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DXY:Today's Trading StrategyTrump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all imported cars, aiming to force the return of many automotive manufacturing and related industries through the "tariff stick." However, the actual situation is more complex. Currently, there are significant issues within the US domestic industrial chain system, with declining quality and craftsmanship, failing to meet the needs of many automotive manufacturing enterprises. As a result, this measure is unlikely to achieve the desired effect and may even harm the US itself. The US Dollar Index is the first to bear the brunt. Upon the market's confirmation that Trump has officially signed the order and tariffs will be imposed, the pressure on the US Dollar Index suddenly emerged, squandering the hard-earned advantages accumulated yesterday. This led to a sharp decline in the US Dollar Index early today. Regarding today's trading strategy, it is recommended to adopt a trading approach based on the market's oscillatory trend. One can seize the opportunity to sell the US Dollar Index short at highs and buy non-US currencies at lows, as the current market demand indicates that the US Dollar Index cannot truly rise, nor will it experience a significant decline for now. Therefore, it is advisable to find opportunities to sell the US Dollar Index short at highs during the market's oscillation. Trading strategy: buy@103.70-103.80 TP:104.50-105.00 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
TVC:DXYLong
by LeoBlackwood
Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over New TariffsThe U.S. dollar traded weaker on Thursday, dropping 0.22% in the DXY index, despite the release of economic figures that slightly exceeded market expectations. This negative move becomes technically significant as it occurs near the 200-period moving average, a key level that was breached earlier in March, placing the greenback under greater short-term selling pressure. The key economic data released was the Q4 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed an annualized growth rate of 2.4%, marginally above the expected 2.3%, though representing a notable slowdown from the previous quarter’s 3.1%. This growth was primarily driven by consumer spending, which rose 4%, its fastest pace since Q1 2023, and higher government expenditures (3.1%), partially offsetting declines in fixed investment and exports. Despite the apparent economic optimism suggested by these figures, the underlying strength of the dollar remains questioned due to recent trade policy decisions by the Trump administration and the significant deterioration in consumer sentiment during Q1 2025. Particularly noteworthy is the announcement of new 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts, effective from April 3. Trump labeled this date as the "Liberation Day" for the U.S. automotive industry, asserting the primary goal is to stimulate local production and correct historically unfair trade practices. However, substantial risks emerge from this policy, including potential disruptions to global supply chains, a significant increase in new vehicle prices (ranging from an additional $4,000 to $12,200 per unit), especially affecting electric vehicles highly dependent on imported components, and inflationary pressures that might compel the Federal Reserve to reconsider its current pause on restrictive monetary policy. Additionally, the auto industry immediately reacted negatively, with shares of giants like General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis declining, while Canada and the European Union strongly opposed the measure, considering potential retaliatory actions that could escalate global trade tensions. In this scenario, markets closely watch Friday’s release of the PCE inflation report and the University of Michigan's inflation expectations index, indicators that could provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve's next moves. The Fed remains cautiously on the sidelines, evaluating the real impact of governmental trade policies on inflation and economic growth. Ultimately, although today the dollar exhibited technical and fundamental weakness, its future outlook continues to hinge significantly on domestic and international political and economic dynamics, promising continued high operational volatility in the near term. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
DXY - How Instant Gratification Kills & Patience Pays Earlier in the month I shared a trading idea on the DXY looking at potential buying opportunities based on a Bullish Cypher & test of structure. There was some negative feedback from that original idea, simply because the trade didn't reverse "right away" - Today, I'm going to update you on this idea as well as share with you some thoughts on how instant gratification can ruin traders and how patience literally pays off when it comes to trading. If you have any questions and comments, please leave them below and I think the podcast episode that I'm referring to in the video was episode 1131 "How To Avoid Panic and Protect Profits" - Not 100% sure about that though. Akil
TVC:DXYLong
by Akil_Stokes
3
DXY Is Bullish! Long! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 6h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 104.402. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 105.208 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
Dollar Index Technical AnalysisThe Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a key weekly resistance zone around 110.26, as shown in the chart. Here's a breakdown of the technical analysis: Resistance at 110.26: This level has acted as a critical barrier, causing the current pullback. The index has struggled to sustain momentum above this zone, indicating potential exhaustion for bulls. Trend Reversal Signals: The large rejection candles at resistance indicate seller dominance. If the weekly close remains below 109, we could see sustained bearish momentum. Support Levels Below: 105.35–105.66: Key support zone acting as the next likely target for bears. 103.33–103.82: A significant level to watch if the decline accelerates, providing a potential buy zone. Shift in COT Data: The bearish shift in the COT index aligns with the resistance rejection, adding fundamental weight to the technical setup. Outlook: With Trump’s policy announcements expected soon, the DXY is at a critical turning point. A break below the immediate support at 108.79 could lead to a drop toward the 105 range. Conversely, if bulls defend this zone, we might see a retest of the 110 resistance. Trade with caution, as geopolitical and policy events may drive volatility in the coming weeks.
