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2024-07-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - #daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes just strongly green. No deeper analysis needed. Support held everywhere and markets just melted again. My top call was as moronic as can be. Markets humble you quickly. Obviously I was not humbled enough so far. Does not change my mind about this peak bubble behavior at the end of this trend and we correct/crash into year end. Commodities - Gold inside a triangle and it’s important for bears to stay below 2390 or very likely breakout above again, shorts preferred for trade back to below 2375. Oil got the expected bounce a bit later but still there. My target was 83/84 and high was 82.65. I expect some more tries by the bulls but should stay below 84 before more down. Bitcoin - Bulls got higher than expected but bears did a nice reversal a bit below the daily ema. Market behaves nicely. Good chance we go down to the lows from here at 57200. dax comment: Strong day by the bulls in a very tight channel. Bulls need to get above 18650 again to test 18800. Bears want a deep pullback like on Monday. It’s a big triangle with one giant bear trend line and multiple bull trend lines below. Market will have a couple more days inside the range before a big breakout. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema so excuse my short analysis. Market is in balance inside given range. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 18380 - 18800 bull case: Perfect double bottom 18370 for the bulls and a strong move for 250+ points. Bulls expect follow through tomorrow and want to reach 18800 again. Invalidation is below 18470. bear case: Bears argue for a retest 18600 but they would need a very strong reversal around 18600 and that is not probable. If bulls continue to buy strongly, bears will probably step aside until 18760 and try shorting higher again. Invalidation is above 18630. short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500 trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-07-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes mostly had big ups and big downs today. DJI and Russel are pretty wild. Dax puked hard, which I probably announced too many times by now but yeah. 18000 soon. Nasdaq: Refuses to go down. Every 1h bear bar has a big tail below, means bulls are in max euphoria and buying every dip, every tick. Bottom of the bull channel had 3 3 touches and we can probably expect another test of the highs tomorrow. Can be higher, lower or an exact double top, no never now in advance and it does not matter because you trade them the same. Trading range 20570 - 20770. Peak bubble. Commodities - Gold support at 2355 held again but lower highs. Give it 1-2 more days until the next breakout and my money is on the bears. Will see 2300 again soon. Oil mostly sideways today, big support above 81 but still lower lows and lower highs. I expect a dead cat bounce as laid out in my weekly update. Will print below 80 this or next week. Bitcoin - W4 going sideways with big swings. Decent two legged pullback on the daily chart and could break down again soon but since market went sideways for one week during W2, we can expect a bit more sideways. Small swing short currently after taking big profits from the previous down to 54000. 57855 entry, sl 58800. dax comment: current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 18580 - 18800 bull case: Bulls tried to print above 18650 4 times on Monday and today and since market found not enough buyers, we tested lower. Bulls gave up below 18500 once market went there the third time today. Bulls are still in a higher low on the daily chart but this bear bar today was the final nail imo. Invalidation is below 18180. bear case: Bears in full control again. Below all ema and today they broke below the bear channel and markt held there. Very strong selling and we can expect more. Bears want to test the small bull trend line around 18300. If they break even that, it’s the next trend line around 18200. I do not expect bears to break below that and the triangle will probably play out more days before a big breakout to the downside. Invalidation is above 18630. short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500 trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-07-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax/oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Trading range price action. Elevator up and stairs down today. Helps no one and we have to wait for tomorrow for a clear direction. Market is oscillating around the 1h and the daily 20ema. Fade the extremes until clear breakout. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18580 - 18800 bull case: Bulls tried again at 18800 and only got a lower high below it. They bought 18600 and until that range breaks, it’s neutral. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Either bears print below 18600 or step aside for another lower high below 18700. Until then, bulls will continue to btfd. Invalidation is above 18830. short term: Bullish around 18600 for trade back to at least 18680. Stop has to be 18570 for any long. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. trade of the day: Strong small pullback bull trend since EU open and market could not touch the 2m 20ema for 130 points. Market also reversed just as hard but a bit slower couple of minutes after the high. Had to be quick to exit longs once bar 36 traded below 35 without any pullback. Bulls quickly gave up above 18780.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
