Has Bitcoin bottomed?CRYPTOCAP:BTC structure looks to be repeating it previous consolidation pattern. Could this be its next setup before reaching new all time highs?
BTCUSD02K2025 trade ideas
BCT CMEWe are have 2 target
1) 86850
2) 83200
Friday close in 4h sibi, I think this Sunday NWOG open price down and looking stops lvl 83.200
We are see below 4h bisi after week vi, I think price need move first this area for create sales candle and after hunt 86.850 above NWOG 7 March
I search buy in this two pd area
Lets see what happen after open exchanges
Behind the Curtain: Bitcoin’s Surprising Macro Triggers1. Introduction
Bitcoin Futures (BTC), once viewed as a niche or speculative product, have now entered the macroeconomic spotlight. Traded on the CME and embraced by institutions through ETF exposure, BTC Futures reflect not only digital asset sentiment—but also evolving reactions to traditional economic forces.
While many traders still associate Bitcoin with crypto-native catalysts, machine learning reveals a different story. Today, BTC responds dynamically to macro indicators like Treasury yields, labor data, and liquidity trends.
In this article, we apply a Random Forest Regressor to historical data to uncover the top economic signals impacting Bitcoin Futures returns across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes—some of which may surprise even seasoned macro traders.
2. Understanding Bitcoin Futures Contracts
Bitcoin Futures provide institutional-grade access to BTC price movements—with efficient clearing and capital flexibility.
o Standard BTC Futures (BTC):
Tick Size: $5 per tick = $25 per tick per contract
Initial Margin: ≈ $102,000 (subject to volatility)
o Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT):
Contract Size: 1/50th the BTC size
Tick Size: $5 = $0.50 per tick per contract
Initial Margin: ≈ $2,000
BTC and MBT trade nearly 24 hours per day, five days a week, offering deep liquidity and expanding participation across hedge funds, asset managers, and active retail traders.
3. Daily Timeframe: Short-Term Macro Sensitivity
Bitcoin’s volatility makes it highly reactive to daily data surprises, especially those affecting liquidity and rates.
Velocity of Money (M2): This lesser-watched indicator captures how quickly money circulates. Rising velocity can signal renewed risk-taking, often leading to short-term BTC movements. A declining M2 velocity implies tightening conditions, potentially pressuring BTC as risk appetite contracts.
10-Year Treasury Yield: One of the most sensitive intraday indicators for BTC. Yield spikes make holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin potentially less attractive. Declining yields could signal easing financial conditions, inviting capital back into crypto.
Labor Force Participation Rate: While not a headline number, sudden shifts in labor force data can affect consumer confidence and policy tone—especially if they suggest a weakening economy. Bitcoin could react positively when data implies future easing.
4. Weekly Timeframe: Labor-Driven Market Reactions
As BTC increasingly correlates with traditional markets, weekly economic data—especially related to labor—has become a mid-term directional driver.
Initial Jobless Claims: Spikes in this metric can indicate rising economic stress. BTC could react defensively to rising claims, but may rally on drops, especially when seen as signs of stability returning.
ISM Manufacturing Employment: This metric reflects hiring strength in the manufacturing sector. Slowing employment growth here could correlate with broader economic softening—something BTC traders can track as part of their risk sentiment gauge.
Continuing Jobless Claims: Tracks the persistence of unemployment. Sustained increases can shake risk markets and pull BTC lower, while ongoing declines suggest an improving outlook, which could help BTC resume upward movement.
5. Monthly Timeframe: Macro Structural Themes
Institutional positioning in Bitcoin increasingly aligns with high-impact monthly data. These indicators help shape longer-term views on liquidity, rate policy, and capital allocation:
Unemployment Rate: A rising unemployment rate could shift market expectations toward a more accommodative monetary policy. Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against fiat debasement and monetary easing, can benefit from this shift. In contrast, a low and steady unemployment rate may pressure BTC as it reinforces the case for higher interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (again): On a monthly basis, this repeats and become a cornerstone macro theme.
