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Gold Is Trading Near Record Highs. What Does Its Chart Say?Gold TVC:GOLD hit a record high recently on global trade tensions before pulling back following release of President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. What does fundamental and technical analysis say could be next for the precious metal? Let’s check it out: Gold’s Fundamental Analysis The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank recently revised its well-known GDPNow model for first-quarter gross domestic product to a -2.8% seasonally adjusted annual rate. However, the bank also estimated Q1 GDP at just -0.8% when adjusted for rising U.S. gold imports vs. exports. Wait a minute! Do you mean that the Atlanta Fed runs two GDP models -- one that includes the cross-border gold trade and one that doesn’t? Yes, I do. U.S. gold exports have been rising because some of the world’s central banks -- most notably, China and Russia’s -- have become large net buyers of physical gold. Both countries are members of the so-called “BRICS” -- a group of non-Group of Seven nations like Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (hence the “BRICS” name). The BRICS have often hinted at creating some kind of a monetary union that would produce a single currency to rival the U.S. dollar’s current status as the world’s “reserve” form of cash. This new BRICS form of money could either exist alongside each country’s own national currency or actually replace them (along the lines of what happened with the European Union’s creation of the euro). Now, EU nations participating in the single-currency zone have had to largely surrender their monetary sovereignty. That's something I really could never see China, Russia, India or Brazil being willing to do. That said, there’s talk of the BRICS creating something like the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights. But unlike SDRs, the BRICS would back their new currency by a hard asset like gold. That could put the U.S. dollar on the defensive. Such a currency could become the preferred unit of trade for global commodities, or at least some global commodities between certain trading partners. Gold’s Technical Analysis Coupled with all of the recent global trade tensions, the central-bank purchases have created incredible demand for gold – boosting the metal’s price. Let’s the chart for check out Comex gold futures COMEX:GC1! going back to September 2022 and running through midweek last week: Readers will see in this chart of Comex front-month gold futures (presented in the form of one continuous contract) that the metal been in a steady uptrend for more than 2-1/2 years. I’ve captured this in a Raff Regression model above. After testing the model’s lower bound for much of late 2023/early 2024, gold recently brushed up against the model's upper trendline, then broke out. Not surprisingly, Comex gold’s Relative Strength Index -- the gray line at the chart’s top -- is now rather strong and even close to technically overbought territory (above 70). That’s historically where gold futures weaken briefly prior to pushing even higher. (Obviously, past performance is no guarantee of future results.) Meanwhile, the Comex contract’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence index (or “MACD,” marked with gold and black lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom) looks very bullish. The 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with blue bars) is above zero, as is the 12-day EMA (the black line) and 26-day EMA (the gold line). The 12-day line is also above the 26-day line. All of that is typically positive when charting a security. Also note that this contract has been above all three of its key moving averages since testing the 21-day EMA (denoted with a green line above) on March 13. Additionally, the contract has been solidly above both its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a blue line above) and its 200-day SMA (the red line) going back to mid-January. That sort of set-up will often slow down portfolio managers who might otherwise be thinking about reducing their overall gold exposure. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle owned gold ETF shares and physical gold at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. 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COMEX:GC1!
by moomoo
1
Weekly Market Analysis - 9th April 2025Here we are with another market analysis. This time, a bit late in the week on a Wednesday, but it is what it is! We have CPI today and PPI tomorrow, so this should be an interesting week. Overall, gut instinct tells me we would be pushing lower for the DXY, but again, i'm not betting anything on it. I trade the candles, I trade the structure, I don't trade guesses. I hope you find the video analysis useful. Take care this week! - R2F Trading
COMEX:GC1!
