Business sentiment turning up which is usually bullish Since the 70's, a significant improvement in the US business sentiment, as measured by the US NFIB Business Optimism Index, usually translated in a higher S&P500 in the following months and year. The only exception being 2021 when the pandemic put a halt to the rise in the stock market (but did reco
Key data points
Last release
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Observation period
Mar 2025
Next release
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Forecast
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Highest
108.80 POINT on Aug 31, 2018
Lowest
80.10 POINT on Apr 30, 1980
About United States NFIB Business Optimism Index
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components calculated based on the answers of around 620 NFIB members. This questions include: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
No news here
Looks like there's nothing to report right now
MACRO MONDAY 33 ~ U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index MACRO MONDAY 33 ~ NFIB
National Federation of Independent Business Index (NFIB)
Released Tuesday 13th Feb 2024
Think of the NFIB small business index as a sentiment index, a sort of mood meter for small businesses. The higher the index, the more optimistic small businesses will be about spending
NFIB small businessPersonal notes on economic indicator.
Optimism is heading lower.
The last major read was the fallout of 08.
Incurs a negative bias for the wider market.
EShort

USBOI and SPXThere appears to be a correlation between the U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index (USBOI) and the S&P 500. When the Stochastic RSI of the USBOI was oversold to the 2.67 level, the S&P 500 tended to outperform thereafter. Interestingly enough, this signal is currently oversold at that level meaning the
ELong

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