DAX overbought rally to new ATH, The Week Ahead 17th Feb 25The Dax (DE40) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer term prevailing uptrend.
The key trading level is at 21703, which is 07th Feb swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 21703 level could target the upside resistance at 22000 followed by 22096 and 22200 over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 21703 support and a daily close below that level could trigger a further retracement and a retest of 21600 support level followed by 21400 and 21240.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DECEUR trade ideas
GER40-SELL strategy Daily chartThe market always carries away, and this one is by means an exception. We are trading way beyond the KC top 21,800 and away from mid-range 20,800 area. The RSI is overbought and extreme.
I have no changes in view, and overtime see potential returning back towards 20,800.
Strategy SELL @ 22,350-22,650 and take profit near 21,117 for now.
Markets Relieved After Tariff DelayThe week’s closing session unfolded under the expectation of potential “reciprocal tariffs” from the United States, which ultimately will not be implemented immediately. This decision eased initial market jitters and led to a weaker dollar, as fears of an escalating trade war subsided—for now.
The U.S. outlook was also shaped by weaker-than-expected consumption data: January retail sales fell 0.9%, significantly below estimates, suggesting a weaker household spending impulse. At the same time, industrial production exceeded expectations with a 0.5% increase, but manufacturing within that indicator declined by 0.1%. These mixed data, coupled with the tariff delay, put downward pressure on the dollar, which lost much of the ground it had gained in previous weeks.
The effects of this softening U.S. currency were felt across several emerging markets. The Mexican peso posted notable gains, while the Chilean peso advanced up to 0.7% at its peak.
In the stock market, signals regarding U.S. consumption and caution over potential tariffs translated into volatile trading on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 remained flat after mixed sector performances. Energy and financials held relatively firm, while consumer staples declined amid a more cautious investor outlook. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 logged another week of gains, driven by strong tech earnings.
Europe maintained its recent positive trend, though some of its major indices—such as the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50—showed overbought signals (RSI above 70). In the most recent session, moderate profit-taking was observed in the DAX, while the French CAC 40 managed to hold its gains, supported by strong luxury sector earnings and other better-than-expected corporate results. Investors also remained in wait-and-see mode regarding potential U.S. trade measures impacting the region and the European Central Bank's monetary policy outlook.
In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index stood out with a more than 2% daily gain and over 6% for the week. Investors reacted optimistically to the prospect of the People’s Bank of China implementing new monetary stimulus to reinforce economic recovery. Additionally, strong demand for tech and consumer stocks helped fuel the rally.
The commodities market showed divergent movements. On one hand, oil prices remained in a tight range, with WTI hovering around $71 after a brief rally that was capped by the prospect of a diplomatic agreement that could ease energy sector sanctions. In contrast, natural gas surged nearly 9% over the week, reflecting seasonal volatility and some unexpected demand factors. In metals, gold retreated from record highs but remained above $2,900 per ounce.
Looking ahead, market attention will be focused on potential concrete announcements regarding the White House’s reciprocal tariffs. This will help shape the market outlook, which for now appears cautiously optimistic following developments in trade tensions but remains closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators and potential shifts in U.S. trade policy.
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DAX (DE40) INTRADAY consolidation supported at 22220The DAX (DE40) intraday price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. However, since the spike to intraday all time high at 22620 on 13th January 2025, the DAX price action is consolidating sideways, potentially indicating the overbought condition.
The key trading level is at the 22220 level, which is the 61.8% Fib retracement from 12 Feb ’25 swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 22220 level could target the upside resistance at 22480 followed by the 22620 and 22700 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 22220 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 22154 support level followed by 22000 and 21800.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GER40:Effects of Vice President Vance at the Paris SummitIntervention at the Paris Summit
During the recent Paris Summit, Vice President Vance highlighted the importance of international cooperation to address global challenges. In his remarks, he stressed the need for a more flexible regulatory approach that drives technological innovation and strengthens international security. His message focused on fostering dialogue and coordination among nations, which was interpreted as a stimulus for stability on the global stage and, therefore, for financial markets. The key message was that, in a booming market, deregulation-when applied in a balanced way-can be an engine of innovation and growth. It is about reducing bureaucratic barriers to allow companies to adapt and expand more nimbly, boosting competitiveness without sacrificing stability in areas such as artificial intelligence, data privacy and economic stability. The idea of encouraging deregulation in a burgeoning market does not run counter to the vision of the summit's organizer, the French president, who is more inclined to advocate stricter regulation in key sectors such as technology and the digital economy. France, like other European Union members, has expressed a concern about the potential dangers of a lack of regulation in emerging markets, fearing that excessive deregulation could lead to harmful practices, especially in areas such as artificial intelligence, data privacy and economic stability.
