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USINTR trade ideas

[STUDY] Real Rates of BondsA study showing the real rate of returns on the various US Treasuries. Calculated by subtracting the YoY Inflation Rate (released monthly) from the Yield of the Bond. Real Fed Rate also shown for reference. Above 0 makes Bonds and Savings more attractive, aka more Demand for them. Price may increase and yields decrease, encouraging selling. Below 0 provides negative real return, making Bonds and Savings accounts unattractive, reducing demand. Price may decrease and yields increase to stoke demand.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS
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ECONOMICS:USINTREducation
by gavrieltrades
Mastering Forex Trading Psychology for Consistent SuccessIntroduction: Forex trading is not just about analyzing charts and economic data; it's also about understanding and managing the psychological aspects of trading. In this comprehensive guide, we will explore the crucial role psychology plays in forex trading and provide strategies to help you develop a disciplined and resilient trading mindset. The Impact of Emotions in Forex Trading * Emotion-Driven Decisions: Understand how emotions like fear, greed, and impatience can lead to impulsive and irrational trading decisions. * Psychological Biases: Learn about common cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias and overconfidence, that can cloud judgment. * The Trading Cycle: Recognize the emotional stages traders often go through, including euphoria after wins and despair after losses. Developing Emotional Intelligence * Self-Awareness : Reflect on your emotional triggers and reactions when trading. Keep a trading journal to track your emotions and decisions. * Emotional Control: Learn techniques like deep breathing, mindfulness, and visualization to stay calm and focused during trades. * Stress Management: Implement stress reduction practices, such as exercise and meditation, to manage the pressure of trading. Building a Disciplined Trading Mindset * Trading Plan: Create a well-defined trading plan that includes entry and exit strategies, risk management rules, and clear goals. * Stick to the Plan: Develop the discipline to follow your trading plan consistently, even when emotions tempt you to deviate. * Accepting Losses: Understand that losses are part of trading and focus on the long-term strategy rather than individual trades. Overcoming Psychological Pitfalls * Revenge Trading: Avoid the urge to immediately recover losses with impulsive trades. Stick to your plan. * Overtrading: Set daily or weekly trading limits and avoid overcommitting capital in a single day. * FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Resist chasing after quick profits on hot trends. Trust your analysis and strategy. Staying Informed and Continuously Learning * Market Education: Stay updated with forex market developments and continuously improve your trading skills. * Community and Mentorship: Join trading communities, forums, or seek mentorship to gain insights from experienced traders. Conclusion: Trading psychology is as critical as technical and fundamental analysis when it comes to achieving consistent success in forex trading. By understanding your emotions, developing emotional intelligence, and maintaining discipline, you can overcome psychological challenges and make more informed, rational trading decisions. Remember that mastering trading psychology is an ongoing process. Practice, self-reflection, and a commitment to improving your mindset will lead to better trading outcomes over time.
ECONOMICS:USINTREducation
by gavrieltrades
Interest rates and bear markets. We all know that rising interest rates mean falling stock prices. It's been repeated endlessly over the last year with people getting up in arms about the stupidity of the market to be rallying with interest rate hikes. To elaborate on this, here's the massive interest rate bubble of the 1970s. From 1975 - 1981 US interest rates would go up a whopping 500%! Here's what SPX did during those years. It doubled! It appears people forecasting a prolonged bear market due to "Higher for longer" did not do their backtesting. This has not historically created a bear market in US stocks - they went up 100% last time rates went up 500%. This is not a bull or bear analysis. I just wanted to let you know. Because the internet told me this was impossible - and clearly it's not. It's not even a good analysis point.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by holeyprofit
6
Harmonically, US Interest Rates are Headed Toward 35%The US Interest Rate chart has been trading within a Descending Broadening Wedge and has recently broken out of the wedge. The target for a pattern like this is typically back to the inception of the pattern, which in this case would be 20%; but we also have an additional variable here, and that's the Potential Logscale Harmonic Formation we've made here. If we are to treat the action of this chart as we'd treat any other chart, then we'd expect that once B gets broken, we'd get an accelerated move all the way up to the Harmonic Completion of a Bearish Shark, which would land us at the 1.13/1.618 Harmonic Confluence Zone up at around 34-35% There have been previous instances where Harmonics have had a predictive quality over data like this, such as the accelerated liquidity exit out of the reverse repo facility, the bond yield charts on multiple occasions, and the US Inflation Rate Charts. Which can all be seen in the related ideas tab if you are skeptical of my use of Harmonic Patterns in this context.
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by RizeSenpai
The correlation between US Interest Rates and The US Dollar (DXYInterest rates and USD strength are positively correlated. An increase in US interest rates will typically result in a strengthening of the USD. The reason is... Foreign investors tend to flock to US assets, such as bonds and fixed bank rates for higher returns. Higher demand for US assets drives up their price, and as a result, the USD strengthens. As for the relationship between USD strength and US stock market prices, it is more complex and can have both positive and negative effects. On one hand, a strong USD can make US exports less competitive, reducing demand and potentially leading to a decrease in corporate profits. This can weigh on stock prices. On the other hand, a strong USD can attract foreign investment into US stocks, driving up demand and prices. There are other reasons for the correlation such as: Interest rate differentials When interest rates in one country are higher than in another, capital tends to flow to the country with the higher interest rates. This results in an increase in demand for the currency of the country with higher interest rates, strengthening its currency i.e US Dollar. Inflation expectations Interest rates are also closely linked to inflation expectations. When interest rates rise, it is generally expected that inflation will rise too, which makes the currency more attractive to investors. Trade flows The USD is the currency used in most international trade transactions, and as a result, changes in trade flows can have a significant impact on the value of the USD.
ECONOMICS:USINTREducation
by Timonrosso
6
230112- Relation (1) interest rate, (2) Treasury Yield, (3) oil U.S. INTEREST RATES vs TREASURY YIELD vs OIL PRICE Timeframe: 1 month. start: 1972 Blue line: interest rates (USINT) Orange area: 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (IRLTLT01USM156N) Green Line: oil (scale on the left) (A) WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE ABOVE BOND YIELD, (1) it sparks a financial crisis: 1990, 2000, 2008, 2019 (2) it is followed by a spike in oil price. (3) on smaller timescale, oil price rises and falls with increases and decreases in Treasury Yields. (B) OBSERVATIONS ON INTEREST RATE: (1) Interest Rates have been falling since 1980 (2) Treasury Yields have been declining since 1980 (3) It appears, the Federal Reserves strives for a 5% interest rate. It drops interest rates FAST when the market is too hot, and builds up slowly again, attempting to meat the 5% arbitrary target. (4) As time goes on the Federal Reserve is more cautious in raising interest rates. BUT MOST RECENT RAISES IN INTEREST RATE ARE ALL BUT SLOW. s3.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by UnknownUnicorn39208297
Differences in central bank interest rates.The FED Interest rate is moving the stock market, but forex is more sensitive to the spreads. In this simple aggregated chart, indexed to 100, several spreads between countries are shown. For example, focus on the white continuous line, the US Dollar is more appetible for investor respect to Japanese Yen, because the UnitedStates has higher interest rate on its currency. While, focusing on the red continuous line, the UnitedStates have the same interest rate of Canada. This means US Dollar and Canada Dollar have the same interest by investors in terms of interest on their currency. This means USD/CAD might be less dependant now from their central bank's monetary policies
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by automiamo
5