Faith in the wave principleThis serves as a reminder to adhere to the wave principle discovered by Ralph Nelson Elliott. I'm sharing this photo as it's the only documentation of the diagnosis before the development of this analytical idea. It's essential to pay attention to signs that confirm an idea when sharing it with friends, such as the invalidation of the analysis, the passing of the price of the aggressive and conservative idea, as well as the formation of each correction and action pattern. This is a detail I want to emphasize because I don't want anyone to experience the psychological suffering of losing capital. I wish everyone success and recovery in the field of analysis and trading. I am nobody, which is why I chose the nickname Mr. Nobody.
DECEUR trade ideas
The idea of extending the DAX bull marketGreetings
The recent discussion regarding the Dax Market presented a single potential scenario, exploring a specific structural formation. It is important to note that my analysis stems from a background in technical analysis, and my initial viewpoint was based on the observed structure. However, it is crucial to emphasize that I do not lay claim to expertise in market analysis, though I do hold a strong belief in the wave principle, substantiated by my observations and experiences.
Presently, I present a more assertive notion. My assessment indicates the emergence of a 4th wave pattern resembling a double zigzag pattern. The confirmation for trading lies in the conservative breach of the wave X price of this pattern. I recommend considering the price action in conjunction with the formation of the impulse pattern, as well as the development of any corrective pattern. This strategy aligns with a bullish market trend.
Wishing you success in your endeavors.
Dax - the Corrective Big PictureAll markets experienced Bedlam. Yesterday. It happens and provides opportunity.
Surely the market can't go lower ?
In the last 5 years there have been Corrective retracements in the current Bull Cycle, two of
which were Bear Markets.
Given the current downturn is only 10.5% , there is room for further downside.
On a daily basis, yesterday was the highest volume in 2 years. But on a monthly basis, we
can see the Volume is anemic. Buyers remain on the sidelines for now.
German DAX - More Downside Potential From Here?Germany's DAX index has broken down definitively from its 4-month symmetrical triangle pattern, hinting at a potential "measured move" decline toward the mid-16,000s next.
So far, the index has dropped sharply over the last 3 days to hit the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally off the November low near 17,250. A near-term bounce off this support level wouldn't be surprising, but as it stands, the index may have more near-term potential for downside from here.
-MW
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
NOTE: These charts use the ‘Pro Trading Tools’ available on the SpreadEx trading platform. To use them, log in to your SpreadEx Financials Account and click ‘Technical’ from the menu on any chart.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 has transitioned to a bearish trend and is now in an impulsive phase, with the price decreasing to 17,264, below the VWAP of 18,293. Support has adjusted to 17,544, while resistance has increased to 19,041. The RSI has decreased significantly to 26, indicating strong bearish momentum compared to the previous report.
UK 100 has shifted to a bearish trend and is in an impulsive phase, with the price decreasing to 7,999, now below the big 8000 level and the VWAP of 8,221. Support has adjusted to 8,055, while resistance has increased to 8,387. The RSI has decreased to 34, reflecting a significant reduction in bullish momentum.
Wall Street remains in a bullish trend but has entered a corrective phase, with the price decreasing to 39,137, now below the VWAP of 40,451. This correction could swiftly turn into a new bearish trend. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 39,433 and 41,470, respectively. The RSI has decreased to 37, indicating fresh bearish momentum.
Brent Crude is now at new lows for the year in a new bearish trend and in a short-term bearish impulsive phase, with the price decreasing further to 75.73, now below the VWAP of 81.08. Support has adjusted lower to 75.74, while resistance has increased to 86.18. The RSI has decreased to 29, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum.
Gold looks to be transitioning into a bearish trend with a steep correction of its long-running uptrend, with the price gapping down to 2,385, below the VWAP of 2,415. Support has adjusted lower to 2,358, while resistance has increased to 2,473. The RSI has dropped to 46, indicating a switch from bullish to bearish momentum.
EUR/USD remains in a bullish trend and has entered an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 1.0962, now above the VWAP of 1.0872. Support has adjusted lower to 1.0785, while resistance has increased to 1.0962. The RSI has increased significantly to 65, indicating strong bullish momentum.
GBP/USD remains in a bullish trend but continues in a corrective phase, with the price slightly decreasing to 1.2787, now below the VWAP of 1.2888. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2744, and resistance has decreased slightly to 1.3031. The RSI has decreased to 43, indicating reduced bullish momentum.
USD/JPY has shifted to a bearish trend and remains in an impulsive phase, with the price decreasing significantly to 142.24, now below the VWAP of 153.94. Support has adjusted higher to 144.86, while resistance has increased to 163.03. The RSI has decreased sharply to 10, reflecting a significant reduction in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
DAX 40 VSA UpdateLook at the rally from the recent Swing Low.
You will see high volume candles (yellow) and ultra high volume candles (red) , but
look at the size of the candle bodies (Spread).
The buyers have pushed, but the Sellers have exerted equal pressure.
So for maximal effort , there is no result.
When there is a divergence of price and volume, there will be a give.
Short bias.
Fears are risingFears are rising after week job reports were released last week and NFP . Feds may have left interest rate stagnent for too long which may have affected the economy.
US30: Price only began to move with strength on thursday after the jobs report which means investors were exiting there positions. Price fill imbalance on the 4H and reach a 4H order block then has dropped and created bearish structure. I will expect thid to continue.
GER40: After taking Mondats highs on Thursday after the job report, the DAX fell also as well. This pair had me abit lost as once the overall momentum began to go sideways, I'd admit I was still stuck in everything being bullish. But as an accumulation shows the market looking for equilibrium and signs of a reversal, I shouldve know better that signs of a weaker market is near. Also 4H lows being broke from the 13th June and structure seeming to favour bearish accumulation.
Both pairs I will be looking for price to continue to drop as long as price action is bearish.