DECEUR trade ideas
2024-05-23 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
If bears can get follow through selling tomorrow and trap bulls below the breakout levels, we could see acceleration of this selling. If bulls manage to BTFD and make money with it again, this madness continues for new highs I guess.
dax
comment: Another break of the neckline but bears need follow through. There are at least 3 measured move targets to around 18400-18450 so this will be the magnet for tomorrow. Invalid above 18760.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18800
bull case: Bulls closed right at yesterdays close 18750 but US session closed below the neckline. Bulls are in deep trouble tomorrow if they can’t pump this above 18700 early again. Below 18600, 18400 will come fast.
bear case: 18400. Invalid above 18760. No ifs buts whatnots here. Weekly close below 18400 and next week will be a bull slaughter.
short term: Still Bearish - 18400ish was not hit today but if we hit it tomorrow, you read it here first.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
trade of the day: 18800 was clear resistance and shorting with a reasonable 20-30 point stop was an amazing trade today. Second best was the retest of the open for another short at the 1h 20ema.
GER30We just got a tap in the fvg, and we expecting sells to take out the previous low on the 1 hour timeframe.
DAX continues to hold back bears.GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our outlook is bullish.
We look to Buy at 18655 (stop at 18555)
Our profit targets will be 18905 and 18955
Resistance: 18762 / 18806 / 18928
Support: 18680 / 18586 / 18500
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DAX SELLS @ 18715Selling Dax, supply looks to be strong enough to take us to demand below before continuing higher. Half risk again due to supply in an index.
Nice Correction On Dax; More Upside Ahead? Stocks remain in risk-on mode after Nvidia's beats earnings expecations, so it’s not surprising to see DAX also turning up. Index has stabilized at the first support area between 18,620 and 18,560 from where we can see the price attempting to break out of what can also be referred to as a bullish flag, therefore, the market will at some point resume higher into a 5th wave.
However, fourth-wave corrections can sometimes be tricky and complex, and it's not always easy to define the end of a wave four unless you wait a bit further for confirmation of a bullish reversal. In our example, if the DAX comes back to this week’s lows, the next significant, but also very strong, support can be found at the 38.2% Fibonacci level around 18,500.
In either case, we believe the DAX will remain in an uptrend, but don’t be alarmed by a potential top if we see deeper price action. The most important invalidation level for a trend change is at 18,237. The upward projection for wave 5 should be around 19,000.
Potential bullish rise off 23.6% Fibonacci support?DE40 is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 18,534.90
1st Support: 18,319.76
1st Resistance: 18,892.20
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GER 30 ON BEAR PUTS Orders Placed, no pending, all executed in time before the market made an impulsive move to the down side.
Aim for a 50% retest zone, then call for buys on corrections, and sell again on impulsive move targeting PSTG 1 & 2
DAX tentative reversalHey traders! 🌟 Here’s the scoop: we’ve got a tentative head and shoulders pattern forming on our charts. Why "tentative," you ask? Well, it hasn't confirmed itself just yet. This setup hints at a potential trend reversal, but let's not jump the gun.
🔍 What to Watch For:
Early Warning: Think of this pattern as a whisper of a possible trend direction change. But whispers aren’t enough—we need the full shout! 📣
Confirmation Game: No bearish momentum confirmation before hitting the neckline? No problem! This might just continue the current trend. 📈
🔺 Strategy Tip: If the right shoulder forms a triangle and we don’t see that bearish push, lean into the trend continuation play. Ride that wave! 🌊
Stay sharp, stay vibey, and happy trading! 🚀
3rd touch of trendlineim seeing a bulling movement for fomc as we have a 3rd touch of the hourly trendline.
German DAX H&S pattern setupIntraday Update: The German DAX is getting very close to the 18550 neckline of the head and shoulder pattern. A break lower may coincide with SPX below 5280
DAX40 Yesterday, we published an analysis of the DAX and we were with buying and we set three goals. The first goal was achieved and the market reversed, but we are still with buying the DAX in this area.
