GER40 trade ideas
DEX to FALL and retest its previous highs to make it a VALID RunGerman DEX has made its higher highs and as per the technicals, every chart has to retest its previous highs. Coming week DEX will restart its correction and will retest FIX61 and may as well go back to 170000 where the run was started. TRUMP TERIFFS COMING to haunt German Economey it will add more tax and it will slows down the production. German Elections coming on 23rd feb.
DAX 40 Crosses the 22,000 Mark for the First TimeThe German index increased just over 3% in the past five sessions, driven by the strong performance of companies such as SAP, Siemens, and Deutsche Bank , which have posted gains exceeding 3% during this period. Notably, these companies represent more than 20% of the weight in DAX 40, making their positive performance a key factor in sustaining the bullish pressure that has now pushed the index to new all-time highs.
Strong Uptrend
The DAX 40 is currently in a strong uptrend, which has accelerated since November 2024. The price has now reached the 22,000-point zone , a potentially significant resistance level. However, for the buying momentum to remain intact in the short term, it will be crucial for bullish positions to hold above this level.
Potential Correction
At the moment, the RSI line continues to oscillate above the 70 level , signaling overbought conditions. Additionally, while the DAX price has been making higher highs, the RSI has been making lower highs, forming a bearish divergence. These two signals suggest that the recent buying activity may have created an imbalance in the market, which could open the door to short-term downward corrections.
Key Levels to Watch:
22,000 points – A new critical resistance zone, aligning with the latest all-time high reached by the DAX 40. If buying activity remains strong above this level, it could help sustain the bullish bias and pave the way for further upward movement in the coming sessions.
21,300 points – A nearby support level, corresponding to a neutral zone from previous sessions, and also aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This area could serve as a potential correction zone, and if price action falls below this barrier, it may lead to a sideways phase in the medium term.
20,300 points – A distant support level, aligning with the 50- and 100-period moving averages. If the price approaches this level, it could revive bearish sentiment and put the current uptrend at risk.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
DAX uptrend continuationThe Dax (DE40) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer term prevailing uptrend.
The key trading level is at 21703, which is 07th Feb swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 21703 level could target the upside resistance at 22000 followed by 22096 and 22200 over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 21703 support and a daily close below that level could trigger a further retracement and a retest of 21600 support level followed by 21400 and 21240.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DAX NO CHANGES IN THE LABELING FORECAST TOPThe chart of the German Dax. All markets are in harmony in the formations . Inflation causes higher prices higher prices causes higher revenues higher revenues causes higher profits which causes higher stock prices based on increased Earnings . So without inflation All ASSETS DEFLATE !! That is just about to happen !!!
shorts set-upLooking at taking selling opportunities as price is over bought this will take place very swiftly during the early hours of the US sessions
DAX MARKET Continued monitoring of the IFO business Climate Index and PMI data will be crucial. A sustained decline could signal deeper economic issues, potentially leading to a technical recession.
The upcoming snap elections in February may result in policy shifts that could impact investor sentiment and market stability
The performance of major economies, particularly the US and China, will affect demand for German exports.
Dax Short 4HGood Day, Trading View friends!
I'm excited to share my latest trading insights with you. This setup is all about those trusty Fibonacci and psychological levels. Right now, the DAX is testing a 4-hour midline, and we’re typically seeing a pullback at this point. If the DAX can hold 21,500 and 21,550 as a demand area, based on our earlier 4-hour wave, we're aiming for the next level at 21,965 to 22,000.
I’m on the lookout for a rejection near 22,000, followed by an M pattern with a lower high on the second peak for that perfect entry confirmation.
Also, be cautious today as we have the FOMC meeting. Make sure to factor that into your strategies!
Feel free to check out my previous setups to get a feel for how I approach things. I can’t wait to hear what you think and keep the conversation going!
Trading Channels The Dax is having an impressive run...
It broke out of a weekly ascending channel and hasn't looked back since.
No signs of bears year, but this could be an interesting resistance zone
DAX traders are not bothered about steel and aluminum tariffs It seems that MARKETSCOM:DE30 traders today don't care much about the announcement of US tariffs on steel and aluminum. In fact, the German index continues to show resilience and keeps forming new highs. But how can this last for?
