The best strategies if the US dollar rebounds this summerFor several months now, the US dollar (DXY) has been under pressure against the major currencies, falling by over 11% since the start of the year. However, technical and fundamental signals suggest that a low point could be reached this summer. In this scenario, it is essential to measure the possible consequences on the markets and anticipate the best strategies to protect or boost your portfolio.
At this stage, the US dollar has not confirmed a major low, but it will eventually happen, so it's important to anticipate the consequences for all asset classes, and identify the best strategies to implement at an early stage, particularly on Forex.
In this new analysis in the TradingView columns, we ask a number of questions, including the impact on gold, the price of bitcoin and Forex vehicles for exposure to a possible rebound in the US dollar.
1) On the technical front, many of the bearish targets have been made
The first point to watch is the technical configuration. The DXY is now evolving on long-term support levels, with divergences indicating that the downtrend is running out of steam. Indicators such as the RSI and MACD show that selling pressure is weakening on the weekly timeframe. The monthly uptrend line is still active, although the signal varies according to the scale chosen. It's still too early to say that the US dollar has made its final low, but it's worth bearing in mind that most of the bearish technical targets in Elliott waves have been made.
2) If the US dollar were to rebound this summer, what impact would this have on gold and the bitcoin price?
Secondly, a rebound in the dollar would have a direct impact on other asset classes. Gold is influenced by several fundamental factors, notably its inverse correlation with the US dollar and the impact of GOLD ETFs, which are themselves closely linked to the underlying trend in the US dollar. Overall, we believe that if the US dollar were to rebound, gold would lose a good third of its bullish fundamentals. The table below summarizes the factors influencing gold's underlying trend.
Crypto-currencies, and Bitcoin in particular, could also be penalized by a stronger dollar and a contraction in global liquidity (M2). The US dollar plays a very direct role in the calculation of M2 global liquidity, and the bitcoin price is highly correlated with the underlying trend in M2 global liquidity. This indicator, which aggregates the money supply of the major economies converted into US dollars, generally acts on bitcoin with an average lag of around 12 weeks. The latest statistics show a new all-time high for this global liquidity.
This factor is helping to sustain the upward trend observed since April, despite a complex fundamental context marked by a Federal Reserve determined to maintain a restrictive monetary policy in the short term.
The US dollar, by strengthening or weakening, directly modifies the total value of M2 expressed in dollars.
This contributes to the extent of global liquidity and, consequently, to the evolution of bitcoin. Consequently, if the US dollar rebounds this summer, expect a bearish impact on BTC from this autumn onwards.
3) If the US dollar rebounds this summer, what are the best Forex strategies to consider?
Finally, on a practical level, there are several strategies to consider. On Forex, a dollar rebound scenario calls for monitoring major pairs such as EUR/USD, in order to identify selling entry points if a top is confirmed.
But the most direct and unleveraged way to gain exposure to the US dollar (DXY) is through ETFs. Should the US dollar rebound, then exposure to a US dollar (DXY) ETF may be a good strategy. Unlike futures and CFDs, there's no leverage, so it allows for better risk management.
We also suggest that you keep a close eye on the USD/CAD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD currency pairs in the event of a summer rebound scenario for the US dollar against a basket of major currencies.
We will continue to bring you regular analysis on the US dollar to determine whether or not a major low will emerge this summer.
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USDX trade ideas
Water point of view, the dollar needs a small shock rise after fWater point of view, the dollar needs a small shock rise after falling too much, slow down and continue to fall............
It was pulled up to the upper boundary before, and the decline was smooth and fast. What should I do if the decline is too fast? Slow down
Continue to see the decline, the trillion-dollar debt of the United States is a big pit, depreciation will prolong life
US Dollar Index (DXY) - 4 Hour Chart4-hour chart from CAPITALCOM displays the recent performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY), showing a current value of 98.190 with a slight decline of 0.009 (-0.01%). The chart highlights key price levels, including a recent sell signal at 98.189 and a buy signal at 98.243, with a resistance zone marked between 98.195 and 98.479. The index has experienced fluctuations, with notable drops and recoveries, and is currently trending near the 98.190 level as of July 29, 2025.
