DXY Broken the channal with bearish momentumDXY Broken the channal with bearish momentum. It may retrace before bearish momentum continues
USXUSD trade ideas
DXY, what, when & why?, through patternsH!, trying to give some reasons behind the DXY movement during previous few months and weeks using patterns
going to add few more graphics below
hope u like it
thanks
Dollar Index for Next 2 yearsThe Dollar Index (DXY) has been a critical gauge of the U.S. dollar's strength, and its movements are closely monitored by traders worldwide. Based on my analysis, I believe the next two years will bring significant challenges for the dollar, potentially leading to a heavy decline.
In my view, the DXY will struggle to hold above 120, even in the case of temporary fake breakouts or sharp rejections. This level represents a strong historical resistance zone, and any attempt to break higher is likely to face immense selling pressure. However, what’s more concerning is the potential for a deep bearish trend, with the index dropping below 95 during this period.
Several factors could contribute to this scenario. A pivot by the Federal Reserve toward more accommodative policies, slowing U.S. economic growth, and the growing global efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade could all weigh heavily on the index. Technically, the long-term charts indicate that the dollar is already facing structural resistance, and a break below key support levels could accelerate the decline.
If the DXY does drop below 95, it could trigger ripple effects across global markets, impacting currencies, commodities, and equities alike. This level represents a critical threshold that could reshape market sentiment and trading strategies.
Disclaimer:
This analysis reflects my personal opinion and is not financial advice. The markets are highly volatile, and unexpected macroeconomic or geopolitical developments could drastically alter this outlook. Always conduct your own research and manage risk carefully when trading.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments—do you see the Dollar Index heading for a crash, or do you have a different outlook? Let's discuss!
#DXY #Forex #DollarIndex #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView
DYX 4H Buying IdeaUptrend continue
Everything is on the chart
Please take Profit @161.8% Fib
Patient is the key
Goodluck
DXY Possible Daily Formation?This may just be a massive rationalization but let me know what your thoughts are please.
I feel that maybe this is a very sideways H&S, with NFP data earlier today price shot higher into a big daily resistance, thus making me feel it will reject and complete this pattern. Unless of course it continues to break ceilings, then we can give the dollar a new name. Bitcoin.
This is not an idea for marking TPs and SLs i am just curious if fellow traders could see this as a possibility.
Feedback greatly appreciated. Preferably kind feedback lol. Ive noticed trading view minds and ideas are quite aggressive and condescending at times in the replies to others ideas.
Global Markets Show Moderate OptimismGlobal markets closed the week with a tone of moderate optimism, driven by President Trump's statements at the World Economic Forum, where he advocated for an immediate reduction in interest rates and a softer approach to imposing tariffs on China. However, uncertainty regarding the trade and fiscal policies of the new U.S. administration, coupled with mixed economic data, kept investors cautious.
Stock indices record weekly gains
Major global stock markets ended the week in positive territory, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs. Optimism fueled by Trump's remarks, along with strong corporate earnings, boosted stocks. The German DAX extended its winning streak to nine consecutive days, while the French CAC 40 reached its highest level in seven months. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng posted weekly gains thanks to Beijing's support for the stock market.
The dollar weakens against stronger counterparts
The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, hitting a one-month low. The strength of the euro, British pound, and Oceanic currencies reflected uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and optimism from economic data in Europe and other regions. The Japanese yen also appreciated following the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates.
Key movements in Latin America
In Latin America, the Brazilian real appreciated to an eight-week high, supported by foreign direct investment inflows and easing inflationary pressures. The Colombian peso also strengthened, while the Mexican peso posted significant weekly gains. However, Mexico's economic activity slowed more than expected in November, raising concerns about the recovery pace of Latin America's second-largest economy.
Mixed trends in commodities
Gold approached its all-time high, driven by the weak dollar and Trump's comments on interest rates. Silver also appreciated, while copper showed operational weakness due to supply concerns. Oil recorded a weekly decline due to Trump's pressure to lower crude prices.
Economic data and monetary policy
Economic data released during the week painted a mixed picture of the global economy. Private sector activity in the Eurozone unexpectedly expanded, while German manufacturing contracted at a slower pace. In the UK, services sector activity exceeded expectations, though employment growth remained weak.
Regarding monetary policy, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and hinted at further increases. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates next week, while the Bank of England may follow suit in February. The U.S. Federal Reserve meets next week, and while rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors will closely monitor signals regarding future policy directions.
Key factors to watch in the future
Markets will closely follow the Trump administration's policies, particularly regarding international trade and fiscal policy. The trajectory of the global economy, decisions by central banks, and geopolitical tensions will also be critical factors to watch in the coming weeks.
