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USINTR trade ideas

4/8/25 - one more i keep staring at. i'll keep it short!One more from me tonight, friends, I keep staring at this chart which plots (the scatter-like print) ST rates vs. S&P earnings yield and also shows the S&P adjusted by M2 (purple). I believe one or the other is likely true. 1/ we're in the middle of a mega bull run that began in '09 and never really ended, given low rates, tons of tech-led innovation (with cash flows) and the current correction is a pause (similar to the GREEN ARROW in '98) before continuing much higher and with rates remaining high and potentially even headed incrementally higher as stocks climb the wall of worry. 2/ we're undergoing a WTF growth scare, a geopol reordering, inability to look through for many months (or even a year) and causing such a financial meltdown that rates will be forced to head back to zero and stocks maybe undergo another 20-30% lower (the FROWNY FACES). My guess is it's #1. - the current spat is Trump-induced. - it's not a meltdown of credit markets (well... yet...) - there's not a fake _____ (event of any sort) causing freak out - and also... unlike dotcom, which ran HARD, we've had some pullbacks along the way in this recent multi-year run, testing the thesis... notably mar '20 and end '22. these tech leaders are v cash generative and there's a good reason to believe they'll continue to gain strength all this would translate into a massive run into '28, if #1 is correct. so now that we're in pure correlation 1, margin call territory etc. etc. we have the "can't look through, need help or some resolution event" so once that resolution comes. we probably boot, rally, retest. and rip. hard to do this on leverage b/c V might not be the shape of recovery (at least that's not how i'd play it, i still prefer to use deep ITM LEAPS for some flex) but let's see. this chart has my attention once again. V
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by VROCKSTAR
2/18/25 - general mkt observationsi'd rather be sippin' pina coladas on the balcony at this stage than continue at the beach party with clear skies darkening. think i've just been there, done that enough to not want to play the last minute FAFO game as much as one can possibly avoid it. so when i look out over the next 12 months... yup... let me stop right there... i don't think we can do that and i get the sense that everyone is doing just this. do i think we'll end the year higher on the index vs. where we stand today? yes. but do i think we just keep chugging along in the clown car in the same fashion as last year. no. there are a lot of things that changed in the last 3 months. take for instance, how volatile the tape has become (once again) on trump's shower or toilet tweets. less taco bell, more pepto pls. but the reality is, we're just trading the tape we're presented to. any emotional reaction you have to any of it is a disadvantage to your pnl and a benefit to the zero sum other guy *well* computer. DOGE matters. dollar dominance and signaling matters. rates matter. tariffs matter. china matters. all of a sudden, the soup might include a bat. nah. that's for a fairy tale. take a look at this chart. i've plotted ST rates vs. S&P earnings yield and flipped on some haikin ashi action for the candles to show trends as more obvious. while we could argue about infinite topics in the >12 month context for each of these... simply put... ST rates look... competitive. even in the fake video game we all play, we get to choose different doors, weapons, opinions to follow. opportunity cost matters. and so when i see the rolling over of this trend PLUS dominance of market cap weighted S&P vs. equal weight S&P (SPXEW/SPY)... this also tells me there's an embedded premium in these "will survive better than the others" boats. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.d in trading view) shows you the same thing. Everyone has been chitcoinin' but realizes now the zero-sum game of 99% of these things and the conclusion is... "settle into USDT and BTC". ultimately, that purple line (back to the trad mkts) indicates we might be reaching a point where growth is unclear, the path is unclear... and therefore... any relevant catalyst (like a headline about China-Taiwan... EVEN IF IT WON'T HAPPEN) could throw these markets off 5-10% easily. maybe that's all we get. maybe there's something else. right now we don't have that catalyst. it's getting a bit spooky out here. we will keep playing our earnings game. liking what we like BTC , NXT , UBER , tsm... incubating a few others like EVVTY , BLDE , mu. i can't HELP but to keep my cash balance awkwardly high. i don't mind jumping back in the pool. but my swimsuit is dry. the pina colada is chilly. and the whispy air coming in off the rocky ocean sends a feel-good shiver up my spine. something's off, but in a good way. opportunity is coming. be vigilant. risk manage. know what you own. know what you want to own if/when/for how much. have a good week. V
ECONOMICS:USINTRShort
by VROCKSTAR
1
$USINTR -U.S Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR (January 2025) source: Federal Reserve -The Fed kept the funds rate steady at the 4.25%-4.5% range as expected, pausing its rate-cutting cycle after three consecutive reductions in 2024. The Fed showed more optimism about the labor market and noted that inflation remains somewhat elevated, removing the reference to ongoing progress toward the 2% target. The Fed also said the economic outlook is uncertain, and is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
2025 STOCK MARKET PREVIEW – It's a BEAST!2025 Stock Market Preview – It's a BEAST! You are going to want to watch this video as it's JAM packed with great information for the new year! It may be long but aren't you trying to learn and become a better investor or trader?! Get ready for 1 HOUR of action-packed, game-changing insights: -Economic data -Technical analysis on NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM -My 2025 predictions -How to prep for the next stock market crash -How I'll be monitoring the markets What do you think will happen in 2025? Share your thoughts in the comments below! You won't find this much FREE CONTENT anywhere else! Let's dive in!
