The NIKKEI looks very toppy!Is it down from here for the Japanese stock market?
Is it the first major stock market to top?
JPN225 trade ideas
The Nikkei Index Has Risen To a Two-Month HighThe Nikkei Index Has Risen To a Two-Month High
As we reported on 26th June, analysing the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen):
→ The price is in a significant upward trend (shown by the blue channel);
→ The price may continue to rise along the median line.
Since then, the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) has increased by more than 6%, reaching a yearly high on 10th July above 42,500 points. The price particularly surged on 9-10 July, breaking resistance at 41,160 (formed from the previous peak at the end of March).
However, the bears made a strong comeback afterwards, pushing the price back to the 41,160 level. Thus:
→ Completely offsetting the gains from 9-10 July;
→ Forming a bearish engulfing pattern spanning 4 candles;
→ Prompting consideration that the breakout above 41,160 was false (a trap for bulls).
According to Reuters, bearish drivers included technology stocks such as Tokyo Electron, which saw a more than 6% decline in one day, following sell-offs in US technology stocks (as reported on 12th July).
Sentiment in the Japanese stock market is also influenced by risks of interventions by the Bank of Japan to support the yen.
Technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) provides further insights:
→ The price is still in the upper half of a significant ascending channel (shown by the blue channel), originating in 2023;
→ There is no conclusive evidence yet that the price is consolidating below the 41,160 level.
However, it's possible that the bears could break below the median of the blue channel and consolidate below 41,160.
In that case, the bearish reversal from last week could become a key point in constructing an important descending channel for the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen), whose contours are already emerging (shown in red). Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, this suggests a potential break of the lower boundary of the blue channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
JAPAN TRADE: NIKKEI225 & TOPIX BANK INDEXThe FX:JPN225 index is currently offering a modest discount following a nearly 10% return to investors in February, raising the question of its investability. A key metric to watch is the Topix Bank Index TSE:TOPIXB , which gauges the health of the financial sector. Despite today's slight decline of 0.50% in the FX:JPN225 , Japanese banks continue to perform notably well. Inflation rates are anticipated to decrease from 2.6% to 2.1% tomorrow (Tuesday), and consumer confidence is expected to see a minor improvement from 38 to 38.2 by the end of the week (Friday).
Given the positive internal indicators and the limited number of significant events on the calendar for this week, my outlook remains optimistic. I am waiting for a further pullback in the FX:JPN225 to establish a level of support from which I can start to build on any additional declines.
Nikkei-Watching levelsTradingview Ideas:
Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Will watch levels 41,000 which is about now at 40500 area. bias still on upside but not till i see some change it this near term down move..shall monitor...
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NIKKEI RISKY LONG|
✅NIKKEI is the main japanese
Stock Index and is has been
Following the Yen in the opposite
Direction. The weaker the Yen
The stronger the Index, so now
Following a sharp correction on
The Yen we are seeing a correction
On Nikkei as well, but we are
Bullish biased mid-terma and
As the index is about to retest
The significant horizontal support
Level of 41,000 we will be
Expecting a local bullish rebound
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
NIKKEI 225 (BANKSTER CALL)I'm loving the way this chart is looking. But I also love the fundamentals here. US Govt. is working overtime to satisfy our allies here in South East Asia, and in the Norther 'Emerging Markets' Zone (S.Korea). However, with all that's going in the South China Sea, Japan has stepped as an ally to help us buffer some of the regions tensions. Nikkei 225 contains some of the worlds hardest hitting corporate players. So a purchase from Warren Buffett isn't a 'scratch your back, i'll scratch yours until...' but a sizable investment into the future of one of the worlds most productive societies.
With this being said, I
decided to place 25% of my portfolio into this play, with a hedge nearby in the event we retest levels seen on the Monthly chart.
Going forward, we will build out plays that will cover the risk until we are risk neutral. Then I will expose our portfolio some more to this play.
Walking the streets Fukuoka just a few years ago, during what was seen as tough economic times, it was hard to tell with how packed the shopping malls in the prefecture were.
*A consumer based economy with tons of potential.
Now, based in Bangkok, I will add the Chinese are controlling the regions most valuable retail assets with their 'unlimited' purchasing power, but the Japanese are strategically in lock-step in the more quieter ways and in economies were the value of their assets can see a larger blast north from foreign investment.
This is not investment advice. I'm not responsible for any decisions that you make after reviewing this information. Trade Responsibly.
