Higher US Interest & Lower Dollar, Why?higher US rates, the US dollar should be trading higher. But inversely, the US dollar became weaker since September last year.
In today’s tutorial, we will discuss what is the cause of a weaker US dollar and the future of the US dollar; despite US interest rates could go higher than expected.
Bond trading:
• US Treasury Bond futures
Minimum fluctuation: 1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25
Code: ZB
• 10-Year T-Note
Minimum fluctuation: 1/2 of 1/32 of one point (0.015625) = $15.625
Code: ZN
• 5-Year T-Note
Minimum fluctuation: 1/4 of 1/32 of one point (0.0078125) = $7.8125
Code ZF
• 2-Year T-Note
Minimum fluctuation: 1/8 of 1/32 of one point (0.00390625) = $7.8125
Code ZT
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
USINTR trade ideas
MACRO MONDAY 10~ Interest Rate & S&P500MACRO MONDAY 10 – Historical Interest Rate hike Impact on S&P500
This chart aims to illustrate the relationship between the Federal Reserve’s Interest rate hike policy and the S&P500’s price movements.
At a glance the chart highlights the lagging effects of the Federal Reserves Interest Rate hikes on the S&P500 (the “Market”). In all four of the interest rate hikes over the past 24 years the S&P500 did not start to decline until 3 months into an interest the rate pause period (at the earliest) and in 3 out of 4 of the interest rate pauses there was a 6 – 16 month wait before the market begun to turn over. The move to reducing interest rates (after a pause period) has been the major warning signal for the beginning or continuation of a major market decline/capitulation. We might have to wait if we are betting on a major market decline.
In the chart we look particularly at the time patterns of the last two major interest rate hike cycles of 2000 and 2007 as they offer us a framework as to what to expect in this current similar hike cycle. Why is this cycle similar to 2000 & 2007?.. because rates increased to 6.5% in 2000, 5.25% in 2007 and we are currently at 5.50% in 2023 (sandwiched between the two). These are the three highest and closely aligned rate cycles over the past 24 years. The COVID-19 crash is included in this analysis but has not been given the same attention as the three larger and similar hike cycles 2000,2007 & 2023.
The Chart
We can simplify the chart down to FIVE key points (also summarised hereunder):
1. Previously when the Federal Reserve increased interest rates the S&P500 made significant
price gains with a 20% increase in 2000 and a 23% increase in 2007.
- Since rates started increasing in February 2022 we have seen the S&P500 price make a
sharp decline and then recover all those losses to establish an increase of 5% at present
since the hiking started.
- This means all three major interest hike cycles resulted in positive S&P500 price action.
- For reference, a more gradual rate hike pre COVID-19 also resulted in 20%+ positive price
action.
2. When the Federal Reserve paused interest rates in 2000 it led to a 15% decline in the
S&P500 and then in 2007 it led to a 28% increase in the S&P500. It is worth noting that a
lower interest rate was established in 2007 at 5.25% versus 6.5% in 2000. This might
indicate that this 1.25% difference may have led to an earlier negative impact to the
market in 2000 causing a decline during the pause phase. Higher rate, higher risk of
market decline during a pause.
- At present we are holding at 5.5% (between the 6.5% of 2000 and the 5.25% of 2007).
3. In the event that the Federal Reserve is pausing rates from hereon in, historic timelines of
major hike cycles suggest a 7 month pause like in 2000 or a 16 month pause in line with
2007 (avg. of both c.11 months). For reference COVID-19’s rate pause was for 6 months.
- 6 - 7 months from now would be March/April 2024 and 16 months from now would be
Nov 2024 (avg. of both Jun 2024 as indicated on chart).
4. As you can see from the red circles in the chart the initiation of Interest rate reductions
have been the major and often advanced warning signals for significant market declines,
including for COVID-19.
5. It is worth considering that before the COVID-19 crash, the interest rate pause was for 6
months from Dec 2018 – Jun 2019. Thereafter from July 2019 rates begun to reduce (THE
WARNING SIGNAL from point 4 above)…conversely the market rallied hard by 20% from
$2.8k to $3.4k topping in Feb 2020 at which point a major 35% capitulation cascaded over
6 weeks pushing the S&P500 down to $2,200. Similarly in 2007 the rates began to decline
in Aug 2007 in advance of market top in Oct 2007. A 53% decline followed. The lesson here
is, no matter how high the market goes, once interest rates are decreasing it’s time to be
on the defensive.
Summary
1. Interest Rate increases have resulted in positive S&P500 price action
2. Interest rate pauses are the first cautionary signal of potential negative S&P500 price action however 2 out of 3 pauses have resulted in positive price action. The higher the rate the higher the chance of a market decline during the pause period.
