How to Track Inflation NumberHow to track inflation number?
When the Fed mentions their 2% inflation target, are they referring to the commonly published CPI that we often read about, or are they referring to Core CPI or Core PCE?
10-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 10Y
Minimum fluctuation:
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point
Key data points
Last release
—
Observation period
Feb 2025
Next release
—
Forecast
—
Highest
10.22 % on Feb 28, 1975
Lowest
0.63 % on Jul 31, 2009
About United States Core PCE Price Index Annual Change
In the United States, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index provides a measure of the prices paid by people for domestic purchases of goods and services, excluding the prices of food and energy. The core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. The central bank has a 2 percent target.
U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC)U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC)
Rep: 2.8% ✅ Slight decrease as Expected ✅
Exp: 2.8%
Prev: 2.9%
U.S. Headline PCE
Rep: 2.4% ✅ Notable Decrease Expected ✅
Exp: 2.4%
Prev: 2.6%
Both Headline & Core PCE have come in lower and as expected;
✅ Core decreased from 2.9% to 2.8%
✅ Headline PCE decr
U.S. Core PCE Comes in Lower than Expected U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC)
Rep: 2.9% ✅ Lower Than Expected ✅
Exp: 3.0%
Prev: 3.2%
U.S. Headline PCE
Rep: 2.6% ✅ In Line with Expectations ✅
Exp: 2.6%
Prev: 2.6%
Historical Core PCE Norms
On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red do
HEADLINE/CORE PCE - Inflation dips down into to historical normsU.S. Headline PCE - Lower than Expected ✅
Actual: 2.64%
Exp: 2.8%
Prev: 3.0%
US Core PCE - Lower than Expected ✅
Actual: 3.16%
Exp: 3.4%
Prev: 3.5%
As highlighted on my recent Macro Monday post Core PCE is the Feds favorite metric for measuring inflation (as it excludes volati
Macro Monday 25~The Feds Inflation Barometer – Core PCE Macro Monday 25
The Feds Favorite Inflation Barometer – Core PCE
The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are released this Friday 22nd December 2023. Currently Core PCE is the most important component to the Federal Reserve in making their interest rate decisions and thus it will prov
See all ideas