The American Bankster
Nikkei $58187 by 2nd half 2025Looks like a wave 3 is still in progress for the Nikkei, retracement shouldn't go below say $36,000-ish before hitting a high of $58,187 to complete the 5th wave.
This 5th wave completion may be only the ending 3rd wave of a larger wave pattern.
Let see what happens in the coming years.
pullback to previous resistance?its like textbook but in the markets you never know specially in the nikkei, im sure im not the only one who see this, the nikkei its pretty bullish since 2009, only time will tell.
NIKKEI225 Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NIKKEI225 is trading in
An uptrend and the index
Made a bullish breakout
Of the key horizontal level
Of 41,000 and the breakout
Is confirmed which reinforces
Our bullish bias and makes
Us expect a further move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
NIKKEI225 SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅NIKKEI225 price went up sharply
But a strong resistance level was hit at 41,106
Thus, as a pullback is already happening
And a move down towards the target of 40,600 shall follow
SHORT🔥
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NIKKEI SHORT 41,000 SL & TP ON CHARTTaking short position on NIKKEI 1% risk 1:5r
Reason for trade is we may see the JPY basket start to bottom out and retrace currently in extremely oversold and undervalued conditions.
JPY pairs looking like they could recover a lot
I see the NIKKEI as overvalued because of the yen bleeding so much this year its a false evaluation of the price, has been drawn up artificially off the back of yen losses which may well be getting plugged now.
41,000-41,1000 is a great area for shorts
How to Trade JPY Weakness With Minimum Intervention RiskFundamentals & Sentiment
JPN225:
- Final data showed that business activity in Japan turned contractionary in June for the first time since November. Technology stocks led the advance, triggering the index to pop higher. The tech sector is the third by weight in Nikkei (~15%).
USD:
- The Fed is still in "wait and see" mode
- Recent US data has been weak (except JOLTS)
JPY
- Continuous JPY depreciation propels Japanese stocks
Technical & Other
Setup: S(B)
Setup timeframe: D
Trigger: 4h
Medium-term: Up
Long-term: Sideways
Min target: Mar high/ the end of the first breakout leg after Mar high
Risk: 1.19%
Nikkei Soars Looking Past Monetary NormalizationUltra-loose BoJ policy and the Yen’s demise have been key drivers of the JPN225 mammoth rally. The central bank exited its negative rates regime though and is shifting towards less easy policies, with at least one more hike reasonable within the year. This threatens to cut off a key source of strength for equities and JPN22 registered a brief pullback from the March record peak.
But monetary normalization has been slow so far and the stock market’s strength is based on more factors than just favorable monetary stance and weak currency. Strong earnings, structural reforms and investment-friendly government policies are among them. As a result, JPN225 has resumed its advance and runs its third straight profitable month, trying to set new all-time highs. On the other hand, the RSI reached overbought levels and a pullback here would be reasonable.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
NIKKEI 225 - Potential Bearish OpportunityThe Nikkei 225 index has demonstrated a sustained bullish trend over an extended period. However, recent developments indicate a notable divergence and the emergence of a bearish Gartley pattern, suggesting a potential shift towards a downward trajectory. Market analysis indicates that bears could exert control following the completion of the pattern at the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). This observation underscores the importance of monitoring key technical indicators and price action closely to assess the index's future direction accurately.
The Nikkei Index Has Risen to a 2-Month HighThe Nikkei Index Has Risen to a 2-Month High
As we wrote on June 17th, analyzing the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen):
→ the price formed a consolidation pattern (in the shape of a narrowing triangle);
→ the price formed a bullish reversal from the 38,000 points level (indicated by an arrow), suggesting potential growth and trend establishment upon pattern breakout.
Since then, the price has broken out of the consolidation triangle and today exceeded the 39,800 level - marking the highest point since mid-April.
Technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen) provides more information:
→ the price is in a significant uptrend (shown by the blue channel);
→ after breaking out of the consolidation triangle, the price reached the median line of the channel - implying that the bullish momentum may weaken here, but not necessarily come to an end completely.
It is possible that the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) will continue to rise steadily along the median line, but fundamental factors should be considered as key drivers:
Firstly, the ultra-loose policy of the Bank of Japan, which is beneficial for the growth of Japan's export-oriented enterprises. However, the central bank's policy is increasingly criticized, especially with the USD/JPY exchange rate nearing the 'red line' of 160 yen per dollar.
Secondly, the influence of the US stock market. In this regard, it should be noted that:
→ the current rise in the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) is linked to the strong recovery of NVDA shares after three days of decline;
→ upcoming news on US inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index values will be published on Friday at 15:30 GMT+3 and could cause significant volatility in financial markets, potentially affecting the price of the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen).