2024-05-21 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Markets went mostly flat today. Nasdaq printed a new ath on another low volume day. Unless markets strongly break above the highs or lows, very uneventful price action. Play the range until it clearly is not working anymore. SP500 printed a tripple top now and selling it again is a reasonable trade.
dax
comment: Bears making lower highs and lower lows but they are too weak to push the market below meaningful lower lows. Bulls are not too eager to print yet another ath and so we chop inside they given range. My head & should pattern lives as long as market stays below 18835, which is 15 points from when I wrote this, so low probability. For now we continue to oscillate around the 1h 20ema but I think the daily 20ema is close enough now for more algos to buy it, for another ATH or another melt-up to my weekly targets.
current market cycle: trading range - bulls broke 19000 but no follow through.
key levels: 18700 - 19000 - below 18700 is 18400 next and above 18840 is 19000 or much much higher again
bull case: Bulls kept it above 18700 which is still uber bullish. Next they will probably break above the bear trend line from ath and above 18840 for retest of the highs. Invalid below 18800.
bear case: Still no gap close to 18850 and we are making lower highs and lower lows. Bears need to step in above 18800 to stay inside the drawn triangle. Bulls closed above the 15 and 1h 20ema, which is not good for the bears. They need strong momentum around EU open to break below again. Bears also have going for them, that US closed green today and retest the highs or made newer highs, while dax made lower highs and lower lows. Their next target below 18800 is 18700 and then the daily ema around 18650. Invalid above 18840.
short term: Neutral 18700 - 18840. Head & Shoulders has still a very low chance of breaking down to around 18400 but don’t bet on then unless you see many strong consecutive bear bars tomorrow.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
trade of the day: Long from the EU open was ok, since bears could not close the gap to Friday. Bullish enough for target 18900ish.
DAX Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is trading in a
Strong uptrend and
The index broke the
Key horizontal level
Of 18,550 and is now
Consolidating above it
So we will be expecting
A further move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
DAX H4 | Potential bullish reversalThe DAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 18,671.33 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 18,450.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 18,923.54 which is a pullback resistance level at the all-time high.
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2024-05-20 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Markets moved mostly sideways today but commodities are on a tear, except for Oil. We can expect more volatility on the commodities side, since they are in play and everyone want’s some. Be humble to net get caught on the wrong side and have strong momentum on your side. For stock indexes I expect either another leg up which could start tomorrow or a bigger pull-back to the daily 20 ema.
dax
comment: Tight trading range 18800 - 18890. Absolutely neutral inside that range. Bulls only managed to get to around 50% pull-back from ath to 18700, which is weak but since bears could not even close the gap to Friday, that’s even more pathetic. Expecting more sideways until the triangle from the right shoulders breaks.
current market cycle: trading range - bulls broke 19000 but no follow through.
key levels: 18700 - 19000 - below 18700 is 18400 next.
bull case: Bulls keeping this at the highs and 300 points above the daily 20ema. As long as they keep this above 18700, they are in full control and higher highs are possible. For tomorrow I expect they will close the gap to 18850 and try higher again. The small bear trend line is their next resistance.
bear case: Bears kept it below the 50% pb most recent low to high. Market formed a head & shoulders pattern which fails more than it breaks down. It’s a continuation pattern and bears do not have the odds on their side here. They need to close the gap to 18792 and then retest 18700. For now I can’t see the market breaking that level without any catalyst.
short term: Bearish below 18880 and bullish above for test of 19000 or higher. Head & Shoulders break down confirmed with 15m close below 18700 for target 18400 or lower.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
trade of the day: Long from the EU open was ok, since bears could not close the gap to Friday. Bullish enough for target 18900ish.
