What's this?What's this? Are we seeing a change coming up, or will it continue to rise above what many millions of people are able to afford?
USHPI trade ideas
USHPI / US House Price Index US House Price Index (USHPI) Analysis:
The chart indicates that after a prolonged period of growth, the US housing market is approaching a critical point. The index is currently at its peak, but there are strong indications of an impending decline.
Short-Term Outlook:
As we approach early 2025, the chart suggests a major downturn in housing prices. The red arrow points to the anticipated decline, with the index potentially dropping to a range between 259.36 and 299.29 points. This decline reflects a significant correction in the housing market, which could be driven by various factors, including rising interest rates, reduced consumer affordability, and broader economic challenges.
Mid to Long-Term Outlook:
Following this decline, the chart predicts a recovery period starting around 2027, with a potential rebound in housing prices, as indicated by the green arrow. This recovery is expected to continue into the 2030s, with the market gradually regaining strength.
Key Considerations:
Economic Conditions: The projected downturn coincides with a period of economic instability, possibly driven by higher interest rates and a strained economy. This could result in decreased demand for housing, leading to lower prices.
Market Timing: For those looking to invest in real estate, the period from 2027 onwards might present an excellent buying opportunity, as prices begin to recover from the expected lows.
Long-Term Strategy: The long-term outlook suggests that the market will eventually recover, but the initial phase of the 2025 downturn could be severe, with a prolonged period of lower prices.
House Prices have likely reached a topParty's over. Now comes the bill.
Housing prices have experienced an artificial inflated price surge from march 2020 that needs to be corrected.
RSI sell signal
MACD just crossed the signal and it's bound to change direction.
Stochastic RSI at virtual 0 also signals a possible change to a bear market that is still yet to occur, which often happens at a second bounce to a lower high.
First target is 345. Using 2008 as reference price index can go as low as 310, to the 0.38 retracement, however back then - from the shock reaction to the bubble bursting - we didn't experience the recession we would have had if the Fed didn't eased the economy, quantitatively speaking, if you know what I mean.
If the Fed lets the house market drive its natural course, and if we experience a deflationary economy in the mean time, I wouldn't be surprised if we went as low as 290 or 260 on a longer term.
DYOR
Housing Index v US 30Y MortgageJust some research into housing price index and impact of 30Y Mortgage changes
us house price indexInteresting Unknown Fact:
US house price index (priced in #gold) peaked in 2001.
Peak house price (in real terms) was over 20 years ago...
US House Price Index Adjusted for Purchasing PowerUS housing most likely has PEAKED versus purchasing power.
Accelerating dollar purchasing power destruction will be reflected in UPWARD gold and silver prices.
#inflation #gold #silver
US House Price IndexHome prices in US still undervalued versus US equities.
Note, they also track same capital flows as #gold (defined by ratio vs #spx).
Oh yeah, also breaking out!
#fintwit
Coming Housing CRASH Chart posted is very clear to me that at a min we have just started the decline in the housing market at a min we should see another 22% to 37% in all home prices over the next 12 to 18 months
