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Altseason and a Weak Dollar — Will History Repeat in 2025?The altseason of 2017 started at the same time as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) began to fall. This likely helped bring more money into the crypto market. In 2020–2021, a similar thing happened: the falling dollar was followed by a strong rise in altcoins. But that time, altseason started closer to the end of the dollar’s decline. A weaker dollar makes risky assets like crypto more attractive. In April 2020, the total crypto market cap was around $218 billion. Today, it’s about $2.63 trillion — around 12 times bigger. However, to start a new altseason now, the market may need a lot more cheap money than in 2020. I’m not sure if the 2025 altseason can be as strong as in the past. Now it seems that the only way to repeat that success is if a big part of the capital moves from Bitcoin into altcoins. This would need a sharp drop in Bitcoin dominance. But this brings new questions. After the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, the ownership structure has changed. Many people now own Bitcoin through investment funds, not directly. These funds may not be very excited to invest in altcoins. What do you think about it? Share your opinion in the comments.
TVC:DXY
by CapitalHustle
USD Price Action Correlation with Bitcoin PriceIn the later stages of the liquidity cycle you have a devaluation of USD leading to bitcoin breaking out of its bullish trend into a parabolic trend. -Last 2 cycles this predictive correlation leaded bitcoins breakout by 4 to 6 months. -Current cycle DXY/Bitcoin charts look very similar to 2018 Taking this correlation into account, we could likely see the bullish trend on Bitcoin transform into a parabolic trend sometime between May and June. Meaning, we are in the final stages of a bottoming in Bitcoin at the time of this post, likely about to continue bullish momentum as we just went through significate market strain. Removing the possibilities of another Black Swan event, like a major geopolitical event but it is my belief that this was already priced in from the markets reaction just this month. This being said, there are no certainties. Things could always get worse. Time will tell, but given my aforementioned annalists, the buying opportunity at this current point is to great to ignore. Reward greatly outweighing the risk.
TVC:DXYLong
by merchtank19
Despite long-term support, the dollar is eyeing deeper watersAlthough the US Dollar (USD) Index has connected with a monthly support area between 98.72 and 99.67, April’s lower low at 99.01 reached levels not seen since early 2022 and price crossing below the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at 101.91 potentially questions this support zone. Bolstering the likelihood of additional downside in the USD are the daily and H4 charts. The former exhibits scope to reach support at 98.58 (and formed a Death Cross ), while the latter completed a bearish pennant pattern (ruptured the lower boundary), extended from 100.64 and 99.01. As you can see, H4 action is currently retesting the underside of the breached pattern’s border. In view of the above technical surroundings, USD shorts could have some gas left in the tank.
TVC:DXYShort
by FPMarkets
DeGRAM | DXY dropped below 100 pointsDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines. On the downside, the price has formed a gap and dropped below 100 pips and has already reached the lower trend line. The chart maintains a descending structure but has already formed a harmonic pattern and a descending wedge. On the major timeframes, the index relative strength is in the oversold zone and on the 30m Timeframe it is forming a bullish convergence. We expect a reversal after a support retest. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
TVC:DXYLong
by DeGRAM
2
USD index bearish trendThe analyst expects the correction to end when the USDX reaches a value of 101.800. This is the predicted target for the end of the "C" wave of the correction. Once the index hits 101.800 (according to this analysis), the correction is expected to be complete, and the USDX may then resume its previous (likely upward) trend. In short: The USDX is expected to fall to 101.800 to finish a temporary price dip (correction) that's shaped like an ABC pattern.
TVC:DXYShort
by Ibrahim1984
top is in for the dxygm, this idea has been in the works for years, ever since we topped out 3 years ago. there has been quite a bit of variations of this idea, but this one right here has been my primary idea for a very long time. initially i imagined the dxy coming up to 111-113 before topping out, and i reckon it still can, but the worst is behind us, relatively speaking. --- if my count here is correct, the dxy will begin extending down into wave c into the last days of 2025 where a major low will be put in place . this will create a hyper-parabolic bull phase for risk assets, in conjunction with declining rates. --- if you've been waiting for a signal to buy alts this is your signal. 🌙 --- ps. view my private idea from last year via: 🌙
TVC:DXYShort
by notoriousbids
How far could the USD fall?.. WATCH THE DOLLAR INDEXThe dollar is declining as US uncertainty continues and cash moves out of the US. I personally think the dollar will bounce, but how far could it fall in the meantime... Price is testing the previous monthly horizontal resistance as support and the monthly 100 SMA. The dollar may find a bottom here. From 98 to 100 on TVC:DXY Price may reach the monthly bullish channel support. There will likely be technical buyers in this area. From 95 to 96 on TICKMILL:DXY Good luck!
