Nasdaq analysis: 11-Dec-2024Good morning, everyone! Today's Nasdaq analysis is designed to educate and empower. Use these insights to refine your price action trading strategy.
US100 trade ideas
Short-term pressure seen on USTECFundamental Perspective:
USTEC pared recent gains as Oracle's (ORCL) disappointing earnings and Nvidia's (NVDA) ongoing scrutiny from Chinese regulators dampened investor confidence. Alphabet (GOOGL) surged after unveiling a quantum computing breakthrough.
However, lofty valuations and concerns over potential antitrust scrutiny of tech giants weighed on USTEC.
President-elect Trump has appointed Andrew Ferguson as FTC Chair, replacing Lina Khan. Ferguson could ease regulatory pressure on business mergers, potentially streamlining deal approvals while maintaining a tough stance on antitrust enforcement against tech giants.
This mirrors Trump’s first-term approach, with major lawsuits targeting big tech like Google (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META). The ongoing scrutiny of tech stocks could temper upward momentum in the USTEC.
Technical Perspective:
USTEC pared recent gains and formed a head-and-shoulders pattern following a break of the pattern's neckline near 21420. If the price sustains its bearish momentum below 21420, a further decline toward the 21200 support might occur. This support zone aligns with the ascending trend line and is a significant resistance-turned-support zone, as the price peaked in November before a further rally. Conversely, a break above 21420 could prompt a deeper pullback toward the next resistance at 21580.
Author: Li Xing Gan, CMT, CFTe,
Financial Market Strategist Consultant to Exness
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 10 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None, but tomorrow is CPI
News - None
Directional bias - BUY. The M TF is very bullish and until there is a reversal pattern eg. DT on a high TF (like the D TF at least), I continue to hold my buy bias.
Morning analysis:
M TF - very bullish
D TF - Price is right at the neckline area (marked in green) at time of writing this morning. If candles start closing below neckline towards the mushroom, Nas will turn bearish, because then a day DT has formed with the neckline broken down (change the D TF chart to a line chart and it will be easily visible). D fib retracement levels were broken down yesterday, in other words bulls were not able to overcome the bears at these levels and bears push down past these levels. Now only W retracement levels remaining. W 0.382 fib level is 2800 pips down (at time of writing in the morning). Bulls last defense against the bears is the D neckline (marked in green) and a strong D support level, exactly at the D neckline. So this is the level were bulls will have to step in if they do today.
4H TF - Shrinking red candles at C. indicate a loss of bearish momentum. Hoping that bulls will push up from the green support / neckline. Drawn in the SELL fib levels because these will be key take profit levels. Sell fib drawn from swing high at B. to swing low at A.
As the day progressed:
As the morning progressed a falling wedge pattern formed on the 1H TF, as marked by the thick pink lines.
Entered a buy at the hand icon, when price broke upwards on the 15min TF - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - Falling wedge pattern formed on 1H TF, right above key support. Pattern broken upwards, indicating that price is ready to move upwards
2. S&R - Green line represents D Neckline and key D support area. On the 1H TF, price is reacting to the 100 EMA, indicating that the torquiose EMA line is acting as dynamic support.
3. Trend - Buy is in the overall bullish trend of Nasdaq. Also the temporary downtrend line (the top pink line of the market pattern) is broken, indicating that price is ready to move upwards
4. Fib - None
5. Candlesticks - Shrinking candles on the 4H, indicating loss of bearish momentum
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line. I was willing to risk more today because it might have come down one last time to test the green line, this was purely based on my feeling, which luckily turned out not be true.
Luckily I had zero draw down and price shot up.
I took partial profits at the top hand icon (because that was TP2 on the buy fib (as drawn) and then closed almost all the rest of my position at the blue arrow (when a strong DT started forming on the 15min TF).
I left a runner open, just in case I could possibly benefit from a push up at CPI tomorrow, but this was taken out at entry ultimately.
Majority of my profits was about 1000 pips.
Stats:
The total bullish move for the day was +- 1575 pips:
I captured 63% of the total move (I'm happy with that).
Amazing to see how price reacted to the sell fibs today. Fib levels are real baby!
P.S. A note from yesterday's trading....I took a loss of 800 pips yesterday (I tried twice and hit SL twice). I was pretty bummed about it and didn't post :(
Won't be trading CPI tomorrow, because I feel I cant stack the probabilities in my favour! See ya Monday!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Tomorrow's CPI is probably going to give SP500 the pullback S&P500 pullback is due
Tomorrow's CPI will give it the momentum to sell.
NAS 100 BREAKER BLOCK SHORT! With Price action giving us strong rejection wicks at our area of interest, breaking through the Swing low (Break & Retest set up), along with sweeping buy side liquidity formed at the Daily support level.
Price is poised for a pull back to the breaker block (Structure Low). If we receive a Bearish confirmation, once price reaches the Breaker Block. This would be a good and confident short entry. Watch your risk as we are still above the subjective Bullish Trend line
Take profit 1 at The FVG 21,245
Take profit 2 (Stretch Goal) is the 38.2 Fib retracement level.
* If we see a 38.2 retracement this should be a rejection off of the subjective "Bullish Trendline"
** Volume is giving us a great push down from the breaker block, Also just above TP2 is another area of great volume that could server as potential support.
Concepts used:
Structure
Volume
Price Action
Fibs
ICT
NAS100_SHORT OPPORTUNITYTECHNICAL OUTLOOK AT 4H
1. Bearish Divergence
2. At Potential Reversal Zone
3. Head & Shoulders Pattern which is a reversal pattern
TRADE PLAN:
Take entry at the break of Neckline of H&S pattern and ride it till Projected value.
