Bank Of England Expected To Hold Rates At 16-Year HighThe Bank of England announces its latest interest rate decision on May 9th. While the central bank is not expected to alter interest rates, investors will be focusing on two key questions that they hope the accompanying report and press conference will answer:
• When will interest rates start to fall in 2024?
• Where does the Bank see inflation going this year?
March saw a notable dovish shift from the BoE, hinting at a potential future cut. This marked the first time in the current cycle that no members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a hike. In March, Bailey said it was reasonable for investors to bet on rate cuts this year.
The critical question is when the central bank will start cutting rates.
Market pricing suggests August, and the OECD report predicts the third quarter will be the most likely period, with rates expected at 3.75% by the end of 2025.
The UK now has to get up to speed with the changed expectations for interest rates, which can be summed up as higher for longer. Until recently, the Federal Reserve was expected to take the lead and cut interest rates this spring, with other central banks to follow. However, the Fed is now signaling that rate cuts are not on the horizon, and it ruled out a rate hike at its meeting on May 1st. The European Central Bank could be the first to cut rates at its June meeting as inflation continues to fall in the eurozone.
The UK inflation picture is better than that of the US, but not by much. It is still witnessing some of the "stickiness" in inflation that has troubled Fed policymakers. However, UK inflation at 3.2% is still below that of the US, where the latest CPI reading was 3.5%. As the OECD pointed out this week, the UK economy is weaker than the US, so monetary easing could be less problematic and help stimulate parts of the economy. Investors have been building up bets against the pound as conviction grows that the Bank of England will start cutting interest rates by the summer, ahead of its US counterpart
Speculation amongst currency traders regarding a fall in the sterling has reached a 16-month high, data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows. Meanwhile, according to State Street, one of the world's largest custodian banks, asset managers have turned significantly bearish on the pound since March last year.
The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI. Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.
UK100 trade ideas
TRADE IDEA: Sell FTSE 100 IndexPrice at time of publication: 8380. The index is in a high bullish momentum phase, while trading in an overbought range. Traders should consider this a short to medium term countertrend trade idea where the reward-to-risk is starting to favour sellers. My preference is horizontal trend lines however, it may be worthwhile recognizing the diagonal channels, where the upper boundary could soon act as a short-term resistance range. These are the key technical drivers: (1) The price is overextended vs medium term moving averages; (2) Current Short Term Technical Rating: Overbought; (3) Current Medium Term Technical Rating: Overbought; (4) The steep price trend is at risk of correcting, further supporting the potential for a countertrend sell. As always, traders could consider the following if/when the share approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time Stop: Thursday, 08 August 2024.
TRADING LEVELS:
Entry: above 8430
Target: 8180
Stop-loss: 8545
UK100GBPWe anticipate an upmove based of the completed corrected pattern that formed.
The bullish momentum seems it will resume soon.
Trade with care use a stop loss.
UK100: Retracement Likely Before Bullish ContinuationHello Everyone,
The UK100 has been displaying strong performance. It's possible we could witness a pullback to the weekly support level before resuming a bullish trend. An early sign of this could be the daily support holding firm. If it does, we can anticipate further upward movement!
TradeWithTheTrend3344
UK100 Analysis: Stock Market Optimistic Ahead of Bank of EnglandUK100 Analysis: Stock Market Optimistic Ahead of Bank of England News
On Monday, the UK observed a bank holiday for May Day, and on Tuesday, the stock market demonstrated accumulated optimism.
The FTSE index (UK100) today surpassed the 8300 mark. Additionally:
→ The opening occurred with a bullish gap;
→ On the daily chart of UK100, today the RSI indicator is in overbought territory, unseen since the beginning of 2023.
One of the significant drivers of bullish sentiments could be considered events on Thursday – at 14:00 GMT+3, news from the Bank of England is expected: market participants will learn about the decision on the interest rate, followed by a press conference.