Weekly Technical AnaylsisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below) Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis Germany 40 is pushing the upper boundary of its sideways trend, having broken out of a tight sideways consolidation, with the price increasing to 18,556.1, now above the VWAP of 18,229.9. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 17,931.4 and 18,555.4, respectively. The RSI has increased to 59, indicating rising momentum. UK 100 remains in a neutral sideways trend, with the price stuck in the middle of a tight range, just above the VWAP of 8202. Support has adjusted to 8,122.6, while resistance has increased to 8,283.1. The RSI is at 51.27, reflecting a lack of momentum in either direction. Wall Street has entered a new bullish trend but remains below the May peak, with the price recently increasing to 39,390, now above the VWAP of 39,138.7. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,759.4 and 39,388.0, respectively. The RSI has increased to 60.87, signalling a slight decrease in bullish momentum compared to the previous report. Brent Crude remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase albeit with a downturn in the last few days to just above the VWAP of 8,323. Support has adjusted higher to 8,323.28, while resistance has increased to 8,729.57. The RSI has turned lower to 55.70, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum. Gold remains in a sideways trend but has just broken the June peak, with the price recently increasing to 2,372, now around the previous VWAP of 2,338. Support has adjusted higher to 2,288.88, while resistance has increased to 2,389.04. The RSI has gotten stronger to 58.12, indicating the potential beginnings of a new period of higher momentum. EUR/USD has broken out from its previous downtrend but the new uptrend needs to take out the June high to be sustainable. It is now well above the VWAP of 1.0746. Support has adjusted higher to 1.06423, while resistance has increased to 1.08497. The RSI has increased to 60.67, indicating a reduction in bearish pressure. GBP/USD remains officially in a neutral trend but the recent breakout suggests a new uptrend is emerging, with the price increasing to 1.28252, well above the VWAP of 1.27027. Support has adjusted upwards to 1.25666, and resistance has increased to 1.2825. The RSI has increased to 66.63, indicating fresh bullish momentum to sustain a possible new uptrend. USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend and near multi-decade highs and remains within an impulsive phase above the VWAP, with the price near 160.930. Support has adjusted higher to 157.568, while resistance has increased to 162.476. The RSI has increased to 67.46, reflecting continually strong bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Friday I wrote on twitter that the highs are probably in and I will stand by that. Can I be wrong by another 100 points in the sp500? Sure but I doubt it. The patterns to sell down are aligning on the monthly, weekly and daily tf. The buying was more than climactic and we can see enough indicators pointing down or are already bad. Big institutions won’t jeopardize their whole trading year with overstaying in this bubble. The past 3 trading days formed a perfect bull trap and if bears can start the reverse early next week, we will see some acceleration downwards. As always, don’t blindly long/short anything. Wait for confirmation before you enter a trade. dax: Big up, big down, bigger up. Interesting week but again, nasty reversal bar on Friday. I doubt bulls will buy this up again. The right shoulder here looks decent enough on the daily chart and market could drop 600 points from here. Confirmation for the bears is a print below 18500. If bulls are strong, they stay inside the wedge and trade back above 18800. 