XETR:DAX
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#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I still think we will top out around 22000 but I also think we won’t go down for meaningful points before we have printed that price. We now have made 7 consecutive green weeks and the odds of a pull-back are far better than another strong move beyond 22000. I will decide on Monday on swing shorts for at least 21k and will continue to scale in and out of shorts for this.
current market cycle: Bull trend (very climactic move last weeks, market needs to take a breather)
key levels: 20500 - 22100
bull case: Bulls want to print 22000 and then continue. As long as bears are not stepping in, bulls will continue because it has been profitable for 3 months straight. My base case for the bulls has not changed since last Sunday. We are at the top or have broken above multiple bullish patterns and I think the upside will probably be very limited. Bulls know that buying new highs in hopes of higher ones is unsustainable and we are close to the point where the bull wedge breaks and bulls will wait for pull-backs to buy.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears have a red bar on Friday, wooo ducking hooo. The bull wedge looks like it can break on Monday but bears know that 22k is the price to print, so I think they will be cautious. Only a big gap down on futures open and then follow-through below 21500 could change that. Bears can’t expect either the bull trend line nor the daily 20ema to just break on the next touch. They still have nothing until we see much bigger selling pressure. Anything below 21500 next week, would be a huge surprise for the bears.
Invalidation is above 22200.
short term: Neutral until we break below 21700. Below 21700 we will likely close the gap down to 21585 and test the lower wedge bull line.
medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full ducking bear mode.
current swing trade: Scaling in and out of shorts with stop 22300.
chart update: Adjusted bull wedge and bear targets.
Divergence Trading Explained For Beginners -DAX Pullback TradeTrading divergence in the Forex or Stock market can be an important tool. Learn how to identify divergences & practically apply them to your technical analysis to increase your edge & profits in the financial markets.
In this video you'll learn
What is a bullish and bearish divergence
How to use divergence to spot potential reversals in the market
How to use volume to identify key levels of reversals
How to measure out a "Kill Zone"
What are tweezer tops & tweezer bottoms & why they are important
How to use the Fibonacci retracement tool
How to use the Relative Strength Index (RSI Indicator)
Your Trading Coach - Akil
GER40-SELL strategy 6 hourly chartOverall I have no change in view, and at different levels, we remain overbought. The market re-tested previous highs and this spooked the market a bit, I feel. However, medium term I see a return to 20,850 area, based on longer term charts.
Short-term it is a tug of war game.
Strategy SELL @ 21,750- 22,000 and take profit at 20,950 for now.
GER40 "Germany 40" Indices Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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Entry 📈 :
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however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high or low level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at 21500.00 (swing Trade) Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯:
First Target 20800.00 (or) Escape Before the Target
Final Target 20300.00 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
GER40 "Germany 40" Indices Market is currently experiencing a Neutral (there is a high chance for Bearish trend)., driven by several key factors.
🟠Fundamental Analysis
1. Earnings Growth: The Germany 40 index has experienced a decline in earnings growth, with a 5-year average earnings growth rate of 5%.
2. Dividend Yield: The dividend yield of the Germany 40 index is currently 2.5%, which is relatively low compared to historical standards.
3. Valuation: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Germany 40 index is currently 15.6, which is slightly above its historical average.
⚪Macro Analysis
1. GDP Growth: The German economy has experienced a slowdown in GDP growth, with a 2022 growth rate of 1.4%.
2. Inflation: The inflation rate in Germany has remained relatively low, with a 2022 inflation rate of 1.4%.
3. Interest Rates: The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a dovish stance, keeping interest rates low to support economic growth.
🟢COT Analysis
1. Non-Commercial Traders: Non-commercial traders, such as hedge funds and institutional investors, have increased their short positions in the Germany 40 index, with a net short exposure of 10,000 contracts.
2. Commercial Traders: Commercial traders, such as banks and brokerages, have decreased their long positions in the Germany 40 index, with a net long exposure of 5,000 contracts.
⚫Sentiment Analysis
1. Retail Trader Sentiment: Retail traders have a bearish sentiment towards the Germany 40 index, with 55% being bearish.
2. Institutional Investor Sentiment: Institutional investors have decreased their bullish sentiment towards the Germany 40 index, with 50% being bullish.
3. Hedge Fund Sentiment: Hedge funds have increased their bearish sentiment towards the Germany 40 index, with 60% being bearish.
🟤Positioning Analysis
1. Long Positions: Long positions in the Germany 40 index have decreased, with a net long exposure of 50,000 contracts.
2. Short Positions: Short positions in the Germany 40 index have increased, with a net short exposure of 10,000 contracts.
3. Open Interest: Open interest in the Germany 40 index has decreased, with a current open interest of 500,000 contracts.
