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United States NAHB Housing Market IndexUnited States NAHB Housing Market IndexUnited States NAHB Housing Market Index

United States NAHB Housing Market Index

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USHMI trade ideas

Macro View Shows 2-4 Month Max And Then It Starts!Traders, Some rather ominous signs are showing in various markets not least of which includes the U.S. housing market. As you know, we have been periodically tracking the USHMI as a key leading indicator to show us where and when our coming U.S. (perhaps global) recession begins. We are close if we have not already begun, but I imagine there will be no ability for denial in about 2-4 months time. Before then, markets may continue to blow off and I still expect Bitcoin to hit our 85k target. Today we'll review our USHMI chart along with other key charts for further clues mapping future trajectory.
ECONOMICS:USHMIShort
by stewdamus
MACRO MONDAY 21~NAHB Housing Market IndexMACRO MONDAY 21 NAHB Housing Market Index The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is compiled from a monthly survey issued by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to U.S. builders in order to measure the current and forward looking sentiment for single-family homes being built or with the prospect of being built in the U.S. In the survey builders rate their current single-family sales, sales prospects over the next six months, and the traffic of prospective buyers. The NAHB Builders consists of more than more than 700 state and local associations with 140,000 members. According to the NAHB these builders account for some 80% of the new homes built in the U.S. Correlation with U.S. Housing Starts The HMI displays a close correlation with “U.S. Housing Starts”. U.S Housing starts are a broader measure of new residential construction for privately owned homes which includes multi-family housing (units & apartment complexes). U.S. Housing Starts is supplied monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau from surveys conducted and is considered a key economic indicator of the overall housing sector. The release of U.S. Housing Starts is the day after the HMI, so the HMI gives us a day head start on the 11thbusiness day of each month (16th Nov), with Housing Starts released on the 12th business day (17th Nov). The correlation between the HMI and the U.S. Housing Starts: The NAHB release on Thurs 16thNov (11th Business Day) came in at 34 ▫️ HMI readings above 50 reflect a generally favorable market view and outlook in the housing sector whilst a reading below 50 indicates weakness in the housing sector. ▫️ Since July 2023 the HMI has fallen from 56 down to 34. ▫️ The HMI registered an all-time high reading in November 2020 at 90 and since then has made a series of lower highs over 32 months. These lower highs combined with a reading below 50 do not bode well on the recession front as you can see from the below chart (red arrows). Similar to recent months, from May – Aug 1989 the HMI peaked its head above the 50 level for these four summer months before tanking down to 20. From May – Aug 2023 the HMI briefly rose above the 50 level in similar fashion and appears to now be reducing at a rapid rate. An interesting level to watch will be the diagonal support line at approx. 31 (dashed line). If held it would be a higher low and could indicate a pause in the decline. A level to keep an eye on because if lost it means we have consistently made lower lows and lower highs. Not a good look at all and we would be eyeing the 20 level in such a scenario. US Housing Starts ▫️ US Housing Starts release on Friday 17th Nov (12th Business Day) which provides for Octobers figures came in higher than expected at 1,372K vs the 1,350K estimate. Building Permits came in higher than expected at 1,487K vs the 1,450K estimate. ▫️ Given that the HMI is in less than favorable territory at 34 (HMI only accounts for single family homes), the higher than expected US Housing Starts could be an indication that larger multi-family housing (units and apartments) are being built at a greater rate than single-family houses. In any event US Housing Starts has been in decline since April 2022 In summary the charts suggest the long term trend for both the NAHB and US Housing Starts are in decline with multi-unit properties (Apartments) being more rapidly built in recent months than individual homes. We will keep an eye on the these metrics going forward and are now aware we can get a days advance indication from NAHB ahead of US Housing Starts being released. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USHMI
by PukaCharts
4
How a Housing Market Crash Equals New Stock Market HighsTraders, I believe this chart is so important it warrants revisiting the data. Indeed, the fed has to be cognizant of this same data and is most certainly is watching it closely. Therefore, we must do the same. In this video, I am going to explain why the housing market data, even though it's week, supports my thesis of a blow-off top in the stock markets this summer. Stew ⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️ My Housing Market Chart: www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USHMI
by stewdamus
1
Housing Market Crash Incoming!Demand always rules supply. Always. BLUF: Short-term projection = TBD Mid-term projection = bullish Long-term projection = bearish to extremely bearish Traders, I have been quick to point out the tremendous amount of disinflationary data in my videos which leads CPI reports in some cases by as much as 6 months (i.e. -rent). Now, let's take a closer look at the NAHB's Housing Market Index data which helps us to better denote market sentiment. First, observe that we have entered well below the weak demand zone. This is generally an area in which we can notice softening demand. Though the housing market may still remain hot in certain cities, others have noted softening demand. Once we dive below this "Weakening Demand Zone", it can often represent the beginning of a housing market recession, or, in the case of the 2008 era, a crash! We began this crash with certain city markets plummeting through this weakening demand zone, Detroit comes to mind along with a few others. These were our lead cities to watch at the time. At the point in which weakness in these markets began to be acknowledged and reported, it was already too late. Michael Bury (aka - The Big Short) knew this. The crash had begun. The markets did not react immediately, as we all know. In fact, the opposite: it would be a full 17 months before the stock markets reached their tops and then crashed hard. In a similar fashion, the Fed was notoriously tardy in recognizing lead disinflationary indicators and reducing rates accordingly. Not until a full year and two months AFTER the housing demand fell below its weakening zone would the Fed jump in and begin to diminish rates. By then it was too late. Fast forward to 2022. Despite the fact that our U.S. housing demand has fallen far below the weakening demand zone and below the approximate median for a housing crash start, the Fed continues to raise rates at a historic record pace. These rate hikes will come home to roost eventually, but not immediately. This is why I am under the persuasion that we WILL enter a more disastrous recession or worse in 2023. The lag effect of the Fed rate hikes will have a significant consequential impact. Just as in our past housing market crash story the impact will be significantly delayed and by the time they are noticeably felt, it will be far too late. Disinflationary data, low demand, low consumer sentiment, etc., will have hit us harder far in advance and the Fed will have realized they should have pivoted sooner. Though my longer-term outlook appears rather dismal at the onset, my mid-term outlook may be rather surprising to many. I do believe that just as occurred before the 2007-2008 market crash, the preceding price action will become bullish. It took the market a full 17 months to recognize the significance of our housing data, and the fed wasn't much better. Will it be any better this time around? It might be, but as we can learn from history, the market collective and the fed are often irrational and reactionary. The case for my blowoff top past the previous year's November highs still stands. The market will begin to recognize and digest more and more disinflationary data not least of which is housing market demand. The Fed will begin to be pressured more and more to pivot. And whether due to pressure or reason, I believe they will pause or pivot soon. Then the meltup (aka blowoff top) will begin. And sometime mid to late 2023, it all ends. Secular bull market (since 2009) exited. Secular bear market entered. Be ready my friends! And pray that I am wrong! Stew
ECONOMICS:USHMIShort
by stewdamus
2
Home-Builders DROP WORSE THAN 2008 - Canary in the Mine screamsLast Time The National Home Builders Index Dropped repeatedly - The 2008 Market CRASH and Deep Recession happened right after. And Now It has Dropped Sharpest in its History. The Canary is the Builder sentiment - Dropped to 55, a drop of 12 points. This is the largest single-month drop ever, with one exception. The exception being April 2020. As you may recall, the world had decide to shut down at exactly that time. Or is it the Scream of the Crashing Market ?
ECONOMICS:USHMI
by cure4virus