by Road_2_Funded
Consider Shorting Gold Amid Continued Volatility - Key Insights: Gold has been experiencing significant volatility, with a recent sell-off despite being in an uptrend. The current risk-off sentiment in the market is leading investors towards safety and liquidity, creating downward pressure on gold. Fed comments and inflation fears are strengthening the dollar, further impacting gold prices negatively. - Price Targets: For a short position next week, consider targeting a decline in prices. - T1: Approximately $2,950 - T2: Approximately $2,900 - S1: Approximately $3,050 - S2: Approximately $3,100 - Recent Performance: Gold’s market performance has been volatile, mirroring broader market trends across various asset classes, including stocks and cryptocurrencies. The initial technical uptrend for gold was short-lived, with recent market conditions driving a significant sell-off. - Expert Analysis: Analysts suggest a short-term bearish outlook for gold, given the market dynamics and current economic policies. The stronger US dollar against commodities is expected to maintain pressure on gold prices. Although gold has served as a temporary safe haven, the rally seems unsustainable. - News Impact: The potential for a BRICS-backed gold currency introduces possible shifts in financial dynamics that could affect demand and valuations. Ongoing global inflation concerns and the dedollarization strategy pose further complexities, emphasizing the role of geopolitical factors in gold's market performance. Investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach and consider gold within a diversified portfolio.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Long term gold bull still good even if near current sell zoneFrom 1970 to 1980 I took 2 different fib extension to project the target sell zone for the blow off top and the price hit the target. I used the same fib extensions to give the target sell zone for the current bull market. Then I looked at how extended was the price from the 12 month SMA and it was 57%. Then I made a channel with the at the 12 month SMA and expanded it by 57% from the current and followed the angle of the 12 month SMA. If the price reaches the target sell zone and also is extended to reach the top of the channel this would most like be the blow off top. There are also other trend channels (gold color) that will give top side resistance. The green box in 2000 is the retrace buy zone and since we do not know the exact current top I drew possible bottom retrace buy zones of the next bear way out in the future and will need to be adjusted. This is not trading advise , just my thoughts.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by nsprph
GOLD HITS RECORD $3,300/OZ – WHAT IS IT TELLING US?Since 2020, stocks and gold have danced to very different rhythms. Initially, equities ran far ahead, but now… the tide is turning fast. 📉 As the equity market sinks into a bear phase, capital is pouring into gold. Just in the last 9 months, gold has surged over $1,000/oz — a historic move rarely seen outside of crisis periods. 💬 We’ve been calling this for over a year: Gold is now the ONLY global safe haven. US bonds are no longer the refuge they once were. Investors are voting with their wallets — and gold is winning. Let’s put it into perspective: ➡️ Over the last 20 years: • Gold is up +620% • S&P 500 is up +580% 📈 Gold is trading like we’re in a modern depression — quietly pricing in risk, instability, and loss of trust in traditional instruments. 🧠 The question is no longer "why is gold rising?" — it’s "why didn’t more people see this coming?"
COMEX:GC1!
by SmartSignalss
GOLD MCX MINOR RESISTANCEGOLDMCX Gold Mcx has seen huge bull run today on 10th April 2025 (Thursday), Looking at the chart it can be clearly seen yellow metal on MCX is trading in upwrad trending channel pattern and around 92400-92500 Channel Pattern Resistance can be observed. There can be some profit booking seen from current levels, One can get out of long positions and reenter long position once GoldMCX closes above 92500, till then book profits on Long positions, or sell Gold MCX with Small stoploss of 92600
MCX:GOLD1!Short
by JustProfitPlay
GOLD - Prepare for Extreme Volatility**Week of:** April 7–11, 2025 **Status:** Parabolic Phase | Euphoria Peaking | Structure Fragile --- ## 🧠 Thesis Gold has shifted from trending to **momentum-driven price action**. We're now in the parabolic stage of the breakout — where belief is at its highest, structure is at its weakest, and volatility becomes the release valve. This is no longer a trend-following environment. It’s a **sentiment-pressure zone** where intraday risk expands sharply. --- ## 🔍 Key Signals - Parabolic curve formation - COT shows aggressive commercial selling - Open interest is peaking with sentiment extreme - Weak closes despite strong highs = possible exhaustion - Structure thin above breakout zone = high whipsaw risk --- ## ⚠️ What to Expect - Intraday **fakeouts and rejection candles** - **Range expansion** in both directions - Emotional breakout chasing followed by sharp reversals - Market-wide volatility spillover if rejection confirms --- ## 🛠️ Strategy Guidance - Avoid breakout chasing — look for **confirmation first** - Fade emotional spikes only after rejection candles - Focus on **tight invalidation and reduced size** - If it holds and extends, trail stops closely — **don’t get greedy** --- > “When price goes vertical, risk doesn’t rise gradually. It explodes.” --- ## ✅ Summary Gold is in its most unstable phase — euphoria is priced in. Whether this is continuation or climax, **volatility is guaranteed.** Trade with precision, or not at all.
COMEX:GC1!
by pharyeh
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 31.3–4.4 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 6th week of the base cycle (15–20+ weeks), nearing the end of phase 1. Market turbulence usually weighs on gold, so the sharp correction on Thursday–Friday, which wasn’t supported by any extreme or pivot forecast, didn’t come as a surprise. That’s what stop-losses are for. ⚠️ The working range of the long position from the March 3 extreme forecast to the March 19 pivot forecast in GC futures exceeded USD12K per contract. The working range from the March 24 extreme forecast to the stop was USD6K per contract. Congrats to those who entered. Special thanks to Mercury retrograde, as the March 24 extreme forecast was its midpoint. The next extreme forecast is on April 7. The next pivot forecast is on April 14.
COMEX:GC1!
by irinawest