Weekly Technical Analysis 20/05/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 has maintained its bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 18,733, now above the previous VWAP of 18,407. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 17,687 and 19,127, respectively. The RSI has decreased slightly to 63, indicating a slight moderation in bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
UK 100 remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price rising to 8,429, now above the previous VWAP of 8,312. Support has increased to 8,067, while resistance has risen to 8,556. The RSI has decreased to 74, reflecting a slight reduction in bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
Wall Street remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price rising notably to 40,028, which is well above the previous VWAP of 38,917. The support and resistance levels have adjusted to 37,507 and 40,327, respectively. The RSI has increased to 73, signalling a further increase in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend but has shifted from an impulsive to a corrective phase, with the price increasing slightly to 84.12, now slightly above the previous VWAP of 83.81. Support has adjusted higher to 80.84, while resistance has decreased to 86.78. The RSI has increased to 47, indicating a slight moderation in bearish sentiment compared to the previous report.
Gold has shifted to a bullish trend and moved into an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 2,442, now above the previous VWAP of 2,344. Support has adjusted higher to 2,258, while resistance has increased to 2,430. The RSI has increased significantly to 69, indicating a strengthening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
EUR/USD remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 1.0879, now above the previous VWAP of 1.0776. Support has adjusted higher to 1.0647, while resistance has risen to 1.0906. The RSI has increased significantly to 66, indicating a strengthening of bullish pressure compared to the previous report.
GBP/USD has shifted from a neutral to a bullish trend and moved into an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 1.2700, now above the previous VWAP of 1.2565. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2415, and resistance has increased to 1.2714. The RSI has increased significantly to 66, indicating a strengthening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
USD/JPY has shifted from a bullish to a neutral trend and moved into a consolidation phase, with the price at 155.76, holding above the VWAP of 155.38. Support has adjusted higher to 152.66, while resistance has increased to 158.11. The RSI has decreased slightly to 54, reflecting a moderation in sentiment compared to the previous report.
GR40 -EXTENDED RUNNote: Note that GR40 has been a relative strength leader above all other Index
Note same pattern is playing for all the index:
Dow, Nasdaq, S&P..
Currently broke and trading above the Friday bar, expecting continuation this Week
202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxdax cfd
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bears gave up since Monday and we melted 800 points higher. I got 2 measured move targets above, 19280 and 19650. Technically we should see a pull-back first and depending on how deep it is, we can calculate new targets. I think next week everything will be determined by the PPI and CPI prints. If they come in low, I think it’s very likely that we will see the 20000.
comment: Got that pull-back on Monday but weak and shallow. Bears tried again on Tuesday but bulls bought the ppi spike and rallied to a new ath 19006. Thursday was an surprisingly strong bear day and we sold off for 230 points and bulls could not get it much higher than 18800 on Friday. Both of my wave theses are still valid and Monday or Tuesday will determine the outcome. I won’t be a perma bear here and early again. Completely open to bulls melting up for my measured move targets or even 20000.
current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. If bulls keep going past 19000, obviously a bull trend but if they fail to print much higher than 19100, this was just a higher high in a trading range 17600 - 19000.
key levels: 18400 / 20000
bull case: Bulls got a new ath and market sold off for 200 points to close the week below 18900 which was the second weekly rejection of that price level. Bulls need to keep this pull-back shallow, inside the small bull channel and above the daily 20ema for continuation. The bull channel and the daily ema are close enough for me to think we either go sideways to touch them or dip and bounce. That would be a perfect two legged correction and odds would favor the bulls for a third leg up. Invalidation price would be somewhere between 18500 - 18600 and then the big bull trend line has to hold if we get there or the trend is done and we are in a trading range.
bear case: Last time we got here to a new ath, we pulled-back for 1300 points, very shortly after. Bears printed one good looking bearish engulfing candle on Thursday but for more bulls to begin taking profits, they need consecutive bear bars closing near the lows. If they can’t do that and market goes sideways, bulls will take it as a buy signal because after such a strong rally, odds favor another leg up. Right now market printed an expanding triangle and a two legged pullback near the bull trend line and ema. All of those patterns are buy signals. All of them can fail and we sell-off but from an odds perspective, bears are not favored until they do more. Invalidation for bears is above 18900ish.
