DXY | Harmonic Patterns | Technical Analysis. Recovery Underway?TVC:DXY
Over recent sessions, I’ve been highlighting a critical zone for the TVC:DXY between $98.70 and $98.80 , where several important technical patterns are forming that could signal the start of a rebound after the recent decline.
➡️ The dollar broke below the Head and Shoulders neckline at $100.27 , hitting the default target I projected at $98.69 , which corresponds to the 200% Fibonacci extension. This is a classic confirmation of the breakdown and subsequent drop.
➡️ However, since reaching this level, the TVC:DXY has begun to form strong bullish patterns:
Bullish Crab Pattern at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, projected at $98.91
Bullish Alt-Bat Pattern at the 113% Fibonacci extension, at $98.80
These emerging bullish setups suggest a solid potential reversal, indicating that the TVC:DXY might be preparing to recover.
🎯 The default targets for these bullish patterns are around $99.95 , aligning with key resistance zones and Fibonacci confluence.
Summary: The TVC:DXY has completed the expected downward move from the Head and Shoulders pattern and is now showing clear technical signs of a possible reversal. The price action in the coming sessions will be critical to confirm whether the index can sustain this recovery toward higher levels.
Safe Traders,
André Cardoso
USDX trade ideas
$DXYThe U.S. dollar might face downward pressure as capital shifts into safer or high-demand assets:
💰 Stocks – High quality U.S. products still attract global demand.
🪙 Bitcoin – Emerging as digital reserves.
🥇 Gold – Classic portfolio leverage in times of uncertainty.
🇺🇸 U.S. Strategy – Dollar devaluation could be a smart move to attract foreign capital. Big market = big opportunity.
👉 The U.S. needs capital to grow. A weaker dollar might be the setup.
#Forex #DXY #Bitcoin #Gold #USMarkets #SmartMoneyMoves #TheMoneyAssociation
DOLLARDXY (US Dollar Index) and Bond Yield Relationship – May 2025
Current Market Situation
US Treasury Yields:
The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.54% (May 21, 2025), and the 30-year yield is testing the 5% level amid a global bond sell-off.
DXY (US Dollar Index):
The DXY and the 10-year yield are moving in sync again after a period of divergence earlier in 2025.
Relationship Dynamics
Positive Correlation:
Historically, the DXY and US bond yields (especially the 10-year yield) tend to move together. When yields rise, the dollar often strengthens, as higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns.
In recent weeks, this positive correlation has resumed after a brief disconnect in April, when yields surged but the dollar weakened due to shifting investor sentiment and US tariff policy.
Periods of Divergence:
In early April 2025, there was a notable divergence: yields climbed while the dollar fell, reflecting a rare episode where investors were wary of US assets despite higher returns, possibly due to concerns about US fiscal health and global trade tensions.
During that period, both US bonds and the dollar declined together, signaling a potential shift away from US assets and raising questions about the dollar’s structural appeal as a reserve currency.
Recent Realignment:
After the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting and a major tariff agreement with China, the DXY and yields began rising together again, indicating renewed confidence in US assets and a return to more typical market behavior.
Key Factors Influencing the Relationship
Fed Policy:
Expectations for future rate cuts or hikes directly influence both yields and the dollar. Higher expected rates generally support both.
Global Risk Sentiment:
In risk-off scenarios, the dollar can strengthen even if yields fall, due to safe-haven demand.
Trade and Fiscal Policy:
Tariffs and concerns about US debt sustainability can disrupt the usual correlation, as seen in early 2025.
Summary Table
Factor Impact on DXY Impact on Yields Typical Correlation
Rising US Yields Strengthens DXY Yields rise Positive
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Strengthens DXY Yields rise Positive
US Fiscal Concerns Can weaken DXY Yields may rise Can diverge
Global Risk Aversion Strengthens DXY Yields may fall Can diverge
Trade Tensions/Tariffs Mixed Mixed May disrupt correlation
Conclusion
As of May 2025, the DXY and US bond yields have resumed a positive correlation, both rising in response to Fed policy signals and improved risk sentiment following a major tariff agreement. However, earlier in the year, this relationship broke down due to concerns about US fiscal stability and shifting global investment flows. The interplay between DXY and yields remains sensitive to Fed policy, fiscal outlook, and geopolitical developments.
