USXUSD trade ideas
"USD Poised for a Comeback as DXY Gains Momentum"The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) may establish a range-bound trading pattern, indicating a potential resurgence in USD strength.
Thank you.
Possibility of uptrend It is expected that a trend change will be formed in the current support range and we will witness the beginning of an upward trend. Then, according to the behavior of the index in the specified resistance range, possible scenarios have been specified
DXY WEEKLY BIASAs we patiently wait for prices to commit to us before we commit to prices we will stay on our hands and make sure we wait for our set of rules and follow them, we will only be looking at longs on the higher timeframe ad shorts on the lower timeframe, stay tuned for more updates. do well to like share and follow.
Levels discussed on Livestream 23rd September
DXY: Currently at 101, could retest bearish trendline and reject to trade down to 100.60. If trendline broken, needs to break above 101.40 for further upside to 101.80
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6195 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6775 SL 20 TP 65
GBPUSD: Sell 1.3245 SL 30 TP 70
EURUSD: Buy 1.1090 SL 25 TP 90
USDJPY: Sell 143 SL 35 TP 95
USDCHF: Sell 0.8540 SL 30 TP 105
USDCAD: Do Nothing
Gold: Currently retracing, look for possible reaction at 2600, esp for a rebound.
Dollar Index (ICE) (READ DESCRIPTION)Dollar Index (ICE) Intraday Analysis: Potential Decline of 1620 - 3620 Pips
Pivot Point: 101.0000
Primary Strategy (Our Preference):
Entry Point: Consider initiating short positions below the pivot level of 101.0000.
Target Levels: The first downside target is set at 100.6000, with an extension towards 100.4000 if bearish momentum continues.
Alternative Scenario:
Upside Risk: If the price rises above 101.0000, expect potential targets at 101.2500 and 101.4500.
Technical Outlook:
Market Dynamics: As long as the resistance at 101.0000 holds, the risk of a decline below 100.6000 remains significant. Caution is advised, as market conditions can change rapidly.
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 15h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 101.074.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 102.576 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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DXY continuation move expected**Monthly Chart**
Last month's DXY candle closed as bearish after a strong push down breaking the previous monthly range. This month's candle (which is still active) went lower and took out the low of Dec 2023. Currently, it is testing the low of July 2023 and MC (OB) area.
**Weekly Chart**
Last week, the candle closed as a bearish indecision candle after taking out the liquidity below the 26th of December 2023. DXY is currently in the demand zone and testing weekly Manipulation candles for July 2023.
**Daily Chart**
DXY overall trend is still bearish. The next target is around 99.50 which is the low of July 2023. I would like to see DXY continue its move lower to at least break the low of July 2023 before it moves higher.
DxyDxy Up follow Diamond pattern and 2 bottoms pattern, but I dont trade Dxy. I trade Gold. Dxy Up so Gold down.
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 22th—> Sept 27th)**Weekly Market Recap 🌐**
Hello Investors! 🌟 This week, the S&P 500 broke out to new all-time highs as the Fed delivered a more aggressive rate cut than some expected. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the markets this week. 📈
**Market Overview:**
Heading into the week, the S&P 500 was already approaching fresh all-time highs, with debates intensifying over whether the Fed would cut rates by 25 or 50 bps at Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The US dollar remained weak, while interest rates were largely on hold. Positive US economic data leading up to the decision supported market optimism: September Empire manufacturing surged alongside a rebound in new orders, retail sales exceeded expectations, and housing starts reached their highest level since February, consistent with a 3% GDP growth rate. However, economic data from China and Germany remained soft, prompting renewed speculation about potential stimulus measures, particularly as the German ZEW survey hit its lowest level since May 2020. Additionally, WTI crude held steady near $70/barrel following a well-coordinated Israeli operation against Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon, raising concerns about escalating conflict.
On Wednesday, the Fed opted for a 50 bps rate cut, citing recent data points, including payroll revisions and the Beige Book. The updated dot plot projections indicated that most Fed members now anticipate 100 bps of cuts for both 2024 and 2025. Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the move was intended to "not fall behind" the curve and to adjust policy in line with where the economy is headed. This bold move drew some criticism but was largely welcomed by investors as a sign of the Fed's commitment to a more neutral monetary policy. The S&P 500 broke out to a new all-time high above 5,700, as investors celebrated the clear path to a neutral stance. By the end of the week, modest profit-taking emerged during options expiration, but the market closed strong. The Dow gained 1.6%, the S&P rose 1.4%, and the Nasdaq added 1.5% for the week.
