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CORN trade ideas

CORN at Key Resistance: Will Sellers Push Toward 4.4950?PEPPERSTONE:CORN has reached a significant supply zone, marked by historical price rejections and strong selling pressure. This zone has acted as resistance, suggesting the potential for a bearish reversal if sellers regain control. The current market structure indicates that if the price confirms rejection at this supply zone, we could see a move downward toward the 4.4950 level, which aligns with the broader bearish trend. Traders should monitor for bearish confirmation signals, such as bearish engulfing candles or strong rejections at this resistance zone, before considering short positions.
PEPPERSTONE:CORNShort
by DanieIM
1
Corn Market Trends: Production in Argentina and Brazil (02.11)As the global corn market navigates supply constraints, the latest WASDE report highlights a downward revision in production forecasts for Argentina and Brazil, key players in global exports. Adverse weather conditions, including prolonged heat and dryness in Argentina and planting delays in Brazil, have led to lower yield expectations, tightening global supply chains. Production Declines in Argentina and Brazil Argentina's corn production is now projected at 50 million metric tons, down from 51 million, reflecting yield losses due to drought conditions in key growing regions. Brazil's output is also revised downward to 126 million metric tons, mainly due to slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West region, which is critical for global supply. Impact on Global Corn Trade With reduced output from South America, global corn trade is seeing shifts. The WASDE report lowers projected corn exports from Brazil and Argentina, increasing reliance on alternative suppliers like the United States. However, U.S. exports are expected to face stiff competition from other global producers, including Ukraine and South Africa, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. U.S. Market and Price Dynamics The U.S. corn market remains stable, with production estimates unchanged at 14.87 billion bushels. However, ending stocks are revised downward to 1.54 billion bushels, reflecting stronger demand. The season-average farm price for U.S. corn is raised to $4.35 per bushel, reflecting tighter global supplies and steady domestic consumption. Key Market Implications • Rising Global Prices: Lower South American output could support higher corn prices worldwide, benefiting U.S. exports. • Shift in Import Demand: China, a major corn buyer, has reduced its import forecast, while Vietnam and Chile have increased theirs, signaling shifting trade patterns. • Weather Risks Persist: Continued adverse weather could further impact production estimates, making upcoming forecasts critical for market direction. Evolving weather conditions and policy changes could further impact global supply chains and price trends. TOCOM:TGCN1! BMFBOVESPA:CORN11
SKILLING:CORN
by juliakhandoshko
Corn Market: Outlook Driven by Supply Trade, and Demand ShiftsThe global corn market in 2025 is undergoing notable transitions shaped by changing supply dynamics, evolving trade flows, and increasing demand across key sectors. The January 2025 WASDE report sheds light on the significant pressures and opportunities facing this essential commodity as production adjustments and geopolitical shifts come into play. Corn production forecasts for the 2024/25 season reveal not so simple global picture. The U.S., the world’s largest corn producer, is grappling with significant yield losses due to ongoing drought conditions in the Corn Belt. Current projections estimate U.S. production at 14.5 billion bushels, marking a drop compared to prior seasons. Meanwhile, Brazil has emerged as a major player, capitalizing on favorable weather and expanding its planted acreage to achieve a record-high output of 132 million metric tons, securing its position as a leading exporter. However, production challenges in China, driven by high input costs and limited arable land, are expected to drive the nation’s continued reliance on imports. Trade dynamics are shifting, with Brazil solidifying its role as a top corn exporter , leveraging competitive pricing and a streamlined export system. U.S. exports, on the other hand, are projected to decline to 49 million metric tons, reflecting challenges posed by strong competition and elevated domestic prices. China remains the leading importer, with anticipated purchases of over 24 million metric tons, largely driven by demand from its recovering swine sector and efforts to replenish depleted grain reserves. Elsewhere, nations in North Africa and the Middle East are maintaining strong import levels to address food security needs, particularly for animal feed applications. Demand for corn remains robust but multifaceted in its drivers. Livestock feed continues to dominate global consumption, particularly in regions where meat production is rapidly expanding. Ethanol remains a cornerstone of U.S. domestic demand, as renewable energy mandates ensure a steady draw on supplies. Industrial uses of corn are also diversifying, with bio-based plastics and other applications gaining traction, adding a layer of complexity to the market’s demand profile. Corn prices are expected to remain elevated through 2025, reflecting tight global supplies, ongoing trade uncertainties, and persistent weather challenges. The WASDE report projects U.S. corn prices to average $6.70 per bushel, up from the previous year’s average. Key drivers include adverse weather conditions in critical growing regions, particularly the prolonged droughts affecting the U.S., and the potential for La Niña disruptions in South America. A weaker U.S. dollar may offer some relief to American exporters, enhancing price competitiveness, though Brazil's strong presence in global trade poses a challenge. For investors, the 2025 corn market presents a range of opportunities and risks. Elevated price volatility makes corn futures attractive for hedging and speculative strategies. Additionally, investments in agricultural innovation, such as drought-resistant seed technology and precision farming, offer long-term potential. Those seeking diversified exposure may consider agriculture-focused ETFs or equities tied to the corn supply chain, including logistics, equipment manufacturers, and fertilizer producers. As always we should stay sharp, the corn market in 2025 is shaped by a convergence of production pressures, evolving trade patterns, and robust global demand. BMFBOVESPA:CCM1! CBOT:ZC1!