TVC:DXYShort
by Mike_SnD
1
DOLLAR INDEX Good Day Fellow Traders We have seen that the Dollar has stopped trending at 110 area as market on the chart as a weekly level of resistance, with thus we have closely been tracking the cot index which indicates that a correction is due, although there has not been much action of impulsive move down, we do expect at least a 3-wave pullback down to the 105 area, should this level break it open the chart for a drop down to the weekly level at 104.00. Yesterday we had a higher inflation reading, with trump policies in action we could expect more of the same higher volatile moves to come and USD to be the dominant trading currency under the rain of Trump. My personal opinion would be to stay away from forex pairs and rather shift focus to swing and position trade the global indices as political turmoil will affect currencies most, look at monthly, weekly and daily charts(entries) with wide stops
TVC:DXY
by Mike_SnD
1
Dollar near term strenght coming, Weekly demand holdingThe DOllar has been in a decline over the last couple of months, We can see from tracking how the COT INDEX COT Index in Forex for 6 months and 36 months The 6-month and 36-month time frames typically refer to the historical analysis of COT data for specific currency pairs, providing insights into: 6-month COT Index: This reflects the trading positions over the past 6 months. It shows the trends in how market participants (e.g., hedge funds or commercial traders) have been positioned recently. Traders typically use this shorter time frame to gauge recent trends and near-term sentiment. A higher COT Index value indicates that speculators have a larger net long position, suggesting potential bullish sentiment, and vice versa for a lower COT Index. 36-month COT Index: This reflects the trading positions over the past 3 years. It provides a longer-term view of trader positioning, helping to identify historical trends and market cycles. A higher 36-month COT Index suggests persistent bullish positioning over the longer term, we can see the Dollar has been bought up at WEEKLY Demand, we will start looking for a shift to buy the Dollar on a daily chart.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mike_SnD
Mid-Week Analysis March 27-28: USD FX Majors Stock Indices, ...In this video, we look back on the forecasts from this past weekend, and check how they are playing out to this point in the week. USD Index, S&P500, Nasdaq ,Dow Jones, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, JPY. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXY
by RT_Money
2
DXY:Pay attention to the retest of the daily chart supportOn Tuesday, the price of the US Dollar Index generally declined. The intraday price peaked at 104.444, bottomed out at 103.917, and closed at 104.189. From the perspective of the daily chart, the level of 103.80 below serves as a crucial watershed for the wave trend. As long as the price remains above this level, a short-term bullish position is advisable for the time being. Meanwhile, the short-term support of the four-hour chart is in the 104.10 area. Currently, the price in the short term is fluctuating and is likely to continue to retest the support area of the daily chart. Therefore, in trading operations, focus on the support of the daily chart and anticipate an upward movement. Trading strategy: buy@103.70-103.80 TP:104.50-105.00 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
TVC:DXYLong
by LeoBlackwood
Dollar Caught in Mixed SignalsThe US dollar is trading with relative stability this Wednesday, consolidating within a tight range as markets carefully analyze a series of recent economic data that suggest mixed signals about the strength of the world’s largest economy. The latest durable goods orders report for February surprised to the upside, showing an increase of 0.9%, compared to expectations of a 1% decline. Although lower than the robust 3.3% growth recorded in January, this data still reflects some resilience in key sectors such as transportation, machinery, and electrical equipment, which could partially ease concerns over an imminent economic slowdown. However, the optimism sparked by this figure is counterbalanced by a 1.5% drop in non-defense capital goods orders. This indicator, crucial for measuring business confidence and future investment, posted its first contraction in four months, declining 0.3% excluding aircraft. This setback appears to reveal growing caution among US companies, likely driven by uncertainty surrounding trade and tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence showed concerning signs in March. The overall index plummeted to 92.9, reaching