3. Interest rate pauses have ranged from 6 to 16 months (avg. of 11 months).
4. Interest rate reductions have been the major, often advanced warning signal for significant and continued market decline (red circles on chart)
5. Interest rates can decrease for 2 to 6 months before the market eventually capitulates.
- In 2020 rates decreased for 6 months as the market continued its ascent and in 2007
rates decreased for 2 months as the market continued its ascent. This tells us that
rates can go down as prices go up but that it rarely lasts with any gains completely
wiped out within months.
September – The Doors to Risk Open
We now understand, as per point 2 above, that an Interest rate pause is the first cautionary signal of potential negative S&P500 price action. Should the Fed confirm a pause in September 2023 we will clearly be moving into a more dangerous phase of the interest rate cycle.
Based on the chart and subject to the Fed pausing interest rates from September 2023 we can now project that there is a 33% chance of immediate market decline (within 3 months) when the pause commences with this risk increasing substantially from the 6th and 7th month of the pause in March/April 2024.
I have referenced previously how the current yield curve inversion on the 2/10 year Treasury Spread provided advance warning of recession/capitulation prior to almost all recessions however it provided us a wide 6 - 22 month window of time from the time the yield curve made its first definitive turn back up to the 0% level (See Macro Monday 2 – Recession Timeframe Horizon). Interestingly September 2023 will be the 6th month of that 6 – 22 month window.
Both todays chart and Macro Monday 2’s chart emphasize how the month of September 2023 opens the door to increased market risk. Buckle up folks.
March/April 2024 – Eye of the Storm
On Macro Monday 2 – Recession Timeframe Horizon our average time before a recession after the yield curve starts to turn up was 13 months or April 2024 (average of past 6 recessions using 2/10Y Treasury Spread).
From today’s review of the Interest rate hikes impact on the S&P500, we have a strong indication that March/April 2024 will be key high risk date also.
Now we have two charts that indicate that the month of Mar/Apr 2024 will come with significantly increased risk.
Its worth noting a pause could last 16 months like in 2007 lasting until Nov 2024, at which point we would be pretty frustrated if we had been preparing defensively since Mar/Apr 2024. Just another scenario to keep in mind.
The Capitulation Signal
Based on today’s chart, should interest rates at any stage decline we should be prepared for significant market decline with immediate effect or within 2 months (at worst). Regardless of any subsequent increases in the market, these would likely be wiped out within 6 – 9 months by a capitulation. An optimist could run a trailing stop and hope it executes in the event of.
Bridging the Gaps
Please have a look at last week’s Macro Monday 9 – Initial Jobless Claims if you would like to measure risk month to month. The chart is designed so that you can press play and have an idea of the risk level we are entering into on an ongoing basis. In this chart we summarised more intermediate risk levels with Sept-Oct 2023 as Risk level 1 (yield curve inversion time window opens and potential rate pause risk increase) and Nov-Dec 2023 as stepping into a higher Risk Level 2 (as increase in Jobless claims average timeframe will be hit). Should the yield curve continue to move up towards being un-inverted and should Jobless Claims increase then Jan 2024 forward this could be considered a higher Risk level 3 leading the path to our Risk level 4 defined today which is March/April 2024.
Final Word
It is worth noting that the Fed could surprise us and start increasing rates again, they may also not pause interest rates in Sept 2023. For this reason I included the small black and red arrows that provide a general timeline across different rate periods to help us gauge a market top (red arrows) and a market bottom (black arrows). The black arrows suggest a time window of 27 – 32 months from now being the market bottom. A lot of people are focused on when a recession or capitulation will start, we may want to start thinking a step ahead and prepare for the opportunity that will present itself at a market bottom. Having a time window can help us plan and be psychologically prepared to consider taking a position in a market of pain and fear should the timing window align. If we are expecting this bottom in between Oct 2025 and Mar 2026, we can make more rational decisions when the streets are red.
We can try to make more definitive calls and decisions on an ongoing bases so please please do not take any of the above as a guarantee. We know the risk is increasing now and a lot of charts indicate incremental increases in risk up to Mar/Apr 2024, Nov 2024 and even January - March 2025. All of theses dates are possible trigger events but ultimately we don’t know. We are just trying to prepare and read the warning signs on the road as we drive closer to a potential harpin turn.
If you have any charts you want me to look at or think would be valuable to review in the context of the above subject matter please let me know, id love to hear about it.
PUKA
[STUDY] Bond Rates VS Real RatesSplit view showing the previous real rate of Bonds study along now with the actual Bond Yields. This is to gain insight into Demand dynamics for Bonds and what happens to yields when real yields are positive (expectation is that positive real yields will increase demand, reducing supply, and allowing Treasury to increase Bond prices and reduce yields.
