ETH my notes for short termwaiting for a short time correction time. supports: 3500 - 3300 - 3050. then new ath process till october
not financial advices, notes for myself
ETHUSD.P trade ideas
EthusdLeading diagonal has formed a wave and now we see b as a flat.
If the price doesn't go below (a)3615, I think we may see c wave of (B).
It may come strong and quick
Is Ethereum going to push above this key resistance?Ethereum is knowcking against this key resistance area.
If it pushes above this $3750 area then it has a clear run to the previous all time highs of $4000.
RSI indicates overbought so it could indicate a reversal to the downside.
Key trendline is being honoured currently. However, a break of this trendline may indicate the move upwards to the previous all time high.
Watch this space over the next couple of days.
Ethereum Bullish Rally IncomingIf Ethereum can break above that point and clear $2,840, this level will turn into a major support, where fresh supply waits. However, a drop below the 200-EMA could lead the price to retest $2,400. A break below this level would shift momentum negative and risk a slide toward the April low near $1,500.
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ETHUSD - Decision TimeWhat do make of the current situation?
What if you are long?
Here's what to expect:
a) support at the U-MLH, further advancing up to the WL
b) open & close within the Fork. If so, there's a 95% Chance of price dumping down to the Centerline.
Taking 50% off the table is never bad.
50% money in the pocket if price falls down to the Centerline.
Or if it advances up to the WL, you still have 50% that generates profits.
Either way, you have a winner on your hands.
Don't let it dig into a Looser!
ETH Eyes Consolidation from Overbought ZoneFenzoFx—Ethereum pulled back from the daily bearish FVG. The recent candle closed with a long wick and flat body, reflecting market uncertainty. Momentum indicators remain in overbought territory, signaling a possible consolidation phase.
If resistance at $3,848.0 holds, the price may decline toward support at $3,461. However, the bullish outlook stays valid as long as ETH/USD holds above $3,848.0.
ETHUSD – Cracked at the TopETH broke sharply below $3,750 and sliced beneath the 200 SMA with strong volume. RSI slipped to ~41 and remains suppressed. Price tested the $3,655 demand zone and bounced slightly, but bulls are clearly losing grip. Any bounce below $3,730 is suspect for continuation shorts.
Ethereum D1 | Potential bullish bounceEthereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 3,470.65 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 2,980.00 which is a level that lies underneath a a pullback support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 4,027.15 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Dollar softens, Yen soars on BOJ normalization bets | FX ResearcThe US dollar got off to a soft start to the week, though thinner summer trading conditions have restrained activity across G10 and emerging markets. The Japanese yen stole the spotlight in G10 after the Ishiba coalition lost its upper house majority, fueling speculation about potential Bank of Japan policy normalization and political instability, which likely drove yen demand.
Meanwhile, positive market sentiment tied to a possible Trump–Putin meeting was overshadowed by skepticism about the sustainability of equity and Bitcoin rallies, given the sharp rise in US equity futures and bond market trends.
Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is intensifying, with Treasury Secretary Bessant questioning the Fed's credibility while also advocating for US–China trade talks and hinting at tougher terms for Europe. Despite calls from the administration and GOP figures for lower interest rates, the Fed anticipates price increases in August data.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada survey pointed to trade uncertainties and weak demand curbing inflation, with tariffs impacting corporate margins rather than consumers. On the fiscal side, the CBO estimates Trump’s tax cuts will add $3.44 trillion to the US deficit over the next decade—a significant but slightly reduced figure compared to earlier projections.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
Ethereum Metric Projections for $5,700-$7,500 RangeEthereum (ETH/USD) - Integrating Cowen's Cycle Top Insights: Butterfly Pattern & S&P Fractal in One Chart, Plus Risk Metric Projections for $5,700-$7,500 Range
I've consolidated key ideas from quantitative analyst Benjamin Cowen's recent analysis into a single visual framework for Ethereum (ETH/USD) on the weekly timeframe, as of July 21, 2025, with ETH hovering around $3,500 following its rebound from the "going home" phase earlier this year. By overlaying Cowen's bearish butterfly harmonic pattern and the S&P 500 fractal (1989-1992) directly onto the chart, I've made his structural predictions accessible in one cohesive view, highlighting potential cycle tops without needing separate tools for those elements. For the risk metric bands, which aren't plotted here, I've pulled in Cowen's dynamic projections below as a complementary layer. His base case dovetails with the chart's signals, pointing to a realistic top between $5,700 and $7,500 ahead of a possible 2026 bear market, barring significant economic shocks. Let's dive in.