its lowest level since 2022. Particularly alarming was the decline in the expectations index, which fell to 65.2, hitting a 12-year low. This drop reflects growing pessimism among American households regarding the economic outlook, worsened by negative perceptions of trade policies and their potential impact on inflation and employment. Inflation, and its anticipated evolution in the coming months, has become a key factor influencing market sentiment toward the dollar. Markets are especially focused on the release of the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflationary pressures. Should this figure show a significant increase, the Fed may be prompted to maintain a cautious and restrictive stance, thereby supporting the dollar. Conversely, a more moderate reading could lead the central bank to consider less aggressive adjustments, putting downward pressure on the US currency. In conclusion, as markets continue to digest these contradictory signals, the dollar appears likely to remain within a tight range in the short term. Uncertainty over trade policy, combined with mixed signs of economic strength, create a challenging operational environment. As such, caution prevails among investors and businesses, and the market remains on alert, aware that in the current climate, more than ever, clarity on economic and trade policy will be crucial to shaping the near-term future of the US dollar. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
Skeptic | DXY Showdown: Battle at 104.403Welcome back, guys! 👋I'm Skeptic Today, we're diving deep into the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), analyzing key levels and potential triggers. 🔍 Recap & Current Structure: As highlighted in our previous analysis , the major daily support (0.618 Fib) held strong at 103.303 , with price reacting precisely at this level. Currently, the DXY is testing a critical 4H resistance at 104.403 , which aligns with: A 4H consolidation range breakout zone A potential fakeout trap if price fails to sustain momentum The RSI (65.92) suggests building bullish momentum, but confirmation requires a clean break above 104.403. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup): Trigger: Break & close above 104.403 Confirmation: RSI holding above 65.92 Invalidation: Rejection + close back below 104.000 📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup): Trigger: Rejection at 104.403 + drop below 103.936 Confirmation: RSI reversal below 50 + bearish 4H candle close ⚠️ Key Notes: Fundamentals: Recent economic data favors dollar weakness—trade longs cautiously. Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging—wait for confirmed breaks. Stay sharp, and I’ll see you in the next analysis!
TVC:DXY
by SkepticWise
3
DXY FORECAST Q1 FY25 : zim dollar dollarBack again with a TVC:DXY doomsday post my judgement at the moment is based of the following reasonings. 📉 Tariffs & Global Trade Impact Tariffs weaken trade activity: If the U.S. imposes tariffs, it might reduce export competitiveness and disrupt global supply chains. That can lead to lower foreign demand for U.S. dollars, putting downward pressure on the DXY. Market uncertainty: Investors often move away from riskier assets during trade wars, but if confidence in the U.S. economy declines, they might shift into other safe havens (like gold or the Swiss franc) instead of dollars. 💰 Money Supply Contraction Dollar scarcity effect: The contraction in M2 money supply could strengthen the dollar temporarily due to reduced liquidity. However, if the Fed eases monetary policy to counter recession fears, it might reverse the effect, weakening the dollar. 📊 Inflation & Real Interest Rates Sticky inflation: If inflation remains above target (around 2.9%), and tariffs drive consumer prices higher, the Fed may face pressure to hold or hike interest rates — which could eventually support the dollar. Recession signals: On the flip side, if the economy contracts, rate cuts could come into play, flooding markets with liquidity and pushing the dollar down. in my opinion the shrinking money supply points to future deflationary pressures, which historically support the dollar however disruptive trade policies could destabilize growth, undercutting the dollar’s strength. If tariffs intensify and growth stalls, the dollar may stay weak or decline further despite the contracting money supply. But if the Fed stays firm on inflation control and global instability rises, the dollar could rebound as a safe haven... though this would depend on whether markets believe the U.S. can avoid a full-blown recession. Like Comment Follow Tip Gift its appreciated for more serious work like this.