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by RonnieV29
20
$USINTR - Fed's Third Rate Cut (December/2024)ECONOMICS:USINTR (December/2024) source: Federal Reserve -The Fed announced another 25bps cut to the federal funds rate in December 2024, marking the third consecutive reduction this year and bringing borrowing costs to the 4.25%-4.5% range, in line with expectations. The so-called dot plot indicates that policymakers now anticipate just two rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 basis points, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter. The Fed also revised its GDP growth forecasts upward for 2024 (2.5% vs to 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs 2%). The same trend applies to core PCE inflation, with forecasts raised for 2024 (2.8% vs 2.6%), 2025 (2.5% vs 2.2%), and 2026 (2.2% vs 2%). On the other hand, unemployment is seen lower this year (4.2% vs 4.4%) and in 2025 (4.3% vs 4.4%) while the forecast was kept at 4.3% for 2026.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$USINTR -Feds Cuts RatesECONOMICS:USINTR (November/2024) source: Federal Reserve -The Fed lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75% at its November 2024 meeting, following a jumbo 50 basis point cut in September, in line with expectations. Policymakers reiterated their previous message that they will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks when considering additional adjustments to borrowing costs. On the economic front, the Fed noted that recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated. However, officials removed a reference they had “gained greater confidence” that inflation is moving toward the target.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
PIMCO Warning on Fed's First Cut in 4 Years next week The only event that matters next week is the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which could result in its first rate cut in over four years PIMCO analysts, in a fresh note, outlined what could be in store for the U.S. dollar as the Fed embarks on its rate-cutting cycle. Historically, the dollar has shown a tendency to weaken, at least briefly, following the Fed’s initial rate cuts since the 1990s. The Fed now faces a tight decision on whether to opt for a larger-than-expected half-point cut or stick with a quarter-point reduction. An aggressive half-point move could raise concerns that the central bank is concerned about the economic outlook for the US, potentially prompting markets to price in further, more drastic rate cuts beyond the Fed's current trajectory.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by BlackBull_Markets
$USINTR / US Federal Reserve Interest Rate 2024-2025US Federal Reserve Interest Rate 2024-2025 And here’s the chart of the interest rate. ECONOMICS:USINTR I’ll just take a wild guess! Don’t judge me too harshly, but they might keep the rate steady, with a potential cut closer to the elections. Logically, though, it would make more sense to cut it now, so the masses think there’s no recession coming and that the “Democrats” are saving the world like Chip and Dale. But people seem to forget that it’s the Democrats who’ve hiked the rate from 0.25% to 5.5% over the past four years, putting the economy in its worst shape in the last 15 years. Getting excited about these 0.25-0.5 point cuts is, at the very least, naive. So, at the November meeting, most likely just before the elections, we might see a “boost”—a rate cut of 0.5, or even a whole point (wishful thinking). This could lead to another spike in Bitcoin’s price. These thoughts lead me to believe that the Democrats (Kamala Harris) will win, followed by one more meeting in December, where they might hold or lower the rate again with the new U.S. president in place. And by late January 2025, the world might plunge into chaos, oops—I mean the rates will start climbing again. The next cut might not come until 2026. That’s why I’d expect the recession we’ve been hearing about for over two and a half years to finally kick in. Just my two cents!
