USDOLLAR trade ideas
US Dollar (USDOLLAR) (DXY) Correction Before BreakoutThe US Dollar Index appears to have stalled in a supply zone, and needs to regroup before climbing higher. Expecting a return to 1200 prior to ATH's.
supply and demand usdollar analysislooking for weak usdollar across eurusd, gbpusd,usdjpy, all usd pairs.. lookout for price to come into daily/4hr supply and we will get initial sell off and hopefully continue price down.. cheers.
Dollar Approaching Bearish Wolfe Wave TPI will be looking at long positions in favour of the dollar a few points below the green ray which is the Bearish Wolfe Wave target.
US Dollar: Mind the scallopsScallops are broad patterns as shown in the chart. Whilst de-dollarisation is happening at a slow macroeconomic pace, coming from Russia, China and Japan (largely), it doesn't mean that the US Dollar will simply roll over.
The pattern of the scallops is quite visible. Now the US-Dollar is at a critical point and making attempts to do another scallop. I don't assume that each scallop will be less prominent than the previous. Overall the trend from April 2018 seems to be weakening but I make no assumptions that in the short term (next few weeks) the US-Dollar will not bounce north.
US-Dollar strength is broadly inversely correlated with commodities, metals and US-stock-markets - whilst affecting the strength of other currencies indirectly.
The pattern is useful in terms of assessing other positions in the markets both on Stock Markets and Forex.
USDOLLAR WeeklyThe US Dollar look like it may have ended and correction to the last trend. Could be headed down for a long time now?
usd dollarchange of direction
bears will take over
retail traders are buying and market markers will clean their stops
with people who didnt book profit
dollar indexthe bears will rule this year .market makers will take stops of retail traders who went long.
US Dollar Index Macro View 30/12 - Happy New YearLow volume is likely to continue in the US Dollar Index until coming Wednesday, the day after New year. Friday Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data might bring some volatility in the market.
The US Dollar Index chart did not change last week ranging between 12300 & 12260 levels. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12200 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break strongly above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12260 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
Upcoming week will be a quiet trading week ahead.
ForexBriefcase takes this opportunity to wish you and your family a Happy New Year.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Merry Christmas Everyone!May your day be merry and bright as we spend time with the ones who really count and give to those who really need.
Best wishes,
ShirokiHeishi
US Dollar Index Macro View 23/12 - Merry ChristmasThere is no surprise that Federal Reserve rate hike, US Dollar Index rallied after. Investor were looking for Fed Chair Powell dovish tone but his comments came out optimistic. The dollar rose despite the fact that 10-year Treasury yields dropped. Small adjustment in the statement on lowered growth and inflation forecast, these changes were not significant to push the dollar lower. Fed Chair Powell’s comments that he made it clear that nothing is predetermined and everything is data dependent but he also said the sharp decline in US equities and tightening of financial market conditions has not fundamentally altered their outlook. The Fed still plan to raise interest rates in 2019 and most policy makers expect the economy to grow. However, if the bond market continues to fall, it will be difficult for the dollar to sustain its strength.
The US Dollar Index chart did not change last week ranging between 12330 & 12260 levels. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12200 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break strongly above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12260 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
Upcoming week will be a quiet trading week ahead.
ForexBriefcase takes this opportunity to wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
USDOLLAR (24-12-2018 until 28-12-2018)Monthly:
Bullish in progress.
Weekly:
Bullish in progress.
Short term might be bearish.
Daily:
Price consolidation in progress.
The price is consolidating within the triangle range.
4-Hours:
Bullish and bearish are fighting each other.
1-Hour:
Price rebound within the triangle.
Prepare to buy when there is a dip.
Price consolidation seems to be taking more time than expected.
Be patient and keep cash with your account.
As long as there is money to trade, you still can win.
Stick to your money management plan.
Only loss 2% of your account money. Let the winner win.
US Dollar Index Macro View 16/12Past week, Producer Price Indexes came out better than expected, U.S. consumer prices unchanged and U.S. Retail Sales previous data are revised upwards. Leading to a stronger US Dollars. Upcoming FOMC Economic Projections, Statement, interest rates and Press Conference 30 mins after data release. The Federal Reserve, is highly likely to hike interest rates for the fourth time this year, but how many more hikes will come in 2019?
The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12330 & 12260 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12200 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break strongly above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12260 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
USDOLLAR (17-12-2018 until 21-12-2018)Monthly:
Bull and uptrend still happening.
Weekly:
Price consolidation is in progress.
Daily:
Price uptrend in progress. Breakout just happen and retracted.
Need to wait price hit the resistance and prepare to buy.
4-Hour:
Price down for short term and consolidate.
1-Hour:
Wait for the price to hit resistance and prepare for uptrend.
Be careful of the short term price short fall.
US DOLLAR INDEX - SUPPLY AND DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISWhenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following:
- Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones)
- Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit at horizontal, diagonal & dynamic support/resistance areas)
- What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off)
If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked.
Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take.
Process over outcome!
US Dollar Index Macro View 08/12Past week, 10 year Treasury rates dropped below 2.9% which will concerns about inflation and growth. No agreements will be made in the next 90 days for the next round of tariffs. Unemployment Claims increased, ADP reported smaller than expected rise in employment and Challenger Job Cuts y/y job cuts rose 51.5% in November. Trade balance also widened but factory orders and durable goods fell. ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 60.7 from 60.3 but the employment component of the report declined. Friday Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Non-Farm Employment Change have both decrease while Unemployment Rate remains the same. Job growth slowed than improved in the month of November. ADP report significantly lower employment change but jobless claims increased, consumer confidence is down and most importantly, the employment component of the service sector activity report fell. While stocks fell sharply over the past 2 months, the US labor market are affected as business may have grown conservative about hiring.
The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12280 & 12200 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12200 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
US DOLLAR INDEX - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi Traders,
Is it time to short the dollar at the supply zone? well, from a fundamental perspective, the dollar is still king. The fed still looking likely to hike interest rates and the economy is still on track. Compare the US economy with recent Japan GDP figures, uncertainty around Brexit and Italian budget worries and you'll see that it's not a wise move to short the dollar at the moment.
From a technical perspective, the level of supply that price has reached has been touched a couple of times so is likely to break. support and resistance traders (purple zone) believe that the more a level is touched the stronger a level becomes, which is false. price can reverse at this level but the question you have to ask is shorting the usdollar (on other usd crosses) is the right trade opportunity?
USDOLLAR INDEX - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi traders.
Whenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following:
- Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones)
- Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit)
- What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off)
If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked.
Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take.
Process over outcome!
US Dollar Index Macro View 01/12 - G20 meeting outcome?The US Dollar fell after Fed chair Jerome Powell surprised the market by saying that interest rates are “just below” neutral levels. He believes economy will continue growth with low unemployment and inflation around 2%, but he thinks moving too quickly could risk shortening the US expansion. Personal income and spending grew more than expected but jobless claims increased and pending home sales fell sharply. FOMC minutes did not help the dollar even though Fed officials saw the need for another rate hike. Even though there is a pickup in spending, the momentum in the economy is slowing. We might see if US delay additional tariffs with China in the G20 meeting until further talks, we could see a rally in equities and currencies. Upcoming data on the calendar that could market moving are Fed Chair Powell testifies and the non-farm payroll.
The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12300 & 12225 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12200 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
ForexBriefcase deepest condolences to former US President George W. Bush. RIP.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