🟣Based on this analysis, the Germany 40 index is expected to trend bearish in the short term, with a 60% chance of a downtrend and a 30% chance of an uptrend. However, please note that market predictions can be unpredictable and influenced by various factors.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
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Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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DAX: Channel Up, Bullish Cross targeting 22,500DAX turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.428, MACD = 367.400, ADX = 47.746) which is signalling a strong uptrend ahead, especially with the 4H RSI rising on a Bullish Cross. The last time the Channel Up pattern traded on those numbers it was on January 15th, again after a 4H MACD Bullish Cross and a bottom bounce. That time it increased by +7.50%. That is again our medium term target (TP = 22,500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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GER40-SELL strategy 3D chartIt has gone back almost to square one, and as unexpected as it is, it does not change the overall view. The expected overall move is correction back towards 20,900 to remove the ovebrought state it is in. we are trading above regression channel and almost in most cases this will not last.
Strategy SELL @ 21,550-21,700 (and beyond) and take profit near 21,950 for now.
Endless Growth: Why the Stock Market Will Always RiseThe stock market is an ever-growing ecosystem, driven by progress, innovation, and human resilience. As illustrated in the chart, the market has consistently overcome challenges, such as the Dotcom Bubble, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and even the unforeseen global pandemic (COVID-19), emerging stronger with each recovery. These events, although disruptive, highlight an inherent truth: growth is the ultimate natural force.
Every major market correction is followed by an upward movement, as companies innovate, adapt, and evolve in response to change. The rapid recovery after crises exemplifies the resilience of both markets and businesses, which continue to create value, discover new solutions, and open doors to new opportunities.
Furthermore, the long-term trend shows that the market does not just bounce back—it accelerates. Technology advances, industries expand, and populations grow. Each new development or breakthrough fosters additional growth, creating even more wealth and opportunities. The market, by its nature, is fueled by this perpetual drive to expand, evolve, and improve.
Thus, despite periodic downturns, the overarching trend remains clear: the stock market will always grow. Growth is not just an eventuality; it is the essential force driving the economy and the future of investing.
German DAX Holding Strong Above SupportChart Analysis:
The DAX Index continues its bullish trajectory, maintaining a steady uptrend with prices hovering near recent highs. Despite a minor pullback, the overall trend remains intact, supported by key technical levels.
1️⃣ Uptrend Intact with Rising Support:
The trendline (blue) continues to provide dynamic support.
A shallow retracement suggests buyers remain in control.
2️⃣ Moving Averages as Key Support:
50-day SMA (blue): 20,368.88, providing a reliable support zone.
200-day SMA (red): 19,066.15, reinforcing the long-term bullish bias.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators Reflect Strength:
RSI: At 67.70, showing strong momentum but approaching overbought levels.
MACD: Trending higher, confirming continued upside momentum.
What to Watch:
A sustained move above 21,500 could trigger further upside toward 22,000+.
A break below the trendline or the 50-day SMA could signal deeper consolidation before another leg higher.
RSI nearing overbought conditions suggests traders should watch for potential short-term pullbacks.
The DAX Index remains bullish, with rising moving averages and trendline support reinforcing the momentum. Traders should monitor price action near key support levels for potential buying opportunities.
-MW
Decoding German DAX: Crucial Levels and Emerging PatternsFX:GER30
Current Market Overview
Explore the latest insights into the German DAX index with a focus on pivotal support, resistance levels, and potential trading patterns.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support at €21,105: This level acts as a critical neckline for a potential Head and Shoulders pattern formation. We should watch closely for any breaks below this level, as it could signal further downside movement.
Resistance at €21,557: A new resistance level has formed close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance may contribute to forming the right shoulder of a reversal pattern.
Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern
The Head and Shoulders pattern is a key technical formation to watch for:
Formation Details: If the DAX breaks below the neckline/support at €21,105, it could confirm the formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern.
Target Projection: A break below the neckline suggests a potential downside target around €20,452. This level aligns with the weekly fractal resistance previously breached at €20,529, which could act as support.
Happy Trading,
André Cardoso
GER40-SELL strategy 12 hourly chartIt will be a rough ride either way, but overall think we respect 22,000 and even close 21,825 for now. The corrective action may be towards 20,875 and considering tariffs plans, or at least the possibility of it, we should see lower levels over time.
Strategy SELL @ 21,350-21,450 and take profit near 20,950.
Dax Performance Index Cash | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Dax Performance Index Cash
- Double Formation
* (Continuation Argument)) Survey Entry & Bias Perspective
* 012345 | Wave Count | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* 1st Retracement | Numbered Entry | Subdivision 2
* 2nd Retracement | Bias On Hold | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European Session(Upwards) - US-Session(Downwards) - Asian Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
