This time will be different“The investor who says, ‘This time is different,’ when in fact it’s virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing.”
USPS trade ideas
Crash Incoming 12?United States Personal Savings ( USPS ) with the 100 EMA trend line . Since April 2020 spike, due to the 'stay at home' Covid year, savings are in a downfall. The trend line , now trending down again, was trending up since around April-May 2008.
Savings Rate - Free Falling - 90% CollapseWhois gonna buy all those Model Y's, iPhone 14's/13''s/11's, and assorted GPUs for strip mining Klepto Coins?
Apparently - far fewer now.
A 90% collapse in the Personal Savings Rate...
Not Bullish.
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Consumer Credit expansion is Historic.
US Savings Rate Breaks Uptrend Since the GFC!The total savings in US accounts as a percentage of disposable personal income saw an incredible spike during the lockdowns as "helicopter money" and "stimmy checks" flooded the bank accounts of consumers, fueling an awe-inspiring comeback in retail sales. Unfortunately, however, the data shows that not only is all of this stimulus money gone (along with the pent-up demand), but the US personal savings rate has broken an uptrend that was established after coming out of the last recession.
Expect retail sales to falter (they already have) and credit card to start increasing (it already has) as the true state of the economy is revealed, right when the Fed is tapering off QE, planning 4 rate hikes this year, AND threatening QT. What could go wrong??
This is the same data that is reported by our own Fed:
fred.stlouisfed.org
