Weekly Outlook Sep 30 - Oct 4 $DXYTVC:DXY might have a short term relief rally this week before continuing its march to lower lows. Factors contributing to weakness can be economic data and/or FED being more dovish than expected
USXUSD trade ideas
DXY to 100?! - Updated: Better than Expected PMI, Still Bearishintraday price action in DXY started off bearish with a series of lower lows and lower highs and the momentum continued until new york session.
U.S. released a better than expected PMI report and the market rallied 70 points!
if DXY breaks 101.000 the bearish bias is invalidated
gameplan: possible EU re-entry
Navigating the Downtrend: DXY’s Critical Battle Within the rangeHey Traders,
The U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) is currently trading in a downward trend channel, showing bearish momentum. However, the index is approaching critical levels where a potential breakout could lead to a shift in market sentiment. Let's take a closer look at the technical landscape and identify key levels to watch for both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Current Market Conditions:
Trend: The DXY is trading in a well-defined descending channel, with lower highs and lower lows confirming the bearish trend.
Resistance Levels: The index is nearing a crucial resistance zone at 101.526, which also aligns with the upper boundary of the descending channel. This level will be critical to watch for potential rejections or breakouts.
Support Levels: On the downside, immediate support lies at 100.762, followed by further support at 100.550 and 100.175. These levels may provide potential buying interest if the downtrend continues.
Candlestick Patterns: Currently, the price action is showing hesitation as it approaches the upper boundary of the channel, signaling indecision in the market.
Fundamental Analysis/Outlook:
The strength of the U.S. dollar has been impacted by several factors, including recent Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation reports, and mixed economic data from the U.S. While Treasury yields have been fluctuating, any changes in market sentiment around future rate hikes could provide directional cues for the DXY.
Additionally, movements in global risk sentiment, particularly related to major economic events, could influence the dollar's trajectory. With uncertainties looming, traders should stay vigilant for news around U.S. GDP reports, employment data, and other key macroeconomic indicators.
Targets:
Upside Target: If the DXY breaks above the resistance zone at 101.526, the next key target would be 101.751, which marks a significant resistance level.
Downside Target: In case of a bearish continuation, traders should watch for a move towards 100.550, with the possibility of reaching the lower support at 100.175.
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss: A recommended stop-loss level for a long position would be slightly below the 100.550 support level, around 100.400, to protect against further downside movement.
Position Sizing: Given the volatile nature of the market and the proximity to key levels, consider adjusting your position size accordingly to manage risk effectively.
Conclusion:
DXY is at a pivotal juncture within its descending channel/range. A breakout above the 101.526 resistance could signal a potential reversal, while a rejection at this level may lead to a continuation of the downtrend. Traders should closely monitor key levels, as the next moves will likely set the tone for the index in the coming sessions.
Sign-Off:
"Success is not final, failure is not fatal: It is the courage to continue that counts."
I would love to hear your thoughts in the comment section, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Thank you, and profitable trading to you all!
DXY POSSIBLE SELL OPPORTUNITY!!!Price just reached a resistance level. Price may drop from the current price. A sell opportunity is envisaged as buyers gets exhausted at the resistance level.
DXY POSSIBLE SELL OPPORTUNITY!!!Price just reached a resistance level. Price may drop from the current price. A sell opportunity is envisaged as buyers gets exhausted at the resistance level.
Dollar Index in an ending structureCall it diagonal, call it squeeze or whatever other name you want to call it, the dollar index is now quite clearly in an ending structure.
Will it break? Most likely yes, this week it should break out.
dxy is getting beairsh again 💀 boost and follow for more❤️🔥 a recent fake out breakout past resistance zone, now sitting at a trend support.. I wont be surprised to see it slice through trend support and head down to 97-100 targets in the next few weeks or so 🎯
Market News Report - 29 September 2024Due to an unsurprising rate hold, the Aussie was among the top-performing currencies in the major forex markets. Meanwhile, the dollar fell against AUD and several other currencies as the recent Fed cut continues to downplay the greenback.
Have any fundamental outlooks changed for this week compared to our last report? Let's find out.
Market Overview
Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies.
US dollar (USD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
Unsurprisingly, the Fed's recent historic 50 basis points (bps) rate cut is still a hot topic, keeping the bearish bias firmly in place. The central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year.
In line with this sentiment, the Fed also revised 'dots' lower, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment higher.
