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DXY Bullish move| 🔹 Pair / TF | DXY, 1 h → Lower Timeframes | | 🔹 Bias | Bullish (buying potential support) | 📊 Key Levels Level: ~99.117 (orange shaded zone) Role: Recent Swing Low / Potential Support Zone Level: ~98.744 Role: Lower boundary of the potential support zone Level: ~99.727 Role: Potential Resistance (previous swing high) Level: ~100.116 Role: Higher Potential Resistance 🚨 Trigger Price has recently touched the ~99.117 - ~98.744 orange shaded zone, which appears to be acting as a potential support area. There are signs of potential rejection from this zone, indicated by the recent upward price action. Look for bullish confirmation signals on lower timeframes within this zone. ✅ Confirmation Observe lower timeframes (e.g., 15m, 5m) for bullish reversal patterns such as double bottoms, bullish engulfing candles, or pin bars forming within the support zone. The volume indicator at the bottom shows increasing buying volume within the support zone, suggesting potential accumulation. Look for the Stochastic or RSI on lower timeframes to show oversold conditions followed by a bullish crossover or break above a downward trendline. No significant bearish momentum or strong selling volume evident as price tests the support zone. 🎯 Entry & Stops | 🔶 Entry Zone | ~99.117 – ~98.800 (within the potential support zone) | | 🔴 Stop-Loss | Below the lower boundary of the support zone, potentially around ~98.600 - ~98.500 to allow for some buffer | Place a Buy Limit or Buy Stop order within the entry zone, depending on your preferred entry style and confirmation. Risk: Determine your position size based on your risk tolerance and the calculated stop-loss in pips. 🎯 Profit Targets | Target | Level | Pips (approximate) | RRR | | :----- | :--------- | :----------------- | :--------- | | T1 | ~99.727 | ~60-70 | 1 : 1 or better | | T2 | ~100.116 | ~100-120 | 1 : 1.5 or better | Scale out: Consider taking partial profits at T1. Let the remaining position run towards T2, potentially adjusting your stop-loss to breakeven or in profit. ⚙️ Trade Management Once the trade is in profit (e.g., reaching a certain pip gain or T1), consider moving your stop-loss to breakeven to protect your capital. Monitor price action around T1. If there are strong signs of selling pressure, consider closing the remaining position. Pay attention to any potential resistance levels or significant selling volume as price approaches your target levels. 🔑 Rationale Price is testing a recent swing low area, which has the potential to act as support. Increasing buying volume within the support zone suggests that buyers are stepping in. Bullish reversal patterns on lower timeframes would confirm the rejection of the support zone. Aiming for the previous swing high (~99.727) and the higher potential resistance (~100.116) provides logical profit targets. ⚡ Highlight: This is a bank-order-flow style fade, looking to buy at a potential support zone after a recent pullback, anticipating a reversal and continuation of potential upward momentum. The increasing buying volume within the support zone is a key observation.
TVC:DXYLong
by Delast2
Beware, the US dollar is at a technical crossroads 1) The US Dollar remains the weakest major Forex currency in 2025 The US dollar has had a difficult year on the foreign exchange market (Forex), recording a decline of over 9% against the world's major currencies, despite the Federal Reserve's continuing rigid monetary policy. Technically speaking, the DXY index has reached several theoretical bearish targets, notably according to Elliot analysis, but has not yet touched the key objective of the A=C movement. This dynamic is also evident in the strong chartist compression in weekly data, placing the USD at a potential breakout point. The EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs are also in long-term hinge configurations, and institutional positions remain broadly bearish on the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. Two interesting charts on the current situation are presented below: the first shows Japanese candlesticks in monthly data, and the second is a theoretical reminder of how Elliott waves work. As long as the US dollar against a basket of major currencies (DXY) remains below the indicated pivot line, the trend remains bearish, with a target of 95/96 points. Conversely, a rebound above the hinged pivot line would put an end to the US dollar's annual correction, with the starting point for a technical recovery. 2) A weakening dollar despite an inflexible Fed: how to explain this paradox? The apparent paradox of a falling US dollar while US interest rates remain high and the Fed does not expect to cut rates before September/October, goes beyond simple rate differentials. At a time when the ECB has already embarked on a policy of monetary easing, the rate differential with the Fed should normally support the USD. However, other factors are taking over: the markets' growing mistrust of US assets, fuelled by trade tensions and uncertainty over Trump's fiscal policy, is weakening demand for dollars. Added to this is a major liquidity factor: the recent increase in the money supply (M2) in the United States and the decline in reverse repo operations, which reflect an implicit easing of financial conditions. This easing is encouraging persistent downward pressure on the greenback, despite a Fed that remains intransigent on rates. The next release of US PCE inflation, scheduled for Friday May 30, could play an important catalytic role: a higher-than-expected figure would strengthen the case for an even firmer Fed, which could offer the USD a temporary technical rebound. Conversely, confirmation of disinflation would fuel bets on future easing and accentuate selling pressure. In short, the US dollar is not only at a technical crossroads, but also a fundamental one, suspended between forthcoming monetary action and deeper signals from the global liquidity market. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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TVC:DXY
by Swissquote
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 100.21 1st Support: 98.92 1st Resistance: 101.09 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
1
