NDQUSD trade ideas
US 100 Nas is in a bullish trend , a long position can be considered when it retraces back to 21570 with SL around last low
iamtradingdon | NAS100 Market Daily Technical AnalysisWhile NAS100 continues to display a bullish trend, I closely monitor indicators suggesting a likely bearish shift. The price has consistently encountered resistance at a Rejection Block, marking this area as a significant institutional resistance zone. If the price drops and a bearish candle closes below 21735, I will establish my target at 21580.
Bullish momentum to extend?USTEC is falling towards the pivot which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 21,631.48
1st Support: 21,398.63
1st Resistance: 21,909.69
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Nasdaq Market Analysis: 12-Dec-2024Nasdaq trading insights: Not signals, but informative zones to aid your decision-making. Please note: These zones are not trading advice. Use them as a starting point for your own analysis.
NASDAQ 100 10 Rules for Market Dynamics (Translated to English)
If the price "accepts" a value area, it is highly likely to reach the other extreme.
If the price is within a value area, the expectation is for it to remain INSIDE until there are clear signs otherwise.
Price tends to be "choppier" within a consolidated value area due to high liquidity. Define tolerance zones.
Do not trade in the middle zone (POC).
If the price is accepted OUTSIDE the value area, the expectation is for the condition of the market to change and likely expand.
US100The NASDAQ trend is expected to remain bullish,
but corrections in the market movement are natural and necessary.
Therefore, if weakness in continuation is observed, I will sell with smaller volume and trade more aggressively in the bullish direction.
The identified targets are 21,930 and the range of 22,230 to 22,445.
Additionally, I am interested in buying at discounted prices, specifically around the 21,640 level.
The current chart lacks a clean structure, so the market might form small ranges before continuing its upward movement.
Top of the rising wedgeThe price has hit the top of the rising wedge and a trendline that starts from March 2022 top (top of a big orange channel).
There is also a solid bear divegence on 4H and even a tiny bear divergence on 1D tf.
I expect a pullback from here, but I'm not sure if it will be a reversal or we will see a new ATH soon. Need help of elliotitians, I can't count these damn waves.
Short potential in NAS 100 looks promising!
Description of trade
As we very clearly identify a HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern in 1hr TF and 4TF , there is a high probability of pair to reverse , as we see constantly with this chart pattern .
Price if retests on the neckline after 1330 UK TIME ( MAJOR RED NEWS TIME ) , we could potentially look for a short trade with good SL and lot size in line with your account size.
There are two ways I will be looking to trade this pair today during session (NEW YORK )
A MEDIUM RISK TRADE:
I will look to place a sell - limit on the current neckline of the pattern , with my Stop loss being on top of the right shoulder , as my stop loss will have lot of room, my lot size will be smaller to manage my risk accordingly.
A HIGH RISK TO REWARD TRADE
Second way foe me to enter this trade would be after 1330 high news today , to trade along with market structure i normally trade , i.e. seeing fractal structure , liquidity grab and so on , this will however have small stop loss but bigger lot size . This will be entered on 15TF or 30 min TF .
Notes : This are the probabilities for today , if we do not see the expected footprint from the market , remember there's a always a next day to trade.
My expectations for Nasdaq 100Hi guys, I hope you are doing well
** The index jumped up and passed two important resistance lines and even settled on them
** The index also passed my Fib so important level 23.6% and needs only to settle on then surge up towards my TP level
** The Used time frame on the chart is 4H and I used also the daily and the weekly frames for that analysis
** I see that there is a room to surge up too my second Fib retracement level but I prefer currently to set my long to the TP on the chart to avoid a possible retracement!
My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help.
I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
NAS100USD: Anticipating Temporary Bearish Order Flow?Greetings Traders,
Today's analysis highlights significant bullish momentum in NAS100USD, driven by the heavy volatility following the CPI news release. Despite the bullish institutional order flow, there is potential for temporary bearish order flow. This could either serve as a brief retracement to meet specific objectives before continuing the bullish trend or, possibly, a full reversal of price action. While we must wait for further market confirmation, current conditions provide an opportunity to target the sell stop objectives highlighted on the chart.
Key Observations and Confluences:
1. Institutional Price Delivery Insight:
At present, price is positioned in a premium zone and has recently taken out Engineered Resistance Liquidity, where premium buy stops reside. Institutions often use this liquidity to pair orders by selling against these buy stops.