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by trushkovskiy
Knock Knock. Who's There? Vibecession Ft. US Interest RatesHello Everyone, IMPORTANT: ALL FED POLICIES LEAD TO NEGATIVE OUTCOMES TLDR AT THE END In February 2022 the Federal Reserve gave us the fastest rate raising campaign in history to try and combat very high inflation, but they were very late in raising rates causing one of the worst inflation in 40 years. During his speech at Jackson Hole he confirms rate cuts in September due to inflation being under control and the labor market "cooling." Good news is inflation is under control, however this is only the start of our labor market "cooling." Jerome Powell is extremely late in cutting rates and will be cutting rates because we are getting BAD economic data and the cracks are showing in our labor market, commercial real estate, and banking sectors. The Federal Reserve 100% KNOWS a recession is coming that is why they are cutting rates. We have Jerome Powell come up on stage sweet talk to us about a soft landing, inflation under control, and how he will cut rates to help the labor market. He's not going to be instilling fear in Americans as a chairman. Just Remember, ALL FED POLICIES LEAD TO NEGATIVE OUTCOMES. Recession is coming, Sahm rule and inverted yield curve hasn't been wrong and it won't be wrong this time. This time it's not different. TLDR: Jerome Powell is too late in cutting rates causing a recession
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by justaturboman44
1
$USINTR - A Month of BreathThe Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more. It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since September 2007. Throughout Fed's announcement The Dollar Index TVC:DXY plunged to what can be said Wave C completed from A-B-C Elliot Waves Correction (attached ideas) Have the markets priced in Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY and Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR ? TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Trump / Rates / Dollars / Coins, OH MY!Interest Rates and the Dollar Interest rates, set by central banks, are a critical component of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve (Fed) in the United States uses interest rates to control inflation and stabilize the economy. When the Fed raises interest rates, it becomes more expensive to borrow money, which tends to slow down economic activity and reduce inflation. Conversely, lowering interest rates makes borrowing cheaper, encouraging spending and investment, which can stimulate economic growth. Impact on the Dollar: Higher Interest Rates : When interest rates rise, the yield on U.S. government bonds and other fixed-income securities increases, attracting foreign investment. This inflow of capital strengthens the U.S. dollar as investors buy dollars to purchase these higher-yielding assets. Lower Interest Rates: Conversely, when interest rates are lowered, the yield on these investments drops, making them less attractive. This can lead to capital outflows and a weaker dollar as investors seek better returns elsewhere. Interest Rates and Cryptocurrency Impact on Cryptocurrencies Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are often seen as alternative assets. Their relationship with interest rates can be complex: Rising Interest Rates: Higher interest rates can negatively impact cryptocurrencies. As safer, yield-bearing investments become more attractive, investors might shift their funds from speculative assets like cryptocurrencies to bonds and savings accounts. Falling Interest Rates: Lower interest rates can make traditional investments less attractive, potentially driving more investment into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies in search of higher returns. The Importance of Policy Decisions Independent of Political Agendas Central Bank Independence: The independence of central banks from political influence is crucial for maintaining economic stability. When monetary policy decisions are driven by economic data rather than political agendas, it helps ensure that actions taken by central banks are aimed at achieving long-term economic goals such as controlling inflation and maintaining employment levels. Transparency and Credibility: Independent central banks are more likely to make transparent and credible policy decisions, which can build market confidence. Economic Stability: Policymaking that is insulated from short-term political pressures helps avoid economic instability that might arise from politically motivated decisions. Recent News: Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump and Its Impact on BTC Markets Recent News: There was an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, which has created significant political and market turbulence. Impact on BTC Markets: Market Reaction: Such high-profile political events can lead to increased uncertainty and volatility in financial markets. Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against political and economic instability, may experience increased buying interest as investors seek to protect their wealth. Price Movements: Following the news of the assassination attempt, Bitcoin's price saw notable fluctuations as traders reacted to the heightened political risk. Conclusion Interest rates play a pivotal role in influencing the value of the U.S. dollar and cryptocurrencies. Central bank decisions on interest rates, when made independently of political agendas, contribute to economic stability and investor confidence. Recent political events, such as the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, highlight the sensitivity of markets, including cryptocurrencies, to geopolitical developments. Understanding these dynamics is essential for investors navigating the complex financial landscape.