#DOLLAR #DXY
DXY watch 99.69: interesting number and a Major Fib for support DXY has been all over the place thanks to Trump.
That latest dip wave has hit a major fib at $99.69
This should offer some support if not a bottom.
We all know the implications of DXY movements.
Gold, Stocks, Crypto, all orbit the mighty Dollar.
Bulls need to mount a defense here and right now.
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DXY trade oulook.We have currently shifted structure to the bulls. Change of character @ 100.280, now we coming back for a retest of the OB/demand @ 99.910. Just above 99.910 we have equal lows/ liquidity ($). Once swept, looking for bullish sentiment to go long. If nothing comes, we will continue going down.
DOLLARThe relationship between the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bond yields in May 2025 reflects a complex and evolving dynamic influenced by fiscal concerns, trade policies, and investor sentiment:
Recent Trends:
U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 30-year yield briefly touching 5%, and the 10-year yield climbing above 4.5%, driven by concerns over rising U.S. debt and fiscal deficits following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Despite this rise in yields, the U.S. Dollar Index has weakened, dropping about 4% year-over-year, reflecting reduced confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Typical Relationship:
Normally, higher Treasury yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, which supports a stronger dollar. The dollar and bond yields often move in tandem, showing a positive correlation (around 0.5 over recent months). This was evident recently as the dollar strengthened alongside rising yields following a preliminary U.S.-China trade truce.
Current Anomalies:
However, in early 2025, this relationship weakened significantly. The dollar declined even as Treasury yields rose, signaling a loss of confidence in U.S. assets amid escalating trade tensions and concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy. This decoupling suggests investors are reconsidering the dollar’s role and are diversifying away from U.S. assets.
Market Sentiment and Risks:
The downgrade and rising deficits have increased fears about U.S. fiscal health, prompting some investors to sell U.S. assets, which pressures the dollar despite higher yields. Meanwhile, tariff policies and geopolitical risks contribute to volatility in both yields and the dollar.
Outlook:
The dollar and Treasury yields have recently realigned, moving more in sync again as trade optimism returned and the Fed maintained a steady policy stance. However, ongoing fiscal challenges and geopolitical uncertainties mean this relationship remains fragile.
Summary
Aspect Current Observation (May 2025)
Treasury Yields Rising (10-year ~4.5%, 30-year ~5%)
U.S. Dollar Index Weakened (~4% decline YTD)
Typical Correlation Positive (~0.5 correlation between dollar and yields)
Recent Anomaly Dollar fell while yields rose (early 2025)
Drivers of Anomaly Fiscal concerns, Moody’s downgrade, trade tensions
Market Sentiment Reduced confidence in U.S. assets and dollar
Outlook Re-alignment underway but fragile due to fiscal risks
In essence:
While U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar usually move together—higher yields supporting a stronger dollar—recent fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions have caused periods of divergence. Rising yields amid a weakening dollar reflect investor worries about U.S. debt sustainability and a potential shift away from the dollar’s reserve currency status. However, improving trade relations and Fed communication have recently brought the two back into closer alignment, though the relationship remains sensitive to evolving economic and political development
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView.
#dollar #dxy #gold
U.S. Dollar Index Set for Bearish Continuation The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has completed a five-wave impulse decline (labeled (1) through (5)) from the top of the descending channel. This downward move suggests a completed impulsive bearish leg. Following that, we’ve seen a complex corrective structure – a WXY double zigzag correction – now complete.