**Stock Market Performance:**
- 📈 S&P 500: Up by 1.4%
- 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 1.6%
- 📈 NASDAQ: Up by 1.5%
**Economic Indicators:**
- **US Economic Data:** Positive signals included strong Empire manufacturing, retail sales exceeding expectations, and housing starts reaching their highest level since February.
- **FOMC Rate Cut:** The Fed delivered a 50 bps cut, with updated dot plot projections indicating an expectation for 100 bps of cuts in both 2024 and 2025.
- **Yield Curve:** The US yield curve steepened significantly following the Fed's decision.
- **Global Economic Data:** Weak data out of China and Germany led to speculation about potential government stimulus measures.
- **WTI Crude:** Held near $70/barrel amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
**Corporate News:**
- **Apple:** Started the week under pressure due to reports of underwhelming new iPhone orders.
- **Amazon:** CEO Andy Jassy announced that staff would be required to return to the office for a traditional 5-day workweek in 2025.
- **Boeing:** Announced plans to conserve cash, including a hiring freeze and furloughs, while its machinists continued their strike.
- **Darden Restaurants & General Mills:** Both reported results, noting that a challenging macroeconomic environment remains a headwind.
- **Mercedes Benz & Skechers:** Warned that deteriorating conditions in China were worse than anticipated, requiring a reset of short-term expectations.
- **Nike:** Announced that veteran Elliott Hill will return as President/CEO after John Donahoe steps down next month.
- **FedEx:** Weighed down the transport sector on Friday after missing Q1 estimates and cutting its FY outlook, citing a shift away from US domestic priority package business.
- **Constellation Energy:** Reached an agreement to provide power from a restored Three Mile Island nuclear facility to Microsoft, boosting power generation and nuclear-related stocks.
**Looking Ahead:**
Next week will feature several key events:
- **Fed Chair Powell Speech**
- **U.S. PCE Inflation**
- **U.S. Housing Data**
- **U.S. Flash PMI Surveys**
- **Earnings Reports:** Costco ( NASDAQ:COST ), Micron Technology ( NASDAQ:MU ), and KB Home ( NYSE:KBH )
As we move forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
Must-Watch Events in U.S. Politics This Week With six weeks until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 5 points, 49% to 44%, according to a new NBC poll. Harris' favorability has surged 16 points since July, the largest increase for any candidate since George W. Bush after 9/11.
Harris is set to unveil new economic proposals on Thursday, expanding her vision for an “opportunity economy.” Meanwhile, Trump is now urging early and mail-in voting, despite previously blaming it for election fraud.
As for a second debate, Harris has accepted an invitation for October 23, but Trump seems reluctant after their first encounter.
Additionally, House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a stopgap funding bill to prevent a government shutdown before the Sept. 30 deadline, with a vote expected on Wednesday.
DXY and EURUSDMy views on DXY and EURUSD.
Dxy Shorts
EURUSD buys.
Please let me know what you think about this. Cheers and happy trading
DXYWe looking for the dollar to go on a stronger gain as the market is respecting the support zone resulting in the market have gains to the upside for a stronger dollar lastly the market is respecting the primary zone which will likely to produce buying opportunities|1H TIMEFRAME
i NEUTRAL ON DXY FOR NOW Dear Trader,
It is usually good to pay attention to what price action is at any point in time. I am personally neutral about the movement of DXY but I will be waiting to see a "Change of Character" (CHoCH) on the weekly chart to confirm bullish in the medium term whilst I wait to see DXY break Structure to the Upside.
There is a very high probability that after a few weeks of downside for the US Index, pull-back may be inevitable and the liquidation of the previous week's low that we saw as shown on my chart with the violation of the previous week's low, we may see a bit of retracement/pull back.
I will remain neutral for now until I see a convincing CHoCH to the upside to confirm a bullish reversal at least to the bearish breaker block that is in confluence with the FVG.