In summary, global markets remain in a state of cautious optimism. Mixed signals from the Trump administration, economic data, and uncertainty about the future of the global economy keep investors on alert.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
DXY morning analysisTechnical analysis of DXY.
This is a bearish analysis which sees price in a wave (c) of ((B)), looking for sub-100 target at median line, above support at 89.209. Key resistance now at 110.176.
DXY short model..?Down at about 106 we believe we have early buyers who are trying to buy the 3 , 4 H time frame $$...so here's another model let's see if it's gonna play...
Patience Patience Patience...
My Analysis of the DXY ChartLooking at this chart, the DXY is moving within an ascending channel defined by the two white trendlines. Based on my analysis, there are a few key levels to watch, especially the Fibonacci retracement levels.
First, if the price starts to drop from the upper boundary of the channel, it is likely to retrace down to the 0.61 Fibonacci level. This is an important support zone, and the price might bounce back up from here.
However, if the 0.61 Fibonacci level doesn’t hold, the price could continue falling towards the 0.78 retracement level. This level is a much stronger support and could trigger a significant reversal if the price reaches it.
Finally, the lower boundary of the channel, marked by the white trendline, serves as the ultimate area of support. If the price falls this far, there’s a strong chance it will bounce back upward within the channel.
This analysis highlights the key zones where the price is likely to react and helps identify the next potential moves for the DXY
XAUUSD shortDXY-XAUUSD SMT 5min control
Taking Liquidity and balanced previous high on the chart
24.01.2025 daily journal
The dollar collects the first stage of the ABC correction to risThe dollar collects the first stage of the ABC correction to rise to the
ICT/SMC Analysis DXYRight now at Weekly OB+FVG , if today closed bearish then our structure on daily will be bearish... potentially could be retracement/consolidation in the area below ...
The DXY broke up in October and pin point nailed the 702 After the DXY broke up in october, and markets have been bleeding for almost two months (expect from the election hype in november) the DXY just hit the 702 retracemnt and turned around. Expect it to re visit the lows. IF markets are booming under this retracemnt i expect the dxy lows to hold, and reverse to the up side when markets collapse on them selfs.
DXY sell-off continuation or bounce from 107.60159 levelGiven the short-term sell-off (can turn to longer term)
on DXY, There is a higher chance of continuation to the
downside with repect to the events occurring today.
More like a bounce from 107.60159 level or a pullback
to 108.00066 level before continuing lower. Pair with
XXX/USD or USD/XXX i.e. EU,GU, U/CHF, etc.
DXY BEARISH DROP INCOMINGWhat's up chat Degen Jake Here once more with an update on Dollar Index, and my personal psychological thoughts when it comes to this pair.
I've been waiting for the dollar to do an upside liquidity grab for it to start falling in my last trading view idea I see I posted the DXY on the 2D time frame interval and it was way too long so the moves were hard to see, BUT! the Dollar ended up doing as we thought it would. If you go on the chart I had published on Jan.8 you can see how the dollar moved up taking its sell-side liquidity and then started to move down.
Here is where we find ourselves approx. 2 weeks later. We can see how the dollar has begun to shake to the downside. NOW what we are waiting for patiently is to see how the dollar will react in the current price level we see here now. Its a big Support level on the 4HR Time frame and truth-fully we would like to see the dollar after now taking these RED horizontal rays (liquidity buyside){from the 4HR and D Time Frames} To go back to the upside from here and try and take some sell side liquidity sitting on top marked by the white and yellow horizontal rays. I predict it smacking the first and MAYBE the second white horizontal rays before it continuing to shake to the downside after that.
Let's wait patiently and see what it ends up happening before we input any sells. I've drawn out what I think will happen. Now we wait for a sell opportunity and GO IN!
{VISUAL GUIDE:}
Eclipses: Green Triangles Indicating Gaps in either the Monthly time frame or the Daily time frame.
Black Lines: Represent Active Monthly liquidity.
Blue lines: Represent Active Weekly liquidity.
Yellow lines: Represents Active Daily liquidity.
White lines: Represents Active 4HR liquidity.
Green Landscape Line: Represents Trumps inauguration.
Red Landscape Line: Represents 1st Lunar Cycle, FOMC, & Possible Psyop incoming which all has negative sentiment.
DXY at Crossroads? Break in Trend Points to Dollar WeaknessUnless we see a significant rally into Friday’s close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) weekly chart suggests the cycle high may already be in. The current three-candle pattern resembles a textbook evening star, often seen at turning points. An opposite morning star signal in early December proved accurate, as did the evening star in late June last year.
This latest signal is notable, especially as it coincides with a break in the uptrend that followed Trump’s election win. Adding to the bearish case, the RSI (14) uptrend from September has been broken, and while not yet confirmed by MACD, it too appears to be in the early stage of rolling over.
