GC1! Gold Week of May 18th Hey everyone,
Sharing thoughts on GC1! (GOLD) for the first time ever!
Enjoy and as always safe trades!
QO1! trade ideas
Gold Trend directionGold 96400 has diverged Volume. 97380 to 96215 will acts as resistance zone. We expect Gold to move further in to the zone and then will fall back.
Gold longGoing long on a long awaited trap area of gold.
Gold will take a retracement upto this level.
The sentiment is risk on right now so a dive is expected.
Gold Update: 2 optionsIndeed, the top metal surged well beyond $3,000, as I mentioned in my earlier post (see related post for details).
The price reached a new all-time high of $3,510 before pulling back, as expected.
So far, the retracement has been rejected at the trendline support around $3,123 (futures).
From here, there are two possible scenarios:
1) Blue Labels
The price may have already completed wave 4. If so, we could now see a large wave 5 move to the upside.
This wave could reach the blue target box, which represents 61.8% to 100% of the distance from wave 1 to wave 3, added to the bottom of wave 4.
This target zone lies between $3,700 and $4,100.
Keep in mind that gold is a commodity, and commodities often have extended fifth waves — so the higher end of the blue box is still possible.
2) White Labels
Typically, fourth waves retrace down to the valleys of previous lower-degree fourth waves.
In this case, the market could form another leg down to complete a larger, more complex correction, potentially hitting $2,975 before wave 5 begins.
If that happens, the target for wave 5 may be lower, but with a possible extended fifth wave, it could still reach the blue box area.
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What We Determined Today:
Market structure analysis revealed a key order block, signaling a high-probability trade setup.
Fibonacci retracement levels aligned perfectly with major liquidity zones.
Volume confirmation reinforced momentum, validating our entry and exit strategy.
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Get ready, I think they will increase the price again. I Think they will increase the price again. There we can sell for cheap. Else, all the countries will start having their own gold mine. The one in China discovered, they already knew that lol.
Gold Futures–High- Probability Bullish Reversal at Key Ord Block Key Technical Insights:
Bullish Trend Continuation Setup:
The price is currently trading within a bullish ascending channel (yellow lines). The overall trend is up, and we’ve seen a recent pullback towards key support areas. This suggests the potential for a bullish reversal, setting up for another move towards the $3,300 resistance level.
Order Block Formation:
We have an Order Block (red box) formed at the lower part of the channel. This is a critical zone where institutional buying has previously occurred, which increases the likelihood of price reaction if it revisits this level.
The Order Block represents an area of significant market demand, and the probability of price bouncing higher from here is high, given the solid historical price action at this level.
Support & Resistance:
Support: The $3,235 level has been a strong area of support (orange line), and we are now approaching this zone. A bounce from here, with confirmation, could provide an optimal entry for a long position.
Resistance: The immediate resistance target lies at $3,290, and $3,300 is the major level to watch for a breakout to the upside.
Trade Setup – Bullish Reversal Opportunity:
Entry:
Look for a long position near the $3,235 support (orange line), ideally at the Order Block (red box). This provides a high probability entry for continuation of the bullish trend.
A confirmation candle (such as a bullish engulfing or hammer candle) would be ideal for confirming the reversal.
Target:
The primary target is the $3,290 level, with the potential for further upside towards $3,300 if the bullish momentum continues. These targets align with the previous price action and resistance zones.
Stop-Loss:
A tight stop-loss below $3,220 ensures protection against invalidation of the setup. If price breaks below the lower part of the channel, the trade thesis would be invalidated, and the position should be exited.
Additional Considerations:
Volume Analysis: Volume has been increasing during the pullback, which suggests that institutional buyers are stepping in around the Order Block area. Watching for volume spikes during the confirmation candle will strengthen the setup.
Moving Average Support: The 200-period SMA is providing dynamic support, which is another indicator that the overall trend remains bullish. A rejection from this level could give further confidence in entering the position.
Risk/Reward: With a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:3, this trade setup offers an attractive potential return relative to the risk taken. The reward far outweighs the risk, making it a high-probability setup for a well-managed trade.
Key Takeaways:
This is a high-confidence bullish continuation trade that aligns with the current market structure.
The Order Block provides a solid area of institutional demand, increasing the probability of price bouncing and continuing higher.
A well-defined entry at $3,235, with clear stop-loss and target levels, creates a structured approach to executing this trade.
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Strong Signal Bullish momentum GOLDThere is a break of the channel with strong volume after a consolidation phase that highlights a strong Long position, although if we break the next support combined with a pull back above this new support we might consider looking for the next Resistance that highlighted on the daily frame, nor Fibunnaci retracement for making good decision.