DXY LOCAL SHORT|
✅DXY is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 98.948
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target of 98.451
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY at Its Most Critical Level of 2025 — Will the 100 Bank LevelThe Dollar Index (DXY), just like several other majors, is approaching a very important level. We’re now near the 100 mark, which is not only a psychological level — but also a key institutional (bank) level.
There’s also a gap zone left behind that price is about to fill. I believe the index will stay in a range over the next 1–2 days as it waits for critical data later this week — especially Wednesday’s announcements and Friday’s NFP report, which could set the tone for what’s next.
Based on current market sentiment, Trump’s remarks, Powell’s upcoming speech, and broader macro factors, I believe DXY has the potential to break above 100 and move toward 102–104, if that level is broken cleanly.
Let’s also not forget — price bounced from a monthly demand block near 96, and we’re seeing weak support across majors like EUR and Gold. That adds confluence for potential dollar strength.
📌 What do you think — is dollar strength just around the corner?
🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion.
Key Events That Could Shape the Dollar This Week🇺🇸 Key Events That Could Shape the Dollar This Week
Three major catalysts are on the radar for USD traders:
📊 ADP Employment Report
💰 Advance GDP (Q2)
🧠 Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
Additionally, ongoing trade developments with the EU may add to volatility.
📊 1. ADP Employment Report
The July ADP report is forecast to show 82K job additions. While this may seem consistent with recent NFP strength, several red flags suggest growing labor market weakness:
Decline in labor force participation
Slowing wage growth
Emerging contraction signals in the services sector
Even if ADP meets expectations, it may not reflect broad-based labor market health. Historically, ADP and NFP have often diverged—so the market reaction may be muted unless the data surprises meaningfully.
💰 2. Advance GDP (Q2)
Q2 GDP is expected to show modest growth, possibly supported by:
Higher tariff revenues boosting government income
A weaker dollar improving export competitiveness
Reduced imports due to elevated import costs
However, much of this growth is likely nominal rather than real. With inflation remaining sticky, headline GDP may be inflated by price effects rather than true economic expansion. Real GDP could remain flat or weak.
🧠 3. Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
This is arguably the most market-sensitive event of the week.
Goldman Sachs and other major banks believe the recent resilience in U.S. data lowers the chances of a rate cut at this meeting. However, political dynamics could add nuance:
With Donald Trump actively campaigning—and reportedly pressuring the Fed to ease rates to boost exports and growth—Powell may face a fine balancing act in his tone.
Markets will dissect every word for clues on future policy.
🌐 U.S.-EU Trade Developments
The U.S. recently announced a new trade agreement with the EU, including a 15% tariff on selected European imports.
In the short term, this could be dollar-supportive, as it:
Favors domestic producers
Reduces reliance on imports
Potentially improves the trade balance
Yet over the longer term, such tariffs can be inflationary and disrupt global supply chains—possibly complicating the Fed’s decision-making.
⚠️ Final Thought
In times of policy uncertainty, markets lose their predictability.
Tariffs, in particular, often have a stronger and more immediate impact than calendar-based economic data.
As a result, traders must monitor trade-related news and tariff decisions just as closely—if not more—than traditional economic releases in order to stay ahead of market direction and central bank decisions.
DXY: The Graceful Short This is interesting…Ever since the birth of Bitcoin, the DXY was in an overall uptrend, but that uptrend may have ended in the resistance zone. Price seems to have reversed for the DXY especially after the formation of a bearish engulfing candle on the 6M timeframe. Price may end the year within or on top of the support zone.
What does this mean for crypto and other assets?
If the DXY has reversed and is now in a long term down trend, crypto currencies and other assets will be in long term uptrends! Bitcoin may skip its upcoming bearish year next year or more than likely the bearish year will happen but the retracement may be short. Stay tuned!