A significant resistance level is seen at the psychological level of 40,000. After the price surpassed it in March (but failed to hold above it on two attempts), it retraced by more than 9% with the formation of the aforementioned consolidation triangle.
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Nikkei Remains in Consolidation after Mixed Inflation DataJPN225 has backed off its March record peak, as the central bank made a historic exit from negative rates, shifting away from the ultra-loose stance that has devalued the Yen and has boosted equities. The BoJ is set to go further down that road and start scaling back its bond buying, while at least one more rate cut this year looks reasonable as officials expect underlying inflation to increase gradually. These prospects could weigh further on the index and sent it back towards this year’s low (36,732), but the downside appear unfriendly with the 200Days EMA following (blue line).
Despite the pullback, JPN225 shows resiliency, as the Bank of Japan maintains an accommodative stance and the lack of clarity around its intentions to reduce the asset purchases cast doubts over the policy normalization process. Today’s mixed inflation data added to the uncertainty, as core CPI rose but less than expected and core-core dropped for ninth straight month.
Furthermore, the stock market’s strength goes beyond easy monetary policy. Structural reforms, strong corporate earnings and market friendly government trying to direct saving into investments provide long-term tailwinds. As such, JPNN225 can resume its advance and push for new all-time highs (41,227). The recent consolidation is likely to persist though, amidst competing drivers.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
JP225 Direction The Japanese stock market been rising so far ...here is our JP225 is affected in a good way as bulls are incharge and we will still hold our buy orders while we trailing up with the market so far ...our target is yet to be hitted ...with no further stories...while other don't know what to do the market is bullish and buying
JPN225 1440 - ABCD Emerging : 2 hours agoABCD Fibonacci pattern identified at 6/19 07:00.
This pattern is still in the process of forming.
Possible bearish price movement towards target
levels ranging from 39,011.05 to 36,868.95
within the next 8 days.
Expiry Date/Time: 6/27 08:47
JPN225 240 - Channel Up Emerging : 2 hours agoChannel Up identified at 6/19 03:00. This pattern is
still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price
movement towards the resistance 39,519.47 within
the next 5 days.
Expiry Date/Time: 6/24 03:40
JP225 swing tradeI entered a short position on the Nikkei225 index.
These are the key economic factors and how they impact this trade idea, be it positively or negatively I will give each factor a rating, if the rating is 0, then this factor does not help our position, if it is 1 and above it supports our trade.
Economy
1. Inflation(CPI) We have seen a cooldown in inflation to 2.5% which is decent inflation that supports stocks, therefore it supports indexes. For this trade, it is a negative factor, because we want to short the Nikkei. So this factor gets a 0/1
2. Interest rates The latest hike in interest rates is a negative factor for the Nikkei, this year the BOJ is expected to hike rates more, therefore not helping the index. I'm giving this a rating of 1/1
3. GDP The past 6 GDP filings have been bad for Japan(except for the one in March we got 0.1%) so it is good for our trade idea, I'm giving it a 1/1
4. PMI Both the Services and Manufacturing PMIs show an expansion in Japan's economy, therefore being bad for my position. I'm giving this a 0/2(there are 2 possible points because I count Manufacturing and Services as two separate factors).
5. Retail sales have shown us a decrease starting from April 2023 when we were at 7.20%. Now we are at 2.4% with the latest release beating the forecast significantly, therefore it gets a 1/2
6. Unemployment recently has shown an increase, starting from Jan. 2024 when we were at 2.4%, to now at 2.6%. Overall we have a steady, range-bound unemployment, in the range of: 2.5%<->2.7%. I'm giving this a 1/2 rating because unemployment has increased, but not drastically.
Sentiment
1. Seasonality. Over 10 years the expected result of this month is -1.4% and next month is expected to be -0.8%. The five-year average suggests an even bigger downward momentum. It is expected by both the 5-year and 10-year averages to see a downward move for the rest of the year with a few slightly positive months. Therefore I'm giving this a 2/2
2. Retail positioning shows us that 64% of people are positioned long, we need to take this as an opposite signal because statistically, the masses of people are wrong. Therefore it gets a 1/1
3. COT the latest filing shows us that there was a -7.81% net change in positions, which indicates that large institutions may be starting to sell, the actual long/short contracts show us that only 30.7% of institutions are short, but this is a metric that needs time to change. Also, we see a level at which short positions start to increase and long positions decrease. Therefore I'm giving this a 3/4
Technical
I entered based on an "active zone" I took the entry as shown on the chart, if the index falls rapidly I will add another position, but we have to wait for that. The entry is good so it gets a 1/1
Summary
Trade expected RR: 3
Total points 11/17
64% analytical expectancy. This is good as most of my positions are often 50% to 60%
Nikkei Index Falls Below 38,000 Points This Month for First TimeNikkei Index Falls Below 38,000 Points This Month for First Time
According to today's Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart, the index quote dropped below 38,000 points at Monday's low, followed by a recovery (shown by an arrow).
One of the drivers of the decline was the automotive sector, whose shares led during the downturn. In particular, according to Reuters, Toyota Motors' shares fell by more than 2% as the company faces difficulties due to a certification scandal. Japanese national broadcaster NHK reported that Toyota will extend the production halt for some models until the end of July.
The fact that the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) price is recovering after dropping below the 38,000 mark suggests a false bearish breakout below this psychological level.
Technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart provides more insight into market dynamics:
→ Since the beginning of 2024, there has been a sharp rise from point A to point B by more than 20%;
→ This was followed by a retracement to point C, which constituted a Fibonacci 0.500 proportion of the A→B impulse;
→ Then there was a rise from C to D, forming a Fibonacci 0.382 proportion of the B→C impulse.
Thus, in the first half of the year, there has been a series of diminishing oscillations forming a triangle pattern, indicating a balance between demand and supply around the 38,380 axis.
Today's potential bullish reversal (which is not yet fully formed) could confirm the relevance of the triangle's lower boundary and direct the price towards its axis.
It is worth noting that the triangle boundaries are narrowing, and a possible imminent breakout of this graphical pattern, formed in the first half of 2024, could lead to the establishment of a noticeable trend.
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NIKKEI Rather long way until it bottoms but then +60% upside!NIKKEI (NI225) offers a very consistent long-term pattern when you look at it on the 1W time-frame. As you can see periodically, every roughly 3 years it peaks and then starts to correct through a Channel Down pattern towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
It was only fairly recently (in relative 1W terms) that the index sought and found support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) in October 2023, which started the rally leading to the March 2024 peak. If it follows the corrective Channel Down pattern that has been in effect for the past 9 years (since June 2015), then we may be a long way until we find a bottom.
The process doesn't need to be an aggressive one, in fact the last Channel Down that started in February 2021 bottomed in a long but very steady manner in March 2022 and even had a long bottoming process that lasted until January 2023 before the recent massive rally was initiated.
The 1W RSI patterns among those fractals are similar, so far in fact it is similar to the mid 2023 one that, as we mentioned above, 'only' corrected to the 1W MA50. As a result, we are expecting the current pull-back to extend at least as low as (near) the 1W MA50. If it breaks, we will only buy after it makes contact with the 1W MA200.
The Target process has also been very consistent throughout those 9 years, with each rise from the bottom being roughly over +60%. As a result, from the level the index bottoms, our Target will be at +60%.
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Bullish momentum drags Japan downIndices outside Europe traded higher yesterday and the right-wing-weighted European elections pushed Macron in France to call for early national elections. Meanwhile, the euro fell to a record low and European equities suffered from the result. In contrast, the rest of the international indices started their sessions in positive territory, although not all of them ended in the same way. In the case of the US market, the Dow Jones rose +0.18%, the S&P500 +0.26% and the Nasdaq +0.35%. NIKKEI 225(Ticker AT: JP225) closed down on Monday at 39,096 points, today, with the European political inertia, the market opened at 39,168.50 closing at 39,128.50 points. The index has grown by 21.42% this year.
This week, the US monetary policy news added to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) report may strongly affect the index in two days. The weakness of the Japanese yen against the dollar may mark the Japanese basket higher and the governor may try to restrain the currency again. The general sentiment on the index is Strong Buy for investors.
Looking at the chart, the RSI is currently at 57.01% in the middle zone. The price bell that has been forming on the daily chart on the NIKKEI 225 is a triple bell with the upper bell at a high trading level, with the control point (POC) at 38,653 points. If we look at the inertial movement of the chart, there has been a bounce in the correction at 36,650 points zone and currently the price is trying to look for a return to the most traded zone at 39,942 points. If this first price resistance is overcome and the index delivers strong corporate results, we will begin to see the one-day timeframe for the highs target to be reached. At the moment the index, like many other indices is at all-time highs. So it remains to be seen how long this euphoric time lasts in a market with really high inflation.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