55/45 for the bears imo. Quote from last week: comment: Market was completely neutral past week. Let’s look at the weekly chart and what it tells us. 5 Week selloff and now 2 bull weeks and past week was as neutral as it gets. Tells us that the market is in balance and does not know where it will go next. We can draw multiple bad bear trend lines and all are valid until broken. Does not help with trading at this price. Since we have a decent bull support line from the April and June low, we know that the market is in a triangle and the middle is most likely around 18300. As long as market is coming back to that price, you buy low and sell high. Since market is also staying above the weekly 20ema, bears are not favored to suddenly break below it. It’s also trading below the daily 20ema and did not have a daily close above it for 12 trading days. It’s a trading range near the ath, where the market is compressing and will soon see a breakout. comment: We got the breakout to the upside, then the downside and another upside breakout again. Clearly not the continuation of a strong bull trend but a leg inside the trading range. Friday’s bull bar is a bad buy going into next week, which raises the odds of market moving sideways to down. Two bull wedges on the daily chart and I slightly favor the bears to break to the downside at least to the daily ema 18460. Weekly tf gives head & shoulders vibe but as long as market is staying above the weekly 20ema at 18200, it’s neutral inside the given key level. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 18200 / 18800 bull case: Bulls want to stay inside the bull wedges and break above them to retest the ath 19006. They are making higher highs and higher lows and are above all important ema. Invalidation is below 18540. bear case: Only hope for bears was the decent sell off on Friday for a quick -249 points in 1h which denied the market a daily close above 18700 for 29 trading days. Left shoulder from March/April high was 18836 and Friday’s high was 18822. Close is always close enough. They also see the two bull wedges we have formed and want a break to the downside. Their first target is a retest of Friday’s low 18575 which is almost the open of last week to the tick. If they manage to break below 18540, their next target is the daily 20ema at 18470 and that’s also close to the 50% pb for this whole trading range. Invalidation is a 1h close above 18800. outlook last week: short term: Can’t be anything but neutral again. Bears managed to stay below the daily 20ema but bulls bought the weekly 20ema. Trading range price action. Will get a breakout soon. → Last Sunday we traded 18417 and now we are at 18666. High of the week was 18822 and the low was 18190. Outlook was ok. Market closed 40ish points above the open of the week and we made new lows and new highs. Trading range price action, which is why I was and am neutral for this market. short term: Neutral. Higher highs, lower lows. Expanding triangle, form of trading range. 50% pb is 18439 and if bulls do not rally strongly on Monday, I will look for weakness and a pullback to 18450 or lower. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged current swing trade: Nothing Chart update: Bear wave and trend line is gone and added bull wedges.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
ANALYSIS DAX 05/07/2024DAX index with various technical indicators. Here’s a detailed analysis and a strategy for trading based on the information presented: Key Components of the Chart VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): Weekly VWAP: The values shown are 18,292.03 (low), 18,608.91 (average), and 17,975.16 (high). VWAP is a trading benchmark that gives the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price. Volume Profile: The gray bars on the left indicate the volume traded at different price levels. Higher volume at specific price levels can indicate strong support or resistance zones. Bollinger Bands: These are the blue and green bands around the price action. Bollinger Bands consist of a middle band (simple moving average) and two outer bands (standard deviations away from the middle band). The bands expand and contract based on market volatility. Candlestick Patterns: The chart shows the price movement through candlesticks, which indicate the opening, closing, high, and low prices for each time period. Horizontal Lines: The orange line around the 18,450 level and the light blue lines around 17,900 and 18,600 levels indicate important support and resistance levels. Technical Analysis Trend Analysis: The DAX index is in an uptrend, as evidenced by the series of higher highs and higher lows. The price is trading above the weekly VWAP, indicating bullish momentum. Support and Resistance: Immediate resistance is around the 18,453.24 level (current price). Significant support levels are at 18,000 and 17,800. Bollinger Bands: The price is currently near the upper Bollinger Band, which could indicate overbought conditions. This suggests a potential pullback or consolidation in the near term. Volume Profile: High volume nodes around the 18,000 to 18,500 range suggest strong buying interest and potential support if the price pulls back. Market Sentiment: The consistent uptrend and position above the VWAP suggest bullish market sentiment. However, traders should watch for signs of reversal or consolidation near resistance levels. Strategy for Buying and Selling DAX Entry (Buy) Strategy Support Levels: Buy on Pullbacks to Support: Look for buying