DXY More downside? DXY still looks strongly bearish. Expect it to return to 107.000 and continue downside movement.
Target next low at 105.420.
_______________________________TIMEFRAME : H4
ath_trades
USXUSD trade ideas
DEMAND SET UP .. dxy.. the inverse of eurusd. gbpusd. etc..we Bullish NOW, WE NEED PRICE BACK TO THis demand area on h1.. then we buy ..
when dxy is back up, eurusd returns bearish
DXY Weekly BiasMy bias for this index is bearish and the price might target the Sellside Liquidity at 105.4. My Optimum Trade Entry would be around the 107.28 Zone.
DXY - Bearish.Similar thesis to my NASDAQ analysis, with the DXY in a current bear trend, with key levels unmitigated below, and very close to current price action. Overall, expecting a decline in the price of the DXY over the next weeks sessions, mainly to hunt liquidity below to then continue the monthly Bullish bias and trend.
Align it with the current US economic proceedings, and a declining dollar makes sense for a few more weeks until thing calm down with tariffs etc. etc.
Expecting assets with a positive correlation to the dollar to also correlate any bearish moves in the DXY, with inverse assets such as gold benefitting.
Mahalo.
Trade Idea for U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Feb 19, 2025📌 Current Market Context
DXY is trading at 107.023 , slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (106.344).
This level is a key golden ratio support, where strong reversals often happen.
The uptrend from Sept 2024 suggests that bulls are still in control unless this retracement turns into a full reversal.
📈 Bullish Trade Idea (Buy Setup)
✅ Entry: Look for bullish price action (rejection wicks, engulfing candles, or a strong bounce) near 106.344 - 106.500 .
🎯 Targets:
Target 1 : 108.035 (78.6% Fib)
Target 2 : 110.189 (previous high)
📍 Stop-Loss: Below 105.800 (just under 61.8% retracement to avoid stop hunts).
📊 Risk/Reward: ~1:2 or better.
📉 Bearish Trade Idea (Sell Setup)
❌ Trigger: If DXY closes below 106.344 on a daily candle , it could signal further downside.
📉 Entry: Sell below 106.200 after confirmation.
🎯 Targets:
Target 1 : 105.156 (50% Fib)
Target 2 : 103.968 (38.2% Fib)
📍 Stop-Loss: Above 107.000 (to avoid fakeouts).
📊 Risk/Reward: 1:2 minimum.
🛠️ Risk Management Notes
Watch for fundamental news (FOMC, inflation data, rate decisions) that could cause volatility.
Use partial take profits to secure gains along the way.
If entering a buy trade, consider trailing stops once price reaches 108.035.
DXY short idea dxy has been bearish
price broke out of a strong area of support around the 107.480 region
we could anticipate a retest of 107.480 to go lower
or if price decides to respect current price of 107.070 which is aligned with H4 structure looking left, we could see her falling from that specific price
DXY short setup📉 USD Dollar Index (DXY) Short Setup 📉
Entry: Around $107.00
Stop Loss: $107.50 (Above resistance level)
Target: $106.00 (Support zone)
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~2.0
🔹 Potential breakdown of ascending trendline 📉
🔹 EMA alignment showing weakness 🔻
🔹 Rejection near key resistance level 🔴
Looking for confirmation for entry. Let me know your thoughts! 💬 #DXY #USDollar #Forex #Trading
#USDX 4HUSDX (4H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is forming a flag pattern, which is generally considered a continuation signal. This indicates that the market is in a consolidation phase after a strong move, and a breakout could lead to further bullish momentum.
Forecast:
A buy opportunity may arise if the price breaks above the upper trendline of the flag pattern, confirming bullish strength.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered after a breakout above the flag pattern with strong volume.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed below the recent low to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target the next key resistance levels based on previous price action.
Market Sentiment:
The flag pattern suggests that the market is pausing before continuing its upward move. Waiting for a confirmed breakout will help align with the prevailing trend and avoid false signals.
DXYShort idea. From last supple that broke structure. In line with weaker fundamental data and stronger Euro. Waiting for confirmation from these to levels. More confident with the higher supply zone. Would correlate with key demand zone for EU.
$DXY, $BTC, $XRP, Theory The TVC:DXY is in a spiralling downtrend which will cause CRYPTOCAP:BTC to pass its current ATH eventually topping again which will correlate with the TVC:DXY finding strong support between 103.6 and 104. The TVC:DXY will probably set a local range before eventually continuing on a bullish trajectory back toward 110+ ( *this will mark the end of the first half of the bull market * from Now - May)
Some event in May will cause the TVC:DXY rebound to 110+ during which time we will see a major market crash lasting from (May to July). However: From 110+ i suspect the TVC:DXY will see another major correction downward which will mark the final phase of the bullrun begining about June/July until only God knows when, but historical indicators point to around October/Nov for the top.
Unless CRYPTOCAP:BTC completely crashes on one of its famous bloody corrections and go to ZERO then, it MUST go above $200,000 This cycle.
Remember CRYPTOCAP:BTC floats all boats , so just imagine what price CRYPTOCAP:XRP and the broader digital currency market will be... gimmi your best guess!
DXY 1W IdeaPotential for a bullish pullback on the DXY Jones which could lead to a price movement towards the resistance level at 115.000
DXY Bullish Setup
106.50 seems to be a good support to resume DXY bull rally to go for a new wave 3 near 113
105.40 is likely strong support for the current wave, aligned with the long term axis line
DXY retracementDXY looking to cool down a bit, not sure if it can retrace that high but it possibly retests the head shoulder, which aligns with 0.68 fib level, for a continuation down.
DeGRAM | DXY retest of supportDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines.
The price is retesting the support level, which previously acted as a rebound point.