1. Bearish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern: Core Structure and Targets (Integrated on Chart)
Drawing from Cowen's "butterfly effect" video, I've labeled the pattern (points X, A, B, C, D) right on the chart to show its Elliott Wave roots and reversal potential at highs.
X to A: The foundational low-to-high move from the early 2020s.
A to B: Culminating at the ~$4,850 peak (2021 ATH).
B to C: The pullback to ~$900 (2022 low), nailing the 0.786 Fibonacci precisely.
C to D: The ongoing rally, with C spanning the 0.382-0.886 range—Ethereum pivoted at ~0.382 first, then probed lower.
Minimum target per Cowen: A 1.618 extension from B lands at ~$5,700, a spot to consider lightening up.
Bolder projections: Extending to 2.24 from B (~$7,500) or 1.272-1.618 from X (~$6,000-$7,300).
This setup, triggered post-ETH's "home" drop in Q2 2025 (which floored ETH/BTC), remains intact on the chart and forecasts rejection at D, ushering in the marked "anticipated bear market."
2. S&P 500 Fractal Comparison (1989-1992): Historical Roadmap (Overlaid on Chart)
I've directly superimposed Cowen's favored fractal onto the ETH price action for easy comparison, capturing its "perfect" alignment down to small dips and surges.
Parallels: ETH's post-halving trajectory echoes the S&P's extended climb before peaking.
Outlook: Projecting to January 2026 (factoring in ~6 months of remaining bull phase per 4-year crypto rhythms), the fractal hints at a low-end top around $5,300.
Fuller extension: Should the uptrend stretch (mirroring ETH's delayed 2018 top relative to BTC), it could hit ~$7,500 pre-bear phase.
Cowen ties this to BTC's recurring bears in 2014, 2018, and 2022 (post-halving), suggesting ETH aligns similarly—expect ATH breaches (~$4,850) but tempered by fading cycle intensity.
3. Ethereum Risk Metric: Quantifying Overheating and Diminishing Returns (Separate Projections)
Cowen's proprietary 0-1 scale (0 low risk, 1 high) adds data-backed context, sitting at ~0.672 currently (0.6-0.7 band, signaling room for gains before excess heat).
Recurring setup:
ETH "homes" at 0.3-0.4 risk across cycles (Q4 2016, Q4 2019, Q2 2025), syncing with ETH/BTC lows and ATH-bound rallies.
Past peaks:
Touched 0.4-0.5 and 0.5-0.6 in 2017/2020; highs at ~0.7-0.9, with 2017 grazing 0.9-1 fleetingly and 2021 at ~0.8-0.9 before faltering.
Dynamic targets (evolving with price; assuming no 2020-like crash from unemployment jumps):
0.7 risk: ~$4,100 (close to range ceilings and ATH entry).
0.8 risk: ~$5,600 (cautious peak aligner with butterfly mins; limited historical dwell time).
0.85 risk: ~$6,600 (momentum-fueled midpoint if post-ATH strength holds).
0.9 risk: ~$7,700 (stretch goal; brief past visits, adjusted for cycle fade).
0.95 risk: ~$9,000 (euphoria territory; Cowen flags as exit signal, improbable baseline).
1.0 risk: ~$10,000 (absolute cap; theoretical, not expected amid history's ~4% time over 0.8).