TVC:DXYLong
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
DXY Will Fall! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 99.769. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 96.117 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
The Great Long. DXY LIQUIDITY GAME.We knowgood old SEC days are coming, Fed Pivot is coming and a strong dollar is coming with it. But for now Let me explain you this chart. The chart is on a weekly timeframe but all the points of interest and liquidity can be perfectly seen on the monthly as well. I want to show you how price moves from liquidity zone to liquidity zone touching specific areas no matter what. Following all the red lines that are previous highs that the price made (liquidity) and the low from July 2023. For me this chart is pure art, this is the game I look for when daytrading, but for this being on a weekly/monthly chart is just mesmerizing. This previous -10% drop from Jan-Feb till today, comes from a very specific point in the chart. And the +15% pump that I see, is coming from a very specific point as well. As you can see this drop comes after liquidating several highs (sellside liquidity) on the way to a predominant imbalance that respected perfectly. What I want to say is that price follow liquidity first then touches a specific zone and respects it. Now, we have the same scenario but now we have targeted July 2023 low and a weekly imbalance. A significant low has been triggered and a point of interest has been fille. Fed Pivot is coming and we expect to see a strong dollar in the long run. I think this is just the perfect point in the chart for direction to shift and to start to price-in what is about to come. Last monday (Black Monday) was a climatic point. Events bring the volatility for price to make it where it has to, I think this is the turning point. I hope you enjoyed the content this is NOT Financial advice. I just want this analysis and info to be here.
TVC:DXYLong
by TheHardestEasiestWay
Dixie 41625Still in a long term uptrend and testing the lower range of its rising channel. Uncertainty may bring short term vol to the downside . But once the world understands that this is a global crisis. Dollar will once again gain strength against all others, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, Swiss Franc. The dollar will rip to new highs and continue its golden retrace target. Bitcoin down, which ive said. Gold and silver continue marching up. Real things hold stable and are the only true stores of value.
TVC:DXY
by BrandonrG
Bullish IntradayPrice made a higher high at 99.836, breaking the previous lower high. This suggests a potential shift in structure to bullish. Buy Stops Above Highs: The high at 99.836 likely took out buy stops from traders expecting a breakout above 100.000. ICT emphasizes that smart money often hunts liquidity above equal highs or below equal lows. Bearish Order Block: The green box around 99.750–99.800 (before the drop to 99.500) acts as a bearish order block. This is a zone where institutional selling occurred, leading to the sharp decline. Price briefly retested this zone before rejecting it, confirming its significance. Last scenario would be, Pullback and Reversal: A likely ICT setup would be a pullback to the 99.650 pivot or the 99.500 bullish order block, followed by a move higher to target liquidity above 100.000.
TVC:DXYLong
by ObakengNthoiwa
How to Trade the Tariff Turmoil: Markets Now Move on HeadlinesMarkets in 2025 have become increasingly unpredictable, largely driven by one factor: tariffs. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy has shaken investor confidence and turned global markets into a rollercoaster. The key to navigating this new environment? Understand that markets are no longer just reacting to economic data—they’re reacting to headlines. The biggest shock came on April 2, when Trump announced a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports and “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of other countries. The reaction was immediate: the S&P 500 dropped nearly 15% at its lowest point that week, and investors rushed to sell risk assets. Days later, markets sharply reversed after Trump temporarily suspended some tariffs. That sparked a rally—tech stocks soared, Apple rose 5%, and the Nasdaq gained over 2%. But the relief was short-lived. Conflicting messages and partial rollbacks continued to send markets up and down. Earlier, on March 4, tariffs were placed on Canada and Mexico, while China’s rates were doubled. These moves led to more selling in stocks and a spike in demand for bonds. By mid-April, exemptions for electronics boosted tech names again, but overall market sentiment remained fragile. How to Trade This New Market The main lesson for traders and investors is clear: We’re now in a headline-driven market. Traditional strategies that rely solely on fundamentals or economic cycles are being overshadowed by sudden political developments. Here’s how to adapt: Stay Nimble and News-Aware Be ready for fast moves. Market direction can flip in minutes based on a single press conference or tweet. Have alerts set for major geopolitical and tariff-related headlines. Reduce position sizes during uncertainty and avoid holding large trades through major announcements. Rethink Your Safe Havens The U.S. dollar is no longer acting like the safe haven it used to be. With rising fiscal concerns and volatile trade policy, investors are shifting toward alternatives. Gold and the Swiss franc (CHF) have become more reliable options during risk-off moments. If uncertainty spikes, these assets may offer better protection than the dollar. Focus on Sectors Sensitive to Policy Tech stocks have been among the most affected. Tariff exemptions caused sharp rallies, while new restrictions triggered big drops. If you trade sectors like tech, consumer goods, or industrials, stay especially alert for trade-related headlines. Bottom line: In 2025, geopolitics is moving markets more than ever. The old playbook needs updating. By staying flexible, tracking headlines, and turning to traditional safe havens like gold and CHF, traders can better navigate the noise—and find opportunity in the chaos.