Price action shows a rejection from the upper trendline resistance near wave (2), confirming the bearish structure remains intact. The bounce into the corrective high (wave (2)) failed to break above key resistance, and we are now potentially entering a new impulsive move down labeled as wave (3) of the next larger degree impulse.
Primary Impulse Decline: Wave (1) to (5): Classic 5-wave move down ending late April.
Corrective Phase: Complex WXY correction (with subwaves A-B-C in both W and Y).
Current Wave in Play: Wave (3) of a larger impulsive sequence is initiating.
T1: 99.172
T2: 98.013
SL: 101.259
If price closes above 101.265 the current bearish impulse scenario would be invalidated.
DXY: Local Bullish Bias! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 99.946Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 100.223.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
US DOLLLAR INDEX - BY RICKO MMFXHumble greetings.
the above instrument is looking like a accumulating Bullish model, considering the recent fundamentals and catalysts behind the instrument I stalk longs in logical areas of the provided Weekly to Daily nearby structural ranges.
Should price in the 30 to 15 minute chart print out a Bullish Choch/Bullish playbook below the 4 hour internal low structure within the FVG and/or below for areas of origin I will be more confident going in for the kill.
DXY weekly outlookWeekly analysis for DXY: the broader bias remains bullish. I expect price to respect the stacked 3‑hour demand zones, with the lower zone likely providing the stronger reaction.
After that bounce, a short‑term bearish pullback could unfold from the 4‑hour supply zone. Although I don’t trade the dollar directly, I track DXY for its correlations with other pairs to add confluence and strengthen my setups.
$DXY Dump Incoming? What’s Next for Cryptos!TVC:DXY Dump Incoming? What’s Next for Cryptos!
The fractals in the chart are insane and indicate a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that can fuel significant moves in the crypto market:
Bitcoin & Altcoins Surge:
As the dollar weakens, cryptocurrencies become more attractive, expecting strong rallies in BTC and altcoins.
Commodities Rise:
Gold, silver, and oil typically gain, making crypto a competitor in the “store of value” race.
Risk-On Sentiment:
Investors shift to riskier assets like crypto, increasing prices.
Global FX Shift:
Other currencies gain strength, making crypto a go-to asset for global investors.
Bottom line: When the dollar drops, crypto thrives.
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Death of US Dollar – DXY Technical Analysis (SUPPLY & DEMAND)The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken its long-term parabolic uptrend and lost the key 100–104 support zone, which has now flipped into fresh supply after a clean retest—confirming a macro structural shift from bullish to bearish. Repeated rejections from the decades-old descending trendline and major supply around 111–114 mark the end of the dollar’s recent dominance. With no strong support until the 89.16 level—and deeper demand zones at 84 and even 76—DXY is likely entering a prolonged downtrend. This breakdown has global implications: easing dollar strength typically boosts risk assets, commodities, and emerging markets, while accelerating dedollarization narratives. For Bitcoin, this environment is historically bullish, potentially fueling the next crypto rally as capital rotates into scarce, decentralized assets amid weakening fiat confidence. Unless the dollar reclaims 104 on a monthly close, this marks the beginning of a macro bearish cycle for the USD.
the trap has layerswhat if i told you the dxy was not done yet,
what if i told you, there was 1 more push up,
1 more test before it truly breaks and starts a bull market.
what if i told you that on that final test, that final push up,
the crypto market breaks and takes everything.
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you probably wouldn't believe me.
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looking at the dxy as a simple zig-zag with a complex flat in the b-wave.
once wave b is completed, at about 110-111,
i predict it drops down, deep
and while it drops,
it triggers alt season.
🌙
MY SENTIMENTS ON THE DOLLAR FOR THE WEEKThe U.S. Dollar may find resistance around the 100.685 level, where it could fill the buy-side imbalance and react to the nearby bearish order block. If this level holds, we could see a continued decline throughout the week toward the psychological 100.00 level. Conversely, this would likely translate into a bullish move for the EUR/USD, reflecting the inverse correlation.