The chart keeps the descending structure.
We expect a correction in the channel after fixing above the important psychological level of 107.
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USD Under Pressure: Impact Retail Sales and Trade TensionsThe U.S. dollar faces another challenging session, with the DXY index dropping 0.4% in the end-of-week session and posting a weekly decline of 1.4%, bringing the greenback to levels unseen since early December. This performance is largely attributed to disappointing January retail sales data and trade tensions stemming from the potential implementation of more “meticulous” tariffs than initially expected, some of which may not take effect until April.
Retail sales, one of the key indicators of U.S. consumer strength, fell 0.9% month-over-month in January, significantly below the -0.1% expected by analysts. This marks the sharpest contraction since March 2023, reflecting the impact of adverse weather conditions and specific factors such as the Los Angeles wildfires. Sectors such as sporting goods, vehicles and parts, and e-commerce experienced the largest declines. This deterioration in domestic demand is further reinforced by the drop in “core” sales for GDP calculations—which exclude food, automobiles, building materials, and gasoline—coming in at -0.8%.
In terms of monetary policy, this data supports the likelihood of a second rate cut in 2025. Futures markets are now pricing in approximately 38 basis points of easing before year-end, a notable adjustment from the 26 basis points anticipated just the day before. The scale of this market revision reflects the relative shift in the economic outlook following weak consumer data. Naturally, this expectation of lower returns on dollar-denominated assets, with the U.S. Treasury yield falling 6 basis points to 4.47%, exerts downward pressure on the U.S. currency.
Looking at the short- and medium-term outlook, the dollar’s performance will continue to be shaped by the evolution of trade tensions. The recent executive order signed by President Donald Trump includes the adoption of “reciprocal tariffs”, though the final scope of these measures remains uncertain. If the administration continues to adopt a “surgical” approach to counter what it considers unfair trade imbalances, the market may find further reasons to dismiss the scenario of a stronger greenback. Should this bearish trend for the USD persist, the next key level for the DXY index is around 105. The dollar’s trajectory will depend both on expectations for additional Fed rate cuts and tariff decisions, both of which will be critical in shaping the next few months.
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DXYThe DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. It serves as a key indicator of the dollar’s value in global markets. The index tends to rise when the dollar strengthens and falls when it weakens. Major economic events, Federal Reserve policies, inflation data, and geopolitical developments significantly impact its movements. Traders and investors use the DXY to assess currency trends, hedge risks, and make informed decisions in forex and commodities markets.
DeGRAM | DXY retest of the trend lineDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines.
The price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel and has already reached the dynamic support, which has previously acted as a rebound point twice.
The chart dropped below the 62% retracement level and afterwards formed a harmonic pattern and even though the descending structure has been maintained, the index has not yet formed a descending bottom.
We expect that after consolidation above 107.760 DXY may rise in the channel to the nearest resistance at 108.540.
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DeGRAM | DXY growth in the channelThe DXY is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel and dynamic support, which has already acted as a rebound point twice.
The chart has formed a harmonic pattern.
The index will continue to grow after consolidation above the 62% retracement level.
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DXY- Trade Plan 11/02/2025Dear Traders,
I expect price will be start correction to 105.200 Area ,
Now price started downward movement (Descending Channel)
i have 2 Scenario`s for Correction
1- Start correction from 108.600-108.700
2- Start Correction from 109.000-.109.100
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DXY bearish pressureThe dollar index is slightly defensive. The result is a break of the ascending trend line. For now, the dollar is supported by the EMA 50 moving average. If the index falls below the moving average line, the index would retreat below 107.00. A potential target is 106.00 on the EMA200 daily moving average.
US Dollar 2025 "Crash" The DXY (USD Index) has exhibited remarkable strength over the past few years, generating significant market volatility as it surges and retraces.
The dollar’s inverse relationship with global markets—when measured against USD—is undeniable. On a broader time frame, we can clearly identify inverse correlations between stock market troughs and peaks seen in the dollar.
Presently, I believe the dollar has completed a substantial rally reaching a peak at the 0.618 retracement level of the 2022 uptrend, just above 109. This level has now prompted a rejection.
When I observe this type of price action, I immediately consider the potential for a corrective 1-to 1 move downward. In essence, this suggests that the second leg of the decline may mirror the magnitude of the initial wave, forming an equal-length corrective move.
By utilizing the trend-based Fibonacci extension, we can identify a projected local low around 95, with this timeframe aligning with November 2025. Interestingly, historical data suggests that bull markets frequently reach their peaks toward the end of the year, often around November or December.
Should this correction materialize, it would likely serve as a highly bullish catalyst for broader markets—potentially fuelling one last major rally before a more pronounced pullback.
Weekly FOREX Forecast Feb 17-21This is an outlook for the week of Feb 17-21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index ran the previous weekly low Friday, capping off another bearish week. With the USD weakening on mixed fundamental news, its currency counterparts are taking advantage of the opportunity to outperform the USD.
Look for the majors to potentially move higher vs the USD this week.
Be mindful there is a lot of red folder news items coming up for the week ahead, to include FOMC on Wednesday.
Enjoy!
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Correction vs. Upside Break: Key Thresholds at 107 and 110My primary scenario is a correction. The current wave structure suggests the completion of an motive wave forming an ‘ending diagonal.’ After testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone, the market shows signs of a downturn. If the index settles below the nearest support (around 107), a deeper pullback toward 105 and lower becomes possible.
The alternative scenario is a breakout to the upside. The area around 110 serves as the key invalidation level for this scenario: a decisive break above 110 would indicate the potential for renewed growth.
Overall, the outlook points to a high likelihood of a correction. However, if the price breaks above 110, the bullish scenario regains relevance.
ICEUS:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY TVC:DXY