Institutions, having sold at a premium, will aim to buy back positions at a discount (a process associated with profit-taking). Therefore, we anticipate price to move towards liquidity pools at lower discount levels.
2. Trendline Liquidity:
The chart also reveals engineered trendline liquidity, a classic setup where retail traders buy along the trendline, leaving their stop losses below. Institutions view these stop losses as sell stops, representing willing sellers against whom they can close their buy positions. This makes these lows prime targets for institutional activity.
The current evidence provides a strong foundation to anticipate bearish price action towards these liquidity pools, offering a strategic opportunity to align with the institutional narrative.
If you have any insights, questions, or additional analysis, feel free to share them in the comments below. Let's collaborate and grow together as traders.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
US100 - Potential Long SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level higher.
But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of strength, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price higher
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
USTEC, Bullish Channel, New Highs FormationWeekly support retest
Trading in bullish channel
Previous high broken
New high Formation
Buy @ CMP
Sl below weekly resistance
TP towards channel Top
Nasdaq 100 approaches our target; what's next?The Nasdaq 100 is up 1.25% at the time of publishing this outlook, and the price is just 84 basis points away from reaching the target we highlighted at the beginning of the month. At that time, we noted that a break above $21,220 could lift the index to $21,884. The new trend-defining level is yesterday's low of $21,354, and if the price dips toward $21,565, traders are likely to continue buying, aiming for $21,884 as they try to capitalize on the famed Christmas rally.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
SPX on a long timeframeThis chart is mostly for me, so I can come back to it, later... but as you can see, we'll go up and down, but likely to go more up than down :)
USTECH looking for short!!I opened a short yesterday at the upper end of this channel. Look for a restest of the upper boundary post CPI for another short!!
NASDAQ Technical Analysis: CPI Impact on Bearish MomentumTechnical Analysis
The price will trade under bearish momentum and high volatility due to the CPI data we have Today, as expectation the indices should trade at the bearish area, on the other hand technically side, as long as Nasdaq trades below 21535 and 21410 will be bearish toward 21220 especially if the result published more than expected which is 2.7%.
Otherwise, CPI Less than 2.7% will support bullish to get a new ATH especially if close 4h candle above 21535.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 21480
Resistance Levels: 21570, 21670, 21870
Support Levels: 21320, 21220, 21150
Trend Outlook: Bearish Momentum with some correction
Nasdaq reflects caution on inflation and ratesWall Street turned red at the close. The Nasdaq Composite, the main reference for the technology sector in the United States, fell -0.25% on Tuesday, closing at 19,687.24 points. This decline reflects the impact of a combination of macroeconomic and sectoral factors that are keeping the entire market on its toes.
Nasdaq Performance in Context
Although the index has had an outstanding performance this year, with a cumulative gain of close to 40%, led by technology giants such as Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet, it has generated . However, the stock's pullback this week that underscores the sector's sensitivity to monetary policy expectations and global regulatory risks.
Among the factors that contributed to the Nasdaq's decline this week were:
• Regulatory pressures - China's investigation into Nvidia, one of the world's largest chipmakers, dragged down the Philadelphia semiconductor index (-2.5%) and weighed on tech stocks.
• Mixed corporate results: Oracle declined 6.7% after missing revenue estimates despite being consistent, and MongoDB lost 16.9% despite improving its annual forecast.
Short-term outlook
The tech market faces additional uncertainties with upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data key to the Fed's rate decision. If the November CPI meets estimates of 2.7% y/y, it could facilitate a 25 basis point rate cut in December, strengthening market sentiment. Currently the FedWatch data indicates that there is an increasing likelihood of a cut rather than a hold at current rates. In addition, the Fed's tone is expected to provide signals on the future direction of rates, which will directly impact appetite for high-growth assets such as technology.
Technical Aspect
Currently, yesterday the index made a crossover of averages generating that the average of 50 crossed over the average of 100 marking the fall of yesterday's prices. At the moment there is still a long distance to go before the averages approach the 200, but this crossover has positioned the price in the check point (POC) zone. So, if the CPI and rates news do not strongly modify this trend, we could be witnessing a possible temporary sideways movement of the index in this last part of the year.
Overall, although the Nasdaq continues to show strength for the year, macroeconomic and regulatory challenges are key factors to watch, especially in an environment where monetary policies could moderate the pace of economic recovery.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Nasdaq analysis: 11-Dec-2024Good morning, everyone! Today's Nasdaq analysis is designed to educate and empower. Use these insights to refine your price action trading strategy.