Initial Jobless Claims (again): Rather than individual weekly prints, the broader trend reveals structural shifts in the labor market.
6. Style-Based Strategy Insights
Bitcoin traders often span a wide range of styles—from short-term volatility hunters to long-duration macro allocators. Aligning indicator focus by style is essential:
o Day Traders
Zero in on M2 velocity and 10-Year Yield to time intraday reversals or continuation setups.
Quick pivots in bond yields or liquidity metrics could coincide with BTC spikes.
o Swing Traders
Use Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Employment trends to track momentum for 3–10 day moves.
Weekly data may help catch directional shifts before they appear in price charts.
o Position Traders
Monitor macro structure via Unemployment Rate, 10Y Yield, and Initial Claims.
These traders align portfolios based on broader economic trends, often holding exposure through cycles.
7. Risk Management Commentary
Bitcoin Futures demand tactical risk management:
Use Micro BTC Contracts (MBT) to scale in or out of trades precisely.
Expect volatility around macro data releases—set wider stops with volatility-adjusted sizing.
Avoid over-positioning near major Fed meetings, CPI prints, or labor reports.
Unlike legacy markets, BTC can make multi-percent intraday moves. A robust risk plan isn’t optional—it’s survival.
8. Conclusion
Bitcoin has matured into a macro-responsive asset. What once moved on hype now responds to the pulse of the global economy. From M2 liquidity flows and interest rate expectations, to labor market stability, BTC Futures reflect institutional sentiment shaped by data.
BTC’s role in the modern portfolio is still evolving. But one thing is clear: macro matters. And those who understand which indicators truly move Bitcoin can trade with more confidence and precision.
Stay tuned for the next edition of the "Behind the Curtain" series as we decode the economic machinery behind another CME futures product.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Bitcoin Update: Testing the Waters in a DowntrendBitcoin Shows Resilience Amid Market Weakness
Bitcoin remains in a downtrend but has demonstrated notable strength during the recent market sell-off. Last week, we initiated a small position at $78K as a "probe" to test the waters. While this position remains active, Bitcoin needs to break through the current downtrend structure to confirm strength.
What's particularly interesting is how Bitcoin has performed significantly stronger than the S&P 500 during this period. The price action reveals telling signs about potential future movement.
Volume Analysis Points to Potential Reversal
Examining the trading volume at current price levels shows considerable effort to push prices downward. Despite this high selling volume, the results have been relatively poor for sellers. We've observed a small spring pattern forming, with price now challenging the resistance of the established channel.
This combination - high downward effort with limited results, occurring against a backdrop of significant weakness in the traditional stock market - creates a compelling short-term opportunity.
Our Trading Approach: Cautious Positioning
We're strategically approaching this spring setup, looking for a potential rally that could break through the current resistance level. However, it's important to note that spring patterns in a downtrend typically represent lower-probability trading scenarios.
For this reason, our current capital allocation remains conservative. We've implemented a measured approach:
Starting with small position sizing
Preparing to add to our position as confirmation develops
Setting a stop loss slightly above the recent low
Risk Management Remains Essential
This cautious positioning acknowledges the current market reality - while we see promising signs, the overall trend remains downward until proven otherwise. By starting with limited exposure, we maintain flexibility to either exit with minimal damage if the setup fails or increase our position if the market confirms our analysis.
The spring pattern we've identified suggests potential upward movement, but requires confirmation through a break of the downtrend structure before committing additional capital.
Looking Forward
The current Bitcoin price action represents an interesting juncture. The resilience shown against broader market weakness provides a foundation for potential bullish development, but prudent risk management remains essential in this environment.
We'll continue monitoring volume patterns, price action relative to the established channel, and Bitcoin's performance compared to traditional equity markets for further confirmation signals.
Note: This analysis is based on market conditions at the time of writing and is for educational purposes only.