“You shouldn't over-regulate in markets in full economic bloom” and adding to what Vance mentioned there is a popular saying, ”Regulation Kills Innovation.
Developments in the German market
Shortly after the summit, a positive response was seen in the German market. The selective DAX 40 index advanced by 2.09 % and exceeded 22,600 points, reaching 22,612.02 points and marking a high for the fourth consecutive day. This growth is attributed both to the expectations generated by a possible negotiated resolution of international conflicts and to internal market factors, which were reflected in the performance of key sectors such as industry and technology. Likewise, other indices, such as the MDAX and TecDAX, showed increases, evidencing an environment of optimism among investors.
Impact on Investor Confidence and Future Prospects
The communication of stability and cooperation in the international arena, reinforced by Vance's intervention, has helped to strengthen investor confidence. The positive performance of the DAX 40 acts as a barometer of this sentiment, suggesting that both international policy and domestic performance can drive sustained growth. Looking ahead, it is expected that the follow-up of these events and the consolidation of international agreements will continue to favorably influence the stock market environment, allowing for balanced and sustained growth.
Key news for the DAX today
Euro-denominated economic indicators - especially GDP growth, inflation and employment - have the most potential to affect Germany and thus the DAX, as they reflect the health of the European economy and condition monetary policy, which directly influences investor confidence and the performance of the German stock market.
Technical analysis
Since Wednesday, February 5, there has been a “golden crossover” of averages that has been expanding over the past two weeks until today. Since the opening of the Asian trading day, the RSI has remained relatively overbought at 60.74%. The control point is around 21,525 points, well below the high of 22,816.91 points. The last strong support is at 21,950 points and the next support of the last impulse is at 22,315 points, being the middle zone of the current bullish channel. As the current price is at 22,525 points, we will have to see during this Friday's trading day if the week ends with a retest of the highs. If they resist we could have a partially sideways start of next week and if it surprises, we could see a new development in the direction of 22,800 points.
Conclusion
Vice President Vance's speech at the Paris Summit has marked a milestone in the perception of global stability, reflecting directly on the performance of the German market. The remarkable rise of the DAX 40 and the positive response of other indices underline the interrelationship between international politics and economics. In a context of global uncertainty, the synergy between these two spheres stands as a crucial factor in maintaining and boosting investor confidence in the European market.
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German Dax Long H4 PlayTrade Setup Overview
Entry Price: 21,536.37
Target Price: 22,264.79
Stop Loss: 21,293.57
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3
Trade Type: Buy Limit Order
Technical Indicators Analysis
Moving Averages
Price action shows strong bullish momentum with price maintaining position above the 200 EMA
Notable clean rejection of the 50 EMA, indicating potential continuation of upward movement
The spacing between moving averages suggests a healthy trend structure
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
MACD showing bullish reversal signals following recent retracement
Potential for positive momentum continuation as MACD turns upward
Signal line crossover could provide additional confirmation of bullish momentum
Market Structure
Overall bullish market structure remains intact
Recent retracement provides opportunity for value entry
Higher lows and higher highs pattern supporting bullish bias
Risk Management
Total Risk: 242.8 points (Entry - Stop Loss)
Potential Reward: 728.42 points (Target - Entry)
Conservative position sizing recommended due to market volatility
Consider trailing stop loss after price moves 1:1 in favor
Key Levels to Watch
Immediate Resistance: 22,000 (psychological level)
Secondary Resistance: 22,264.79 (target price)
Primary Support: 21,536.37 (entry price)
Critical Support: 21,293.57 (stop loss)
Trade Management Strategy
Enter at specified limit price of 21,536.37
Initial stop loss placement at 21,293.57
Consider scaling out positions:
First take-profit at 1:1 risk-reward
Move stop loss to break-even after first target hit
Let remaining position run to final target of 22,264.79
Additional Considerations
Monitor overall market sentiment and correlating indices
Watch for potential catalysts that could affect German/European markets
Keep track of volatility indicators for potential position size adjustments
Consider reducing position size if VIX shows significant increase
Trade Visualization
Price currently showing momentum above key moving averages with room to run toward target. The recent retracement provides a value entry point with clear invalidation level at stop loss.
Remember to always follow your trading plan and maintain strict risk management protocols.