Please pay attention to details and apply proper risk management to your trading.
DXY TRADE SETUPIndex; DXY
✔ Classic Bearish formation
DXY is holding continuous down Trend so after market retracement I can take sell entry . If your analysis matches it take a trade otherwise skip the trade.
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DXY View!!U.S. STOCKS PAST THEIR FED TIME: INDEXES POST WEEKLY GAINS
U.S. stocks began Friday's session with a modest move downward, and they appeared content to loiter there for the entirety of the session.
But the three main U.S. equity indexes pared their losses in the afternoon, with the Dow
DJI
eking out a nominal gain and nabbing another record closing high.
US DOLLAR TASharing a us dollar chart here
if we lose 100$ and test it as resistance the next target would be the bottom of the range ( 89 dollars)
DXY Pair : DXY Index
Description :
Resistance Level
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Double Bottom Pattern as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
DXY NEXT WEEK VIEW
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair,
let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions,
the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be
satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watch list and see if
the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
Dear Traders,
If you like this idea, do not forget to support it with a like and follow.
PLZ! LIKE COMMAND AND SUBSCRIBE
Watch Out For DOLLAR Reversals I expect the dollar to complete its correction by month's end so prepare for reversals on pairs correlating with it. (GBPUSD, EURUSD & XAUUSD)
Weekly Technical Analysis for Major Currency Pairs, Commodities,Weekly Technical Analysis for Major Currency Pairs, Commodities, and Indices for the Period from September 23 to September 27, 2024
Introduction :
Greetings, this is Mohamed Qais Abdulghani, financial markets expert, presenting the weekly technical analysis for the most important currency pairs, commodities, and indices for the current week. In this analysis, we will review the key global economic events that will impact the financial markets, followed by a comprehensive technical analysis of the major currency pairs, commodities, and indices.
Major Economic Events for the Week:
• Monday, September 23:
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for both the manufacturing and services sectors will be released. The forecast indicates continued growth in the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors, signaling that the Federal Reserve has succeeded in controlling inflation. If the results are significantly stronger than expected, it could support the U.S. dollar and increase correctional pressures on gold. However, if the data is weaker than expected, gold prices may rise due to economic concerns.
• Tuesday, September 24:
The Consumer Confidence Index will be released, which is a crucial indicator of consumer confidence in the U.S. economy. Higher confidence could strengthen the dollar and press down on gold prices, while negative data may drive demand for gold as a safe haven due to growing fears of recession.
• Wednesday, September 25:
The New Home Sales report and Crude Oil Inventory report will be released. If new home sales improve, it may support the dollar and negatively affect gold. On the other hand, a sudden increase in oil inventories could put pressure on oil prices.
• Thursday, September 26:
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and Unemployment Claims report will be released. If the data shows stronger-than-expected growth, it may boost the dollar and pressure gold. An increase in jobless claims could weaken the dollar.
• Friday, September 27:
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, will be released. If the index shows a decline in inflation, it may boost gold prices due to a weakening dollar.
Technical Analysis:
Currency Pairs:
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
The U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure, and if it breaks the 100.500 level, we could see a decline to 99 and 97. The dollar will only recover if it exceeds the 102 level.
EUR/USD:
The pair is trying to resume its upward trend, and if it breaks the 1.12 level, we could see a rise towards 1.13 and 1.15. If the breakout fails, the pair may enter a corrective downtrend.
GBP/USD:
The pair remains in a positive scenario, and if it exceeds the 1.3054 level, we may see a rise towards 1.4 and 1.5. Failure to break this level could lead to a downward correction.
USD/JPY:
If the pair breaks the 144 yen level, we could see a rise towards 148 and 152. Failure to break this level will keep the pair under selling pressure.
GBP/JPY:
The pair, known as “The Beast,” is regaining some of its gains. Stability above the 190 yen level supports an upward move towards 195 and 200 yen. Failure to maintain this level could lead to a drop towards 184 yen.
USD/CHF:
The pair remains under pressure, and failure to break the 0.58100 level could see a decline towards 0.8400 and 0.8300.
AUD/USD:
If the pair fails to break the 0.68400 level, it may enter a downward correction towards 0.67500.