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GOLD/USD TWO SIDE ANALASIS
Market Structure Analysis:
Higher Low (HL): The early structure highlights a formation of a higher low, suggesting a bullish intent during that phase.
Break of Structure (BOS): A clear BOS is marked, indicating a shift from bearish to bullish market structure, confirming a potential trend reversal to the upside.
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Key Zones Identified:
1. Opening Gaps:
Two notable opening gaps are marked, one from earlier in the chart and another closer to the current price action. These zones often act as magnets for price due to inefficiencies in the market.
2. Order Block:
A bearish order block near the recent highs around 3,440 signifies institutional selling pressure. Price rejected strongly from this area, adding credibility to its significance.
3. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
A FVG lies below the order block, denoting an imbalance where price may return to fill. This aligns with institutional trading concepts and often precedes a retracement.
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Support and Resistance Zones:
Resistance Zone: Aligned with a recent swing high and gap, this area around 3,280–3,300 could cap upward moves unless broken with strong volume.
Support Zone: Defined lower around 3,120–3,080, price bounced from here, indicating buyer interest and a potential accumulation area.
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Forecast Scenarios:
1. Bullish Case:
A projected bounce from the support zone with a potential move toward the resistance zone and eventual fill of the opening gap, targeting 3,280–3,300.
This aligns with the retracement into inefficiencies and institutional areas of interest.
2. Bearish Case:
A possible rejection from the resistance zone, leading to a breakdown and move toward the lower target near the support zone around 3,080 or even sub-3,000, marking a deeper correction or continuation of the bearish leg.
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Technical Insight:
The chart showcases a textbook smart money concept analysis using structural pivots, order blocks, gaps, and supply-demand zones.
This approach aligns with liquidity engineering, where price seeks to mitigate imbalances and fulfill institutional orders.
Strength in Precious Metals ContinuesGold and Silver are showing strength starting off the week after showing gains yesterday and today, with Silver up over 2% and Gold up near 1.5% on the session today. Both Gold and Silver had strong moves higher in 2024, Gold most notable due to the market creating a new all time high price. A big component of the rise in Gold prices had to due with the Fed environment, and with potential rate cuts coming this year there could be continued volatility in the metals due to the changing environment.
While metals are seeing nice gains this week, the equity indices are pulling back slightly today with the S&P and Nasdaq being down near 0.5% on the session. There was little data today and for the rest of the week, and the equities seem to be having some selling pressure after 6 straight days of gains for the S&P and Nasdaq. The CME Fed Watch Tool has seen a pattern this year of the rate cuts getting pushed later in the year, and now the market is pricing in the first rate cut in September, where previous expectations had the first cut coming at the July meeting.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Gold turning pointH6 Chart of Gold Futures. I don't see bullishness continuing. with rising yields and maybe temporary DXY bullishness. Respecting H6 Ranges here looking at the reaction around breaker at $3100 to see if were bullish or if we continue lower
Gold May 29th and went through the analysis of gold which I think is going higher. there is also a gartley pattern . gartly looked at that pattern which he called A 222 pattern as your second chance to get into a market that's reversed... and what I mean by that is that the goal had an impulse and went higher for quite a long. Of time and then after it hit its high the market reversed and went lower and created a gartley pattern..... but in this example the market really was a bullish that went quite a bit higher to new highs.... and I believe gartly was looking for markets,,,, as an example, that went higher and then it corrected and then if it had the appearance of an ABCD pattern the way gartley liked it you could jump in and go long for the market to make new highs. now gartly patterns can work in the other direction and you just flip your thinking and trade accordingly. so I'm not exactly sure that this would be the gartly of all gartly that would make huge moves higher on the gold market.... after all this Market hit its very high in the last couple weeks......... even so, it's still a viable reversal pattern in my opinion but I would be a little bit hesitant to bet the farm that is going to make a new high even though people say gold is going to go to 400 or greater. so be reasonable..
Market Closed, Breaking Down Gold Outlook...While the market is closed you take the time to clear you thoughts and reset, preparing for a new week. making notes on what I'm thinking we can expect from Gold the coming week. I'm thinking they want to move bullish but I need to see how they want to play it Monday. Monday needs to break levels and hold above those levels to give more confidence hat they want to push bullish. We should find a entry after seeing that.