$BTC's run to ATH is fueled by $DXYNOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
I've yet to see this being mentioned anywhere on the internet, but TVC:DXY 's rally may just be CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's best friend.
This, despite the popular notion that when TSX:DXT goes up, CRYPTOCAP:BTC goes down, and vice-versa.
However, this novel idea puts a break to it.
TVC:DXY is hitting the bottoms of its uptrending channel, and it's likely to bounce back up towards the ceilings.
Which means a rally is likely, and this is kinda good for $BTC.
I'll remain bullish, until the numbers say otherwise.
DXYThe current COT data shows a bullish bias for the U.S. Dollar, with institutional traders positioning net long. Although DXY is moving sideways, this positioning suggests a likely continuation of USD strength. If price breaks above key resistance levels, it would confirm the bullish sentiment reflected in the COT report.
EURUSD heading for a bearish dropThere is a valid supply zone having a financial move that broke structure. looking properly at the left hand side of the supply zone there is no structural liquidity, so the supply zone is expected to fail before the sells, or create some form of liquidity around the supply zone.
Kindly follow Structure, POI, liquidity and can scale down to m5 for sniper entry and apply proper risk management.
### **Bearish Analysis of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)**### **Bearish Analysis of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)**
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has recently shown a weak trend, with a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market. The primary factors driving this outlook include:
### **1. Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts**
- Recent weak U.S. inflation data (such as May's PPI and CPI) have reinforced market expectations that the Fed may cut rates as early as September.
- Morgan Stanley predicts the Fed could implement a cumulative 175 basis points in rate cuts by 2025, further reducing the dollar's appeal.
### **2. Trade Policy Uncertainty**
- The Trump administration has recently threatened new tariffs (e.g., 30% on imports) against the EU, Mexico, and other nations, escalating global trade tensions.
- Wall Street institutions warn that Trump’s tariff policies could trigger capital outflows, putting additional pressure on the dollar.
### **3. Growing Recession Concerns**
- Fears of a U.S. economic "hard landing" are intensifying, particularly due to deteriorating corporate orders, earnings forecasts, and capital expenditure plans, which could weaken the dollar’s safe-haven status.
- The expanding U.S. fiscal deficit (reaching $1.36 trillion this fiscal year) is further eroding confidence in the dollar.
### **4. Technical Weakness**
- Since the beginning of 2025, DXY has fallen by approximately **8.4%**, marking its worst annual start on record.
- The index currently faces key resistance at the **97.80-98.00** range. A failure to break above this level could lead to further declines toward **96.50** or lower.
- RSI and MACD indicators suggest weak short-term rebound momentum, maintaining a bearish bias.
### **5. Risk of Capital Outflows**
- The U.S. "**899 Asset Tax**" proposal could increase costs for foreign investors holding dollar-denominated assets, potentially accelerating global divestment from the dollar.
- Goldman Sachs estimates that the dollar remains **overvalued by ~15%**, leaving room for further depreciation.
### **Outlook**
In the near term, DXY’s movement will depend on:
- **June CPI Data** (A lower-than-expected reading could reinforce rate cut expectations, further weakening the dollar).
- **Trade Negotiation Developments** (Escalating tensions may trigger risk-off sentiment, while easing could relieve dollar pressure).
- **Fed Policy Signals** (More explicit dovish guidance could extend the dollar’s downtrend).
**Conclusion:** Given multiple bearish factors, the U.S. Dollar Index is likely to remain weak in the short term. Traders should closely monitor key economic data and policy shifts.
DXY REBOUNDS AFTER FORMING A DIVERGENCE!DXY rebounds after forming a divergence! Technically, we approach a pullback resistance level. What do we expect next from DXY? Is this gonna be a new era of dollar strength? From the technical standpoint, if we get a break above 99.202 we’re likely to see more bullish strength development away from this market.
deepseek→→U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Recent Analysis and Outlookchina deepseek↓↓
### **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Recent Analysis and Outlook**
#### **1. Current Market Trends and Driving Factors**
- **Trade Policies Boost the Dollar**: U.S. President Trump recently announced new tariffs on Canada (35%), the EU, and Mexico (30%), triggering risk-off sentiment and pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) from 97.20 to around 98.00.
