#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
4th consecutive bull bar closing on it’s high. Low volume but who cares. Can only be bullish on this price action. Futures are close to the ath while xetra already made a new ath. 19000 on xetra will most likely be hit next week. Will bears come around there to trap late bulls? Maybe but I would not bet on that. R:R (risk:reward) is on the bear side here but it’s too early to short. Could even go up to 19200 before turning.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls went mostly sideways until Friday which means that bears are still not doing much. Friday produced another breakout for W5, where my target is still 18800ish. Low probability the bear trend line from the ath will hold again. If bulls can get this above 18800, there is no reason to not print a new ath. Bears would need consecutive bear bars below 18500 to stop it. Bulls should not have the illusion that this is something other than a short squeeze. This is not buying on higher volume due to more market participants wanting in on the next bull run to 30000. This will crumble soon enough but for now it’s only going up and you should never fight the trend.
comment : Bulls printed a new ath and if you would look at the RSI, which I don’t, it would show a divergence. You really really don’t need the RSI to tell you that. Even so, market could go higher and there is no reason to short this yet. I am 90% certain this is not a W1 of a new bull trend that will break above the bull wedge but rather a retest of the highs, in this case a higher high, and it will reverse soon enough. A bigger pullback is overdue but that does not mean you can short this yet.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. Will reverse soon.
key levels: 17000 - 19000
bull case: Bulls closed the month at the highs while making a new ath. It’s a buy signal but the move is so climactic without any pullbacks, that most bulls will probably get out on a decent bear bar. The first pullback will most likely fail and it will probably be a decent buying opportunity but buying 18900 right now is bad any way you look at it. What upside do you expect? Strong breakout above 19200? Where do you put your stop? The whole move up happened above the 1h 20ema. So if bears finally break it and trade consecutive bear bars below, bulls might start thinking about taking profits.
Invalidation is below 18750.
bear case: As mentioned above, 1h ema held for 3 weeks now. Only objective for the bears is to stop the market from making higher highs and breaking below the 1h ema. 19000 is the best area for them to achieve that. If they don’t come around on Monday, we might es well see 19200 or higher.
Invalidation is above 19050.
outlook last week:
short term: Absolutely neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18633 and now we are at 18906. Neutral was wrong again since bears touched the 1h ema once last week and that was on Monday. 1h on xetra and on futures you’d have to take the 2h 20ema.
short term: Neutral again. I’m confident we will reverse soon but it’s too early to be looking for shorts. Bears need to start making lower lows and lower highs before I start. What do I need to go long? Only scalps after pullbacks for me. Very little interest in buying up here because I do not see this going to 19200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: Nope. Not yet.
chart update: Nothing. Bull wedge is still valid.