NZD/USD:
The pair is trading positively, and stability above 0.61850 supports an upward move towards 0.63 and 0.64.
USD/CAD:
The pair remains under pressure, and stability below the 1.3600 level could target 1.3500 and 1.3400.
EUR/JPY:
The pair is trying to regain positive momentum, and if it breaks the 162 yen level, we could see a rise towards 166 and 170 yen.
EUR/GBP:
The pair is nearing a key support level at 0.80750, and breaking it could enter the pair into a downward trend targeting 0.80200 and 0.79700.
USD/TRY:
Ongoing trading above the 34 lira level supports an upward trend, and we could see a rise towards 34.50 and 35.00. Failure to hold above 34 lira may lead to slight corrections.
Commodities:
Gold (XAU/USD):
Gold is achieving strong gains due to economic and geopolitical developments. If it breaks the 2615 level, we may see a rise towards 2650 and 2690. Failure to break may lead to corrections towards 2590.
Crude Oil (WTI):
Oil is trading around the 71 level, and if it breaks this level, we may see a rise towards 74 and 78.
Silver (XAG/USD):
Stability above the 30.50 level supports an upward move towards 32 and 33.50. Failure to maintain this level could lead to declines.
Natural Gas (NG):
Stability above the 2.20 level supports an upward move towards 3 and 3.40.
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC/USD):
Bitcoin is maintaining its gains, and if it stays above the 60,000 level, we could see a rise towards 65,000, with potential targets at 72,000 and 80,000. Failure to maintain this level could push prices back below 60,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD):
Ethereum is attempting to resume its gains. If it breaks the 2700 level, we may see a rise towards 3000 and 3300.
Ripple (XRP/USD):
Stability above the 0.55 level supports an upward move towards 0.65 and 0.80. Failure to maintain this level could lead to declines below 0.55.
Indices:
Dow Jones (DJIA):
If the index breaks the 42,250 level, we could see a rise towards 43,440. Failure to achieve this could return the index to support levels around 41,600.
S&P 500 (SPX):
The index is approaching a critical support level at 5700. A break below this level could enter the index into a correction targeting 5550, while holding above 5700 could push the index towards 5850 and 6000.
Nasdaq (NASDAQ):
Stability above the 19,250 level supports an upward move towards 20,000 and 21,500. Failure to hold this level may lead to minor corrections towards 19,000.
Russell (Russell 2000):
The index is approaching a key support level at 2225. Breaking this level could lead the index towards 2160 and 2090 in the coming trades. Holding above this level could support the upward trend once again.
FTSE 100 (FTSE):
A break below the 8200 level could return the index to bearish pressures towards 8050 and 7900. Stability above this level may return the index to an upward move targeting 8400 and 8600.
DAX (DAX):
Falling below the 18,800 level could lead to downward corrections towards 18,217 and 17,400. Returning above this level may push the index towards a new upward wave.
CAC (CAC):
Stability below the 7600 level could enter the index into a bearish wave targeting 7200 and lower. A return above 7600 may resume the positive trend.
Nikkei (Nikkei):
Stability above the 37,000 level supports an upward move towards 39,000 and 41,000. Failure to maintain this level may lead to minor corrections towards 36,500.
Conclusion:
Thank you for watching, and I invite you to interact with us by asking your questions about the financial markets. Don’t forget to like the video and subscribe for more updates.
This analysis was prepared by Muhammad Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and we recommend keeping up with economic updates to make informed decisions.
DXY 1D STRUCTURE Here is the daily structure for the DXY, There is a minor liquidity resting below and there is an OB present which broke structure that led to the formation of the huge liquidity resting above, prices will be watched closely and we will trade what we see not what we think will happen when the market opens we are just charting using strong order flow and thinking outside the box.
DXY STRUCTUREHi, guys it has been a while since I showed you guys the order flow of the market, We will be using DXY to correlate with other pairs such as EU, GU, AU, and NZD which correlates negatively with the DXY, so this is the weekly timeframe, there is a wide range of liquidity resting above that prices will have to clear which will engineer prices to the 1WEEK OB. I will break the trade down to the 15 MIN timeframe, stay tuned.
