DXY on the verge of a bearish reversal - The Trump EffectDXY has finally started to give bearish indications from HTF monthly supply and i think history is likely to repeat itself here, similar to trumps last term, where he wanted to weaken the dollar and is wanting to do the same again this term! With this in mind, the technicals are also aligning with this thesis as DXY looks more and more topped out as it hits crucial key levels and supply, giving breakdowns from the daily timeframes.
Its gave a 1,2 and 3 day bearish MS, confirming the monthly supply with this bearish breakdown. From here I want to see continued downside momentum into a weekly bearish MS as marked up on the chart with a body close below this level to really give HTF confirmation of this HTF reversal from supply, leading to a full bearish reversal in DXY and a changed macro outlook as EU, GU, AU all flip bullish on their HTF, fuelling a continued bullish phase in BTC as DXY breaks down with their inverse correlation they hold.
Id expect to see DXY target the SSL on the HTF range lows and come into HTF 6 month and 1 year demand ranges below this to act as key HTF reversal levels in the future. If we see the 1 weak bearish structure flip in DXY from here, its likely we start a new HTF downtrend in DXY for the foreseeable until it hits the SSL on the range lows as a minimum, which will result in a positive outlook for crypto.
Trump has also publicly stated he wants to weaken the dollar and did so in his last term too, where the dollar pulled a HTF bearish reversal putting in the high and starting a bear trend for the following 400 days after his entrance to office as you can see on the chart. This only supports the HTF bearish reversal and thesis here and what im seeing on the charts!
Weakening of the dollar results in many benefits to the USA and global economy:
Trump's push for a weaker dollar boosts U.S. exports, reduces the trade deficit, and makes debt easier to manage by inflating it away. It also drives stock market growth and attracts foreign investment into U.S. assets. However, it risks higher inflation and weaker purchasing power.
For crypto, a weaker dollar is typically bullish—investors seek alternative stores of value like Bitcoin and gold to hedge against currency devaluation. A falling USD also fuels liquidity into risk assets, driving higher speculation in crypto markets. If Trump weakens the dollar aggressively, BTC and alts could see significant upside.