As Econoday writes:
→ A decision to cut interest rates is unlikely at Thursday's meeting, with autumn being seen as the most probable period for a 0.25-point rate cut from the current level of 5.25 points.
→ Members of the rate-setting committee are concerned that inflation is slowing down too slowly. However, the trend is in the right direction, and the Bank of England has already stated that the 2 percent target does not necessarily need to be reached before interest rates are lowered.
Perhaps the anticipation of signals for monetary policy easing instils confidence in the bulls, but how sustainable can the current growth be?
As shown by the technical analysis of the UK100 chart:
→ The price is moving within a long-term ascending channel (shown in blue). Meanwhile, its upper boundary is around the price level of 8500, which could serve as resistance if market sentiment remains equally optimistic;
→ On the other hand, the price of UK100 is vulnerable to some correction. If it occurs, former resistance at 8200 may provide support. As indicated by the violet lines, successful tests of former resistance underscore the bullish nature of the market.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
UK100 ABCD pattern forming. A possible Short Entry UK100 is forming an ABCD Pattern is this a sign of Bearish Reversal or it will continue the Rally. Considering Bearish Divergence we might take a possible short entry with Sell stop setup. Not a Financial advice just DYOR.
FTSE100 Will it reach 8213 points?The European trading day has started in a session of mixed sentiment on Friday. Investors are still digesting Apple's US corporate results and awaiting reports on unemployment ratios in Europe, with Spain and Italy being the highlights. In the afternoon, U.S. unemployment rates, non-farm payrolls and manufacturing production data (PMI) are expected to be released. At the opening the European indices as we said have traded unevenly, DAX opened with +0.2% up, the CAC40 and IBEX35 with -0.3% and -0.26% down respectively, and the FTSE 100 literally flat.
Looking at the chart, the FTSE100 index (Ticker AT: UK100) has been looking to break the highs barrier since it started a strong move on April 25, until it has topped three times on April 29 and 30 and today in the Asian pre-market. Today is not expected to be the day where the index will break out again. If we look at the trading volume bell, its formation is a double bell indicating two well marked prices and the current most traded one is in the 8,163 points zone slightly below the high of 8,213.55 points. Its second POC zone is well below at 8,050 points.
On April 30 there was an overbought RSI spike which led to an opposite overbought spike on May 1. The market today is on the verge of candy to see if it breaks that sequence of resistances today. Or else it falls back to the indicated zone. There is a good chance that a sharp correction will bring the index value back to the indicated price average today or early next week.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
UK100 index fall MaySo we can take entry at the break of neckline as that point will confirm trend reversal.
Gartley 222 in FTSEWe have an opportunity in the form of a Gartley 222. At the moment all Indeces are under sessling pressure so overal market condition supports.
UK100: Near-Term Dip, Long-Term BullishHello Everyone,
The UK100 is anticipated to decline to approximately 8042 unless the weekly pivot point serves as a support. Looking ahead, the long-term outlook remains optimistic and is projected to remain bullish.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
UK100 DUMP ITX2 sell postions on UK100 both targets and SL visible. BOS has occurred in a breakdown of the trend line and smaller TF double top allowed for a safer based entry
FTSE 100 : HIGH IN THE SKY- The market still trades above a bullish trend line since mid-February 2024, strongly helped by a decreasing Pound Sterling. The mid-term trend is bullish for UK equities.
- Since the 3rd impact on its bullish trendline at the end of last week, the market has rallied to an hall-time high above 8,000pts.
Since the impact on the 8,200pts mark, we can notice a slowdown of the short-term bullish acceleration. Indeed, new highs are registered with less and less strength, a situation clearly confirmed with the bearish divergence from the MACD indicator.
Very short-term moving averages remain bullish, acting as dynamic support, while the market currently fails to clear the 8,200pts level for a second time in a row.
- The mid-term situation stays bearish for the market. However, on a very short-term view, all leads to a market correction.
The bullish trend slowdown taking place in uncharted territory may be the sign that some investors want to take some profit out.