SKILLING:CORN
by juliakhandoshko
Corn: Clear way downCorn market has had a somewhat of a shock revival over the past couple of weeks. The latest WASDE report provided a final jolt to the massive speculative positioning which we deem to be at an extreme around the 500 USD level. We think the latest move has been an overkill and some of the positioning is bound to unwind as the speculators might have gotten ahead of themselves. Large stale short positions were the predominant drive of the move for the most part. Therefore, all the latest long positions are at risk of being trapped. Strategic short with stop around at the 555-560 USD level. Targeting pre-WASDE levels.
FOREXCOM:CORNShort
by RedridgeCapital
2
CORN Loking Bullish End of weeek anaysis1. Current Bullish Sentiment If you're expecting a bullish move in corn prices, it could be due to several factors: Supply/Demand Dynamics: Weather conditions, crop yields, or geopolitical events can affect supply, leading to higher prices if there's a shortfall. Seasonality: Corn often follows seasonal patterns, with prices typically peaking during periods of strong demand or when harvests are threatened. Technical Momentum: The price might be building upward momentum, with increasing volumes indicating strong buyer interest. 2. Stop-Loss at 671 A stop-loss at 671 suggests that you want to limit downside risk by exiting the trade if the price drops below this level. Here's what this indicates: Support Level: 671 might represent a recent support zone where prices previously held during a downward move. Risk Management: It’s close enough to protect you from major losses if the market turns against you, but still gives enough room for natural price fluctuations without triggering the stop too early. 3. Take-Profit at 1600 Setting a take-profit at 1600 suggests you're expecting a substantial upside, and here's what it implies: Major Resistance or Long-Term Target: This could be a long-term resistance level from historical price action or your analysis suggests a big move based on fundamentals or technicals. High Reward-to-Risk Ratio: With a stop at 671 and take-profit at 1600, you're looking for a high reward-to-risk ratio. The distance between the two levels shows a significant potential upside if the bullish trend plays out.