[STUDY] Real Rates of BondsA study showing the real rate of returns on the various US Treasuries. Calculated by subtracting the YoY Inflation Rate (released monthly) from the Yield of the Bond. Real Fed Rate also shown for reference. Above 0 makes Bonds and Savings more attractive, aka more Demand for them. Price may increase and yields decrease, encouraging selling. Below 0 provides negative real return, making Bonds and Savings accounts unattractive, reducing demand. Price may decrease and yields increase to stoke demand.
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Interest rates and bear markets. We all know that rising interest rates mean falling stock prices. It's been repeated endlessly over the last year with people getting up in arms about the stupidity of the market to be rallying with interest rate hikes.
To elaborate on this, here's the massive interest rate bubble of the 1970s. From 1975 - 1981 US interest rates would go up a whopping 500%!
Here's what SPX did during those years.
It doubled!
It appears people forecasting a prolonged bear market due to "Higher for longer" did not do their backtesting. This has not historically created a bear market in US stocks - they went up 100% last time rates went up 500%.
This is not a bull or bear analysis. I just wanted to let you know. Because the internet told me this was impossible - and clearly it's not. It's not even a good analysis point.
Harmonically, US Interest Rates are Headed Toward 35%The US Interest Rate chart has been trading within a Descending Broadening Wedge and has recently broken out of the wedge. The target for a pattern like this is typically back to the inception of the pattern, which in this case would be 20%; but we also have an additional variable here, and that's the Potential Logscale Harmonic Formation we've made here. If we are to treat the action of this chart as we'd treat any other chart, then we'd expect that once B gets broken, we'd get an accelerated move all the way up to the Harmonic Completion of a Bearish Shark, which would land us at the 1.13/1.618 Harmonic Confluence Zone up at around 34-35%
There have been previous instances where Harmonics have had a predictive quality over data like this, such as the accelerated liquidity exit out of the reverse repo facility, the bond yield charts on multiple occasions, and the US Inflation Rate Charts. Which can all be seen in the related ideas tab if you are skeptical of my use of Harmonic Patterns in this context.
USINTR - still in a upside trend ( wth 30yr backtesting)
*High winning rate with backtesting by my strategy
Right now ECONOMICS:USINTR is still in the upside trend.
This means that it has been consistently performing poorly and may not be a good investment opportunity in the short term.
🔔 Be prepared for reversals.
It's advisable to be patient and wait for the downward trend to occur before the risk market confirms a bullish market again.
Good luck!
The correlation between US Interest Rates and The US Dollar (DXYInterest rates and USD strength are positively correlated.
An increase in US interest rates will typically result in a strengthening of the USD.
The reason is...
Foreign investors tend to flock to US assets, such as bonds and fixed bank rates for higher returns.
Higher demand for US assets drives up their price, and as a result, the USD strengthens.
As for the relationship between USD strength and US stock market prices, it is more complex and can have both positive and negative effects.
On one hand, a strong USD can make US exports less competitive, reducing demand and potentially leading to a decrease in corporate profits.
This can weigh on stock prices. On the other hand, a strong USD can attract foreign investment into US stocks, driving up demand and prices.
There are other reasons for the correlation such as:
Interest rate differentials
When interest rates in one country are higher than in another, capital tends to flow to the country with the higher interest rates.
This results in an increase in demand for the currency of the country with higher interest rates, strengthening its currency i.e US Dollar.
Inflation expectations
Interest rates are also closely linked to inflation expectations.
When interest rates rise, it is generally expected that inflation will rise too, which makes the currency more attractive to investors.
Trade flows
The USD is the currency used in most international trade transactions, and as a result, changes in trade flows can have a significant impact on the value of the USD.
230112- Relation (1) interest rate, (2) Treasury Yield, (3) oil U.S. INTEREST RATES vs TREASURY YIELD vs OIL PRICE
Timeframe: 1 month. start: 1972
Blue line: interest rates (USINT)
Orange area: 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (IRLTLT01USM156N)
Green Line: oil (scale on the left)
(A) WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE ABOVE BOND YIELD,
(1) it sparks a financial crisis: 1990, 2000, 2008, 2019
(2) it is followed by a spike in oil price.
(3) on smaller timescale, oil price rises and falls with increases and decreases in Treasury Yields.
(B) OBSERVATIONS ON INTEREST RATE:
(1) Interest Rates have been falling since 1980
(2) Treasury Yields have been declining since 1980
(3) It appears, the Federal Reserves strives for a 5% interest rate. It drops interest rates FAST when the market is too hot, and builds up slowly again, attempting to meat the 5% arbitrary target.
(4) As time goes on the Federal Reserve is more cautious in raising interest rates.
BUT MOST RECENT RAISES IN INTEREST RATE ARE ALL BUT SLOW.
s3.tradingview.com