If that happens to be proven in the next few session, the market will be likely to test the newly established floor around 8,045pts, with 8,152pts and 8,112pts as intermediate support zones, before registering new highs.
Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
FTSE Target hit. Can it go even higher?FTSE100 (UK100) hit today our 8150 Target, which we set a month ago (March 20, see chart below):
Since last week the 1W candle closed (much) higher than the February 2023 Resistance, we see the pattern continuing its strong resemblance with the October 2022 - February 2023 Bullish Leg. The long-term pattern continues to be a Channel Up and its previous Bullish Leg topped just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, making its technical Higher High.
As a result, our Target is 8350 (just below the new 1.382 Fib extension). Note that if that Fib level breaks, we may even see accelerated growth as high as to complete +20% from the bottom.
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UK100 - H&S a potential bearish reversalUK100 was bullish mood so far. But a possible head and shoulder pattern forming at the top might change its mood and reverse the trend. We have a buying opportunity at break of neck line. Lets see how price unfolds!
UK100A double top is a technical chart pattern that signals a potential reversal of an uptrend. It occurs when the price of an asset reaches a high point, retraces, then rallies back to a similar high before reversing downward. The pattern resembles the letter "M" and is formed by two consecutive peaks at approximately the same level, with a trough (the retracement) between them. Traders often interpret the double top as a bearish signal, suggesting that the upward momentum has weakened and that a downward trend may follow. It's essential for traders to look for confirmation through other technical indicators or price action before making trading decisions based solely on the double top pattern.
KOG - FTSE Quick post from us on FTSE. We're looking at these higher levels for a RIP potential, if we can get it we're looking to take this down into our active targets.
We'll update as we go along.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
UK100 index is showing trend reversal.Chart is showing bearish divergence.
Head & shoulder pattern is visible at recent HH which is also a bearish pattern.
So we can take entry at the break of neckline as that point will confirm trend reversal.
FTSE 100 Targets reminder. As it starts it's big moveAs described before
one of the worst index's to have been exposed to for decades
WHILST during rampant #UK inflation
The FTSE did nothing to help you out.
Yet here we are about to see it get sent to 5 figures.
FTSE 100 pushes to record highs The FTSE 100 has reached a new record high after pushing through the bearish sentiment that has taken over global equities in the past few weeks. The index, which is made up of the biggest 100 companies in the UK, closed above the previous high of 8,045 on Monday following a 1.6% rise on the day. The rally gathered strength on Friday when the index saw some whipsaw momentum, dropping 1.45% during the Asian session before bouncing 2.4% and ending the day 0.8% higher.
Concerns about geopolitical tensions have eased slightly over the past few days which has allowed global equities to halt the recent declines and attempt to regain the bullish momentum. But the FTSE 100 has been outshining its major peers, having found its footing earlier than the rest. A weaker pound has been helping, with the latest retail sales data offering more evidence of the weakening state of the UK economy, which increases the pressure on the Bank of England to start seriously considering cutting rates. The central bank is facing a tough balancing act of aiding growth whilst ensuring inflationary pressures do not spike up once again. With UK inflation now below the US for the first time in two years, markets are expecting the BoE to cut rates before the Federal Reserve, weighing on GBP/USD and keeping the FTSE 100 supported.
With regards to its constituents, Primark owner Associated British Foods (ABF) has been leading the gains this morning as it posted strong half-year results. Improving margins for its retail sector has boosted its share price to a new five-and-a-half-year high. Online supermarket Ocado is also on the list of biggest movers boosted in part by being named the fastest-growing firm in the Kantar supermarket data, but also pressured by investors to consider moving its listing to the US.
Technically, the bias remains upward in the medium term, with the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) still below 70. That said, the RSI is currently hovering around the level where pullbacks have started in the past, suggesting further pullbacks could still be on the cards. The weekly moving averages continue to be stacked in descending order, supporting continued bullish momentum, backed by the fact that the price has managed to push and hold above its long-term resistance of around 7,760.