Bitcoin At $250,000 In 2025: Bull-Market Entry (Buy) Zone ActiveBitcoin's 2025 bull-market buy-zone is still active. Actually, Bitcoin is at a great price right now. We are aiming for a target of $250,000 for this cycle. We are looking at the bottom right now, literally. Any buy below $90,000 is extremely good and below $80,000 a dream come-true. This will be obvious in just a matter of weeks.
How are you feeling today?
I hope the start of the weekend is treating you good.
This is a friendly reminder, Bitcoin has been sideways for months. When Bitcoin drops, it drops but, currently, there are no new lows.
Bitcoin peaked in December 2024 and produced a double-top in January 2025. A small retrace and that's it; the accumulation phase is ongoing and the buy-zone active.
There are many signals that support a correction bottom being in. We looked at these already so you will have to trust me. Leverage is possible on this setup. Leverage for a long-term trade. This is the best possible scenario and the best type of trade.
No complexities. No calculators. No fees. No interest, just buy and hold.
Wait patiently... It will be a very strong rise and the Altcoins will grow even more than Bitcoin. The entire Cryptocurrency market will produce maximum growth.
This post is intended to alert of you a great entry-timing. Great prices as well but timing right now is great. We might have to wait a bit longer, it won't move right away, but with this price you can't go wrong.
I am wishing you tons of profits in 2025 and financial success.
Thank you for reading.
If you are new, feel free to follow.
Master Ananda for you (formerly Alan Santana).
Namaste.
Is Bitcoin holding up or sell-off coming soon?CME:BTC1!
Surprisingly, the price of bitcoin and bitcoin futures have held up well compared to stocks given that Bitcoin is a high risk, highly volatile crypto currency.
It is almost as if hedge funds, and other investors have not had to liquidate their BTC exposure due to margin calls.
Open Interest has been stable and average daily volume is holding up. This can be viewed by accessing the CME Bitcoin Open Interest and Volume .
What is next for Bitcoin futures?
As noted in our analysis, CME bitcoin futures are currently trading below the key level 2024 mid-range.
Key Levels:
2024 Mid-Range, Key LIS: 79655
2024 till YTD CVPOC: 71705
Support Zone: 63140 - 57275
2024 till YT CVAL: 57275
Scenario 1: Further Downside - technical breakdown
We expect further downside and move towards our support zone marked on the chart. Enter short on a pull back towards mid-range with stops above high of Apr 3rd, 2025.
Example Trade 1:
• Short Entry: 79000
• Stop: 85240
• Target: 60000
• Risk: 6240
• Reward: 22000
• Risk/Reward Ratio: ~ 3R
Scenario 2: Reclaim mid-range and consolidate
In this scenario, if the price gets back above 2024 mid-range and stays above, we expect the price to range between 90K to 80K.
Example Trade 2:
• Long Entry: 80000
• Stop: 74630
• Target: 89000
• Risk: 5370
• Reward: 9000
• Risk/Reward Ratio: ~ 1.68 R
Important Notes:
• These are example trade ideas not intended to be a recommendation to trade, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions.
• Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
• NFA does not have regulatory oversight over spot cryptocurrencies or virtual currencies derivatives traded on unregulated/decentralized exchanges.
Glossary Index for all technical terms used:
YTD: Year to Date
LIS: Line in Sand
CVPOC: Composite Volume Point of Control
CVAL: Composite Value Area Low
Green Zones: Bull/ Buyers support zones
A lot of good reversals and lots of volatility which is good for April 10th we will be going into the 10th in about 15 minutes so we're looking at the market before the clock tells us that it's Thursday. there was tremendous volatility and great opportunities for trading as a buyer and a seller.... either one because high probability markets favor buyers as well as sellers. and since it's late at night you can take a look at some of these markets to see what you think there are at least 3 or 4 markets that are going to go higher in my opinion. some of them will make great range markets and if you have a good distance between where the buyers and sellers are and it's a range Market that too is a good opportunity for buyers and sellers,
BTC Swing LongTrade idea based on supply and demand, intermarket analysis and cross market valuation. Following a structured approach with clear entry, risk management, and confluence factors.
