DJ Transports appear to be tracing out 5 wave moveAs a canary in the mineshaft to recessions the DJT appears to have topped in November 24 and the corrective 4th wave has or is near complete indicating a measured move down of 13% before a significant rally.
On the longer term view this may only be a C of a primary 4th wave Correction and will make new highs or could be the start of secular bear market,
DJT trade ideas
DJT a trigger for stock markets?During Friday's session on WS, DJT closed near Fib. 0,382, a regular level for wave 4 termination.
During the last weeks, a "Contracting Triangle" and even a "Thrust" at 14140 apparently has been formed, which is slightly above the upper resistance-line of the trend-channel and not unusual.
This indicates, that the bullish sentiment of the last periods might be over.
Furthermore SPX and NDX, both closed well above Fib. 0,618, which often is a level for trend reversal.
DJI is also very close to this level. (It will be only a question of hours!)
DJT/SPX comparisonBearish case for equities.
Chart comparing DJT and SPX. DJT in wave ((c)) of regular flat, SPX in wave ((c)) of expanded flat.
SPX showing ending diagonal (wedge) to complete wave ((b)).
Bottom of SPX pitchfork (blue line) broke support and now acting as resistance.
This count anticipates each market to soon have a large (15-20%) 5-wave impulsive move down, DJT to complete wave 5 of (3) of ((c)) and SPX to complete wave (3) of ((c)).
After this proposed move, each market will have completed its wave (3) of ((c)).
I would expect wave (4) to be zigzag corrections for DJT and SPX before large wave (5)'s
to take price down towards March 2020 lows.
Dow Jones Transportation Average Index morning technical analysiTechnical analysis of DJT (Dow Jones Transportation Average Index).
Watching this ticker as a leading indicator of a market downturn.
As SPX and NDX have made new ATHs this week, DJT is down 3.65%.
Blow-off top happened in November 2021.
It is hard to see price action since September 2022 as impulsive. Perhaps it will turn out impulsive after everything is all said and done; this count assumes it will not.
Bears looking for this to play out as a regular flat, with the C wave as a violent sell-off below 10k. Implies some black swan event, but such an event is not necessary.
A comparison of indicesThis analysis compares NDX, SPX, Dow Jones Transportation Index, and NYSE Index.
This analysis assumes that the indices are highly correlated and at similar points in their larger Elliott Wave structures.
This assessment views NDX, DJT, and NYA data as the primary wave 5 of SPX, whose data goes back into the 19th century.
NDX, had an extra impulse wave to complete, which allowed for the B wave in SPX.
It's hard not to see the five wave impulse in DJT, whose price has not gone above its 2021 high. It also makes me question whether SPX's bounce off October 2022 low has been corrective rather than impulse.
What I think gives this analysis some validity is the contracting ending diagonal wave 5 of NYA, which is the only way it can be labeled, given its position relative to the other indices, if indeed the other counts are correct.
Anything can happen, obviously, but I think the lesson from this possibility is for bulls to trend lightly.
Dow Jones Transportation Index Average, Big PictureMy current count has a leading diagonal (A) or (1) from 18246.51 to 11946.21, corrective wave (B) or (2) up to 16717.04, wave 1 of (C) or (3) down to 13471.47, and wave 2 of (C) or (3) up to 16273.
I'm looking for DJT to roll over and go after the median line of the pitchfork. If this were to happen, I would assume equities are at or near the top.
Impact Analysis: Major Events and Their InfluenceI've conducted extensive research on various impactful events such as interest rate cuts, hikes, U.S. elections, major recessions, pandemics, and more, compiling the data into a comprehensive chart. While additional information like major conflicts and wars could be included, the chart already provides a clear representation of how these events have influenced market trends.
Dow Jones Transport tends to predict inflationThe yellow line is inflation and the candles show the Dow Jones Transport index which represents the fortunes and costs of transportation companies. Transport is a major cost to getting products to market and so if DJT is going up it often then is reflected in the official inflation rate after a lag.
Right now DJT is in a downtrend since the middle of this year. Unless it bounces from here and starts to make higher highs the DJT as a predictor of inflation suggests that inflation is contained. As I showed in my RINF chart, this isn't what is anticipated by the market.
DOW TRANSPORTATION .50 % and 618% The wave structure can be counted as a wave 4 drop this would setup the last wave up from today as the setup for support is been seen today . and put call models are set and oil is setup to break from 93/95.5 back to under 84 /79 this would be supportive for the djt
Dow Jones Industrial Average Key MomentMACRO MONDAY
Dow Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT
The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) is a price-weighted average of 20 key transportation stocks traded in the United States.
The transportation sector acts as a leading indicator as it is further up the value chain ahead of the final products being sold by companies in Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI. For this reason, in some circumstances we can use the DJT as a helpful leading indicator for the direction of the economy
Currently we are at a critical juncture on the DJT chart as we are testing significant resistance levels
- The DTJ Index is at a critical diagonal and horizontal
resistance level
- A break through or rejection of the resistance will
provide insight into the direction of the economy
- There is a potential Head and Shoulders pattern
that needs to be validated or invalidated which will
be defined by the price reaction to the resistance
zone.
We can observe what happens over the coming weeks and how price reacts to the resistance. Can it break above it and turn it into support?
When the DJI is climbing higher while the DJT is falling, it can be a signal of economic weakness ahead. A divergence of this sort means goods are not being transported at the same rate they are being produced, suggesting a decline in nationwide demand.
This type of divergence occurred prior to the March 2020 crash with the DJT making its ATH in Dec 2020, thereafter the DJI made a new ATH in February 2020 whilst the DJT was closing almost 5% lower making a lower high. Those that study Dow Theory were key observers of the divergence and acted accordingly safeguarding their portfolios.
Thankfully, at present there is no divergence. I will follow up in the comments with a chart showing that the DJI and the DJT are currently very closely aligned. Regardless paying close attention for a divergence could be very beneficial for your portfolio. I will certainly be on the look out and notify you in the event of.
Thanks for reading and welcome to Macro Mondays
PUKA
Might not want to go long when things are this overbought In this video I've shown how extended the Dow Industrials as well as Dow Transports are. This type of overbought setup has consistently marked tops in the past so I am currently bearish and waiting for a correction to play out over the next 4 weeks.
I am expecting an approx. 10% drop in the markets before going long
$DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Average Not Confirming The RunIf you wanted to know whether or not the market was on a bull run or not, all you had to do was look at the Dow Jones Transportation Average or even AMEX:RSP (which definitely does not fit the bull market, showing that overall the S&P 500 has barely broken 15% gain since October).
More important though is the transportation average breaking off from the rally ahead of the rest of the market. When transportation is leading us lower this is not a good sign for the economy. Other economic indicators support this thesis. For example, cardboard box demand is the lowest it's been since 2008. Showing signs of a decline in goods demand.
For more insights on trading and investing check out the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple, Spotify and Amazon.