ECONOMICS:USINTREducation
by moneymagnateash
2
A downturn is imminent - 10 Year Treasury Note based analysisIn recent years, many of us acknowledge that the term "recession" has been appearing in news and social media outlets at an increasing rate. While it acts as great clickbait, most sources tend to avoid to avoid a more fundamentals data driven approach, but rather are preferential an opinionated viewpoint from which their viewers can relate. Here I propose a more decisive graphical proof of why I believe some sort of downturn is on the (medium term) horizon, using the 10 year US treasury bond as the foundation, and comparing its recent movements to other typical recession indicators at a long timeframe. The top graph shows the US YoY interest rate divided by the US 10 year note. Bonds and the interest rate are very closely economically correlated, deviations in the ratio between these two factors provides a very strong indicator (historically) for recession territory. 7 out of 8 times where the white line around 1.2 has been crossed on the 3M chart, as shown by the bottom graph, unemployment is quick to follow with rapid and sharp increases (beginning from red vertical lines). This white line acts as the point of no return for the economy medium term. The maximum threshold by which historically the balance of the economy tips in one direction, bursting bubbles in favor of what people call a recession, and eventual return to an equilibrium (stability). This was hit in December 2022. While its very hard to tell the exact point where the downturn begins after this point, its obvious (based off this chart alone) one is around the corner. By no means is this solid proof of anything in the future, but a very simplified graphical comparison between the ratio of two major economic data trends and their historical impact on the rate unemployment. If these historic trends continue to remain strong (as they have done with 88% accuracy since 1971) we should expect a significant economic downturn on the medium term timeframe, between 3-18 months from now. This is not financial advice, derive what you will from this data, let this idea act only as a point of interest - however, I urge sensible and thoughtful investing/trading on medium/short term timeframes with a bias towards the downside and continues high volatility.
ECONOMICS:USINTRShort
by Shelly
3
US stocks to bonds in relation to FED interest rate & inflationPotential equity upside: uncertain. Potential equity downside: uncertain. FED is currently paused at 5.5% interest rates, and even if they did increase rates again like they did in 2000 after pausing at 5.5% from 1995-1998, a pivot to start decreasing rates is due in the coming years- continuing the long term stock/bond market cycle. 30 year bond yields at levels not seen since 2007…but still has 25% upside to reach levels of 1999. Going from current 5.08% to 6.43% where the 30 year yields peaked going into the tech bubble inflation era. That was FED interest rates at 5.5% from 1995-2000… FED pivot: certain. FED pivot time: uncertain Will inflation continue to run hot as tech gains continue? Or will crazy bond yields break the banks and they need a bailout amidst a prospective world war really putting FED in a pickle… How I’m going to position solely for a FED pivot: start buying bonds now as we are in the beginning of rates being paused (yellow arrow on chart) and risk off equity. I like cost averaging into TMF even if it ends up being for the next 5 years- in comparison to 1995-2000 inflation levels. That is why dca is very important and to not use funds needed for daily living. If that were the case, selling covered calls generates easy income and can add that profit to equity position to dca further. That is until FED interest rates start being lowered. At that point, hold the current average cost. That is shown on the chart as a red arrow down. Do not take profit until what is shown on the chart as a blue arrow, or when FED interest rates are paused while decreasing. The potential to miss equity upside is there up until the FED pivot. That, to me, is just what it is. Chasing equity high up until FED pivot. And I am not comfortable doing that with prospective world wars beginning involving USA. However, the potential for bond face value appreciating for years to come while inflation goes back down to 2% goal is far greater. The time that comes is just uncertain. But certainly, it will come. Dividend yields remain high until rates pivot down, so with this strategy, there’s fixed income along the way. And is intended from dca to never realize any loss. When US inflation rate is back below 2% target goal, whenever that is, start to add on equities. When FED interest rates start increasing again, sell all 20 year bonds and full risk on equities.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by raylanboogie