This bolsters the $5,700-$7,500 as grounded, per Cowen: "Realistic because folks crave $10,000"—rooted in data sans overreach.
4. Key Chart Annotations Supporting the Outlook
Momentum/Volume: Carp Momentum showing divergence; declining volume on upswings (e.g., Vol 8.42M labeled).
Other Annotations: Recent drop: -2,652 (-60.64%) over 265-200d; projected declines: -3,983.89 (-81.89%) over 351 bars/274d, and -4,527.68 (-80.01%) over 31 bars/21d, -4,710.46 (-81.99%) over 31 bars/274d.
Core view: Momentum for $4,000-$4,850 breaks, but with potential consolidations or 20% dips en route (e.g., daily RSI heating up, possible August-September correction like 2017).
5. Cycle Top Predictions and Navigation Strategy
Confluence Range: $5,700 (safe, 0.8 risk/butterfly floor) to $7,500 (bold, 0.9 risk/fractal ceiling)—Cowen's "realistic" span, screaming sensibility over $10K hype.
Upside outliers: $9,000-$10,000 at 0.95-1 risk, but Cowen urges bailing there.
Horizon: Late 2025/early 2026 crest, then bear (regression retest like priors).
Cowen's Dynamic DCA Out: Sidestep top-guessing by scaling sales at bands—off original stack:
0.6-0.7 (~$3,500-$4,100 now): 1/10th.
0.7-0.8 (~$4,800 ATH): 2/10ths (30% total).
0.8-0.9 (~$5,700-$7,500): 3/10ths (60% total).
0.9-1 ($9,000+): Rest (4/10ths).
Strength-selling yields dip-buy cash, hodl remnant for surprises.
6. Trade Setup (Bearish Long-Term, Bullish Near-Term)
Long Entry: Buy dips to $3,000-$3,200 support, eyeing ATH push.
Short Entry: At $5,700+ on cues (bear engulf, >0.8 risk).
Stop Loss: Over $4,850 (bull) or $8,000 (bear void).
Take Profits: Layered—$4,800, $5,700, $7,500; bear lows $2,000-$1,500.
Risk: 1-2% trades; crypto vol demands caution. Cowen: No certainties, but patterns favor ATHs pre-drop.
Void: Volume-backed $8,000+ surge eyes $10,000+, scrapping bear case.
Not advice—DYOR on macros/ETH shifts. Cowen sees pattern repeats with softer peaks. Your ETH thoughts? Comment!
#ETH #Ethereum #CryptoCycle #BearishButterfly #PricePrediction
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ETH Season?Well, in all of its history Ethereum’s recent lows remind me the most of December 2019 while the recovery after reminds me the most of the bull rally after March 2020. Either way I think the time for ETH and crypto as a whole is very near. Here’s my charted roadmap. If BTC hit a new high and then some over a whole year already since it hit a new high, then how do we not expect ETH to do the same and probably amplified as well as certain alt coins too. Curious to see how this thesis plays out. Not financial advice
ETHUSD – Deploying Synthetic Capital as per VolanX Protocol📈 ETHUSD – Deploying Synthetic Capital as per VolanX Protocol
1H Chart | July 20, 2025
"No ducor, duco!"
(“I am not led, I lead.”)
🧠 Market Context:
Price is holding above the 50 MA, confirming upward momentum. Liquidity has been taken from prior internal highs, and price continues pushing into the premium zone above the 1.0 Fibonacci level.
🔧 VolanX Protocol Deployment Update:
✔️ Synthetic Block Order: Placed at $3,400, with precision according to Volan X synthetic injection model.
✔️ Regression Line: Sloping upward – momentum remains in favor of bulls.
✔️ Weak High Targeted: $3,850 zone approached with clear aggression.
✔️ Volume Uptick: Observed near FVG and mitigation zones – ideal for synthetic deployment timing.