Short-term pressure seen on USTECFundamental Perspective:
USTEC pared recent gains as Oracle's (ORCL) disappointing earnings and Nvidia's (NVDA) ongoing scrutiny from Chinese regulators dampened investor confidence. Alphabet (GOOGL) surged after unveiling a quantum computing breakthrough.
However, lofty valuations and concerns over potential antitrust scrutiny of tech giants weighed on USTEC.
President-elect Trump has appointed Andrew Ferguson as FTC Chair, replacing Lina Khan. Ferguson could ease regulatory pressure on business mergers, potentially streamlining deal approvals while maintaining a tough stance on antitrust enforcement against tech giants.
This mirrors Trump’s first-term approach, with major lawsuits targeting big tech like Google (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META). The ongoing scrutiny of tech stocks could temper upward momentum in the USTEC.
Technical Perspective:
USTEC pared recent gains and formed a head-and-shoulders pattern following a break of the pattern's neckline near 21420. If the price sustains its bearish momentum below 21420, a further decline toward the 21200 support might occur. This support zone aligns with the ascending trend line and is a significant resistance-turned-support zone, as the price peaked in November before a further rally. Conversely, a break above 21420 could prompt a deeper pullback toward the next resistance at 21580.
Author: Li Xing Gan, CMT, CFTe,
Financial Market Strategist Consultant to Exness
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 10 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None, but tomorrow is CPI
News - None
Directional bias - BUY. The M TF is very bullish and until there is a reversal pattern eg. DT on a high TF (like the D TF at least), I continue to hold my buy bias.
Morning analysis:
M TF - very bullish
D TF - Price is right at the neckline area (marked in green) at time of writing this morning. If candles start closing below neckline towards the mushroom, Nas will turn bearish, because then a day DT has formed with the neckline broken down (change the D TF chart to a line chart and it will be easily visible). D fib retracement levels were broken down yesterday, in other words bulls were not able to overcome the bears at these levels and bears push down past these levels. Now only W retracement levels remaining. W 0.382 fib level is 2800 pips down (at time of writing in the morning). Bulls last defense against the bears is the D neckline (marked in green) and a strong D support level, exactly at the D neckline. So this is the level were bulls will have to step in if they do today.
4H TF - Shrinking red candles at C. indicate a loss of bearish momentum. Hoping that bulls will push up from the green support / neckline. Drawn in the SELL fib levels because these will be key take profit levels. Sell fib drawn from swing high at B. to swing low at A.
As the day progressed:
As the morning progressed a falling wedge pattern formed on the 1H TF, as marked by the thick pink lines.
Entered a buy at the hand icon, when price broke upwards on the 15min TF - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - Falling wedge pattern formed on 1H TF, right above key support. Pattern broken upwards, indicating that price is ready to move upwards
2. S&R - Green line represents D Neckline and key D support area. On the 1H TF, price is reacting to the 100 EMA, indicating that the torquiose EMA line is acting as dynamic support.
3. Trend - Buy is in the overall bullish trend of Nasdaq. Also the temporary downtrend line (the top pink line of the market pattern) is broken, indicating that price is ready to move upwards
4. Fib - None
5. Candlesticks - Shrinking candles on the 4H, indicating loss of bearish momentum
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line. I was willing to risk more today because it might have come down one last time to test the green line, this was purely based on my feeling, which luckily turned out not be true.
Luckily I had zero draw down and price shot up.
I took partial profits at the top hand icon (because that was TP2 on the buy fib (as drawn) and then closed almost all the rest of my position at the blue arrow (when a strong DT started forming on the 15min TF).
I left a runner open, just in case I could possibly benefit from a push up at CPI tomorrow, but this was taken out at entry ultimately.
Majority of my profits was about 1000 pips.
Stats:
The total bullish move for the day was +- 1575 pips:
I captured 63% of the total move (I'm happy with that).
Amazing to see how price reacted to the sell fibs today. Fib levels are real baby!
P.S. A note from yesterday's trading....I took a loss of 800 pips yesterday (I tried twice and hit SL twice). I was pretty bummed about it and didn't post :(
Won't be trading CPI tomorrow, because I feel I cant stack the probabilities in my favour! See ya Monday!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Tomorrow's CPI is probably going to give SP500 the pullback S&P500 pullback is due
Tomorrow's CPI will give it the momentum to sell.