Negative expected jobs and ISM services data coming this week will add further to the bearish pressure.
Despite these fundamentals, the DXY has yet to break the support area at 100.617, instead ranging around this level for quite a while now. So, be mindful of a potential technically-driven retracement.
Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Markets anticipate rate cuts before the year ends, with the Fed keen to harness a soft landing. Also, any data on weakened jobs would be another bearish driver for the dollar.
However, any potential strength in upcoming GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and jobs would make rate cuts less urgent, allowing for a USD retracement.
Euro (EUR)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
As usual, the STIR (short-term interest markets) were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate a few weeks ago. While 'being mum' about forward guidance, they revised core inflation projections higher.
Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate (STIR) markets have indicated a 93% chance of a rate cut in October.
Meanwhile, the chart tells a slightly different story. After recently breaking a major resistance, the next target is 1.12757. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.07774.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
After a long period, we have changed the long-term bias to 'bearish' (from 'weak bearish'). The ECB has yet to commit to a specific future path with the interest rate for some time.
Due to lingering concerns over services inflation, a rate cut in October has become more likely than before. There is a 7% chance (down from 67% of a hold (according to STIR markets). All of this accents the bearish bias.
British pound (GBP)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its meeting. Still, the language indicates that they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Early last week, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates.
As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Expect any shocks in inflation (or other data like labour) to send the pound lower.
Like the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. However, it is more bullish. We must go onto the weekly chart to see the next resistance target at (1.34825).
On the other hand, the nearest key support is far away at 1.26156.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, expect any weak CPI, labour, and GDP data to back up the bearish bias. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief.
Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point.
Japanese yen (JPY)
Short-term outlook: bullish.
The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year.
Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation. All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike.
USD/JPY has long been bearish, recently surpassing (but not breaking with confidence) the major resistance at 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive
Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Short-term outlook: weak bullish.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 24 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement.
The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes, especially with declining iron ore prices from the country’s steelmakers. As always, it depends on drops or rises in economic data like GDP, inflation and labour.
The Aussie market has risen noticeably of late, having exceeded the recent resistance level at 0.68711. However, as it has yet to break the level confidently, we need to see how it behaves near the latter.
Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
The RBA has certainly changed their tune from hawkish to slightly hawkish/dovish. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area.
However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, so it is exposed to economic growth in other countries.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.'
Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) also revised cash rate projections lower, which signals a dovish move. The markets see a 70% chance of an 0.5% rate cut next month.
The Kiwi has recently breached a major resistance at 0.62220. While the next target is at 0.63696 (where it is very close to hitting), the latter area is still worth considering.
Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it is unlikely to test soon.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.'
However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. So, traders should be data-dependent.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently dropped the interest rate to 4.25%, as anticipated by the markets for some time. Further cuts in the next few meetings are on the cards (with a 57% chance of a 50bps cut next month), with the long-term target being 3%.
Unemployment, weak economic growth, and mortgage stress are the key drivers for this dovishness.
The CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness. It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. Governor Macklem himself stated a while ago that it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Any big misses in the upcoming data for GBP, inflation, and GDP will probably boost the chance of a rate cut next month.
Also, mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it.
Expect encouraging oil prices, along with general economic data improvement, to save the Canadian dollar's blushes.
Swiss franc (CHF)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) this past week. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters.
Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions, such as a worsening Middle East crisis.
We are seeing a clear range on USD/CHF in a strong bear move. So, let's see which side the market is going to incline more towards going forward (although it looks more south than north).
The major support level is closer at (0.83326), while the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc.
On the flip side, 'safe haven flows' and geopolitical risks can be positively supportive for the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates.
Conclusion
We have kept our fundamental outlooks the same, except for the long-term outlook on the euro. Anyone trading the latter in the coming weeks should bear this in mind. Besides the US-related news, this week isn't filled with high-impact economic events, meaning less volatility.
Still, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
DXY Pair : DXY Index
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
Resistance Level
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Fibonacci Level - 38.20 / 50.00
DXY: Move Down Expected! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 100.246
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY doing Cycle Wave 2, now inside the Wave C about to break SupHello everyone,
In this scenario the DXY has finished the Wave Cycle Wave 1, with 5 Waves (Ending in September 2022), and now it is doing the Wave 2.
Inside the Wave 2, we encounter ourselves inside the Wave C already.
The Wave C is about to break the 100 support area, and targeting at least 92 target.