Bitcoin call from March comes into fruition, Almost to the day!Not looking to toot horn but, did we state anything about buying CRYPTOCAP:BTC or CRYPTOCAP:ETH until recently? NO! (pls see our profile for more info on that)
We have been analyzing Bitcoin & Ethereum and posting suggestions. But until recently we did not state any buy recommendations.
In fact, om March 25th we stated that there would be a big move coming by mid April!
We then changed our stance on #Bitcoin. We noticed, far to frequent anomaly using
@tradingview charts, trendlines MOVE on their own, that the move COULD be until the 8th of May! HOWEVER, less than 2 weeks ago, we stated that A MOVE was coming before then. It has happened almost to the T!!!
BTC longBTC D chart looks ready for a move up.
rsi ⬆️☑️
down trend line broken ☑️
volume increase ☑️
Bitcoin's Safe-Haven Ascent: Could BTC Join Gold As the US dollar teeters on long-term support, yields flash warnings, and USD/JPY unravels, Bitcoin's structure points to a reversal—and a potential role alongside gold as a global safe-haven asset.
Bitcoin and Gold: The New Twin Pillars of Safety?
A profound shift may be underway in how investors, institutions, and even governments perceive Bitcoin. Traditionally viewed as a high-beta, speculative asset, Bitcoin now displays characteristics of a safe-haven, particularly as macroeconomic cracks widen across currencies and sovereign bonds. The timing of this shift aligns with a historic divergence in key legacy instruments—including the USD/JPY, US Dollar Index (DXY), and the 10-Year Treasury Yield.
Most notably, Bitcoin's price structure has begun to mimic the strategic behaviour of gold—establishing support in times of uncertainty and attracting institutional flows amid fiscal and monetary instability. This raises a crucial question: Is Bitcoin on the verge of joining gold as a global safe-haven asset?
Bitcoin Futures Technical Outlook: Falling Wedge with Macro Fuel
Bitcoin Futures have retraced sharply from the January 2025 high of $110,150, establishing a double-bottom support zone at $75,255. This level has been tested twice, forming the base of a falling wedge pattern—a historically bullish formation that often leads to explosive trend reversals.
At the time of writing, BTC trades at $85,725, just below the critical resistance of $86,210. A confirmed breakout above this level could trigger a reversal to the upside, with targets at $94,580 and $102,950 and eventually a retest of the yearly high.
This technical setup is not occurring in isolation—it coincides with widespread fragility in the fiat financial system, prompting institutional investors to reconsider their allocation frameworks.
Institutional Rotation: The Rise of Bitcoin ETFs and Safe-Haven Utility
Several recent developments support the view that Bitcoin is evolving into a macro hedge:
BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, and others have launched US-regulated Bitcoin spot ETFs, marking a major milestone in institutional validation.
MicroStrategy added 6,911 BTC to its balance sheet in March 2025, increasing total holdings to over 214,000 BTC—an institutional vote of confidence.
Global de-dollarization trends are accelerating. Central banks are accumulating gold, while sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds are experimenting with BTC allocations as fiat uncertainty grows.
There is a noticeable behavioural shift in how public and private entities are positioning around Bitcoin—as a hedge, a reserve diversification play, and a long-term insurance policy against fiat failure.
Conclusion: Bitcoin and Gold—Digital and Physical Reserves in a Changing World
Gold and Bitcoin are increasingly being viewed not as competitors but as complementary tools in future portfolio construction.
As legacy systems show signs of strain:
-USD/JPY is breaking long-term support
-DXY is teetering at cycle lows
-10YR yields are rolling over structurally
Bitcoin is diverging upward, carving a path that suggests more than just a short-term trade. The price structure, macro alignment, and institutional behaviour are signalling a fundamental transformation.
In the next five years, we may not just see Bitcoin as a digital asset—but as a strategic safe-haven asset class alongside gold—a modern counterpart to the oldest reserve in history.
