VIX setting up for a Santa Rally?I've spent a lot of time drawing on the VIX chart today since we are coming up on an area that defines 3 separate ascending wedge patterns with one starting before the 2020 run that we have tapped twice without making a lower low. And although that lower trendline is still quite a way down, currently at 16.57, it's not a far stretch if retail sales come out strong, JP keeps quiet, and there are plans for a Santa rally lurking behind the scenes. With that being said, we have just broken the next oldest pattern, and the youngest one not much farther down at 19.66 and the .86 fib of the 2020 run up is smack in the middle at 20.13 so for tomorrow, I have potential reversal area from 20.44 to 20.13 with 20.13 to 19.71 becoming bearish down to below 19. My argument for the upside is a bit more hocus pocus as I had to put on a pitchfork to even feel good about it, but we made the inside candle Friday, which, big deal, it was a half day, but following that with an outside candle on a retail rich week wouldn't shock me at all. So I'm gonna throw my dart. If we gap up, we hit around 21.30 and come back down to close between 19.89 and 20.13 in which case the case for breaking down past 19.66 becomes more likely. SANTA RALLY!!! But, if we gap down into that bounce zone and don't break the 20.13, then we still close high and and head back to Wednesdays high. I like this case more if we bounce off the Daily low and just double bottom. BUT, I'm still leaning to a high of 22.30 on the WEEK, just because I feel like the case is better stated for a downside overall. We just have much more reason to pull back down with the biggest reason being that we haven't retested that 2020 pattern for over a year. Historically I don't see any rhyme or reason except that VIX does tend to rise during December if only for a day, and even that isn't well structured. Sooo... who the knows then the VIX is gonna VIX. What we do know is that we have spent so much time in what used to be high volatilely territory that we've started to make a home here and that contradicts what the VIX is designed to do. We've held above averages, between $10-20, for more days and gone higher than we did in the '08 housing crisis, and all while our economy is too strong for its own good. So we've either become fairly melodramatic, OR we're setting up residence. If the latter is true then we can just throw out all historical data that predates circa 2018 and start anew. I personally want to see what happens if we break down below 16.50. Do we stabilize and go back to a boring trend style value market? Or does everyone freak out and rabidly buy everything in sight. All we can do is wait, and look to the right.
VIX trade ideas
$VIX Can Rise Soon - Watch Out #VIXTraders and Investors, US Indices have had a good rally. Dow Jones has been the leading one which printed the one of the biggest 3M bullish engulfing candles ever. SnP500 is also creating 3M bullish engulfing bit has been lagging behind the US30. NASDAQ (NAS100) is the lagging behind at the last spot. Russell 2000 has been also printing a bullish engulfing candle on the 3m Time frame. On the other hand, in the UK, UK100 (FTSE100) also has been going really strong. US30 did not have a single stock in a bearish category since 12th of October 2022! This also has broken an important level and trend line. It is overextended at the moment and a correction could be due. This has a perfect confluence with VIX (Volatility Index) which currently is in a demand zone and an FCP zone.
VIX can still fall further down because a pattern before failed, and a trend line was broken which makes it more bearish. But for now, a bounce could be due because of the demand zone. This can produce a bounce to the upside which can also coincide with corrections across indices and possibly precious metals too.
As we enter the last week of November, we can expect some good moves in the market which can turn into short term trading opportunities.
US30: (3M Time Frame)
US500: (3M Time Frame)
US100 (3M Time Frame)
UK100 (3M Time Frame)
RUSSELL2000 (3M Time Frame)
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VOLATILITY INDEX Support Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
VOLATILITY INDEX has been falling
For a long time now and I think
That the index is oversold
So after the retest of the
Support level below
The price is likely to
Retest the resistance above
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
$VIX Analysis, Key Levels and Targets$VIX Analysis, Key Levels and Targets
VIX was totally crushed, y’all… but vix hates to leave open gaps… it’s truly an amazing thing…. Usually one of the first things I check in the morning is whether there’s a gap from the session before and it says a lot… usually vix doesn’t take this long to fill gaps… this one was opened August 19th…
Market Update 11/24/22: VIX FocusedPretty much were back to the big averages that we were around during the august 16th and 17th drop.
I try to keep it brief in this video.
If I HAD to guess, I would say the market will move back down soon based on the VIX. A big break in a 5 year trend would be for the VIX to drop under 17.50 and start a new week or month candle under that level.
Take care.
Lower and LowerGenerally, the VIX Index tends to have an inverse relationship with the S&P 500 Index. This negative correlation has earned the VIX Index the title "fear gauge" because VIX Index has a tendency to move up quickly when the broad market declines with velocity.
Right now the VIX is getting lower and the market is moving up.
The comparison between the VIX Index and movement in the S&P 500 Index is close, about an 80% correlation, which confirms the reality of the two generally tending to move in opposite directions most of the time. In addition, the correlation generally tends to remain relatively stable throughout different market conditions.
No recommendation
🔥 The VIX Daily RSI Hit Oversold For The First Time Since 2004As the title suggests, the VIX (the volatility index on the SP500) has hit oversold (<30) on the daily RSI for the first time since December 2004. Scroll back and see for yourself.
A falling VIX is generally accompanied by bullish markets, while a rising VIX is often accompanied by bearish markets. If you wish to know more about the VIX, Investopedia has a great article on it.
In my view, it's highly likely that the VIX will be reversing very soon, which will most likely lead to a bearish reaction of the stock markets and therefore crypto. If you're planning to take risky long bets, consider postponing this. An oversold VIX only adds more risk to the trade.
$VIX filled gap, NOW WHAT?!Buy on rumor
Sell on news
REMEMBER THAT!
Feds gave lil gift - No one wants to rattle this time of year
OK, $VIX did what we expected
GAP FILLED
Now WHAT?
We wait to be sure that "top" is in, again
BUT until we get DIRECTION, can nibble here & there
@ Symmetrical Triangle support
🚨 We break Long Term = NEW BULL
#VIX $SPX $SPY #stocks
(GBPUSD) Wed, 23 November 2022 SetupOANDA:GBPUSD
GBPUSD Neutral bias
Status: Open short position and waiting for breakeven confirmation
What do I see?
- VIX could go bullish as it's on its major Daily low, resulting in USDCHF going bullish.
- Low volatility as the market waits for Durable Goods Orders MoM, New Home Sales, and FOMC Minutes report.
- Could result in a sideways market in the long run, as people couldn't conclude the direction of the market. Technically speaking both the bulls and the bears are equally strong right now, so let's see how the reports would go.
What I would do?
- If the reports got a bullish response, I'll go for breakeven and reconsider going bullish. vice versa.
Happy Trading! Good luck!
VIX overextending the trendSPX has been destabilizing both VIX and DXY - both of them fell out of their trajectories because of the euphoric and arogant push of the market - I don't expect the blow-off top to happen - unless SPX breaks ~4015 area - until then I remain bearish.
Expecting all markets to retrace today.
VIX is getting for its own prime timeWatching 20-21 zone for a support.
Historically VIX 20 zone is the bear/bull line.
I expect that to me either tested or even broken for a fake move down and then start to explode.
When VIX is at 45+ watch for the market capitulation. Ideal target for the VIX is 65+ early next year.
When its moving above 35 and especially 45, no no longs for me period, only sell the rips (if there will be any)
Im in with Apr VIX 35 calls, will add tomorrow and on the 28th