USD vying for Monthly Doji after April Support BounceMonthly charts are often underapprecaited by many retail traders. Sure, they're not very actionable as there's only 12 per year but they can do a great job of highlighting trends and broader market themes and, of interest for this scenario, possible turns. As a case in point, back in January the US Dollar had a full head of steam, and there was nary a bear in sight. But that month showed as a doji in the USD and in February, the tariff theme started to take over. It was a mild pullback that month but collectively, after two months of bulls stalling, many were ready to pull the plug and that's what showed in March and continued through April as the January doji led into a stern sell-off and fresh multi-year lows. In April, the USD was hit hard by a combination of tariff drama and trend continuation and a major spot of support eventually came into play around Easter Monday, taken from a trendline projection as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2022 major move. The bounce wasn't automatic, as there was a slow grind of higher-highs and higher-lows that got another boost around the FOMC rate decision earlier in May. That rally ran all the way until a major spot of resistance came into play at 102, at which sellers reacted. But at this point they've been stalled at another major spot on the chart of 98.98, which is helping to set a higher-low. And from the monthly chart, the USD is currently showing a doji on the monthly bar for May, which sets the table for a possible turn as we trade into the summer months. Key for this coming to fruition will be continued recovery in USD/JPY, which has had a major impact in the USD of late. And if we do see that theme of USD-strength continue, I still favor EUR/USD as a major pair of interest for that theme. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bouce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 100.17 1st Support: 97.91 1st Resistance: 101.93 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
DOLLARThe US Dollar Index (DXY) Yearly Support and Potential Sell-Off to 96 Zone: Role of 10-Year Bond Yields and Interest Rates 1. Technical Outlook: DXY Support Breakdown and 96$ Target and Critical Support Levels. The DXY recently breached the 200-week moving average (200-WMA), a key multi-year support level, signaling a potential trend reversal . A sustained break below 98.00 could trigger a steeper decline toward 96.00-95$ long-term uptrend ascending trendline acting as 6months support floor connecting 2008, 2011 and 2020, . However, analyst projections also highlight the 96–95 zone as a plausible target if Fed rate cuts and macroeconomic headwinds persist . Current Context (May 2025): The DXY is testing 98.4 on weekly charts, with bears eyeing lower supports amid weakening USD sentiment . A drop to ascending trend line on 6months would align with forecasts tied to Fed policy shifts and global currency strength . 2. 10-Year Bond Yield and Interest Rate Dynamics Direct Relationship with the Dollar: The 10-year Treasury yield and USD share a strong correlation: higher yields attract foreign capital, boosting dollar demand, while lower yields weaken the currency . As of May 2025, the 10-year yield hovers near 4.54%, down from peaks but still elevated compared to global peers . Impact of Rate Cuts and Policy Divergence: Fed Rate Expectations: Markets price in five Fed rate cuts by late 2025, which would reduce yield advantages and pressure the dollar . Policy Divergence: The ECB and BoJ are expected to maintain or ease policies, while the Fed delays cuts, temporarily supporting USD. However, prolonged easing could reverse this advantage . 3. Key Drivers of Dollar Weakness Toward 96-95 ascending trendline Bearish Factors: Yield Decline: A drop in the 10-year yield (e.g., due to Fed cuts or recession fears) would erode USD appeal. For every 1% decline in yields, the DXY could fall 3–5% . Risk Sentiment: A "soft landing" scenario or rally in risk assets (stocks, commodities) may reduce safe-haven USD demand . Tariff and Geopolitical Risks: Escalating US-China/EU trade tensions could weaken the USD if global growth fears dominate . Bullish Counterpoints: Hawkish Fed Surprises: Strong US data (e.g., inflation, jobs) may delay rate cuts, keeping yields and the dollar elevated . Safe-Haven Flows: Renewed geopolitical/market turmoil could revive USD demand despite lower yields . 4. Summary: Interplay Between Yields, Rates, and DXY Factor Impact on DXY 10-Year Yield Rises Strengthens USD (investor inflows) 10-Year Yield Falls Weakens USD (capital outflows) Fed Rate Cuts Pressures USD (narrows yield gap) ECB/BoJ Easing Supports USD (policy divergence) Path to 96: A combination of Fed rate cuts, declining 10-year yields, and stronger global currencies (EUR, JPY) could drive the DXY toward 96–95 . Reversal Risks: Hawkish Fed pivots or safe-haven demand amid crises may stall the decline. Conclusion The DXY’s potential drop to the 96–95 zone hinges on sustained declines in the 10-year Treasury yield and Fed rate cuts, compounded by technical breakdowns. While policy divergence and safe-haven flows offer temporary USD support, broader macroeconomic shifts (e.g., tariff risks, global growth) could accelerate the sell-off. Traders should monitor yields, Fed rhetoric, and technical levels on demand floor and supply roof for confirmation of bearish or bullish momentum
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
Highlighting the lagging inverse relationship BTC and DXY. This is crazy. And if it continues to play out, it means that higher is next. So what do we have here? This is highlighting the lagging inverse relationship BTC has had with DXY since Bitcoin bottomed and DXY topped. We can see that when DXY drops, BTC moves higher, but it has a lagging period beforehand. The crazy part is that this lag has been 119 days until BTC moves back up to its recent local high. EVERY single time. From there, BTC enters an expansive phase, and every time this has been between 49 and 56 days. Right now, we are right at that 119 day mark. Is this continues to play out, we’re heading into price expansion next week for at least 49 days. When you really dig into the charts you see that’s everything is actually very patterned and simple. What makes it hard is our emotion. Next week, expect volatility 🔥
TVC:DXY
by cryptofm369