📍 Key Zones:
🚩 Block Order Zone: $3,400
🎯 First Profit Target: $3,852 – $3,961 (Premium zone)
🟡 Ultimate Target: $4,259 – $4,419
🔵 Equilibrium Support: $3,328
💬 Narrative:
"We will book some profit, Regression line is up."
Price is behaving according to expectations. The 50 MA retest confirms the continuation bias, and we now monitor for the next volatility compression before expansion. Expect smart money to aim for the inefficiencies left near the $4,100–$4,250 level.
📊 Deployment Signal: LIVE
🧬 VolanX Engine: Active
📍 Next Review: Upon 1.382 fib reaction or volatility compression
#ETHUSD #VolanX #SyntheticCapital #SmartMoney #MomentumTrading #TradingStrategy #FVG #PriceAction #CryptoAnalysis
ETH is up about 50% Since June 2025Relying on the absolute intraday low from June to claim that ETH is “up 70%” is a textbook data‑skewing mistake often found in AI‑generated headlines. A more robust approach is to average prices over several days (or even a full week). On that basis, ETH has risen roughly 50% since June— not 70%. Don’t let a distorted headline push you into adding leverage through perpetuals just because your strategy’s returns lag spot performance; that reaction only compounds impermanent‑loss risk.
Inspired my Benjamin CowenWhilst this is also high speculation and to not be used to predict the market, using Benjamin Cowen's idea of using the SPX Index's 1990's timeframes and extending them to match the potential ETHUSD cycle.
You'll see how the early parts to the moves are near 1/1 of each other. Looking into the future, you'll also see that the SPX's moves interact with the middle part of the channel multiple times, and begins to decline in the potential bear market (yellow dashing lines). This also looks pretty convincing. Charts are so fascinating.
the Inverse Golden BullrunJust a joke maybe but here some considerations...
each peak is reached in 1/0.606 * previous cycle length, which is oddly close to the inverse of the golden ratio. The Q1 peak in 2024 seems to have occurred oddly in advance.
Resistance of bear markets can be found at a common focal points and all have an angle of approx 20° on the linear scale.
this inverse golden bullrun will produce a very turbolent market with a new local top in 2025. This seems reasonable considering the whole global situation, crypto narrative, oversaturation and how we got rejection before breaking the past ATH.
the overall superstructure could break out or be confirmed after next "inverse golden bullrun"
oddly again, should the breakout occurr, it would happen around 1/3rd of the triangle, which is typical for those structures.
overall, not bullish nor bearish, don't hate.
most certainly mostly wrong ;)
not a financial advice, just for fun.
8 straight days of green candles for Ethereum. This 8 days long rally for Ethereum is bound to see a retracement. I've taken some profits and am sitting on the side to see that dip before redeploying my capital.
+4K Incoming FastI think ETH just melts up from here to ~4100 short term high. We're seeing inflows into the ETH ETFs that are larger than the BTC ETF inflows now.
ETH-Update from February post at $2700, $3300 target hitTook some time after the big dip down to $1500 in April to get back into the ascending macro parallel price channel to eventually hit our goal of $3300.
Totally worth the wait.
ETH 1.0It is important not only to sell on time, but also not to return money to the market when it seems like the best opportunity to make money...
SellRejection Level
Daily Volume
Market Structure Shift
London Session
Trend Line Break
Untapped Order Point
ETH - consolidation breakout - BULLRUN 2025 CONFIRMEDHistorically, Ethereum tends to make very strong impulsive moves after long periods of accumulation.
Right now, we've been consolidating for over 1,500 days — and while no one expects it, a move to $10K or even $20K is not off the table. The chart structure suggests it's possible.
Take a look at the historical price action I marked: after long consolidations came powerful bullish rallies.
And yes — those consolidation phases occurred during bear markets,
while the breakouts and bull runs happened in 2017 and 2021, right when the major BULL RUNS started!
Will 2025 be the same? LET’S SEE! 🚀
ETHUSD Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for ETHUSD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 3,555.51.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 3,087.51.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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