GER30 SHORT GOOD RISK TO REWARD1.All timeframes are overbought
2. This has a previous days high and it constantly getting resisted at this level
3. There is a pattern on H1
4. Against the trend but there is a lot of divergence and consolidation
5. If this is unable to break the H1 trendline must get out immediately
6. 60 pip stop loss
DAX index Wave Analysis – 12 February 2025
- DAX index broke resistance level 22000.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 22500.00
DAX index is under the bullish pressure afar the earlier breakout of the daily up channel from August and the resistance level 22000.00
The breakout of the resistance level 22000.00 greatly accelerated the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from November.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the accelerating upward channel inside which the price is moving now, DAX index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 22500.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
DAX H4 | Bullish uptrend to continue?DAX (GER30) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 21,968.60 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 21,700.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 22,275.08 which is a level that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 61.8% projection and the 161.8% extension.
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DEX to FALL and retest its previous highs to make it a VALID RunGerman DEX has made its higher highs and as per the technicals, every chart has to retest its previous highs. Coming week DEX will restart its correction and will retest FIX61 and may as well go back to 170000 where the run was started. TRUMP TERIFFS COMING to haunt German Economey it will add more tax and it will slows down the production. German Elections coming on 23rd feb.
DAX 40 Crosses the 22,000 Mark for the First TimeThe German index increased just over 3% in the past five sessions, driven by the strong performance of companies such as SAP, Siemens, and Deutsche Bank , which have posted gains exceeding 3% during this period. Notably, these companies represent more than 20% of the weight in DAX 40, making their positive performance a key factor in sustaining the bullish pressure that has now pushed the index to new all-time highs.
Strong Uptrend
The DAX 40 is currently in a strong uptrend, which has accelerated since November 2024. The price has now reached the 22,000-point zone , a potentially significant resistance level. However, for the buying momentum to remain intact in the short term, it will be crucial for bullish positions to hold above this level.
Potential Correction
At the moment, the RSI line continues to oscillate above the 70 level , signaling overbought conditions. Additionally, while the DAX price has been making higher highs, the RSI has been making lower highs, forming a bearish divergence. These two signals suggest that the recent buying activity may have created an imbalance in the market, which could open the door to short-term downward corrections.
Key Levels to Watch:
22,000 points – A new critical resistance zone, aligning with the latest all-time high reached by the DAX 40. If buying activity remains strong above this level, it could help sustain the bullish bias and pave the way for further upward movement in the coming sessions.
21,300 points – A nearby support level, corresponding to a neutral zone from previous sessions, and also aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This area could serve as a potential correction zone, and if price action falls below this barrier, it may lead to a sideways phase in the medium term.
20,300 points – A distant support level, aligning with the 50- and 100-period moving averages. If the price approaches this level, it could revive bearish sentiment and put the current uptrend at risk.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
DAX uptrend continuationThe Dax (DE40) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer term prevailing uptrend.
The key trading level is at 21703, which is 07th Feb swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 21703 level could target the upside resistance at 22000 followed by 22096 and 22200 over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 21703 support and a daily close below that level could trigger a further retracement and a retest of 21600 support level followed by 21400 and 21240.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DAX NO CHANGES IN THE LABELING FORECAST TOPThe chart of the German Dax. All markets are in harmony in the formations . Inflation causes higher prices higher prices causes higher revenues higher revenues causes higher profits which causes higher stock prices based on increased Earnings . So without inflation All ASSETS DEFLATE !! That is just about to happen !!!
DAX MARKET Continued monitoring of the IFO business Climate Index and PMI data will be crucial. A sustained decline could signal deeper economic issues, potentially leading to a technical recession.
The upcoming snap elections in February may result in policy shifts that could impact investor sentiment and market stability
The performance of major economies, particularly the US and China, will affect demand for German exports.
Dax Short 4HGood Day, Trading View friends!
I'm excited to share my latest trading insights with you. This setup is all about those trusty Fibonacci and psychological levels. Right now, the DAX is testing a 4-hour midline, and we’re typically seeing a pullback at this point. If the DAX can hold 21,500 and 21,550 as a demand area, based on our earlier 4-hour wave, we're aiming for the next level at 21,965 to 22,000.
I’m on the lookout for a rejection near 22,000, followed by an M pattern with a lower high on the second peak for that perfect entry confirmation.
Also, be cautious today as we have the FOMC meeting. Make sure to factor that into your strategies!
Feel free to check out my previous setups to get a feel for how I approach things. I can’t wait to hear what you think and keep the conversation going!
DAX traders are not bothered about steel and aluminum tariffs It seems that MARKETSCOM:DE30 traders today don't care much about the announcement of US tariffs on steel and aluminum. In fact, the German index continues to show resilience and keeps forming new highs. But how can this last for?