The 92 target is the minimum move that it needs to perform, since it will be the same lenght as the Wave A.
Knowing this, we expect to see other Assets rise as the Dólar falls in the upcoming months
DXY doing Cycle Wave 2, now inside the Wave C about to break SupHello everyone,
In this scenario the DXY has finished the Wave Cycle Wave 1, with 5 Waves (Ending in September 2022), and now it is doing the Wave 2.
Inside the Wave 2, we encounter ourselves inside the Wave C already.
The Wave C is about to break the 100 support area, and targeting at least 92 target.
The 92 target is the minimum move that it needs to perform, since it will be the same lenght as the Wave A.
Knowing this, we expect to see other Assets rise as the Dólar falls in the upcoming months
Continued fall of the dollar index DXY. H4 30.09.2024Continued fall of the dollar index DXY
The dollar index is moving downwards without changes. There was an attempt to trade, above which it was not allowed to consolidate and eventually fell. I showed this in the last analysis and now I am aiming at the support levels around 99.20. Perhaps they will just make a false update of the low and come back, it is not known in advance, but at the moment we are trading near the visible support and so far without an upward reaction. Therefore, 99.20 is the next strongest level in recent years and it is ideal to test it before a reversal.
TVC:DXY
DeGRAM | DXY decline from the trend lineDXY is moving in a descending channel between trend lines.
The descending structure is not broken.
The price is below the correction level.
The chart is moving between trend lines and has already reached the upper one.
We expect the decline to continue.
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DeGRAM | DXY closed the gapDXY is moving in a descending channel between trend lines.
The chart maintains a downward structure.
After the decline from the dynamic resistance, the price formed a gap, which it successfully closed during the rebound after reaching the support level.
We expect the decline to continue after the retest of the trend line.
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Levels discussed 30th September 30th September
DXY: Price could retrace from 100.40 to 100.55 and possibly retest bearish trendline. But overall downtrend, with support at 100.20
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6345 SL 20 TP 45
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6955 SL 20 TP 50
GBPUSD: Sell 1.3355 SL 20 TP 50
EURUSD: Buy 1.1175 SL 20 TP 40
USDJPY: Sell 141.50 SL 50 TP 130
USDCHF: Buy at 0.8440 SL 20 TP 70
USDCAD: Buy 1.3545 SL 20 TP 50
Gold: Could consolidate between 2640-2652 range, If broken lower, could trade down to 2616.
Possibility of uptrend It is expected that the continuation of the downward trend will be formed up to the indicated support levels. Then, according to the behavior of the index, there will be a possibility of changing the trend
DXYDXY.
Will DXY get bids from buyers ?
As the price is at strong support level and bullish divergence indicating the buyers may attack this zone. If this happens and buyers start buying from here then the next target could be 101.500 followed by 102.500.
What you guys think of this idea?
Weekly Technical Analysis for Major Currency Pairs, Commodities,
Weekly Analysis of Gold, Currencies, and Oil Opportunities from September 30 to October 4, 2024
Introduction:
Greetings, this is Mohamed Qais Abdulghani, financial markets expert,
In this important weekly analysis, we present a comprehensive technical and economic analysis of the major currency pairs, commodities, and indices for the period from September 30 to October 4, 2024. We highlight significant investment opportunities in global markets, including the US dollar, gold, oil, and indices. This article not only provides a thorough outlook of the markets but also reveals golden opportunities that should be seized amid the major news releases this week. We invite you to share your comments and opinions.
At the end of the previous week, we saw an acceleration of geopolitical events and the return of uncertainty, which affected the movement of gold and markets in general. We will provide a comprehensive technical and economic analysis of the markets during this period.
1. Geopolitical Events and Market Analysis
Geopolitical events have caused an increase in the fear index, preventing gold from resuming its expected corrections. Markets remain uncertain about the direction of gold and the US dollar, putting additional pressure on price movements. This week, we will focus on key economic data that will be released and their impact on the market, such as the GDP in England, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone, and the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
2. Important Economic Data
1. Monday: GDP in England, CPI in the Eurozone, and Jerome Powell’s speech.
2. Tuesday: CPI for the Eurozone and US Manufacturing PMI.
3. Wednesday: Non-Farm Private Sector Employment (ADP) and US Crude Oil Inventory.
4. Thursday: US Unemployment Claims and Services PMI.
5. Friday: Non-Farm Payroll, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate.
3. Technical Analysis of Major Currency Pairs
1. EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar): If prices stabilize above 1.1000, we may see a rise towards 1.1350 and 1.1550 on a weekly basis.
2. GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar): Breaking the 1.33540 level could pull the pair down towards 1.32500 and 1.31700.
3. USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen): Stability below 144 could lead to a drop towards 140 and 136, extending to 132.
4. USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc): A break below 0.8400 may lead to a drop towards 0.8300 and 0.8200.
5. AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar): Staying above 0.6840 supports the positive trend towards 0.6920.
6. NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar): Continuing to trade above 0.6300 may push the pair towards 0.6400 and 0.6500.
7. USD/CAD (US Dollar/Canadian Dollar): Pressure continues with a potential drop towards 1.3400 unless prices rise above 1.3550.
8. GBP/JPY (British Pound/Japanese Yen): Breaking the 188.00 level may drag the pair towards 182.00 and 175.00.
9. EUR/JPY (Euro/Japanese Yen): A break below 158.00 may lead to a drop towards 155.00 and 151.00.
10. EUR/GBP (Euro/British Pound): Breaking the 0.8300 level may bring the pair back towards 0.8060 and 0.8200.
11. USD/TRY (US Dollar/Turkish Lira): Attempts to improve the lira’s position may continue, but falling below 34.00 lira could lead to further pressure.
4. Technical Analysis of Commodities and Indices
1. Gold (XAU/USD): If prices remain below 2,680 dollars, corrections may continue towards 2,640 dollars and 2,600 dollars. If 2,640 dollars are broken, gold may continue to correct towards 2,560 dollars.
2. Crude Oil (WTI): If oil breaks the 68-dollar level, we may see a rise towards 71 and 74 dollars.
3. Silver (XAG/USD): A decline below 32.50 dollars may push prices towards 30.50 and 29.00 dollars.
4. Natural Gas (NG): Staying above 3.00 dollars supports an upward trend towards 3.50 and 4.00 dollars.
5. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): A break below 42,250 may lead to corrections towards 41,600 and 40,800.
6. S&P 500: Failing to break 5,700 may lead to corrections towards 5,400.
7. NASDAQ: Failure to break 20,400 may lead to a decline towards 19,400.
8. Russell 2000: Breaking 2,225 may lead to a rise towards 2,320 and 2,400.
9. FTSE 100: Stability above 8,200 supports the positive trend towards 8,400.
10. DAX: Stability above 19,200 supports the upward trend towards 20,400.
11. CAC 40: Stability above 7,600 supports optimism and indicates a possible rise towards 8,000 and 8,400.
12. Nikkei 225: Breaking the 37,000 level may lead to a series of losses towards 35,000 and 33,000 on a weekly basis.
5. Cryptocurrency Market Analysis
1. Bitcoin (BTC/USD): If prices stabilize above 65,000 dollars, we may see a rise towards 69,000 and 72,000 dollars. A break below this level could negate the bullish scenario.
2. Ethereum (ETH/USD): Failure to break 2,700 dollars may lead to a decline towards 2,300 dollars. It needs to break this level to achieve future gains.
3. Ripple (XRP/USD): Stability above 0.55 dollars supports a bullish trend towards 0.65 dollars, with the potential to rise towards 0.80 dollars if the positive trend continues.
6. Recommendations and Outlook
Markets remain under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and important economic data. We advise traders to carefully monitor support and resistance levels, especially in gold, oil, and major currencies. Opportunities remain available in the event of bearish corrections that provide good entry points.
Conclusion
Thank you for following this analysis, and we invite you to engage with us by sharing your questions and comments.
This analysis has been prepared by Mohammad Qais Abdulghani, a financial market expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is recommended to follow economic developments for well-informed decisions.
[DXY] Re-entering effort to stay in the zoneTVC:DXY spent last couple of days trying to keep its head above the lower channel boundary, no success so far. Still bearish for now.
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 29th—> Oct 4th)**Looking Ahead:**
Next week will feature several key events and data releases:
- **U.S. Jobs Report**
- **U.S. PMI Surveys**
- **Fed Chair Powell Speech**
- **Earnings Reports:** Nike ( NYSE:NKE ), Carnival ( NYSE:CCL ), Levi Strauss & Co. ( NYSE:LEVI ), Constellation Brands ( NYSE:STZ )
- **Tesla Q3 Deliveries ( NASDAQ:TSLA )**
As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
