a break Powell, you know what a soft landing is? Its misery slowing the economy too slowly. Its recession for longer and deeper than you intend, because you lacked the Kahunas to do it painfully. Rather than just rip the bandage off, you are slowly tearing it day by day, bit by bit, so we have to endure the pain and misery for "higher/longer". We got from 9 to 3.5 pretty quickly, but from here to 2% will be agony, take years, ruin banks, be the excuse to bring in the reset, ruin our freedoms and lives, all because your pride didn't let you just raise rates again, and again until, we got to 2% finally, QUICKLY.
Watch for guidance for all major corporations (and small IWM) to be DOWN. Commercial housing (multi family) down, less new construction , less copper needed. There is still a housing shortage, but rents are coming down because finally the new builds are coming online. So they have demolished most of the old trailer parks, and the golf courses, the towns their in have rezoned for higher density, the towns will reap more taxes, but they wont use any of that cash to improve anything so all these EXTRA people can fit, so we all suffer.
Save commercial real estate (and residential) and the regional banks, and the economy, and lower rates now morons! Or raise them get to 2% and rip the bandage off, so we can reset. But this soft landing is agony, and only serves to somehow protect your pride, while you error, and ruin the economy. Copper knows. This isn't good. Soft landing or no landings isn't good, LAND ALREADY, GET IT OVER WITH AND GET ON WITH IT!
copper is my focus, the movie is playing outCopper, and doctor copper, usually tells the story. Its the pulse of the economy. This Trend line event is everything. Bounce or break... I think you can say the same for the fake economic numbers the government is putting out there. You can only tell a lie so many times, before it does NOT become the truth, it becomes an embarrassment to the publishers. Each publishing of govt published "facts" gets adjusted big time the month after. Why can't they just tell the truth the first time. FED tells a story today too. Do they prep for the next election, use words to try to get a democrat elected, do they kick the can down the road, or do they do whats good for the people and focus on whether do they lower rates, or raise? Lowering rates saves the Yen, the regional banks, the commercial (and by extension the residential) housing market, and the economy, short term, until November 4th. Then it sparks hyper inflation, and the match is called "greed", "malfeasance", "election interference", and many other names. Brics will love it, sending gold and silver and commodities to the moon. Voter's IRA's will love it, for now. The real unemployment numbers come out next time, because that will be their justifier to lower rates, saying these numbers lag, saying they HAD to do it. This is just what some have been saying about, hey, don;t you see, when the recession actually gets named, and the unemployment numbers are told for real, and they have to actually lower rates when inflation is not under control... The wild fire called hyperinflation will crush the economy, bring it to its knees, and justify the "reset", the new financial system. The movie is playing out before our eyes.