Sell setupTrendline break out.. Retested on the new support trendline for the downside.. Observe and trade safe be blessed
NASDAQ: Buy near the 4H MA50.Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.360, MACD = 259.490, ADX = 43.763) as it remains within the medium term Channel Up. The recent bearish wave is correcting the uptrend towards the 4H MA50, which if technically holds, should give way to the new bullish wave. The 4H RSI is headed towards its S1 Zone, which is the buying level so you can time the entries acccordingly. Our target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 22,000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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NAS100 afternoon updateTechnical analysis of NAS100.
Update on proposed ending diagonal. Price doesn't seem likely to tag either of the median (red) lines of pitchforks drawn, a bearish sign implying price will return to 20309.1 and eventually to 18297.4.
Count is valid with price below 22100.4. If count is correct, would expect impulsive price action back towards 5 August low.
US 100 ShortThe NASDAQ index appears to be forming a Head and Shoulders pattern, which is a classic bearish reversal signal. A potential short position can be considered if the price breaks below the neckline, currently around 21,360.
NASDAQ H3 | Market View Potential for a bearish pullback on the NASDAQ H2 which could lead to a price movement towards the support level at 21.400
NADAQ strategy - Next NFP I hit final 5° wave target.
I think there will be possibility for a rebound of index until 21k area
Thia area means retest of minor support area (1° wave) and also 0,5 rebound of last long leg
Tomorrow we will have the NFP.. if it will suggest a potential stop of interest rate reduction we can see this short.
us100 longus100 long
Please don't be greedy
ENTRY : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG position
above red line for SHORT position
INSTRUCTIONS:
For risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
Correction to the downside developing US100 has been in a bullish trend for some time, but now this momentum seems to be fading each time the indices tries to go up higher. As price action is currently developing, a potential drop will happen if the indices fails to find stability above 21600. Alternatively, finding upward strength above this mark, the bullish move will resume further.
USNAS100: Consolidation with Key Breakout levelTechnical Analysis
The price is currently consolidating between 21535 and 21420, awaiting a breakout.
Bullish Scenario: Stability above 21535, confirmed by a 1-hour or 4-hour candle close, could push the price higher toward the all-time high (ATH) at 21675.
Bearish Scenario: As long as the price trades below 21535, it may retest 21420. A break below 21420 will confirm a bearish trend, with the next target at 21220.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 21535
Resistance Levels: 21675, 21820, 22020
Support Levels: 21420, 21220, 21150
$NDQ short potential TVC:NDQ could be building bearish momentum after weeks of aggressive bull run. We might see a correction to 21,263 if 21,623 holds. The best entry for shorts would be 21,543
Nasdaq for buysThe Nasdaq has started December strong, continuing its upward momentum from November, driven by a favorable market outlook. Key factors include cooling inflation, expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, and robust earnings growth, particularly in the technology sector. Mega-cap tech stocks, such as Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta, remain leading contributors to the Nasdaq's strength, supported by bullish revenue growth predictions.
NASDAQ Approaches Key Support: Bullish Momentum Likely to PersisThe NASDAQ is approaching its ascending trendline support, which could serve as a potential bounce point to sustain the bullish momentum and drive new highs. There are no significant bearish signals, suggesting that buying on dips remains a viable strategy for targeting further upside.
US100 - 1H - Short Setup to $21,000 (Technical Analysis)The CAPITALCOM:US100 bounced from the upper side of it's wedge where it marked it's new ATH. On the way up we opened two gaps (red in the chart) which are still left to get closed. We also see a RSI divergence which implies we've seen the top for now and are heading lower (at least for the time being).
Current targets would be the support at $21,184, then the trendline of the current wedge at around $21,000 and a bit lower the bigger support zone at around $20,600. If we break above $21,600 this short setup is denied.
Target Zones
$21,184 (Gap Close)
$21,000 (Trendline)
$20,600 (Bigger Support Zone)
NAS100 Long This trade is with the H4 trend
There is a very strong movement up with indices these past few months
M15 and M30 are oversold and there are multiple bottoms with divergnece
Stop loss of 100 pips
US 100 Trade LogUS100 Long Setup (1H)
Trade Logic:
- Entry: Long within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) located in the discount zone relative to this timeframe.
Confluence Factors:
- Bullish Momentum: The market is strongly bullish, with price action consistently breaking resistance and forming higher highs.
- Relative Aggression: While the FVG is in a discount zone on the 1H timeframe, higher timeframes do not confirm the same, making this a relatively aggressive trade.
- Supportive Context: Recent pullback aligns with the FVG, offering a potential continuation opportunity as buyers step in.
- Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2 RRR with a tight stop-loss of 50 points, ensuring disciplined risk management.
- Target: TP1 at the next intraday resistance; TP2 near psychological levels like 15,500.
Macro Context:
- Market Sentiment: Strong risk-on sentiment in equities as major indices rally, supported by favorable economic data and dovish central bank tone.
- Tech Strength: Nasdaq constituents leading the charge with inflows into growth and tech sectors, further reinforcing bullish momentum.
- Volatility: VIX remains low, indicating stable conditions conducive to continuation of bullish trends.
Additional Consideration:
While this setup is aggressive, the bullish momentum makes it a calculated risk worth attempting. Keep stops tight and monitor if price fails to hold the FVG. Reassess if higher timeframe resistance levels come into play, suggesting a larger pullback.
NAS100 SELL ANALYSIS RISING WEDGE PATTERN Here on Nas100 price form a rising wedge pattern and now trying to fall if line 20820.5 break then price is likely to go down and trader can expect profit target of 20269.6 and 19634.1 . Use money management.
US100 Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for US100.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 21,420.2.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 22,305.1 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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