Before Unemployment Claim Day trade - Potential scenarios US30 🛠️ Trade Execution Plan
✅ Step 1: Key Levels to Watch
📊 Resistance:
🔴 45,070 – 45,100 → Major breakout level
🟢 Target if bullish: 45,250+
📊 Support:
🟡 44,550 → First downside target
🟢 44,266 → Stronger support level
🔴 43,753 → Deep pullback level (if sell-off happens)
📈 Bullish Scenario (Stronger-than-expected labor market)
🔹 What to look for:
Unemployment claims come in lower than expected (good for economy).
US30 breaks and holds above 45,100 (watch for a retest confirmation).
Momentum increases on MACD & RSI stays above 50.
🔹 Trade Setup:
✅ Buy above 45,100 if price closes above this level on the 5m or 15m chart.
🎯 Targets:
🎯 First TP: 45,250
🎯 Second TP: 45,400
🛑 Stop-Loss (SL): Below 44,950
📉 Bearish Scenario (Weaker labor market, higher claims)
🔹 What to look for:
Higher unemployment claims = weak labor market = market drops.
US30 rejects 45,070 and fails to break 45,000.
RSI turns downward, MACD shows red bars increasing.
🔹 Trade Setup:
✅ Sell below 44,900 if price fails to break above 45,000 and starts dropping.
🎯 Targets:
🎯 First TP: 44,550
🎯 Second TP: 44,266
🛑 Stop-Loss (SL): Above 45,050
⏳ Best Trading Approach (Timing)
1️⃣ Right at 8:30 AM ET (Initial Spike)
Price whipsaws up & down due to fast orders.
❌ Avoid immediate entry! Wait 5-10 minutes for direction.
2️⃣ 8:35 - 8:45 AM ET (Retest Confirmation)
If price breaks a key level & retests, enter on confirmation.
3️⃣ 9:30 AM ET (Stock Market Open Reaction)
Second big move might come at NYSE open.
🎯 Final Tips
Don’t rush the trade. Let the market show direction before entering.
Stick to stop-loss & take-profit levels.
Use smaller lot size if volatility is extreme.
If unsure, stay out! There will always be another trade.
Do not risk more than 1% of your account.
Follow for more cool ideas.
-Nozuk