TVC:DXY
by Jacques1000
1
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Key Resistance & Bearish Target Analys📊 Key Observations: 🔵 Resistance Zone (📍~103.5 Level) A strong resistance area (🔵 blue box) is marked, indicating potential selling pressure if the price reaches this level. The price is moving upwards (📈) towards this resistance, so watch for rejection or breakout. 🔵 Support/Target Zone (📍~101.5 Level) A lower support zone (🔵 blue box) is marked as the bearish target 🎯. If the price fails at resistance, it may head downwards (📉) to this level. 📉 Recent Price Action: 🚀 Sharp drop followed by a rebound (📈). The price is currently moving back up (🔼), possibly forming a lower high before another drop. 📌 Exponential Moving Average (DEMA 9 - 102.488) The price is hovering above the 9-period DEMA (📏), showing short-term bullish momentum. If the price rejects resistance and falls below the DEMA, a bearish continuation (📉) is likely. 🚀 Potential Scenarios: ✅ Bullish Breakout: If price breaks above 🔵 resistance, it may continue rising (📈) to higher levels. ❌ Bearish Rejection: If price fails at resistance, expect a drop (📉) towards 101.5 🎯.
TVC:DXYShort
by Jameshead007
4
DXY FORECAST Q1 FY25 : zim dollar dollarBack again with a TVC:DXY doomsday post my judgement at the moment is based of the following reasonings. 📉 Tariffs & Global Trade Impact Tariffs weaken trade activity: If the U.S. imposes tariffs, it might reduce export competitiveness and disrupt global supply chains. That can lead to lower foreign demand for U.S. dollars, putting downward pressure on the DXY. Market uncertainty: Investors often move away from riskier assets during trade wars, but if confidence in the U.S. economy declines, they might shift into other safe havens (like gold or the Swiss franc) instead of dollars. 💰 Money Supply Contraction Dollar scarcity effect: The contraction in M2 money supply could strengthen the dollar temporarily due to reduced liquidity. However, if the Fed eases monetary policy to counter recession fears, it might reverse the effect, weakening the dollar. 📊 Inflation & Real Interest Rates Sticky inflation: If inflation remains above target (around 2.9%), and tariffs drive consumer prices higher, the Fed may face pressure to hold or hike interest rates — which could eventually support the dollar. Recession signals: On the flip side, if the economy contracts, rate cuts could come into play, flooding markets with liquidity and pushing the dollar down. in my opinion the shrinking money supply points to future deflationary pressures, which historically support the dollar however disruptive trade policies could destabilize growth, undercutting the dollar’s strength. If tariffs intensify and growth stalls, the dollar may stay weak or decline further despite the contracting money supply. But if the Fed stays firm on inflation control and global instability rises, the dollar could rebound as a safe haven... though this would depend on whether markets believe the U.S. can avoid a full-blown recession. Like Comment Follow Tip Gift its appreciated for more serious work like this.
TVC:DXYShort
by Bekiumuzi_Dube
DXY Squeeze Incoming? Watch 99.00 ReactionFundamental Analysis: The TVC:DXY has weakened as recent data shows GDP growth slowing to 2.4%, inflation cooling to 2.4%, and unemployment rising to 4.2%, increasing expectations of potential Fed rate cuts despite rates holding at 4.5%. Investor confidence has also dropped, with consumer sentiment at 50.8, and the trade deficit still wide at $123B, signaling softer economic momentum. 📉 Projection: Continued soft data could keep the dollar under pressure unless the Fed reinforces a hawkish stance. ⚠️ Risk Level: A strong upside surprise in inflation or employment data could reverse sentiment and push DXY higher abruptly. Technical Analysis: DXY is currently hovering around 99.65, just above a key support zone near 99.00 (PWL), where a potential liquidity grab may occur. The RSI is near 30, signaling oversold conditions, which often precede a short-term bounce. 📈 Projection: If price holds above 99.00, a rebound toward the 100.91 gap and possibly 103.19 (PWH) is likely. ⚠️ Risk Level: A clean break below 99.00 would invalidate the bullish setup and open the way to 97.50–98.00.
TVC:DXYLong
by rTrader_official