QO1! trade ideas
Gold had Swept Lows and Filled Bullish Gaps! Reversal next?This is price action that I was patiently waiting for. Now that we have that sweep lows Im looking for signs price want to turn around. It can remain bearish for now. But Im expecting to see something clear by the time we get inside of the killzone.
Gold Selling Continues While Equities Were MixedThe S&P and Nasdaq finished the session today with slight gains while the Russel decreased near 1%, with tech leading the way higher for equities. Along with that, the precious metals saw more selling pressure today with Gold, Silver, and Copper all trading lower today with Silver leading to the downside, decreasing by over 2%. Looking at a daily chart for Gold, the market has been trading out above the 50-day moving average since January of this year, and the current selling pressure has sent the Gold market back down toward this level.
Gold has been on a strong push higher since the start of the year, achieving a new all time high on multiple occasions and being up over 20% even with the recent decline in prices. The Fed environment and inflation landscape can have a large impact on the global price of Gold, and the potential changes in interest rates and inflation data could be adding to the volatility seen since the recent all time high from April 22nd. Tomorrow, there is a large slate of economic data along with remarks from Fed Chair Powell which could potentially spark catalysts for Gold prices as we wrap up the week.
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**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Gold Futures, using a GC1!/DXY ratio, gold vs dollarUsing a gold futures continuous contract and the DXY i simply plotted the ratio and picked picot points to create a parallel channel on the GC1! graph....to which I doubled up the channel, or channel stacking, to see what would occur.
Make sure to utilize the "L" Log function in the bottom right of that chart to see something that may not be there and how perspectives can change when you reorient your scale.
Not much on analysis, just point to consider. That Fib Retrace was also don taking the lowest pivot point of this run and the top, most recent high, on the GC1!/DXY chart and plotting that to the exact location on the gold futures chart.
So somewhere in the 3100 to 3000 window looks good.
Gold chart with corresponding DXY ratio chart with points highlighted in green:
gold chart with momentum without Log function:
gold chart with momentum on Log function:
Gold Futures Analysis (MCX) – Target 87,000/- Chart Date: May 14, 2025
CMP: ₹92,558
Change: -1.16% | Volume: 14.13K
Gold has shown weakness after a strong uptrend from early February. Currently, it is consolidating near the ₹92,000 level, just above the 50 EMA (₹91,526). The price is hovering near a key support zone highlighted between ₹92,055 and ₹91,526.
📉 Key Observations:
Price rejected near recent swing high of ₹99,358.
Currently testing the 50 EMA. A breakdown below this may trigger further downside toward ₹87,500–₹86,592 demand zone.
Volume declining on recent candles – indicating weakening bullish momentum.
EMA Cluster (10/20/50) flattening out – potential trend reversal or deeper pullback in progress.
📌 Levels to Watch:
Support: ₹92,055 → ₹91,526 | Below that: ₹87,500 & ₹86,592
Resistance: ₹94,160 (20 EMA), ₹94,434 (10 EMA)
Breakdown Target Zone: ₹87,500 (5.52% from current price)
🔔 Strategy:
Wait for price action near the support zone. If breakdown confirms with volume, look for short opportunities with a tight SL above 50 EMA. Long trades only if strong reversal candles appear near ₹91.5k zone.
📊 EMA: 10/20/50/100/200 plotted for dynamic trend & support insights.
Gold- 50 day ema in playAs my bearish gold call materializes, I must be aware of the 50 day ema. For all the reasons previously stated, gold is moving lower and it makes sense based on the patterns, divergences, support broken, etc. However, the 50 day ema support level can easily wipeout bearish sentiment if it holds. The 50 day ema is far more powerful than the multiple reasons to short gold. It is such a widely followed indicator and it lets new buyers come into the market to halt the price decline and further more, there will be a cohort of traders that close (buy) their short positions at the 50 day ema. So it almost becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
GC - Gold digging for a possible ShortAfter reaching WL2, we saw a sharp pullback followed by an immediate double top. Price failed to reach the centerline of the yellow fork, instead stalling at the 1/4 line.
Then came the break of the lower median line (L-MLH), a pullback to the white WL1—then the drop began.
If this market can’t push to new highs, we’ll likely fall back into the median line set. A pullback to the upper median line (U-MLH), as indicated by the red arrows, is a probable scenario.
Next stop: the white centerline.
I trade tiny. I trade with extremely high risk-reward setups. I’m fine getting stopped out all the time —because I’m hunting huge moves.
I don’t chase. No FOMO.
It’s how I sleep well, make money from trading and keep my stress level very low.
Gold Futures 15-Minute Timeframe Analysis15-minute timeframe, upper range boundary at 3247.4, lower range boundary at 3220.7.
You could consider trading within this range by selling near the top and buying near the bottom (high-probability mean reversion). However, I recommend waiting for a breakout or breakdown of the range and then trading the trend on the 5-minute timeframe.
15分钟周期,区间上沿3247.4,区间下沿3220.7。可以考虑做该区间内的高抛低吸,但我建议等待突破或跌破区间后,在5分钟周期做趋势单子
Gold’s Showdown: Bulls vs. Bears at the Make or Break Level🚀 Gold on the Edge: Breakout or Fakeout?
Alright, gather around, folks. Gold’s approaching that ⚔️ Make or Break Level, and this is where things get spicy. It’s like watching two fighters square up—you know something big is about to happen.
💡 Why This Level Matters
We’re at the spot where bulls and bears are throwing shade and maybe a few punches. This level isn’t just another line on the chart; it’s the VIP zone where momentum either takes off or taps out.
Right now, we’re leaning bullish—especially if Gold punches through and holds above this zone. We’re looking for a breakout that could take us toward 3,380, maybe even 3,420 if the party keeps going.
But… if the bears win this round and push back, we’re eyeing 3,288 as a second chance for buyers. Think of it as a rebound opportunity—if Gold stabilizes there, it could still be game on for the bulls.
📝 Our Playbook:
Breakout confirmed? Ride the momentum.
Fakeout rejection? Watch for buys at 3,288—a possible second chance for the bulls.
Stay sharp and react—no hero moves. We’re letting the price action decide.
Your thoughts? Bullish or bearish on Gold at this level? 🐂🐻
Bearish Price Action for GoldThe risk on trade is putting further downward pressure on gold. Combine that with the bearish technical setup( multiple divergences, triangle pattern break, Trendline pattern break, bearish evening star candlestick pattern) and the charts suggest this move has room to extend to the downside. Conservative pattern targets suggest the PML(previous monthly low) is in play which is 2970. That seems reasonable as it is a conservative target. As I write this gold is testing 3240 which is a PWL(previous weekly low) and it is acting as support. Gold is below its monthly pivot of 3266 so the bears and bulls will probably fight this one out for a day or two and then the picture will get clearer if this move wants to extend or it is simply a correction in a longer term uptrend.