XETR:DAX
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#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I still think we will top out around 22000 but I also think we won’t go down for meaningful points before we have printed that price. We now have made 7 consecutive green weeks and the odds of a pull-back are far better than another strong move beyond 22000. I will decide on Monday on swing shorts for at least 21k and will continue to scale in and out of shorts for this.
current market cycle: Bull trend (very climactic move last weeks, market needs to take a breather)
key levels: 20500 - 22100
bull case: Bulls want to print 22000 and then continue. As long as bears are not stepping in, bulls will continue because it has been profitable for 3 months straight. My base case for the bulls has not changed since last Sunday. We are at the top or have broken above multiple bullish patterns and I think the upside will probably be very limited. Bulls know that buying new highs in hopes of higher ones is unsustainable and we are close to the point where the bull wedge breaks and bulls will wait for pull-backs to buy.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears have a red bar on Friday, wooo ducking hooo. The bull wedge looks like it can break on Monday but bears know that 22k is the price to print, so I think they will be cautious. Only a big gap down on futures open and then follow-through below 21500 could change that. Bears can’t expect either the bull trend line nor the daily 20ema to just break on the next touch. They still have nothing until we see much bigger selling pressure. Anything below 21500 next week, would be a huge surprise for the bears.
Invalidation is above 22200.
short term: Neutral until we break below 21700. Below 21700 we will likely close the gap down to 21585 and test the lower wedge bull line.
medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full ducking bear mode.
current swing trade: Scaling in and out of shorts with stop 22300.
chart update: Adjusted bull wedge and bear targets.
Divergence Trading Explained For Beginners -DAX Pullback TradeTrading divergence in the Forex or Stock market can be an important tool. Learn how to identify divergences & practically apply them to your technical analysis to increase your edge & profits in the financial markets.
In this video you'll learn
What is a bullish and bearish divergence
How to use divergence to spot potential reversals in the market
How to use volume to identify key levels of reversals
How to measure out a "Kill Zone"
What are tweezer tops & tweezer bottoms & why they are important
How to use the Fibonacci retracement tool
How to use the Relative Strength Index (RSI Indicator)
Your Trading Coach - Akil
GER40-SELL strategy 6 hourly chartOverall I have no change in view, and at different levels, we remain overbought. The market re-tested previous highs and this spooked the market a bit, I feel. However, medium term I see a return to 20,850 area, based on longer term charts.
Short-term it is a tug of war game.
Strategy SELL @ 21,750- 22,000 and take profit at 20,950 for now.
GER40 "Germany 40" Indices Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱👤
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the GER40 "Germany 40" Indices Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 :
"The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (21250.00) then make your move - Bearish profits await!"
however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high or low level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at 21500.00 (swing Trade) Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯:
First Target 20800.00 (or) Escape Before the Target
Final Target 20300.00 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
GER40 "Germany 40" Indices Market is currently experiencing a Neutral (there is a high chance for Bearish trend)., driven by several key factors.
🟠Fundamental Analysis
1. Earnings Growth: The Germany 40 index has experienced a decline in earnings growth, with a 5-year average earnings growth rate of 5%.
2. Dividend Yield: The dividend yield of the Germany 40 index is currently 2.5%, which is relatively low compared to historical standards.
3. Valuation: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Germany 40 index is currently 15.6, which is slightly above its historical average.
⚪Macro Analysis
1. GDP Growth: The German economy has experienced a slowdown in GDP growth, with a 2022 growth rate of 1.4%.
2. Inflation: The inflation rate in Germany has remained relatively low, with a 2022 inflation rate of 1.4%.
3. Interest Rates: The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a dovish stance, keeping interest rates low to support economic growth.
🟢COT Analysis
1. Non-Commercial Traders: Non-commercial traders, such as hedge funds and institutional investors, have increased their short positions in the Germany 40 index, with a net short exposure of 10,000 contracts.
2. Commercial Traders: Commercial traders, such as banks and brokerages, have decreased their long positions in the Germany 40 index, with a net long exposure of 5,000 contracts.
⚫Sentiment Analysis
1. Retail Trader Sentiment: Retail traders have a bearish sentiment towards the Germany 40 index, with 55% being bearish.
2. Institutional Investor Sentiment: Institutional investors have decreased their bullish sentiment towards the Germany 40 index, with 50% being bullish.
3. Hedge Fund Sentiment: Hedge funds have increased their bearish sentiment towards the Germany 40 index, with 60% being bearish.
🟤Positioning Analysis
1. Long Positions: Long positions in the Germany 40 index have decreased, with a net long exposure of 50,000 contracts.
2. Short Positions: Short positions in the Germany 40 index have increased, with a net short exposure of 10,000 contracts.
3. Open Interest: Open interest in the Germany 40 index has decreased, with a current open interest of 500,000 contracts.
🟣Based on this analysis, the Germany 40 index is expected to trend bearish in the short term, with a 60% chance of a downtrend and a 30% chance of an uptrend. However, please note that market predictions can be unpredictable and influenced by various factors.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
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