Traders should watch for a potential break of support at 107.75, a level DXY has bounced off in three of the past four weeks. If that level gives way, downside targets include 106.736 and 105.44.
Although not technical, it’s worth noting the market has trimmed expectations for Fed easing this year, dropping from six cuts to fewer than two since September. This shift leaves the dollar vulnerable given how much bullish sentiment towards the US economy is already priced in.
[[flash crash]]gm,
i’m reaching out today to give you a fair warning based on a concerning cross-market chart structure. the dxy is showing strong signs of strength and looks like it’s gearing up for an upside squeeze, potentially setting the stage for a breakout to levels we haven’t seen in decades.
the implications of this move could trigger a flash crash in both the stock and crypto markets world-wide, reminiscent to that of the covid crash. this time, however, i believe the catalyst will be the combination of elevated rates, inflation, and the looming debt ceiling crisis.
don’t fear the crash,,, it will present a rare buying opportunity for those who are in tune with this wilder market. a strategic player, one who profits from the collapse of this fragile economy, will thrive in these conditions.
---
if my forecast is correct, we’ll see the TVC:DXY explode up to 127,,,
while CRYPTOCAP:BTC would lose roughly half of its current value.
🌙
Increase in U.S. Unemployment ClaimsThe recent data on initial unemployment claims in the United States introduces a note of caution amid an economic outlook that, until recently, appeared robust. Contrary to the narrative of U.S. economic exceptionalism that dominated the first half of January, initial unemployment claims have risen for the second consecutive week, with continuing claims reaching their highest level since November 2021. This increase raises questions about the relative strength of the labor market presented by the December NFP report and its potential impact on the country’s economic trajectory.
Data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that initial claims increased by 6,000, reaching 223,000 for the week ending January 18, slightly exceeding market expectations of 220,000. Beyond the weekly figure, the standout data point is the rise in continuing claims, which climbed to 1,899,000, marking the highest level in over two years. This increase suggests that unemployed workers are taking longer to find new job opportunities, an indicator warranting close monitoring.
This rise in continuing claims is a figure that deserves attention. Prolonged periods of unemployment could negatively affect consumer spending and confidence.
While this data tempers the optimism generated by the strong December NFP report, it’s crucial to place it within a global context. The U.S. economy, compared to other developed economies, still shows a relatively strong performance. However, this uptick in unemployment claims dampens the narrative of economic exceptionalism.
In the realm of monetary policy, these data points are unlikely to significantly influence the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in its upcoming meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. Similarly, market expectations for 2025 rate cuts remain centered on the second half of the year, with a forecast of a single 25 basis point cut.
The U.S. dollar experienced slight additional downward pressure following the release of this data, adding to the pressures from signs of easing inflation and the absence of targeted tariff measures at the start of the Trump 2.0 administration. The DXY index registered a slight decline of 0.05%.
Market attention will now turn to next week’s FOMC meeting and, in particular, to Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks. Additionally, uncertainty persists over the potential implementation of punitive tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, a measure that could have significant implications for trade and the economy.
While it is premature to suggest a trend reversal, this data serves as a reminder of the importance of maintaining constant vigilance over labor market developments and their broader economic impact.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
USDIndex is under pressureThe US dollar index broke out of a 462-day-old wedge pattern in November 2024, targeting 111.93. After triggering the pattern, it retested the breakout and resumed its upward movement. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the price stays above 105.08.
However, in the short term, traders are watching the 107.22 level, which aligns with the December 20th low. As long as the price holds above this level, the short-term uptrend remains intact, and the index could approach 109 by the end of next week. However, a break below 107.22 could push the price down to 106.35, or even 106.
What’s your view on the dollar index?
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DXY reversal patternBase on the weekly, dxy reach its peak, it is trying to complete a fair value gap. The confirmation of reversal is double top which is yet to be formed at this point. But watchout for your entry as soon as double top and change in market structure is formed.
DXY Faces Selling Pressure Despite Ongoing Bullish TrendDXY Faces Selling Pressure Despite Ongoing Bullish Trend
The DXY Index continues to experience slight selling pressure, even though the bullish trend remains intact.
The US Dollar (USD) saw a modest rebound following reports that President Trump is considering a 10% tariff on China as a response to fentanyl shipments, effective February 1. Trump stated, "We're discussing a 10% tariff on China due to their fentanyl exports to Mexico and Canada."
Tariff threats and their eventual implementation are likely to impact market sentiment, giving the USD a potential boost. However, any delays in tariff announcements will provide temporary relief for risk assets and might prompt unwinding of long USD positions.
Technical Analysis: In our previous analysis, we observed that the DXY Index broke out of its channel and hit one of the targets. Given the uncertainty surrounding tariff decisions, DXY is hesitant to take a definitive direction before February 1. Post that date, clarity on the USD's outlook may emerge, potentially leading to a new bearish correction.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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