CAPITALCOM:CORN
by LORDOFTHETRADERS
CORN, bound for huge bounce.. Drought will make prices surge!CORN has overextended correction to 5.74 from a high of 6.8. The overreaction is a bit on the unreasonable side with worst DROUGHT in years endangering world's supply. Price is back at 1.0 FIB level. This is beyond bargain / discount. Best to seed at this range. Based on monthly data, the 'trend shift' based on metrics hasn't changed. Reversal is on queue at the current price range. If anything, the market is too generous to offer at very low prices before the potential future valuation. 4H histogram is currently shifting -- with buyers attempting to reverse the trend. Spotted at 5.7 TAYOR Safeguard capital always. ------------- some related news: Central US is now getting worst of the drought. Corn crops are stressed, rivers are running low The middle of the country is extraordinarily dry ByJIM SALTER Associated Press June 30, 2023, 12:06 AM Drought Midwest This photo provided by Mike Shane shows Shane as he stands in his corn field near Peoria, Ill., Tuesday, June 27, 2023. By now, the corn stalks should be 10 feet high. Instead, they’re barely up to Shane’s waist. Illinois and other corn-growing states in the cent...Show more The Associated Press ST. LOUIS -- Mike Shane’s Illinois farm got a nice soaking on May 8, shortly after he planted his corn crop. Since then, rain has been hard to come by. Plenty of storms have ventured close only to fizzle out before making it to Shane’s 200-acre spread near Peoria. “It comes across the Mississippi River and then just disappears,” Shane, 47, said. “My corn looks absolutely terrible right now.” Without substantial rain soon, “I just don’t see any hope for it,” he said. Heavy rain over the winter eased the drought in the West, but now the middle of the country is extraordinarily dry. Crops are stressed, rivers are running low, and cities and towns are anxiously hoping for a break in the weather. Experts say the drought in the central U.S. is the worst since at least 2012, and in some areas, is drawing comparisons to the 1988 drought that devastated corn, wheat and soybean crops. This year, although temperatures have been generally mild through the spring and early days of summer, rainfall has been sorely lacking. The U.S. Drought Monitor, operated by the federal government and the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, reports that nearly half of Kansas is in either extreme or exceptional drought condition — the highest drought designation. More than a quarter of Nebraska is in extreme drought, and 13% is in exceptional drought. Arid conditions permeate Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Missouri and Kentucky. The frequency and intensity of droughts and rainfall are increasing due to burning fossil fuels and other human activity that releases greenhouse gases, according to data from a pair of satellites used to measure changes in Earth’s water storage. The study was published in March in the journal Nature Water. Adam Hartman, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, said some parts of the central U.S. have been experiencing extreme drought since the winter. In other states, “flash droughts” have popped up over the past 2-3 months. “As a result you’ve see drastic losses in topsoil, subsoil moisture,” Hartman said. “We’ve seen ground water levels start to lower as well. We’ve seen stream flows start to decline.” Crops are feeling the impact. The U.S. Department of Agriculture now rates only half of the U.S. corn crop as good or excellent — the lowest percentage since 1988. Nearly two-thirds of the nation’s corn-growing areas are in drought. “That gives us some indicator that we’re seeing widespread stress on those crops throughout the Corn Belt,” said Krista Swanson, an economist for the National Corn Growers Association. If rains don't arrive soon, Swanson believes total yield could be down about 1 billion bushels from the original projection of 16.7 billion bushels. That won’t necessarily mean higher costs for consumers because much of the corn is used for feed, ethanol or is exported, Swanson said. The real impact is on the farmers. “Their cost-per-acre is the same regardless of what they produce,” Swanson said. “In these years where we have lower production, on the farmer side that’s a challenge.” Water levels are dipping in rivers. The Mississippi River — especially from southern Illinois to the south — is extremely low in many spots. It was just last fall that the river reached or neared record low-water marks in several places, only to bounce back to flood levels in the spring, before the latest drought-fueled decline. Lynn Muench, a senior vice president for the American Waterways Operators, which advocates for the tugboat, towboat and barge industry, said barge capacity is being voluntarily reduced on parts of the Mississippi River. Losing capacity is a financial setback but operators are taking it in stride, Muench said. “We’re a flexible and resilient industry so we’ll keep going,” he said. Colin Wellenkamp, executive director of the Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative, said many communities are on edge. The drought last fall cost river communities billions of dollars in losses due to increased energy and water purification costs, lost tourism revenue, commodity losses and other hits. “Now we’re right back into drought again,” Wellenkamp said. So far, impact has been minimal, “but if we don’t get relief in July, that’s all going to change,” he said. On Shane's 200-acre farm, corn should be standing 10 feet tall by now. It's barely to his waist. The leaves are yellowed and Shane isn't certain the ears of corn are even developing. “If that's the case, it's worthless,” he said. But farmers aren't giving up hope. Swanson said the El Nino weather pattern that has taken hold typically means more rain and better growing conditions in the central U.S. “We could see more favorable weather over the next two months, which could have a positive impact,” she said. But even with El Nino, Hartman noted that the seasonal outlook for the summer months projects below-normal rainfall. “This drought could stick around for a little bit,” Hartman said.
PEPPERSTONE:CORNLong
by JSAL