Gold 01.06.2025, SundayExpecting bullish price delivery on gold to make a All Time Highs. Before the meltdown on the quarterly Fair Value Gap
GOLD GC /GC GC1! XAU/USD: Arbitrage Oppertunity. Gold Futures (GC1!) – Breakdown Ahead? Arbitrage Opportunity Emerging
🔍 Daily Chart Analysis by Wavervanir International LLC
⚠️ Key Technical Observations:
Descending Triangle Breakdown Risk: Gold has rejected resistance near $3,350 multiple times. The lower highs and horizontal support suggest a descending triangle structure.
Projected Breakdown Zone: If $3,280 support fails, we could see a swift move toward $3,100 or even lower, near the $2,950 zone.
Lower Trendline Magnet: Price appears to be gravitating toward a key trendline formed from April’s breakout, which aligns with the $2,950–$3,000 confluence zone.
💱 Arbitrage Opportunity: GC1! vs XAU/USD vs /GC
There is growing dislocation among:
GC1! (Gold Futures – COMEX)
/GC (Front-Month Gold Futures)
XAU/USD (Spot Gold)
Watch for inefficiencies due to:
🔁 Hedging lag across timeframes (spot vs futures)
💰 Rate differential effects (carry cost, interest rates)
🌍 Currency mismatch in spot vs USD-settled futures
If the spot-futures basis widens unjustifiably, a short GC1! / long XAU/USD setup could exploit mean reversion. Advanced traders might also consider calendar spreads (/GC Jun vs Aug) if volatility compresses.
📊 Probabilistic Outlook:
Scenario Probability Commentary
Breakdown Toward $2,950 55% Technical structure favors bears unless macro shifts occur.
Bounce and Range Around $3,300 30% Compression before Fed/JOLTS/NFP may cause chop.
Breakout Above $3,375 15% Requires macro catalyst—like Fed rate cut, geopolitical shock, or weak USD
🧠 Macro Factors to Monitor:
FOMC & FedSpeak (June) – If rate cuts are delayed, gold could lose momentum.
Real Yields (10Y TIPS) – Rising real yields = bearish gold.
Geopolitical Tensions – Any flare-ups (Middle East, Taiwan) may flip sentiment fast.
China/BRICS Demand – Gold import/export data could signal accumulation or slowdown.
💡 We’re monitoring these inefficiencies for tactical plays under the Wavervanir macro-arbitrage lens. Stay updated for real-time trade ideas and DSS-based execution.
#Gold #GC1 #XAUUSD #FuturesTrading #MacroArbitrage #CommodityTrading #Wavervanir #RiskManagement
Gold (GC) Trade Plan – Watching Key Zones for Reaction Currently watching Gold Futures (GC) as price moves within a defined range.
✅ Buy Zone (Green): Waiting for price to reach this demand area and show a bullish reaction confirmed by order flow before entering long.
❌ Sell Zone (Red): If price pushes into this supply area, I’ll consider a short setup only if there’s clear bearish confirmation on order flow (e.g., trapped buyers, absorption, or momentum shift).
⚠️ No reaction = no trade. I’m simply reacting to what the market gives me, not predicting.
Let the flow guide the entries. 🧠📊
When or how do you take an Entry on 2CR?The answer to the above question is explained within the video, hope it clears any misunderstandings.
Gold Future MCXThe Gold Future Price is Stuck in A Triangle Trend Lines.
There is Good Action Seen from Both Buyers and Sellers. Lets se who wins it.
If the price breaks DOWN the Support Trend Line with Good Volume "THE PRICE CAN TRAVEL DOWN TILL 90000 Levels."
If the Price Breks UP the Resistance Trend Line with Good Volume " THE PRICE CAN TRAVEL UP TILL 95500 Levels."
NOTE: (In My View)
Price Going Down till 90000 is More Likely.....
GOLD SILVER Ratio Charts MCX INDIA MCX:GOLD1! *100/MCX:SILVER1!
This is a Ratio charts ... Which Shows Outperformance of One asset over other ... You have to Buy one and Sell One to full reflect what it is showing ... so Things may not workout It you trade one only ...
It Can be Clearly Seen Gold is outperforming Silver ....
What it is indicating is the main point ...Silver being a industrial metal more demand for Gold could be safe haven buying which means less demand for silver implying less industrial activity bad for economy ... or impending recession in US ... Recently Yield Curves 2s10s inverted in US so ... that would also signal a impending recession which lags by at least by 12 months ...
When reversal comes Chart may change Currently or can be seen on lower time frame it is what it is ....
Similar Things on International/COMEX Charts or Dollar based charts can be seen
Long & Short on Gold gold is approaching a trendline where price can continue going higher or reject again and sell again
Waiting on train line confirmation for goldGold has been in a bullish trend last week. GC just hit higher highs. We’ll see if it breaks the trend-line and continues to the upside or bounces back and changes to bearish trend.