$BTC LONG BTCCRYPTOCAP:BTC
Position update on the current market structure.
The block was tested from above, but there was no full-fledged move in - a sign of limited pressure from the seller so far. That said, there remains the possibility of liquidity taking hold in the $82,000-$83,000 range. The key condition is the realization of the scenario within the next week, maximum - before the month's close.
May, in the absence of extraordinary events from the political agenda (primarily the US and Trump), should work out in positive dynamics.
If the market ignores the designated range and forms a break above $90,000 before the end of April - the scenario with a re-entry under $80,000 becomes extremely unlikely.
Simply put, the current volatility and fluctuations are just localized structural distortions within the dominant bullish medium-term trend. Going above $90,000 in this configuration becomes the base scenario, the only question is the nature of short-term price transformation.
CME Gap Filled for the weekNo other gaps Available on the downside. Gap filled for the week
Only one Gap remaining that is in 100k area
ETH/USDTbtc $85k is high liquidation and cme gap zone.
once these tariff headlines slow down bitcoin will be pulled toward these magnet levels
Bitcoin Futures Gap in Focus: $79,610 – $83,925Hello traders,
In today’s analysis we’re focusing on the open CME futures gap left behind by Bitcoin between $79,610 and $83,925. Historically, these gaps have a strong tendency to be filled — not always immediately, but eventually. This gap now acts as a magnet for price and should be considered in any short- to mid-term trading strategy.
Key Points:
• The gap fill zone is between $79.6K and $83.9K, and a move into this range could prompt a market-wide bounce.
• Despite the setup, confirmation is critical before entering — price may dip further before reclaiming the gap.
• Short-term trade opportunities may arise on correlated assets while BTC works to fill the gap.
It’s essential to factor in broader market volatility when planning trades. Bitcoin may move aggressively within this zone, and without confirmation, entries can be risky. High volatility often leads to fakeouts, so patience and discipline are key.
While the futures gap provides a technical target, it’s not a standalone reason to enter a trade. Use your trading system for entry signals, and don’t ignore macro conditions or sentiment. This gap is a useful reference point, not a trigger on its own.
Theme: Distribution Phase with Sentiment OverhangSetup Overview
Bitcoin is exhibiting classical post-euphoria distribution behavior. Following the ETF-driven rally, price has failed to follow through. Structure is weakening under persistent denial from retail participants. Crowd remains heavily long and emotionally invested in the prior bullish narrative, while the market structure continues to deteriorate.
COT & Sentiment Snapshot
Leveraged long interest remains high
Crowd anchored to ETF news cycle
Positioning shows no substantial unwind yet
Structural failure evident with compression under resistance
Market Structure & Technical Breakdown
Post-rally failure to continue trend
Distribution pattern forming with lower highs
Compression and weakening momentum under key supply
Lack of bullish response to positive news suggests exhaustion
Behavioral Finance Layer (Watts + Livermore)
“The crowd believes what it wants to believe, even when the structure says otherwise.”
Anchoring bias to bullish ETF narrative
Denial and overconfidence prevalent in sentiment
Herd behavior preventing repositioning
Emotional fragility building toward reflexive flush
Reflexivity Risk Model
Phase 1: Failed follow-through post-ETF optimism
Phase 2: Breakdown below structural demand
Phase 3: Crowding into late long entries
Phase 4: Emotional flush and positioning reset expected
Strategic Bias: Bearish (Short Bias)
The setup favors downside continuation until behavioral and structural washout occurs. Patience is key — the true opportunity lies in timing the emotional capitulation and reassessing risk post-reset.
BTC Futures : My first attempt with a target price of 0Hello friends; I think not believing in Bitcoin is as natural as believing in Bitcoin.
I can't express my opinion here with moving averages and/or RSI levels.
The Beyond Technical Analysis might make sense for this trade.
If we are wrong, what is important here is our position and risk management. We do not open a transaction to say "I told you so".