TVC:DXYShort
by Bekiumuzi_Dube
US Dollar's Worst Month Since 2023: DXY Faces Make-or-Break The greenback ends Q1 under pressure as soft inflation data, central bank divergence, and rising risk appetite weigh on the long-term outlook. 📉 A Fragile Finish to Q1 for the Dollar As we close out March and head into Q2, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is on track for its worst monthly performance since December 2023, erasing nearly half of its four-month rally. From a high of 110.00 in January 2025, the index has dropped to a recent low of 102.84, highlighting growing fragility in the dollar's long-term structure. The 7.2% slide since the start of the year reflects shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy, global interest rate convergence, and an increase in risk-on sentiment. With the DXY trading around 103.80 at the time of writing, bulls are struggling to reclaim momentum above the critical 104.00 barrier—a zone that has served as both support and resistance over the last eight months. 🔍 What's Driving the Weakness? Several fundamental forces have contributed to the dollar's Q1 decline: 📉 1. Cooling Inflation and Dovish Fed Signals February and March inflation prints came in softer than expected, leading markets to price in rate cuts sooner than the Fed's official guidance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious tone, but recent FOMC minutes and commentary from regional presidents suggest that a mid-year rate cut is increasingly likely—a development that undermines the dollar's yield advantage. 🌍 2. Global Central Bank Catch-Up The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) have recently resisted premature rate cut expectations, with hawkish commentary supporting their respective currencies. Meanwhile, Japan's move away from the ultra-loose monetary policy has lifted the yen, reducing the dollar's appeal as a carry-trade favourite. 💹 3. Equities, Risk-On Sentiment, and Gold Strength The S&P 500's record highs, strong demand for emerging markets, and gold's breakout to new all-time highs are clear indicators of a market rotating into risk assets and inflation hedges—further weakening safe-haven demand for the dollar. 📊 Technical Analysis: 104.00 Is the Line in the Sand The DXY's decline from 110.00 has retraced 50% of the four-month rally, with a firm low found at 102.84 earlier this month. While that level has provided near-term support, upside momentum remains capped below 104.00, a multi-month resistance level that must be reclaimed to reestablish bullish control. 🔺 Key Resistance Levels: 104.00 – Multi-month pivot zone, critical for trend shift 104.46 – Minor breakout level; confirmation of bullish continuation 105.96 – Short-term upside target if 104.46 is cleared 🔻 Key Support Zones: 103.58–103.25 – Minor support zone just below current levels 102.84 – March low; major near-term support 102.39–102.00 – Final downside target if 102.84 fails A break below 102.84 could accelerate bearish momentum into the 102.00 psychological level, especially if April's macro data confirms a slowing US economy or rising expectations for rate cuts. 🧭 April's Outlook: All Eyes on 104.00 The month of April will be pivotal in shaping the medium- to long-term outlook for the dollar. Key catalysts to watch include: March jobs report (NFP) – Signs of labour market cooling will intensify rate cut bets. Core PCE inflation – The Fed's preferred inflation gauge could confirm the disinflation trend. Geopolitical developments – Ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, Taiwan, and Ukraine could spark temporary safe-haven flows, but may not be enough to reverse the downtrend. Unless the DXY can close April above 104.46, it risks confirming a longer-term bearish reversal, which could open the door to sub-100 scenarios later in the year—especially if US macro data continues to soften and global rate differentials tighten further. 🔄 Scenarios to Watch: Bulls Need a Breakout 📈 Bullish Scenario: Price holds above 103.25, reclaims 104.00, and breaks 104.46 Momentum builds toward 105.96 April data surprises to the upside, delaying Fed cuts 📉 Bearish Scenario: Rejection at 104.00, breakdown below 102.84 Push into 102.00 support zone or lower April macro data reinforces dovish narrative, equity strength continues ⚠️ Final Thoughts: Cautious Tone, Technical Pressure The US dollar is ending Q1 under clear technical and fundamental pressure, with the DXY sitting at a critical inflection point. While the March low at 102.84 may hold in the short term, failure to break above 104.00–104.46 will leave the index vulnerable to further downside. With central bank divergence fading and risk appetite on the rise, the greenback's role as a defensive play is weakening. Unless April delivers a surprise upside catalyst, the path of least resistance appears to remain lower.
TVC:DXY
by Rotuma