outlook last week: “Pull-back should happen but longs are favored until bears make lower lows and break the 1h 20ema. I updated my daily chart but it’s only a very rough guess. Inflation prints will dominate the markets this week and I will give daily updates.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18894 and now we are at 18805. Two-legged pull-back happened as laid out.
short term: Can’t be anything but neutral with if-statements. If we strongly break below 18600 and bears keep the selling pressure high, this higher high double top could have been it and we get 18300-18400 next. If bulls (they are slightly favored) manage to break above 18900 again, we will most probably retest the ath or go directly into the third leg up or W5.
medium-long term: Time runs thin on my -20 to -30% correction target so I need to adjust the timeline. I’m confident we will print 17000 over the next 2-3 Months but 16600 could be tough so that could happen early 2025 as well. Will update this along the way. —unchanged
current swing trade: Shorted 18971 on 2024-05-16 and took profits on 2024-05-17. Will update this in the daily after hour updates from next week on.
Chart update: Updated wave thesis slightly and removed the first two-legged correction because it does not add value from here on.
202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxdax cfd
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bears gave up since Monday and we melted 800 points higher. I got 2 measured move targets above, 19280 and 19650. Technically we should see a pull-back first and depending on how deep it is, we can calculate new targets. I think next week everything will be determined by the PPI and CPI prints. If they come in low, I think it’s very likely that we will see the 20000.
comment: Got that pull-back on Monday but weak and shallow. Bears tried again on Tuesday but bulls bought the ppi spike and rallied to a new ath 19006. Thursday was an surprisingly strong bear day and we sold off for 230 points and bulls could not get it much higher than 18800 on Friday. Both of my wave theses are still valid and Monday or Tuesday will determine the outcome. I won’t be a perma bear here and early again. Completely open to bulls melting up for my measured move targets or even 20000.
current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. If bulls keep going past 19000, obviously a bull trend but if they fail to print much higher than 19100, this was just a higher high in a trading range 17600 - 19000.
key levels: 18400 / 20000
bull case: Bulls got a new ath and market sold off for 200 points to close the week below 18900 which was the second weekly rejection of that price level. Bulls need to keep this pull-back shallow, inside the small bull channel and above the daily 20ema for continuation. The bull channel and the daily ema are close enough for me to think we either go sideways to touch them or dip and bounce. That would be a perfect two legged correction and odds would favor the bulls for a third leg up. Invalidation price would be somewhere between 18500 - 18600 and then the big bull trend line has to hold if we get there or the trend is done and we are in a trading range.
bear case: Last time we got here to a new ath, we pulled-back for 1300 points, very shortly after. Bears printed one good looking bearish engulfing candle on Thursday but for more bulls to begin taking profits, they need consecutive bear bars closing near the lows. If they can’t do that and market goes sideways, bulls will take it as a buy signal because after such a strong rally, odds favor another leg up. Right now market printed an expanding triangle and a two legged pullback near the bull trend line and ema. All of those patterns are buy signals. All of them can fail and we sell-off but from an odds perspective, bears are not favored until they do more. Invalidation for bears is above 18900ish.
outlook last week: “Pull-back should happen but longs are favored until bears make lower lows and break the 1h 20ema. I updated my daily chart but it’s only a very rough guess. Inflation prints will dominate the markets this week and I will give daily updates.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18894 and now we are at 18805. Two-legged pull-back happened as laid out.
short term: Can’t be anything but neutral with if-statements. If we strongly break below 18600 and bears keep the selling pressure high, this higher high double top could have been it and we get 18300-18400 next. If bulls (they are slightly favored) manage to break above 18900 again, we will most probably retest the ath or go directly into the third leg up or W5.
medium-long term: Time runs thin on my -20 to -30% correction target so I need to adjust the timeline. I’m confident we will print 17000 over the next 2-3 Months but 16600 could be tough so that could happen early 2025 as well. Will update this along the way. —unchanged
current swing trade: Shorted 18971 on 2024-05-16 and took profits on 2024-05-17. Will update this in the daily after hour updates from next week on.
Chart update: Updated wave thesis slightly and removed the first two-legged correction because it does not add value from here on.