I cannot explain this with any technical analysis method, blockchain data, etc.
Technically; everything that will be built based on this is the same as building a sand castle.
I don't think Bitcoin has an equivalent.
If we consider serious inflation rates, it is obvious that people will have much bigger and more vital priorities than buying Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. I am not even talking about electricity costs.
I definitely don't think it can be in the same class as Gold.
This trade alone offers us a very good risk/reward ratio.
I chose the contract covering the next period ending on May 30th, not the continuous CME contract, in order to save time.
A good place for a first try.
I will definitely try something similar.
I don't think I will have any views other than the short side in the future.
For years I have been asked, "If you don't believe us, why don't you open a short position?" I will try to achieve this.
So there's also an experimental side to this.
HIGHLIGHTS
We are closing our position before the contract switch date of May 30, 2025, without looking at the price. If necessary, we will try again in the next contract.
The value of 113690 is our stop value. We end our trade at this value.
We choose the smallest value as the position size.
If you expect something to be 0,
you should choose trading instruments that evaluate your position in currencies rather than in BTC value.
I chose CME because it is suitable for this.
Contracts that are further away are definitely not liquid.
It may be difficult to find buyers even at high values.
Target : 0
Absolutely no margin addition.
Best regards.
Bitcoin CME Short AnalysisChart Description
The chart shows a recent strong move up in BTC CME Futures, highlighted by the green Fibonacci retracement levels measuring the prior swing low to swing high.
Two red boxes are drawn near the top, marking a potential resistance/supply zone where price previously stalled.
A white downward arrow indicates your expectation of a pullback from this resistance area.
At the bottom, an oscillator (in yellow) appears to form lower highs (a potential divergence), suggesting fading momentum as price tested the red boxes.
What I Think Is Next
Given the resistance in the red box area and the potential momentum divergence, you anticipate a short-term correction or pullback.
Possible downside targets could include the nearby Fibonacci retracement levels (e.g., 0.382 or 0.5), where BTC CME might find support and consolidate before the next move.
If price can’t hold those fib levels, a deeper correction toward lower support zones is possible. Conversely, a strong breakout above the red boxes and any key fib extensions could signal further upside continuation.
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin
The demand from K1 to K3 is decreasing,
It verified the downtrend momentum here.
The demand at K3 slightly increased,
But it failed to close the bear gap at K0.
If the following candles is a weak rebound to test the upper limit of the channel,
It will be a good place to short it there.
Short-86518/Stop-87800/Target-75K
BTC shortermShort term expected to have a bounce before further downside,
Monthly - sign of reversal to downside.
Weekly - bearish initiated
Daily - Still bearish trend
Has Bitcoin begun a bear market?Bitcoin has potentially completed a bull market cycle and could have begun its bear market cycle.
Bitcoin CME Futures Update: Gap Filled, But Weakness PersistsHello traders,
Today’s analysis focuses on the CME futures chart, providing an update on the latest price action. Since our last update, the gap has been filled, but notably, Bitcoin has failed to show any significant bounce that would indicate buyer strength. Instead, price has closed through the gap and is now trading below this level, signaling continued market weakness.
Key Technical Considerations
• $84,000 Reclaim is Critical: If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $84,000 in the coming days, the probability of a liquidation event increases. This could drive price toward the next key swing low around $67,735.
• Untapped Liquidity Zones: Multiple higher lows remain untouched, meaning there is still pristine liquidity that could act as a magnet for price.
• Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) Potential: A bounce at $67,735 could form an SFP, temporarily trapping shorts before rebounding. However, if price closes below this level on a high-time-frame basis, further downside toward much lower price levels is likely.
Conclusion: Caution is Advised
Bitcoin’s price action remains weak, and unless a decisive reclaim of $84,000 occurs, further downside remains the higher-probability scenario. The market structure still favors sellers, and traders should exercise caution, as a deeper correction could be in play if Bitcoin loses its next key support.