- **CPI Data as a Key Variable**: The U.S. June CPI data, released today (July 15), will influence market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Stronger-than-expected inflation could reinforce the dollar's rally, while weak data may weaken it.
- **Shift in Market Sentiment**: Unlike the "dollar sell-off" trend in early 2025, recent market reactions have leaned toward treating the dollar as a "safe-haven asset" rather than selling it solely due to trade war concerns.
#### **2. Technical Analysis**
- **Key Resistance and Support Levels**:
- **Resistance**: 97.80-98.00 (short-term critical range). A breakout could test 98.50 or even 99.00.
- **Support**: 97.50 (50-day moving average). A drop below may target 96.38 (June low).
- **Technical Indicators**:
- **MACD**: A golden cross has formed on the daily chart, but it remains below the zero line, suggesting the current rebound may still be corrective.
- **RSI**: Near the 50 neutral zone, not yet overbought, indicating room for further upside.
#### **3. Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook**
- **Short-Term (1-2 Weeks)**:
- **Bullish Scenario**: If CPI data is strong and DXY breaks above 98.20, it could challenge 98.50-99.00.
- **Bearish Scenario**: Weak CPI data or progress in trade talks may push DXY back to 97.30-96.50.
- **Long-Term (Second Half of 2025)**:
- **Structural Pressures Remain**: Despite the short-term rebound, the dollar still faces long-term challenges, including widening U.S. fiscal deficits, de-dollarization trends, and concerns over Fed independence.
- **Historical Trend**: After falling over 10% in the first half of 2025, DXY may continue its downtrend in the second half, though the pace of decline could slow.
#### **4. Key Risk Factors**
- **Fed Policy**: If CPI data reinforces a "higher-for-longer" rate outlook, the dollar may strengthen further. Conversely, rising rate-cut expectations could weigh on the dollar.
- **Geopolitics and Trade Talks**: Compromises from the EU or Mexico could reduce safe-haven demand, while failed negotiations may fuel further dollar gains due to risk aversion.
### **Conclusion**
The DXY is at a critical juncture, with short-term direction hinging on CPI data and trade policy developments. Technicals lean bullish, but long-term fundamentals remain challenging. Traders should closely monitor the 98.00 breakout and today’s CPI data impact.
Dollar holds steady uptrend despite Trump’s tariff threats.
President Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from both the EU and Mexico, a hike from the 20% previously imposed on the EU in April. He also warned that if no agreement is reached on the Ukraine war within 50 days, countries trading with Russia could face a 100% tariff.
Meanwhile, market volatility is being amplified by speculation over Fed Chair Powell’s potential dismissal, as attacks against him intensify from Trump and his allies. Deutsche Bank warned that Powell’s removal could trigger sharp swings in both the dollar and bond markets.
DXY has extended its two-week rally after testing the recent low, approaching the 98.00 threshold. The index remains within the ascending channel, indicating the potential continuation of bullish momentum. If DXY breaches above the resistance at 98.25, the index could gain upward momentum toward 98.60. Conversely, if DXY breaks below the support at 97.60, the index may retreat to 97.00.
Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 50% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 97.81
1st Support: 97.19
1st Resistance: 99.25
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Dollar looks ready to blast off...we'll see if its a risk assetBasic, strength and pattern analysis. Dollar appears to be completing its Primary A wave of a cyclical correction. Strength has built up, the pattern looks right, and leave it to a large magnitude A wave to complete in a no man's land of Fib support...(ABC extension corrective not pictured).
I would expect a run back up to the Intermediate B over the next 6-8 months, and maybe even higher. One more low is possible, but not necessary...neither from a pattern perspective, nor from a strength perspective, although I have a little extension box below in green, and if it is to extend, that is the target.