opportunities when the price pulls back to the support levels at 18,000 or 17,800. Confirm the support with a bounce or bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing). VWAP: Buy Above VWAP: Consider buying when the price is trading above the weekly VWAP (18,608.91) as it indicates bullish momentum. Volume Confirmation: High Volume on Pullbacks: Ensure there is significant volume when the price approaches support levels, indicating strong buying interest. Bollinger Bands: Buy Near Lower Bollinger Band: If the price touches or approaches the lower Bollinger Band, it can indicate the price is oversold and might reverse. Exit (Sell) Strategy Resistance Levels: Sell at Resistance: Look to take profits near the resistance level at 18,453.24. If the price struggles to break this level, it may reverse. VWAP: Sell Below VWAP: If the price drops below the weekly VWAP, it can indicate a shift to bearish momentum. Consider selling if this happens. Volume Confirmation: High Volume on Rallies: Ensure there is significant volume when the price approaches resistance levels, indicating strong selling interest. Bollinger Bands: Sell Near Upper Bollinger Band: If the price touches or approaches the upper Bollinger Band, it can indicate the price is overbought and might reverse. Risk Management Stop-Loss Placement: Below Support for Longs: Place stop-loss orders slightly below the identified support levels (e.g., below 17,800 if buying at 18,000) to limit potential losses. Above Resistance for Shorts: If shorting, place stop-loss orders slightly above the identified resistance levels. Position Sizing: Use Appropriate Position Size: Calculate your position size based on your risk tolerance and the distance to your stop-loss. Ensure you're not risking more than a small percentage (e.g., 1-2%) of your trading capital on a single trade. Trailing Stop: Protect Profits with Trailing Stop: Use a trailing stop to lock in profits as the price moves in your favor. This allows you to capture more gains if the trend continues while protecting against sudden reversals. Example Trade Plan Entry: Buy at 18,000 with confirmation of support. Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss at 17,700. Take Profit: Set initial take profit at 18,453.24. Trailing Stop: Implement a trailing stop of 100 points to capture additional gains if the price continues to rise. This strategy leverages support and resistance levels, VWAP, and Bollinger Bands to identify optimal buy and sell points while incorporating sound risk management practices. Always adjust your strategy based on real-time market conditions and additional technical or fundamental analysis.
XETR:DAX
by crktrader
2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Uneventful trading was expect, since US holidays mostly go sideways in a tight trading range. Market had a good spike at the open which had to be faded and that was the trade of the day. Other than that, market is oscillating around 18600, which is 25 points above the open of the week/month. It’s do or die for both sides here. If bulls can break above 18630, 18900 comes in play. If bears win it, we could have a nasty reversal and will be on our way to 18000 again. I still think the bears trend line could be in play, if bears trade below it early tomorrow. If not, successful breakout above and odds will favor the bulls. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 18200 - 18600 bull case: Bulls want to break above 18600 and out of the triangle. If they manage that, bears will likely give up and market is free to trade 18800 or 19000 again. —unchanged Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears need to prevent prices above 18630 and break outside of this tight bull wedge. Dax is in a trading range for 6 months and betting on a continuation of it, is far more profitable in the long run than betting on breakouts. R:R here is on the bears side but I would not think about shorts above 18500. So bears see an expanding triangle, a bigger triangle and a small bull trend that already had 3 pushes up. If they can’t turn it here, we will probably melt to 19000 like nasdaq did today. Since we are currently seeing a funny rotation between the markets, absolutely possible that liquidity will be shoved into Dax tomorrow for a breakout. Update: Since text above is still valid, I did not change it. Invalidation is above 18630. short term: Can’t be bearish after 2 strong bull days but I sure won’t be bullish at multiple resistances. I wait for strong buying/selling and follow the market. Can absolutely see this breaking to either side tomorrow. What I don’t expect is market to stall above 18500. Either down or up. —unchanged medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Just don’t trade on these days unless you are 9/10 days in tight trading ranges profitable. If you enjoy my writings, please leave a boost or follow. Thank you and I wish your trading to be profitable.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds