US30 04FEB 2025 TRADE IDEA The **Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)** remains in a long-term bullish trend, with price continuing to form higher highs and higher lows. However, in the short term, a pullback is expected after a recent push higher, as indicated by the current price of 44,285.9. The key resistance zone lies between 44,803 – 45,124, where selling pressure could emerge, while major support zones are found at 43,113 – 43,047 and further down at 41,757 – 41,527. If the price fails to break above the resistance, a decline toward the lower demand zones is likely before any potential continuation of the bullish trend.
From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, liquidity is positioned both above the 45,103 – 45,124 zone, where stop-losses of retail traders might be targeted, and below at 43,047 – 42,000, which could serve as a liquidity grab area before a bounce. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are present near 43,113, making it a potential retracement target. Additionally, a bearish order block (OB) is evident at 44,803 – 45,124, reinforcing the likelihood of rejection from this zone, while a bullish OB at 41,684 – 41,527 suggests a high-probability area for a price reversal. Given these factors, smart money could drive price down toward these key liquidity levels before another upward move.
In terms of supply and demand, the market is currently testing a strong supply zone (44,803 – 45,124), which may result in a short-term decline. Meanwhile, significant demand zones at 43,113 – 43,047 and 41,757 – 41,527 could provide support where buyers may step in. A sell-off from the supply zone, followed by a reaction at the demand levels, aligns with the overall market structure.
On the fundamental side, several macroeconomic factors are influencing US30’s trajectory. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in February 2025 will be a key driver. A hawkish Fed stance could strengthen the USD, putting pressure on stocks, while a dovish approach (rate cuts) could provide upward momentum. Additionally, the US jobs report (NFP and unemployment rate) will be closely monitored; a strong labor market could reinforce the Fed’s tightening policy, negatively impacting equities. Geopolitical risks, including ongoing tensions in Russia-Ukraine, the Middle East, and the US-China trade war, may also introduce volatility. Rising geopolitical tensions could lead investors to seek safe-haven assets, causing US30 to decline, whereas easing tensions could bolster market sentiment and support the index.
Given these technical and fundamental factors, the short-term expectation for US30 is **bearish**, with price likely to retrace toward the 43,113 level and possibly 41,527 before any renewed bullish momentum. Traders looking for short opportunities may consider selling near 44,803 – 45,124, with a stop-loss above 45,200, targeting 43,113 and potentially 41,757. On the other hand, long positions could be considered around the 41,684 – 41,527 demand zone, with a stop-loss below 41,400 and targets back toward 43,113 – 44,800.
Overall, while the broader trend remains bullish, short-term corrections are expected before the market resumes its upward trajectory. Traders should keep an eye on key economic releases and geopolitical developments, as they could significantly impact market sentiment and price action.
